Juror #2 reunites Nicholas Hoult and Toni Collette 20 years plus after the acclaimed About a Boy and it marks Clint Eastwood’s latest project at age 94. For reasons still unclear, it premieres Friday in approximately 50 theaters after debuting at AFI Fest. The legal thriller costars J.K. Simmons, Chris Messina, Zoey Deutch, Gabriel Basso, and Kiefer Sutherland.
The extremely limited release for Juror isn’t due to poor reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 92% with Metacritic at a 75. If Warner Bros had chosen to put some marketing muscle behind this, it might’ve been a midsize hit.
While Eastwood has helmed two BP winners in Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby and had other nominees with Letters from Iwo Jima and American Sniper, this courtroom tale just doesn’t seem to be a WB priority. The verdict is that awards voters will likely ignore it as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In the 50th season premiere episodes of Saturday Night Live this month, it has become clear that Bowen Yang has moved into the status of MVP. From taking on the role of VP candidate JD Vance or his Update appearance as viral hippo Moo Deng or as English pop star Charli XCX, it was one Yang showcase after another. He nabs the 34 spot on my top 50 cast members of all time.
He started as a writer in 2018 before joining as a Not Ready for Prime Time player the following year. Notable bits in the past half decade include appearing as the iceberg that sunk the Titanic, as notorious Congressman George Santos and playing the Straight Man to a fawning Sydney Sweeney. It probably won’t be long before Yang gets his feature film or TV series centered around his considerable talents. Hopefully we’ll have him on SNL for a while longer. #33 will be up soon!
Robert Zemeckis reunites with his Forrest Gump leads Tom Hanks and Robin Wright some 30 years after that Best Picture recipient with the family drama Here this weekend. My detailed prediction post on the newcomer can be accessed here:
Here is likely to be the sole newbie to place in the top five. Unlike Gump, there’s no awards buzz for this. A debut in the mid single digits could mean anywhere from second to fifth.
Tom Hardy’s third and reportedly final go-round in The Last Dance had a subpar start (more on that below). With a troubling B- Cinemascore, a 60 percent plus percentage drop appears inevitable. That should mean mid or high teens for an unremarkable repeat performance in 1st place.
Holdovers Smile 2, The Wild Robot, and Conclave should fill out the rest of the high five and here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Venom: The Last Dance
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
2. Smile 2
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
3. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $5 million
4. Here
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
5. Conclave
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (October 25-27)
As mentioned, viewers were not grooving to Venom: The Last Dance. The comic book based sequel set in Sony’s Spider-Man Universe took in $51 million. That’s under my $62.3 million take and well below 2018’s Venom ($80 million) and 2021 follow-up Let There Be Carnage at $90 million. Crowds have clearly soured on the franchise.
The news wasn’t great for Smile 2 either. The horror sequel was second with $9.5 million and that represents a 59% plummet. Its 2022 predecessor only experienced an 18% decline in weekend #2. While I didn’t think that would occur, I had this pegged at $15.6 million during its follow-up frame.
The Wild Robot was third with $6.8 million compared to my $7.5 million call. The animated hit has taken in $111 million in five weeks.
Oscar hopeful Conclave with Ralph Fiennes was fourth with a better than anticipated $6.6 million. Edward Berger’s papal succession drama blew past my $4.8 million projection.
The Andrew Garfield/Florence Pugh romance We Live in Time added nearly 2000 screens and was fifth with $4.8 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as its total reached $11 million.
Finally, Terrifier 3 was sixth with $4.7 million (I said $5.4 million) for a robust $44 million in three weeks.
Inventor Wallace and his canine pal Gromit are no strangers to the Academy Awards. Two of their tales (1994’s Wallace & Gromit: The Wrong Trousers and 1996’s A Close Shave) won the Oscar for Best Animated Film while 2010’s A Matter of Loaf and Death was nominated. 2005’sfeature-length The Curse of the Were-Rabbit took home gold for Animated Feature, beating out Corpse Bride and Howl’s Moving Castle.
Nearly 20 years after the previous long form Wallace pic, Vengeance Most Fowl premiered at AFI Fest and will stream on Netflix beginning January 3rd. A limited December theatrical bow makes it Academy eligible. Early reviews are strong with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic. Nick Park (the legendary animator who created the W + G flicks in addition to Chicken Run and Shaun the Sheep) and Merlin Crossingham co-direct. Voiceover work comes from Ben Whitehead, Peter Kay, Reece Shearsmith, and Lauren Patel.
I’ve had this ranked fourth or fifth in my Animated Feature rankings for months and don’t see that changing after the initial reaction. I would put it behind The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, and Memoir of a Snail in terms of victory possibility. While it’s no guarantee it makes the final cut, the past history indicates its chances are quite strong. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Japanese journalist Shiori Itõ recounts her own rape case in the documentary Black Box Diaries, out this weekend. Based on her memoir, it first premiered at Sundance to rave reviews and has continued to play the stateside and international fest circuit. It was acquired by MTV Documentaries.
The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 98% with 87 on Metacritic. The doc branch of the Academy can often leave surprising omissions on their shortlist for their best feature. If Diaries makes the shortlist, I suspect it gets into the final five in contention and my forecasts over the last past several weeks have reflected that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Dennis Miller and Jon Lovitz were the only SNL cast members to survive a disastrous 1985-86 season. It was the year Lorne Michaels came back after being away from the program for five years. He had plenty of wrong instincts that year, but putting Dennis Miller at the desk of Weekend Update wasn’t one of them. Fun fact: the gig was originally slated to go to Lovitz.
Miller’s irreverent and smart alecky style fit perfectly for six years while a murderer’s row of cast mates (Dana Carvey, Jan Hooks, Kevin Nealon, Lovitz included) joined in for segments. He also started the trend of Update anchors getting their own talk shows (Jimmy Fallon, Seth Meyers, and even OG anchor Chevy Chase). #34 will be up shortly!
30 years ago, Forrest Gump was nominated for a whopping 13 Oscars and won six including Picture, Director (Robert Zemeckis), Actor (Tom Hanks), and Adapted Screenplay. A Forrest reunion is occurring on November 1st when Here opens. Zemeckis is behind the camera for the family drama that stars Hanks and his Gump costar Robin Wright. It is written by that film’s screenwriter Eric Roth.
Debuting at the AFI Fest this weekend, the gimmicky pic is based on a 2014 graphic novel from Richard McGuire. Set over many decades in a fixed camera location spot (primarily a living room), the supporting cast includes Paul Bettany, Kelly Reilly, Michelle Dockery, and Gwilym Lee.
Awards lightning was not anticipated to strike twice with Here and early reaction has solidified that notion. The Metacritic score is just 46. Any hope for above-the-line noms have dissipated. Where Here could contend is Visual Effects where the de-aging work sees Hanks and Wright as teens. Some of the first reviews say these effects can be distracting and still have a ways to go to be convincing. Yet I wouldn’t discount the possibility of a VE nod considering 2019’s The Irishman made the cut and the work here is generally seen as an improvement. There’s also some praise for Alan Silverstri’s score, but that race may be a little crowded for Here‘s inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Bobby Moynihan is one of those SNL performers that I feel never gets proper due for his contributions to the show. He comes in at #36 on my top 50 cast members list. Moynihan spent nine seasons creating unique characters and side splitting impressions.
The most well-known is Drunk Uncle on the Weekend Update segments where his rants were a consistent highlight. Some other faves of mine include Vinny Vedecci Jr., son of Bill Hader’s Italian talk show host who asked clueless questions to celebrities and inevitably burst into tears. There’s also Riblet, who did Update bits as Michael Che’s old high school buddy and second-hand news reporter Anthony Crispino. His impressions of Snooki from Jersey Shore and Mindy Cohn from The Facts of Life also warrant mentions. #35 will be up soon!
Reuniting the director, screenwriter, and two leads from Forrest Gump some three decades after the Best Picture winner’s release, Here is present in multiplexes on November 1st. The high concept family drama utilizes a stationery home camera shot spanning decades of time. Robert Zemeckis directs and Eric Roth penned the script. Tom Hanks and Robin Wright headline a cast that includes Paul Bettany, Kelly Reilly, Michelle Dockery, and Gwilym Lee.
The collection of talent mentioned above might have generated big bucks if it arrived in the decade following Mr. Gump’s global treks. I suspect this may struggle to find the older audience it seeks. There has yet to be any awards buzz and that could have helped.
While Hanks recently had an adult themed hit via A Man Called Otto, it had the benefit of being based on a well-known novel. Here‘s best hope is that viewers who do see it will tell their friends about it and that it plays into Thanksgiving. That could be a stretch as I’m forecasting this will only reach a troubling mid single digits.
Tom Hardy and his title character alter ego are back for the third and allegedly final time when Venom: The Last Dance hits multiplexes this weekend. The only sub franchise in the Spider-Man Universe doing brisk business and producing sequels (sorry Morbius and Madame Web), Kelly Marcel directs. The supporting cast includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Juno Temple, Rhys Ifans, Peggy Lu, Alanna Ubach, and Stephen Graham.
Critics haven’t been overly kind to Hardy and company. Part 1 from 2018 managed only 30% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 35 on Metacritic. 2021 follow-up Venom: Let There Be Carnage fared better with 57% on RT and a 49 Metacritic. Dance is currently falling between those numbers with a 41% Tomato meter and 42 on MC.
Even though Hardy gives it his bonkers all in this series, don’t put money down on a Best Actor nomination unless you plan to lose. As I wrote three years ago with Carnage, Visual Effects is really the only awards play. Neither of Dance‘s predecessors nabbed a nod in VE and I wouldn’t expect this one to contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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