Daniel Minahan is primarily known for his TV directorial work on Deadwood, Games of Thrones, and House of Cards. His efforts move to the big screen on April 25th with On Swift Horses. The period piece romantic drama stars Daisy Edgar-Jones of Where the Crawdads Sing fame and Saltburn‘s Jacob Elordi. Supporting players include Will Poulter, Diego Calva, and Sasha Calle.
Horses was first seen at the Toronto Film Festival last fall with Sony Pictures Classics snatching up distribution rights. There’s praise for the leads, production design, and cinematography. Yet the 67% Rotten Tomatoes meter and nearly identical 68 on Metacritic indicates the mixed reaction. Considering that coupled with the spring release date, don’t expect this to win, place, or show on the 2025 awards calendar. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A decade after co-directing the acclaimed stop-motion drama Anomalisa with Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson’s follow-up is The Actor (out tomorrow). Based on a 2010 novel from Donald E. Westlake, André Holland is the titular NYC performer stuck in Ohio with amnesia. The 1950s set Neon release costars Gemma Chan, May Calamawy, Asim Chaudhry, Joe Cole, Fabien Frankel, Toby Jones, and Tracey Ullman.
Once seen as a potential awards contender for 2024, The Actor is being unceremoniously put out in mid-March with little fanfare. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 87%, but Metacritic’s 63 illustrates the more divided nature of reviews. A once over of critical reaction indicates this is unlikely to be remembered by the Academy next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Disney looks to Snow White to earn a lot of green when it premieres March 21st. A live-action adaptation of the nearly 90-year-old first animated feature from the studio, Marc Webb directs with Rachel Zegler in the title role and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. The supporting cast includes Andrew Burnap, Ansu Kabia, Hadley Fraser, and Lorena Andrea.
The Mouse House has pumping out these remakes with regularity in the past decade. Some have gotten off to sizzling starts including The Jungle Book ($103 million), Beauty and the Beast ($174 million), Aladdin ($91 million), The Lion King ($191 million), and The Little Mermaid ($95 million). Cinderella from 2015 premiered to $67 million.
Snow White would be fortunate to hit any of those numbers and it could approach Cinderella territory. The slipper half empty narrative is something closer to Dumbo‘s sleepier opening from 2019 at $46 million. I’ll say it gets beyond that, but not by much.
Snow White opening weekend prediction: $49.6 million
Jack Quaid is unconventional hero Novocaine, Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender carry the romantic thriller Black Bag from Steven Soderbergh, and Daffy Duck and Porky Pig headline The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the new trio here:
It could be a battle for the #1 spot. I’m projecting no feature will top $10 million though I believe Novocaine has the best shot and that it manages first place with only mild bragging rights.
I foresee Mickey 17 suffering a significant drop in its sophomore frame after a so-so start (more on that below). A mid to high 50s plummet would put it in second or maybe even third.
Black Bag, generating impressive reviews, could outdo my third place number but the adult drama should face trouble bringing in a younger crowd.
Speaking of younger crowds, Looney Tunes hopes to cash in on its well-known animated stars. Yet this seems to be severely under marketed and I have it in fifth behind Captain America: Brave New World.
Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:
1. Novocaine
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
2. Mickey 17
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
3. Black Bag
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
4. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (March 7-9)
Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 ended Captain America‘s three-week #1 reign with $19 million. Given the reported price tag of around $120 million, that’s not a result to brag about. However, the sci-fi satire with Robert Pattinson did surpass my $17.9 million prediction.
Captain America: Brave New World fell to second with $8.3 million. I was on target at $8.4 million. The MCU adventure now stands at $176 million.
Last Breath was third with $4 million, a bit lower than my $4.6 million forecast for the survival flick. The two-week take is $14 million.
The Monkey was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $3.4 million) for $31 million after three weeks.
Paddington in Peru rounded out the top five at $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the leading quintet. The sequel’s four-week gross is $36 million.
Finally, Rule Breakers from Angel Studios stumbled in ninth with a paltry $1.5 million. I was far more generous at $3.7 million.
A24’s Death of a Unicorn has screened at South by Southwest prior to its March 28th theatrical premiere. The horror comedy from Alex Scharfman stars Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega as a father-daughter who accidentally cause the title of the film to occur. This displeases another unicorn. The supporting cast includes Will Poulter, Téa Leoni, Richard E. Grant, and Anthony Carrigan.
Early reviews are complimentary mixed with so-so notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 70% with Metacritic at 60. Unicorn represents the latest feature in a growing eat the rich sub genre that includes Triangle of Sadness, The Menu, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Saltburn. Some of those titles received awards attention. Don’t expect Death to. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Warner Bros brings some of their classic animated characters to the silver screen on March 14th when The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie opens. Marking the directorial debut of Pete Browngardt, the sci-fi comedic adventures features the voices of Eric Bauza as Daffy Duck and Porky Pig), Candi Milo, Peter MacNicol, Fred Tatasciore, Laraine Newman, and Wayne Knight.
Earth actually received a limited Los Angeles run in December to qualify for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars (it did not receive a nomination). The studio hasn’t done much work promoting its release. Despite solid word-of-mouth from the West Coast screenings, WB seems to be dumping this. I think anything over $5 million would be a surprise and lower single digits may be all, folks.
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
Jack Quaid is the unconventional titular character who feels no pain in Novocaine next weekend. The action comedy comes from directors Dan Berk and Robert Olsen with Amber Midthunder, Ray Nicholson, Jacob Batalon, Betty Gabriel, and Matt Walsh in the supporting cast.
Critics are mostly satisfied with what they’re seeing. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 89% with Metacritic at a more telling 68. This is not a feature made for the Academy’s microscope, but it’s worth entertaining whether Quaid could play at the Golden Globes in Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy (similar to Ryan Reynolds from Deadpool).
My guess is that Novocaine will not be on that awards body’s radar either several months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
What does an astronomical $320 million budget get you in Hollywood these days? Apparently a mid-March Netflix release and a heap of critical derision. Meet The Electric State, a comedic sci-fi adventure hitting the streamer March 14th from Anthony and Joe Russo of Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame fame. The human cast for the ultra expensive flick includes Millie Bobby Brown, Chris Pratt, Ke Huy Quan, Stanley Tucci, Woody Norman, Giancarlo Esposito, and Jason Alexander. An equally impressive voice cast includes Woody Harrelson, Anthony Mackie, Brian Cox, Jenny Slate, Alan Tudyk, Hank Azaria, Colman Domingo, and Rob Gronkowski.
It is worth noting that the Russo’s follow-ups to the Avengers juggernauts are the unimpressively reviewed Cherry and The Gray Man. Yet this appears to be receiving the worst of it with 23% on Rotten Tomatoes and 30 on Metacritic. The term “wasted potential” pops up more than once. Only the visual effects would be a possibility for awards attention and the Electric buzz might sink that. This has much more viability at the Razzies than with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Steven Soderbergh unveils his second 2025 picture in weeks when Black Bag opens on March 14th. The spy thriller is led by Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender with Marisa Abela, Tom Burke, Naomie Harris, Regé-Jean Page, and Pierce Brosnan in support.
The Focus Features flick is generating impressive critical support with 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s some of the best recent reviews in the prolific director’s long career. Bag‘s buzz could mean this over performs. If this reaches $10 million, that would be quite an accomplishment. I don’t think it gets there, but it should certainly outpace the $3.3 million that Soderbergh’s January predecessor Presence earned out of the gate.
Black Bag opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million
Paramount hopes Novocaine shows some teeth at the box office when it opens wide on March 14th. Jack Quaid headlines as a bank exec with a condition where he feels no pain. This turns him into a reluctant superhero during a hostage situation. Amber Midthunder, Ray Nicholson, Jacob Batalon, Betty Gabriel, and Matt Walsh costar with Dan Berk and Robert Olsen directing.
Any hope of Deadpool size grosses can be easily forgotten as the marketing campaign isn’t too robust. With quiet buzz, the real question is whether this manages to top $10 million for its start. I suspect it may not despite a reported debut on 3200 screens.
Novocaine opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
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