Oscar Predictions: Kiss of the Spider Woman

Bill Condon has directed Ian McKellen to an Oscar nod for 1998’s Gods and Monsters and Eddie Murphy to a nom and Jennifer Hudson to a victory for 2006’s Dreamgirls. The headlining trio for Kiss of the Spider Woman is hoping for the same.

This is the second cinematic version of the musical stage play and it has premiered at Sundance before a TBD release date later this year. The Argentinian set drama features Jennifer Lopez, Diego Luna, and Tonatiuh in the primary roles.

Early reaction is uneven with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and 55 on Metacritic. That’s different than some of the initial gushing social media reaction out of Park City. It begs the question of whether reviews are too mixed for it to be a Best Picture play and that is also TBD.

The cast, on the other hand, might stand stronger chances. This especially applies to Lopez and relative newcomer Tonatiuh (recently seen in Carry-On). One of the biggest surprises at the 92nd Academy Awards was J-Lo missing Supporting Actress for 2019’s Hustlers. Voters may look to rectify that snub here. As for Tonatiuh, the performer is inhabiting the same role that won William Hurt a Best Actor statue for Hector Babenco’s 1985’s first iteration. It will be interesting to see how category placement is determined by its eventual distributor as both could theoretically go lead or supporting.

Down-the-line competitions like Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, and Sound could be on the table with a dedicated campaign. That’s something this is likely to receive. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

January 31-February 2 Box Office Predictions

DreamWorks Animation looks for Dog Man to lap all competitors this weekend as the critically hailed horror pic Companion also opens. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be found here:

Dog Man Box Office Prediction
Companion Box Office Prediction

A spinoff of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, I have Dog performing right in range with its predecessor in the mid 20s. That should easily give it top dog status.

As for Companion, I’m thinking it’ll be runner-up. This latest scary movie starring Sophie Thatcher may perform similarly in the low double digits like her previous genre title Heretic did last November.

Flight Risk landed in 1st place this past frame in line with my expectations (more on that below). With a troubling C Cinemascore grade and poor reviews, I have it plummeting over 50% in its sophomore outing. That could mean a fall from 1st to 5th with holdovers Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days having significantly smaller declines.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

2. Companion

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

3. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

4. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $6 million

5. Flight Risk

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (January 24-26)

Mel Gibson’s action thriller Flight Risk with a balding Mark Wahlberg led all pics with $11.5 million, in line with my $11.3 million call. It’s a fairly ho-hum start during these January doldrums and, as mentioned, I look for it to lose altitude quickly.

Mufasa: The Lion King was second with $8.5 million, on target with my $8.7 million prediction. The Disney property bumped its tally to $220 million after six weeks.

One of Them Days with Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of complimentary buzz to a 32% dip in weekend #2. It took in $8 million to rise above my $6.8 million projection. The ten-day take is $25 million.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $5.3 million (I said $5.1 million) for a six-week showing of $225 million.

While I correctly called the 1-4 order, I whiffed on the rest of my top 6. Moana 2 was fifth with $4.1 million for $449 million after nine weeks.

Steven Soderbergh’s experimental haunted house tale Presence debuted in sixth with $3.3 million. I did not do a predictions post for it. Profitability should happen given its reported $2 million price tag.

Wolf Man flamed out in its second weekend in seventh with a 70% drop and $3.2 million. I was more generous at $4.6 million and it has grossed a mere $17 million.

Finally, Brave the Dark, the latest drama from Angel Studios, was 12th with a lowly $2.8 million. Once again, I was kinder with a $5.1 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscars: The Case of Anora

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

I will begin with the ten BP contenders and then alternate alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Sean Baker’s Anora kicks it off!

The Case for Anora:

The dramedy from auteur Sean Baker has turned out to be his awards breakout. Nominations wise it has landed everywhere it needed to in the precursors. This includes the Golden Globes with 5 nods as well as DGA, SAG, PGA, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. With a 93% Rotten Tomatoes meter and 91 on Metacritic, it sports five other Academy mentions and Mikey Madison is a threat to win Best Actress. It is likely the frontrunner for Original Screenplay. The other three noms are for Baker’s direction, Yura Borisov in Supporting Actor, and Film Editing.

The Case Against Anora:

Anora surprisingly went 0 for 5 at the Oscars. In Best Musical or Comedy, it fell short to Emilia Pérez with Demi Moore (The Substance) emerging over Madison in Actress while Conclave took Screenplay. From a genre and content standpoint, it’s not your “typical” BP recipient.

The Verdict:

There is no doubt that a narrative exists where Anora could take the top prize. That especially holds true if it gets the combo of Actress + Original Screenplay. Yet I’ve never had Anora ranked 1st in my BP forecast while others have and I’m skeptical that’ll change.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Brutalist…

Oscar Predictions: The Perfect Neighbor

Plenty of Oscar nominated documentaries are first screened at the Sundance Film Festival. As I mentioned in an earlier post, four of the five docs up in March’s upcoming ceremony were unveiled in Park City. Don’t be surprised if The Perfect Neighbor is in the mix next year.

Geeta Gandbhir’s effort focuses on the murder of Ajike Owens in 2023. It is told primarily through bodycam and other case footage. Early reviews are praising its innovative storytelling technique. This is next slated for South by Southwest. With the right campaign by its eventual distributor, Neighbor could be a nominee for the 98th Academy Awards. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: By Design

By Design from writer/director Amanda Kramer is likely to forever be known as the “Juliette Lewis is a chair” movie. The far out concept is exactly as it sounds apparently as her lead character makes that life altering decision. Mamoudou Athie, Melanie Griffith, Robin Tunney, Samantha Mathis, Udo Kier, Clifton Collins Jr., and Betty Buckley are among the supporting cast.

Premiering at Sundance, some critics are praising Lewis’s performance while reaction to the pic itself is more mixed (it has 75% on Rotten Tomatoes). In 1991, Lewis landed a Supporting Actress nod for her breakout role in Martin Scorsese’s Cape Fear remake. She hasn’t really been in the mix since and I doubt By Design will get her a seat at the awards table. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Sly Lives! (aka The Burden of Black Genius)

Questlove, from the hip hop group The Roots and bandleader on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, took Sundance by storm four years ago with Summer of Soul. That documentary focused on 1969’s Harlem Cultural Festival won the Audience Award and Grand Jury Prize for its genre at the Utah event. Over a year later, it would emerge as Best Documentary Feature at the 94th Academy Awards.

The filmmaker’s follow-up is Sly Lives! (aka The Burden of Black Genius) and it too has kicked off in Park City. Centered on the life and career of the enigmatic Sly Stone of Sly and the Family Stone, it’s slated for a Hulu streaming bow in February.

Word-of-mouth is encouraging though some critics are not as effusive as they were with Soul. Academy voters may take that into consideration when evaluating whether to take Sly higher into the awards convo next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Omaha

Omaha is not centered around the play calls of legendary quarterback Peyton Manning. Instead this Sundance premiere is a road trip drama anchored by John Magaro’s performance. He plays a father taking his kids (Molly Belle Wright and Wyatt Solis) cross country in a directorial debut from Cole Webley.

Reviews are complimentary thus far with particular attention paid to Magaro. Despite receiving acclaim in pics like First Cow, Past Lives, and September 5, he’s yet to have his Oscar bait role. A distributor would really need to work some magic for Omaha to be that project. Maybe some Indie Spirit attention is likelier. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Rose Byrne has been highly visible on the big screen in horror flicks like the Insidious franchise, superhero adventures such as X-Men: First Class, and multiple comedies including Bridesmaids, Spy, and Instant Family. The Australian actress received Emmy nods for her supporting role in the acclaimed Damages in 2009 and 2010.

She has yet to have a cinematic vehicle that’s driven significant awards talk. That may change this year with If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Focused on the not so great aspects of motherhood (there are comparisons to Nightbitch), Byrne is being lauded in Mary Bronstein’s second directorial feature. The eclectic supporting cast includes Conan O’Brien (who’ll be hosting the Oscars in a few weeks), Danielle Macdonald, Delaney Quinn, A$AP Rocky, and Christian Slater.

Premiering at Sundance, critics are already proclaiming Byrne’s performance as a 2025 highlight. I would expect distributor A24 to mount a serious campaign for Best Actress. The frenetic energy of the pic is being likened to Uncut Gems. It’s worth noting that 2019 A24 title did not end up getting Adam Sandler his first Academy nod despite a major push.

Obviously we’ll need to see how competition is as the months roll along, but I could envision Byrne being in the conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Diane Warren: Relentless

Diane Warren: Relentless is playing the festival circuit chronicling the prolific songwriter’s life. Directed by Bess Kargman, the documentary’s subject is no stranger to Oscar attention.

In 1987, Warren received her first Academy nod for Original Song with “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin (performed by Starship). Yesterday she nabbed her 16th (!) nomination with “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (performed by H.E.R.). In between there’s been well-known tunes like Celine Dion’s “Because You Loved Me” from Up Close & Personal and Aerosmith’s “I Don’t Wanna Miss a Thing” from Armageddon. In recent years, her tracks were nominated from pictures in 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. What do they all have in common? None of them took home the gold. The Academy did give Warren an honorary Oscar in 2022.

It would be quite a story if a doc about her life ended up earning Oscar glory. Apparently her well-known status as an Academy loser is covered. Don’t count on it happening. At 83% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviews are fine but not strong enough to be a contender. Yet there’s a caveat. “Dear Me” (sung by Kesha) is the main song in the pic and the full version was released today. You can hear snippets in the trailer. I wouldn’t be surprised based on history if it makes the cut in Original Song marking Warren’s 17th try. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Jimpa

Three years ago at the Sundance Film Festival, Sophie Hyde premiered her dramedy Good Luck to You, Leo Grande where Emma Thompson earned an Actress (Musical or Comedy) nom. It also rounded up a few BAFTA mentions. In 2025, the writer/director is back in Park City with Jimpa. Olivia Colman stars as a mom taking her non-binary teen to visit their gay grandpa (or Jimpa) in Amsterdam. John Lithgow is the title character with newcomer Aud Mason-Hyde as the teen. Costars include Tilda Cobham-Hervey, Daniel Henshall, Kate Box, Eamon Farren, and Zoë Love Smith.

Colman had a four year Oscar run where she achieved 3 nominations: 2018’s The Favourite (where she won), 2020’s The Father in supporting, and 2021’s The Lost Daughter in lead. Lithgow nabbed back-to-back mentions in Supporting Actor over four decades ago with 1982’s The World According to Garp and 1983’s Terms of Endearment (winning neither). Both of these roles seem like Academy bait.

However, initial reaction is mixed with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes. Perhaps its eventual distributor will mount a campaign. Lithgow, in what’s said to be quite a revealing role, seems due for one. His turn in Conclave last year turned out not to be that part as costars Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini were the focal points. I’m just not convinced this’ll be a major awards player at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…