In 2022, Zach Cregger impressed critics and horror fans alike with Barbarian. He seems to have repeated that success with Weapons, out Friday. Focused on a mystery surrounding 17 missing children, Josh Brolin and Julia Garner star. The supporting cast includes Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 Metacritic (the latter score right in line with Barbarian), Weapons aims to be an August sleeper hit. This is a genre that struggles to generate awards attention. That should hold true here, though I’ll note several reviewers are praising Cregger’s script. Original Screenplay, however, is likely to be too crowded for Weapons to contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).
Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.
As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).
Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $32.5 million
2. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $28.8 million
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
4. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
5. The Naked Gun
Predicted Gross: $10 million
Box Office Results (August 1-3)
I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).
Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.
The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.
Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.
Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.
Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.
The immigration drama Souleyman’s Story premiered at Cannes all the way back in May 2024, but the French release is getting a limited U.S. release this weekend. From director Boris Lojkine, Abou Sangaré drew raves as the title character with Nina Meurisse providing support in a César (French equivalent to Oscars) winning Supporting Actress performance.
In the Un Certain Regard portion at Cannes, Story picked up honors for Sangaré’s performance and an overall jury prize. With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 81 Metacritic, this could’ve been a solid French choice for International Feature Film submission at the Academy Awards. Last year, they understandably went with Emilia Pérez. Controversial comments by lead Karla Sofia Gascón likely sunk its chances at a victory. Frankly I’m not sure if the French could make it their horse in 2025 since they released it last October. Odds are they’ll go with Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which played Cannes this year).
Bottom line: while Story drew its share of kudos and European fest love, it probably missed its window from the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Taron Egerton headlines the dark crime thriller She Rides Shotgun from director Nick Rowland, out in limited release this weekend. The supporting cast includes Rob Yang, John Carroll Lynch, Odessa A’Zion, and David Lyons in the adaptation of a 2017 novel by Jordan Harper.
Yet it’s 11-year-old Ana Sophia Heger that is drawing the attention of numerous critics who put the pic at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and 73 on Metacritic. Shotgun won’t be an Oscar player. If distributor Lionsgate attempts to campaign Heger for Best Young Actor/Actress at the Critics Choice Awards , she could sneak in there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Angel Studios flies out of their comfort zone and hope to draw up surprising box office numbers for Sketch when it opens on Wednesday, August 6th. Marking the directorial debut of Seth Worley, the family friendly fantasy stars Tony Hale, D’Arcy Carden, Bianca Belle, Kue Lawrence, and Kalon Cox.
Centered around a kids book come to life, Sketch was initially screened at last year’s Toronto Film Festival. Distribution rights were unexpectedly snatched up by Angel, best known for Sound of Freedom and various faith-based features. Reviews stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 76 on Metacritic.
I would be more confident that Angel had another sleeper on their hands if not for their more recent track history. In the past couple of years, the studio’s filmography has yielded mostly low to mid single digit starts. Perhaps children and their parents will show up in bigger numbers that I’m envisioning. Mid single digits from Friday to Sunday with a couple million more when counting Wednesday and Thursday is my hunch.
Sketch opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The Bad Guys 2 looks to steal lots of box office loot when it debuts this weekend. Following up on 2022’s heist comedy from DreamWorks Animation, Pierre Perifel returns to direct the adaptation of Aaron Blabey’s kids book series. Contributing voices include Sam Rockwell, Marc Maron, Craig Robinson, Anthony Ramos, Awkwafina, Zazie Beetz, Danielle Brooks, Natasha Lyonne, Maria Bakalova, Alex Borstein, Richard Ayoade, and Lilly Singh.
This franchise has drawn mostly appreciative notices from critics. The 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 64 Metacritic are right in line with the original’s scores. Yet that wasn’t enough for these characters to make off with an Animated Feature Academy Award nomination three years ago. I’m skeptical the sequel would either and I didn’t have it listed in my top ten possibilities in my updated predictions last weekend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After receiving critical kudos and impressive box office numbers for his solo directorial debut Barbarian in 2022, Zach Cregger’s follow-up Weapons is unloaded on August 8th. The horror mystery about a group of kids vanishing into the night stars Josh Brolin and Julia Garner (currently surfing multiplexes in The Fantastic Four: First Steps). Supporting players include Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.
Effective trailers, appreciation for Barbarian, and early reviews (100% on RT currently) have caused genre fans to circle Weapons on their viewing calendar. While Cregger’s first scary movie started off with $10 million, his second is expected to double that figure and then some. Some estimates even have this getting to $30M+. I’ll be a bit more conservative and go high 20s.
Arriving 22 years after the critically acclaimed remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy with Jodie Foster is Freakier Friday on August 8th. Nisha Ganatra takes over the directorial reins from Mark Waters with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan returning to headline. Other returnees from 2003 include Mark Harmon, Chad Michael Murray, Rosalind Chao, and Ryan Malgarini plus newbies Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, and Manny Jacinto joining.
With the source material originating from a 1972 kids novel, Curtis/Lohan’s take received stronger reviews than the original cinematic version. Curtis was even nominated for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes. The box office was equally impressive with a $22 million premiere and $110 million overall domestically. Adjusted for inflation, that debut would be close to $40 million today.
Freakier has a number of pluses going for it. There’s a nostalgia factor, the narrative of a Lohan comeback, and a dearth of female driven material this summer. Then there’s the Mouse House marketing. All of that combined could get this mean low 30s and maybe even higher.
Freakier Friday opening weekend prediction: $32.5 million
Arriving over 30 years after the Leslie Nielsen trilogy of outrageous slapstick comedies, Akiva Schaffer’s The Naked Gun reboot blasts off in theaters Friday. Liam Neeson stars as Frank Drebin’s son with Pamela Anderson as his love interest (which reportedly translated to real life). Costars include Paul Walter Hauser, Kevin Durand, and Danny Huston.
1988’s original (which was based on the short-lived but acclaimed TV show Police Squad!) was the critical darling of the series with the two follow-ups generally judged as inferior. Reviews for 2025’s installment are impressive with critics lauding its joke-a-minute landing percentage. It’s at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and 78 on Metacritic.
I’m not saying Gun will be an Oscar contender. The Golden Globes? Maybe that’s a possibility. The critical reaction is sturdy enough that a nom in Best Musical/Comedy and Neeson in Actor (Musical/Comedy) doesn’t appear out of the question. My Oscar (and Globe) prediction posts will continue…
While The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to ride a wave of solid buzz to a second weekend atop the charts, three new releases will jockey for position. We have animated sequel The Bad Guys 2, comedy franchise reboot The Naked Gun, and the Dave Franco/Alison Brie body horror experience Together premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Unless The Bad Guys 2 significantly underperforms or The Naked Gun really fires on all cylinders, it should manage a runner-up debut. I’m projecting high 20s which would improve on its 2022 predecessor’s mid-twenties rollout.
The Naked Gun is the biggest question mark of the weekend. While nostalgia could propel it to better than anticipated numbers, series unfamiliarity among younger patrons could hinder it. The range is wide as I see the floor in the teens with breakout potential putting it in second place. My lower 20s compromise means a commendable third place.
Together is at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, but horror fans have had plenty to feast on recently. My higher single digits estimate (and low double digits when factoring in its Wednesday bow) might put it in a face-off for fifth with the fifth weekend of Jurassic World Rebirth.
As mentioned, The Fantastic Four: First Steps should have no trouble staying in 1st. A mid to high 50s decline would be a bit more than the 53% experienced by Superman. Speaking of Supes, a fourth weekend decline close to 50% should mean fourth place.
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $50.6 million
2. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million
3. The Naked Gun
Predicted Gross: $22.3 million
4. Superman
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
5. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Together
Predicted Gross: $7 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (July 25-27)
MCU’s 37th feature yielded its 37th #1 in a row as The Fantastic Four: First Steps made $117.6 million. It came close to Superman‘s start, falling short by just over $7 million. The critically appreciated reboot also couldn’t match my $122.4 million prediction. This is still a nice start while not getting to the rosiest of projections.
Superman dropped to second with $24.8 million, flying under my $28 million call. DC’s reboot (that word is popular with this summer’s crop) is nearing $300 million with $289 million in its coffers after three weeks.
Jurassic World Rebirth did cross that threshold with $13.2 million more in weekend #4, in line with my $13.6 million projection. The tally is $301 million.
Other holdovers were in close range with my guesstimates. F1 was fourth with $6.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for five-week earnings of $165 million.
Smurfs rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I went with $5.5 million). The animated, yes, reboot has brought in a sleepy $22 million in two weeks.
I Know What You Did Last Summer was sixth with $5.2 million (I said $5.3 million) for $23 million in its ten days of release.
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