For my #38 entry on the Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time, let’s give it up for Rachel Dratch! The Massachusetts native came up at Second City in Chicago alongside Tina Fey before being cast on the legendary sketch show.
Appearing during one of the show’s peak eras, noteworthy impressions included Calista Flockhart and Arianna Huffington. Her upbringing came into play with Boston teen Denise while her “Love-ahs” sketches with Will Ferrell were a bizarre highlight.
Yet any SNL fan knows Dratch’s signature contribution was the brilliant Debbie Downer that resulted in one of the all-time character breaking segments in history. When it comes to characters that have stayed in the consciousness of the public, it’s way up there. #37 will be up soon!
Today we say hello to the buh-bye guy with David Spade at #39 on my Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time. Dana Carvey and Spade teamed up for a podcast where they interview cast members and hosts from the show’s 50-year history. It’s a must listen for fans.
Spade made his own history in studio 8H. Whether in the aforementioned Total Bastard Airlines sketch or as a Gap Girl, doing a first-rate Michael J. Fox impression or alongside Chris Farley in Update bits, his six years on the program were fruitful. His best moments may have been toward the end of his run with his Hollywood Minute/Spade in America segments where he skewered celebs in his signature snarky style. He even managed to anger SNL legend Eddie Murphy when he’d experienced a few flops in a row. #38 will be up soon!
Aidy Bryant might not have had many signature characters on SNL during her decade on the show, but she was certainly a consistently solid presence. That especially applies to her Li’l Baby Aidy persona seen in some Digital Shorts or the creepily flirtatious Melanie.
She was part of a golden age of recent female cast members that includes Kate McKinnon, Vanessa Bayer, and Cecily Strong. They haven’t been on this list yet, but Bryant leads off that impressive group. #39 will be up soon!
Academy hopeful Conclave materializes in theaters on October 25th. Based on the Robert Harris novel, Ralph Fiennes headlines the thriller as a cardinal in charge of selecting the new Pope. Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Sergio Castellitto, Isabella Rossellini, and Lucien Msamati costar. Edward Berger, following up his nine-time Oscar nominee All Quiet on the Western Front from 2022, directs.
With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 78 on Metacritic, Conclave is expected to vie for multiple awards races including Best Picture. That buzz could assist in bringing in an adult audience. I wouldn’t be surprised if it starts out in the mid to possibly high single digits as it hopes for meager declines in later weekends. This forecast could change based on its final released screen count.
Conclave opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
For my Venom: The Last Dance prediction, click here:
Michael Keaton has trouble playing Mr. Mom forty plus years after Mr. Mom in Goodrich, out in limited fashion this weekend. From Hallie Meyers-Shyer, director of the Reese Witherspoon rom com Home Again, Keaton headlines the dramedy dealing with child rearing alongside Mila Kunis, Carmen Ejojo, Michael Urie, Kevin Pollak, and his Multiplicity costar Andie MacDowell.
Reviews are fairly decent with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes with some calling it crowd pleasing enough. Still drawing multiplex crowds, Keaton’s Beetlejuice Beetlejuice could be an awards player in tech races like Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects. Goodrich will not be vying for any prizes during the season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Tom Hardy is back in the dual roles of Eddie Brock and his sadistic otherworldly symbiote on October 25th with Venom: The Last Dance. The third entry in the franchise that began in 2018, Dance marks the directorial debut of Kelly Marcel. She co-wrote the original and solely penned the 2021 sequel Venom: Let There Be Carnage. The supporting cast includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Juno Temple, Rhys Ifans, Peggy Lu, Alanna Ubach, and Stephen Graham.
Six years back, Venom exceeded expectations with an $80 million opening weekend and $213 million total domestically. Three years later, forecasters assumed Carnage wouldn’t match up due to COVID complications. That turned out to be incorrect as the sequel amassed $90 million out of the gate. Its final stateside gross (rather remarkably) was also $213 million.
Bottom line: don’t underestimate this subsection of the Spider-Man Universe franchise. While Morbius and Madame Web struggled for eyeballs, I envision this premiering similarly to its predecessors. It may not match what came before, but low to mid 60s seems doable.
Venom: The Last Dance opening weekend prediction: $62.3 million
When Kevin Nealon departed Saturday Night Live back in 1995, his nine seasons marked the longest tenure on the show up to that point. That record has since been obliterated thanks to Kenan Thompson and others, but Nealon’s lengthy stint on SNL was fruitful.
Whether as Franz of Hans (Dana Carvey) and Franz fame or Mr. Subliminal or Bob Waltman (his clever take on Barbara Walters), Nealon had plenty of humorous moments in a cast era full of all-stars. Carvey, Phil Hartman, and others from the mid 80s to mid 90s will be seen later, but Nealon deserves to make the cut. While his time anchoring Weekend Update couldn’t match some others, his comedic timing is impeccable. On a side note, he’s one of the funniest talk show guests in the medium. Do yourself a favor and search “Kevin Nealon You Got a Minute”. #40 will be posted soon!
I struggled with whether Pete Davidson would make my list of SNL’s Top 50 Cast Members. He hasn’t always been my cup of tea. I’m not a particular fan of his standup. Ultimately he does get in for a couple of reasons.
The most obvious is that a solid portion of his material has been genuinely funny from his 8 years on the program. He started at the age of 20 and he’s most known for playing a version of himself. Oftentimes on Weekend Update bits, he would do just that and comment on his highly publicized relationships. Davidson, more than any other performer in the show’s history, is the kind of cast member we should expect in a reality show world. I’m not sure that’s a positive development, but Davidson shined often anyway.
This includes his movie reviewing alongside John Mulaney, his hilariously oblivious Chad, and his interpretations of Eminem tracks. #41 will be up soon!
Smile 2 looks to make horror fans happy this weekend while the Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh romantic drama We Live in Time debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Likely building upon the goodwill from its predecessor two years ago, Smile 2 should outpace the $22 million that Smile opened wide with. My mid to high 20s estimate puts it easily out front.
Time is hitting just 1000 venues and I’m projecting mid single digits before it expands even wider on October 25th.
Terrifier 3 got off to a terrific start (more on that below). Projecting its sophomore fall is tricky. I would think the unrated horror threequel might be front loaded, but I’m not sure it drops over 60%. It’s actually theaters so it may only decline around 50% and that’s good for a horror flick of this nature. That should put it in third as I foresee The Wild Robot only easing in the mid 20s and staying in second. A similar meager decrease for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should keep it in the top 5 in its seventh frame. Joker: Folie à Deux may manage fifth place though it should see another calamitous percentage fall. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if Transformers One manages to rise the five spot.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Smile 2
Predicted Gross: $27 million
2. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
3. Terrifier 3
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. We Live in Time
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (October 11-13)
Please note that Joker: Folie à Deux is not listed in my top 5 for its third go-round due to a historically awful sophomore weekend plummet. We’ll get to that in a second, but let’s focus on the other big story for now. Terrifier 3 wowed prognosticators with $18.8 million, ahead of my $14.4 million call. With a reported budget of $5 million, the grisly Art the Clown Christmas bloodbath solidified its franchise bonafides. You can expect a fourth cut in the near future.
The Wild Robot held in second with $14 million and surpassed my $11.7 million prediction. In its three weeks in multiplexes, the DreamWorks Animation adventure has amassed $84 million as it flies to nine digit territory.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third with $7.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week tally of $275 million as it looks to scare up $300M+ domestically.
Joker: Folie à Deux, after a disastrous enough premiere, was down an embarrassing 81% in fourth with $7 million. I was more generous in thinking it would only go down 75% with $9.5 million. The lambasted sequel has taken in $51 million in ten days and will struggle to reach $75 million stateside. As a reminder, its 2019 predecessor made $335 million in the U.S. and Canada and over one billion worldwide.
A slew of newcomers that didn’t star Art the Clown failed to fill seats. Lego themed Pharrell documentary Piece by Piece was fifth with $3.8 million compared to my $5.4 million projection.
Holdover Transformers One was sixth with $3.7 million for a muted $52 million in four weeks. I did not do an estimate for the animated Hasbro title.
Saturday Night, Jason Reitman’s recounting of the lead-up to SNL’s first episode in 1975, was seventh with a discouraging $3.4 million. I had it pegged in fourth with $7.8 million. SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT: check out the homepage on my blog to see my Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time posts. At press time, I’ve written entries for numbers 50-43 and they are being uploaded on a daily(ish) basis.
Manga sequel My Hero Academia: You’re Next was eighth with a meh $3 million, just over half of my $5.9 million prediction.
Finally, The Apprentice stumbled in 10th with $1.6 million (I went with $2.4 million). The story of Donald Trump rising to prominence in the 1980s did not attract curious onlookers.
After her costar Ana Gasteyer came in at #44 on my top 50 SNL Cast Members list, Cheri Oteri clocks in at #43. The former Groundlings performer created some wildly memorable characters in her half decade on the program including Collette Reardon and Rita DelVecchio. There’s also well-known sketches with Will Ferrell including the low intelligence hosts of Morning Latte and, of course, the Cheerleaders.
On the impression front, Oteri’s Barbara Walters was funny enough to rival Gilda Radner’s imitation. This top 50 list has already heavily featured members from the mid 90s to early 00s and that’s no accident. It’s one of the most fruitful eras of SNL and Oteri was a key part of it. #42 will be up shortly!
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