78th BAFTA Awards Reaction

The 78th British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) have occurred across the pond. What will be the ripple effect for the Oscars in two weeks? Let’s get into it!

Last weekend, the PGA/DGA/Critics Choice Awards troika rightfully vaulted Sean Baker’s Anora to frontrunner status at the Academy Awards. My feeling (shared by plenty of prognosticators) is that Anora would have a tougher time taking top prize at BAFTA. That turned out to be true, but it did nab an award that could shake up another major competition.

Edward Berger’s Conclave is your BAFTA Best Film and I correctly called that. It wins two years after the director’s All Quiet on the Western Front did the same. A very important reminder: Best Picture at the Oscars and Best Film at BAFTA have matched just twice in the past decade. For those thinking this vaults Conclave into winning status in two weeks, think again. If it can be named Best Ensemble at SAG next weekend, chances improve.

Brady Corbet is Best Director for The Brutalist (another correct call). This adds intrigue to the Academy’s directorial competition as Sean Baker won DGA last weekend for Anora. They should battle it out for Oscar.

Overall I went 17 for 24 in my projections. Before I get into the acting derbies and screenplay contests, let’s do a quick review on where I went right elsewhere. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl is the honoree for Animated Film while Emilia Pérez escaped its controversies to become Best Film Not in the English Language. The Brutalist took Cinematography and Original Score. Wicked is both your Costume Design and Production Design victor. Make Up & Hair went to The Substance. Conclave won Editing with Dune: Part Two emerging in Sound. Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer went to Kneecap with Conclave predictably taking Outstanding British Film.

Here’s where I went wrong in the down the line competitions. I went out on a limb with Better Man in Special Visual Effects and it was Dune: Part Two. In the Rising Star Competition, the Brits chose one of their own (David Jonsson) instead of Mikey Madison. Jonsson received plenty of complimentary notices in 2024 for Alien: Romulus. We are not done with Madison though.

In the newly created Children’s and Family Film race, it was Wallace & Gromit again and not my predicted The Wild Robot. And Anora aced Best Casting over Conclave. Finally, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story is your Best Documentary despite not being up at Oscar. I went with No Other Land which is considered the soft Academy favorite.

Now let’s get to our acting and writing showdowns. In maybe the biggest upset of all, Jesse Eisenberg won Original Screenplay for A Real Pain. I had Anora projected with The Brutalist as my runner-up. Truth be told, my second runner-up would’ve been The Substance so Pain managing this was truly unexpected. On the other hand, Conclave is the Adapted Screenplay winner which was expected.

Three of the four frontrunners in the acting races made English podium walks today and solidified their positions. That would be Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) as Best Actor and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) in their respective supporting fields. For any of this trio to be denied a sweep, the SAG Awards would need to provide that disruption next weekend.

The other frontrunner after winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice was Demi Moore in The Substance. Yet the BAFTAs went with Mikey Madison (Anora) and this sets up an unpredictable competition between them.

Bottom line: the BAFTAs made Best Actress and Director more intriguing while I wouldn’t read too much into the Conclave selection. Keep an eye on the blog for more speculation as we hurdle toward Oscar night.

Here’s the breakdown of movies that won BAFTAs:

4 Wins

The Brutalist, Conclave

2 Wins

Anora, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked

1 Win

Kneecap, The Substance, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Oscars: The Case of Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain. If you missed my post covering Yura Borisov in Anora, it’s linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Kieran Culkin:

Ever since A Real Pain premiered at Sundance over a year ago, Culkin has been considered a strong possibility for awards play. That narrative has carried over and intensified as the Succession Emmy winner has already picked up the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award. He’s also vying for BAFTA and SAG.

The Case Against Kieran Culkin:

The fact that A Real Pain didn’t nab a BP nod from the Academy is a tad concerning. Christopher Plummer (Beginners) is the last Supporting Actor recipient whose film wasn’t up in the big race and that was 13 years ago.

The Verdict:

Culkin is unquestionably the favorite. If someone else snags BAFTA or SAG (say Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown or Guy Pearce in The Brutalist), it could get more interesting.

My Case Of posts will continue with the second hopeful in Best Director and that’s Brady Corbet for The Brutalist…

Oscars: The Case of Yura Borisov in Anora

Oscar Predictions: Mickey 17

Prior to its March 7th domestic release, Mickey 17 has debuted overseas at the Berlin Film Festival. The sci-fi satire is Bong Joon-ho’s eagerly awaited follow-up to 2019’s Parasite which dominated the 92nd Academy Award by taking Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and International Feature Film. Originally slated for spring 2024, Mickey stars Robert Pattinson, Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, and Mark Ruffalo.

Early reviews suggests this is more in line with Joon-ho’s Okja as opposed to Parasite. With 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic, the acclaim isn’t as universal as the multiple Oscar winner. The release date would further suggest that Warner Bros won’t make this a major awards play (though this pattern did work for Dune: Part Two).

That said, some reaction is quite effusive. While Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay (it’s based on a 2022 Edward Ashton novel) could be a stretch, down the line tech races like Sound and Visual Effects could happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Unbreakable Boy Box Office Prediction

Zachary Levi headlines the true life father-son drama The Unbreakable Boy on February 21st. Jon Gunn, known for helming faith-based pics like The Case for Christ and last year’s Ordinary Angels, directs. The supporting cast includes Meghann Fahy, Jacob Laval, Drew Powell, Gavin Warren, and Patricia Heaton.

Boy has been sitting on the Lionsgate shelf for some time as it wrapped production in late 2020. That studio has had a slew of financial disappointments in recent months. While Ordinary Angels (also from Lionsgate) managed $6.5 million for its start, it had solid word-of-mouth and was released on 2800 screens. Early reports have Boy only rolling out in approximately 1300 venues. That should limit its potential as evidenced by my estimate.

The Unbreakable Boy opening weekend prediction: $3 million

For my The Monkey prediction, click here:

The Monkey Box Office Prediction

Oscars: The Case of Ariana Grande in Wicked

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Ariana Grande in Jon M. Chu’s Wicked. If you missed my post on Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown, it’s linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Ariana Grande:

As Glinda the Good in the hugely popular adaptation of the stage play, Grande scored big love from audiences and critics. It resulted in nominations at the Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. This is an opportunity for the Academy to recognize one of the most widely seen performances of the evening.

The Case Against Ariana Grande:

At the Globes and Critics Choice, she’s fallen short to another musical performance in Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez.

The Verdict:

Grande is in the same boat as my previous post with Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. Both are considered the runner-ups because they’ve yet to win a significant precursor. Like Chalamet, I think Grande needs to take SAG in order to have any real shot of taking gold over Saldaña. She could score a mild upset if the recent Pérez controversy extends beyond Karla Sofia Gascón.

My Case Of posts will continue with the next contender in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain…

Oscars: The Case of Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown

Oscars: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown. If you missed my post on Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), it’s linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

Best Actor (2017, Call Me by Your Name) – lost to Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

The Case for Timothée Chalamet:

He’s essentially Hollywood’s IT leading man of the moment coming off Wonka, Dune: Part Two, and this biopic where he embodies Bob Dylan. Plenty of critics have hailed it as career best work and he’s landed precursor nods everywhere that matter (Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG). Chalamet would make Oscar history as the youngest victor in this competition.

The Case Against Timothée Chalamet:

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) has already taken the Globe and Critics Choice as he seeks his second gold statue. Side note – he’s the current record holder for youngest Best Actor recipient for The Pianist (2002). Voters might figure Chalamet will have other opportunities as his career progresses.

The Verdict:

Chalamet is rightly seen as the runner-up. If he can snag SAG next weekend, this becomes a race. If it goes to Brody, the sweep is likely on.

My Case Of posts will continue with our next Supporting Actress contender and that’s Ariana Grande in Wicked…

Oscars: The Case of Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

The Monkey Box Office Prediction

Neon looks for The Monkey to shine at the box office when it opens February 21st. Based on Stephen King’s 1980 short story, the horror flick is Osgood Perkins’ follow-up to his surprise hit Longlegs from last year. Theo James, Tatiana Maslany, Elijah Wood, Christian Convery, Colin O’Brien, Rohan Campbell, and Sarah Levy star.

Profitability shouldn’t be an issue considering the reported $10 million budget. Early reviews are at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 67 on Metacritic. In July of 2024, Longlegs kicked off to a robust $22 million on its way to a $74 million domestic haul.

There’s been lots of scary movies in recent weeks, but The Monkey could capitalize on its simple premise, decent buzz, and King/Perkins combo. It could get past what Longlegs accomplished though I’ll project under in the high teens or low 20s.

The Monkey opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million

For my The Unbreakable Boy prediction, click here:

The Unbreakable Boy Box Office Prediction

Oscars: The Case of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Actress and that’s Karla Sofia Gascón for Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez. If you missed my post on Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), it’s linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Karla Sofia Gascón:

The Spanish actress has been nominated in the key quartet of precursors with the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Playing the title character in the most nominated picture, a Gascón victory would be history making as she’s the first transgender performer nominated in the category.

The Case Against Karla Sofia Gascón:

Well… it’s voluminous but let’s start with the non-obvious. There’s been no precursor wins of note and she lost to Demi Moore (The Substance) at the Globes and Critics Choice. While she may play the titular role, her costar Zoe Saldaña has been the focus of attention in Supporting Actress. Then there’s the headline making controversy. Last month, a number of Gascón’s social media posts from a few years back resurfaced containing troubling comments. The firestorm was enough for Netflix to essentially drop any campaign for her in Best Actress and refocus all attention on its other nominations.

The Verdict:

Gascón wasn’t a real threat to win before the scandal and is even less so now.

My Case Of posts will continue with the second contender in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown…

Oscars: The Case of Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Oscar Predictions – Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy

Captain America: Brave New World isn’t the sole fourth franchise entry seeking viewers over the holiday weekend. Renée Zellweger returns as the title character in Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy. It premieres on Peacock stateside tomorrow and has international theatrical distribution on Friday. Michael Morris directs with Hugh Grant, Colin Firth, and Emma Thompson reprising their roles from earlier installments. Newcomers to the series are Chiwetel Ejiofor, Leo Woodall, and Isla Fisher.

Reviews are providing mostly solid marks with 86% on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic at 71. Back in 2001, Bridget Jones’s Diary earned Zellweger Academy Award and Golden Globes nods in lead Actress (she respectively lost to Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball and Nicole Kidman from Moulin Rouge!). 2004 sequel Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason saw Zellweger get another nomination at the Globes for Actress in a Musical or Comedy where she fell short to Annette Bening (Being Julia). 2016’s Bridget Jones’s Baby received no significant awards play.

I wouldn’t rule out Zellweger (a two-time Oscar winner for 2003’s Cold Mountain and 2019’s Judy) getting some attention from Globes voters, but that will depend on competition. An Academy nom seems out of reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Captain America: Brave New World

Of the three previous Marvel Cinematic Universe monikered Captain America pics, there is just one Oscar nomination among them. That would be middle feature The Winter Soldier from 2014 which was up in Visual Effects and lost to Interstellar.

This Friday marks the 4th feature in the sub-franchise and 35th overall MCU title with Captain America: Brave New World. Anthony Mackie takes on the title role for the first time in the Julius Onah directed adventure. Danny Ramirez, Shira Haas, Carl Lumbly, Xosha Roquemore, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, Giancarlo Esposito, Tim Blake Nelson, and Harrison Ford costar.

Not all reviews are subpar but a lot of them are breaking bad. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 51% with Metacritic at 43. That’s certainly on the lower rung of the record setting franchise’s numbers and by far the worst of the America quartet (which is said to be more of a sequel to 2008’s The Incredible Hulk).

Most MCU fare is only Academy competitive in Visual Effects. Beginning with 2008’s Iron Man, they’re 0 for 14 in that race. Some critics are complaining that World has the looks of a direct to Disney+ effort. I wouldn’t expect this to be the 15th hopeful for the visuals. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…