James Sweeney directs, writes, and costars in Twinless which made serious waves at the Sundance Film Festival in recent days. Costarring Dylan O’Brien, Aisling Franciosi, Lauren Graham, and Chris Perfetti, the heartfelt comedy took the Audience Award in Park City. That’s a prize shared in recent years by Oscar players like Whiplash, Minari, and CODA.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic, this is one Sundance title that could still be talked about next awards season. Much like A Real Pain, the bulk of the buzz may go to Supporting Actor where O’Brien is drawing raves. Also like Pain, the original screenplay could generate some attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the first four features for BP and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The fifth is Dune: Part Two.
The Case for Dune: Part Two:
If the Academy wants to honor one of the most widely seen pics, Dune is second only to Wicked in that particular race. The sci-fi sequel stands at $714 million worldwide compared to Wicked‘s $718 million (and growing). Denis Villeneuve’s epic continuation of Frank Herbert’s novels made the BP cut at PGA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes.
The Case Against Dune: Part Two:
The misses are more glaring. Dune‘s additional Academy nods (Cinematography, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects) bring its total to five compared to the original’s 10. For perspective, part one from 2021 won six golden guys. Villeneuve didn’t get in Best Director (like with its predecessor) and the screenplay isn’t honored. Beyond what the Academy did, Dune failed to get into the BAFTA derby and Villeneuve was snubbed at the Directors Guild (unlike what occurred three years ago).
The Verdict:
In my previous Case Of posts for Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave, I’ve given them all at least a shot at taking the top prize. Dune: Part Two is the first entry where I don’t believe winning is a possibility.
The Grand Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival has been bestowed to eventual Best Picture nominees and one winner six times in the 21st century. That list includes 2009’s Precious, Winter’s Bone from 2010, 2012’s Beasts of the Southern Wild and 2014’s Whiplash, 2020’s Minari, and the victorious CODA of 2021. There’s plenty that never came close to Oscar’s radar such as Like Crazy or The Miseducation of Cameron Post and Nanny.
Atropia seems destined to fall into the latter grouping. The satire from Hailey Gailes unexpectedly took Park City’s top award. Alia Shawkat (known by many from Arrested Development), Callum Turner, Chloë Sevigny, and Tim Heidecker headline. The surprise nature of the Jury designation is due to subpar reviews. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 42% with a 46 Metacritic. That reaction is unlikely to allow this into the Academy’s consciousness. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Drew Hancock’s mix of horror, sci-fi and comedy Companion (out tomorrow) is drawing far stronger reactions that most January releases manage. Sophie Thatcher and Jack Quaid star with Lukas Gage, Megan Suri, Harvey Guillén, and Rupert Friend supporting.
With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic at 76, Warner Bros hopes to have a sleeper on its hands. Thatcher is turning into a Scream Queen with The Boogeyman and Heretic to her credit. The latter also drew thumbs up notices and probably came close to earning Hugh Grant a Best Actor nod.
Yet as an any Oscar follower knows, horror is a tough genre for performers to generate awards chatter. That should hold true in this case. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sony hopes horror fans watch Heart Eyes when it debuts February 7th. Josh Ruben directs the scary pic with comedic overtones. Olivia Holt, Mason Gooding, Gigi Zumbado, Michaela Watkins, Devon Sawa, and Jordana Brewster are included in the cast.
Set on Valentine’s Day, Christopher Landon (maker of Happy Death Day and Freaky) cowrote and coproduced. The studio would go gaga if this got anywhere near the mid 20s Happy Day opening weekend haul achieved in 2017.
Don’t look for that to occur. Heart Eyes seems more likely to debut in the $9.8 million range that sequel Happy Death Day 2U had in 2019. I’ll say it manages to get a little more.
Heart Eyes opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million
Ke Huy Quan, Oscar winner nearly two years ago for Everything Everywhere All at Once, headlines Love Hurts on February 7th. From director Jonathan Eusebio, the action comedy costars a fellow Oscar recipient in West Side Story‘s Ariana DeBose and a Super Bowl champion via Marshawn Lynch. The supporting cast also features Daniel Wu, Mustafa Shakir, Lio Tipton, and Quan’s fellow Goonie for life Sean Astin.
It is not, to my knowledge, an exploration of the history of “Love Hurts”, a song made famous by the Everly Brothers and covered by the likes of Roy Orbison, Nazareth, and Cher. That would probably be an interesting movie (just saying).
Speaking of the Super Bowl, that game is being played on Sunday the 9th and could certainly eat into Love’s potential. I’ll estimates this falls under $10 million.
Love Hurts opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our fourth hopeful is Conclave.
The Case for Conclave:
Edward Berger’s pulpy papal drama has been considered a top awards player since it debuted at Telluride in September. With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviews are solid enough and it performed decently at the box office (over $30 million) for its genre. It is up for 8 statues including Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. Conclave has scored BP nods everywhere it needs to. It leads the BAFTAs with 12 nominations, is up at Critics Choice and PGA and for Best Ensemble at SAG, and contended at the Golden Globes in Best Drama where it won Best Screenplay. Berger’s behind the camera work also landed a DGA mention.
The Case Against Conclave:
Berger surprisingly missed the cut with the Academy in Best Director. Only three films in the 21st century (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have won BP without its maker being nominated. Berger can’t catch a break with the Academy as his 2022 war epic All Quiet on the Western Front received nine mentions but excluded his direction. The 79 Metacritic score is less than some competitors. It is possible that the only race where its the frontrunner is Adapted Screenplay and possibly Editing. Don’t expect either of its acting nominees to make podium walks. The Brutalist emerged victorious at the Globes in Best Drama.
The Verdict:
The snub of Berger looms large. I’d likely be more optimistic if he hadn’t been left out. Conclave has a slight chance in BP, but I wouldn’t put much faith in it.
My Case Of posts will continue with Dune: Part Two…
DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man should rule the upcoming box office frame with a decent family audience showing. Based on Dav Pilkey’s graphic novel and a spinoff of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, Peter Hastings directs and voices the title character. Further behind the mic contributions come from Pete Davidson, Lil Rel Howery, Isla Fisher, Poppy Liu, Billy Boyd, and Ricky Gervais.
Reviews are mixed and even the positive notices are far from raves. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 70% with Metacritic at 60. While DreamWorks may have been the first studio to win Animated Feature at the Academy Awards via 2001’s Shrek, the bulk of their library has missed the cut. That should be the case with Dog Man. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora and The Brutalist for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third hopeful is A Complete Unknown.
The Case for A Complete Unknown:
If you want to bet on the picture with some late breaking momentum, the Bob Dylan biopic from James Mangold might be your horse. Released in December, Unknown is doing healthy business at the box office and scored 8 total noms that include Director, Actor (Timothée Chalamet), Supporting Actress (Monica Barbaro), Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. The journey to the better than expected nomination count began with over performances at the precursors. It really hasn’t missed anywhere with a Best Ensemble mention at SAG and BP noms at the Golden Globes, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and a DGA slot for Mangold.
The Case Against A Complete Unknown:
It didn’t win the Golden Globe in Drama (that went to The Brutalist). The 80% RT score and 71 Metacritic are below most of its competitors. There’s even a chance that it goes 0 for 8 on Oscar night. I wouldn’t say it is the favorite in any category.
The Verdict:
I don’t think it’s impossible for this to take the top prize, but I would need to see some victories at upcoming precursors such as Critics Choice or SAG.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora and if you missed that, it is linked at the bottom of the post. Our second contestant is Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist.
The Case for The Brutalist:
With the exception of SAG (where it wasn’t really expected to be a strong contender for Best Ensemble), the 215 minute epic immigration period piece has landed everywhere else. This includes BAFTA, PGA, Critics Choice, and DGA. The Golden Globe performance was particularly notable as it flexed its muscle with a Best Drama victory over competitors including A Complete Unknown and Conclave. Corbet took Director and Adrien Brody won Actor. The ten nominations are tied for 2nd best with Wicked. In addition to Pic, Corbet, and Brody, there are noms in Supporting Actress and Actor (Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. The timely subject matter doesn’t hurt. Critical appreciation is present with 93% on RT and a 90 Metacritic.
The Case Against The Brutalist:
Due to its runtime and subject matter, The Brutalist will not be as widely seen as some other options. Voters may want to go for something more popular and known. There’s been some subpar showings like at SAG where Pearce and Jones missed.
The Verdict:
I’ve had The Brutalist ranked in my top spot for months. It could take Director + Actor + some down the line competitions. That’s a solid mix for BP victory. However, this is a soft top ranking as half the field has BP winning potential.
My Case Of posts will continue with A Complete Unknown…
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