Universal hopes sports and horror is a successful mix when Him opens September 19th. From Jordan Peele’s Monkeypaw production house, Justin Tipping directs and cowrites. Marlon Wayans is an aging quarterback training a newbie (Tyriq Winters) via unconventional methods. The supporting cast includes Julia Fox, Tim Heidecker and Jim Jefferies.
If Peele were behind the camera, my projection might double. Scary movie aficionados have had lots to feast on recently (Weapons, The Conjuring: Last Rites). Him should successfully bring a fair portion out though it’s unlikely to approach the level of the aforementioned pics.
We have certainly seen this genre greatly exceed expectations in 2025, but I’ll say low 20s is where this lands.
Him opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million
For my A Big Bold Beautiful Journey prediction, click here:
Prior to its November 7th stateside debut, Nuremberg has screened at the Toronto Film Festival. The historical drama is James Vanderbilt’s second directorial feature behind 2015’s so-so received Truth (he’s best known for his screenwriting including Zodiac, the two Amazing Spider-Man pics, the latest Scream entries and Abigail). Best Actor winners Russell Crowe (as Nazi war criminal Hermann Göring) and Rami Malek headline. Leo Woodall, John Slattery, Mark O’Brien, Colin Hanks, Richard E. Grant and Michael Shannon costar.
Reaction is in the mixed variety with 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 Metacritic. Despite decent ink for the cast, this is unlikely to generate any significant awards chatter for the Sony Pictures Classics release. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Angelic comedy Good Fortune will hope for just that when it opens on October 17th. Marking the directorial debut of comedian Aziz Ansari, it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly satisfied reaction. The body swap tale stars Seth Rogen and Ansari with Keanu Reeves as a “budget guardian angel”. The supporting cast includes Keke Palmer and Sandra Oh.
Rotten Tomatoes is at 81% with 66 on Metacritic. Plenty of critics particularly dig the Reeves casting. While the Academy won’t consider this, could Fortune make a play in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes? I don’t think the reviews are quite there for it to have a legit shot unless divine intervention is involved. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle seeks to conquer the box office while Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk and mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues hope for strong showings. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet of newcomers can be accessed here:
The influx of material could cause the top 5 to consist of 80% fresh product. Demon Slayer appears primed for a breakout performance that doubles the best in show previous start of the franchise in 2021. My low to mid 50s estimate should easily give it the top spot.
The Conjuring: Last Rites vastly blew past expectations (more on that below). In its sophomore frame, a slippage in the mid to even high 60s could occur and would be perfectly understandable.
Franchise finale Abbey should debut in range with its 2022 predecessor in the mid to higher teens for a likely third place posting.
Despite impressive reviews, The Long Walk could struggle to each double digits (it doesn’t help that Conjuring is still out there).
Finally, Spinal Tap II might see mid single digits and that may be enough for fifth place.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Predicted Gross: $64.6 million
2. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $28.5 million
3. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Predicted Gross: $18.1 million
4. The Long Walk
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. Spinal Tap II: The End Continues
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (September 5-7)
Even the rosiest of prognoses didn’t match what The Conjuring: Last Rites managed to accomplish. The ninth overall pic in the franchise and fourth with a Conjuring moniker scared up $84 million and ghosted my measly $58.2 million prediction. Rites surpassed the best opening of the series (The Nun at $53 million) with plenty of room to spare. Warner Bros continued its remarkable 2025 in the horror genre (Sinners, Weapons).
Hamilton, a filmed version of the already iconic play, was second with $10.1 million on its 10th anniversary. That’s ahead of my $8.7 million estimate and a commendable gross considering this has been streaming on Disney+ for five years. This is only a one-week engagement which explains why you won’t find it in the top 5 above.
Weapons was third with $5.2 million, in range with my $5.5 million call. In five weeks, it has amassed $142 million.
Freakier Friday, also in week 5, was fourth with $3.8 million (I said $3.9 million) for $87 million total. It should fall just under or place just over $100 million.
Caught Stealing rounded out the top five with a hefty 59% decline at $3.1 million. I went a bit higher at $4 million. The two-week take is an underwhelming $14 million.
As a teacher at a school for troubled youth, Cillian Murphy is the title character in Steve. It reunites the Oppenheimer Best Actor winner with the director of his previous effort – last year’s Small Things like These. The supporting ensemble includes Tracey Ullman, Jay Lycurgo, Simbi Ajikawo and Emily Watson. After a premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, it’s out in limited release September 19th before an October 3rd Netflix bow.
The streamer’s involvement should ensure plenty of views. With 70 on Metacritic and 65% on Rotten Tomatoes, the reviews probably aren’t strong enough to warrant a major awards push from Netflix. That’s despite some critics particularly championing Murphy and Lycurgo. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
1984’s This Is Spinal Tap popularized the mockumentary and became an all-time comedy classic. Over four decades later, the clueless rock band consisting of Christoper Guest, Michael McKean and Harry Shearer is back in Spinal Tap II: The End Continues. So is Rob Reiner as their documentarian and the sequel’s actual director. Expect plenty of cameos as evidenced by Sirs Paul McCartney and Elton John in the trailer.
With Bleecker Street handling distribution duties, marketing for the follow-up is a little underwhelming. Many younger viewers simply may not be familiar with the source material while some fans of the original may wait until a streaming start.
The original’s biggest fans should still turn up, but that might only mean a debut in the mid single digits at best.
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:
Three years after winning Best Actor for his performance in The Whale (capping a remarkable career comeback), Brendan Fraser could find himself in contention again courtesy of Rental Family. Directed by Hikari (best known for making episodes of the acclaimed Netflix series Beef), the Japan set dramedy has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 21st domestic bow. The supporting cast includes Takehiro Hira, Mari Yamamoto, Shannon Mahina Gorman and Akira Emoto.
Canadian reaction indicates this a crowdpleaser with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 72 Metacritic. This might be a trendy pick for the People’s Choice Award at TIFF which often correlates to a BP nod at the Academy Awards. Family could certainly snag one of the ten spots though I don’t see Hikari as a threat in director. His original screenplay with Stephen Blahut is more of a possibility.
In an Actor race that is starting to look crowded, Fraser will certainly be in the mix. In recent weeks, I have predicted Yamamoto in Supporting Actress and Emoto in Supporting Actor. Word-of-mouth suggests their inclusion (while not out of the question) could face tougher odds than Fraser (who I’ve yet to place in the Actor quintet). Let’s see if that changes in my next update that is coming soon. If his costars miss the cut, the new Casting race could be a place where this snags another mention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Julian Schnabel has Oscar history with Before Night Falls from 2000 (in which Javier Bardem was up for lead Actor), 2007’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (four noms including Director), and At Eternity’s Gate (Willem Dafoe contending for Actor). His latest is the period piece drama In the Hand of Dante, sporting an eclectic cast headlined by Oscar Isaac and including Gal Gadot, Gerard Butler, John Malkovich, Jason Momoa, Louis Cancelmi, Sophia Impacciatore, Franco Nero, and Al Pacino.
Stateside release is undetermined at press time. Despite the star power, distributors might not be lining up since this was generally considered one of the misfires at the Venice Film Festival. While some critics tipped their cap to its ambition, most say it wasn’t brimming with overall quality. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 35% and that should ensure Dante doesn’t fire up awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Before it drops in theaters on October 10th, Roofman has played the Toronto Film Festival. While reactions aren’t through the first portion of its title, they’re overwhelmingly positive. Based on the true story of a military man turned thief, Channing Tatum headlines the dramedy with Kirsten Dunst as his love interest. Costars include Ben Mendelsohn, Peter Dinklage, Uzo Abuda, Juno Temple, Emory Cohen, Melonie Diaz, and LaKeith Stanfield.
While this seems like an unconventional choice for Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines director Derek Cianfrance, critics are mostly thumbing it up. Rotten Tomatoes is at 90% with 74 on Metacritic. Some reviews are saying this is a career best performance from Tatum and complimenting the chemistry with Dunst. They could both be long shots for Academy attention. If Paramount slots this in Musical/Comedy instead of Drama (sounds like both are feasible) and campaigns Dunst in Best Actress as opposed to supporting at the Golden Globes, the odds could be improved for that ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
With Daniel Craig anchoring for the third time as eccentric sleuth Benoit Blanc, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery continues the mystery franchise. It premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a limited theatrical engagement slated for November 26th and Netflix release on December 12th. Rian Johnson returns as writer/director with the considerable supporting cast including Josh O’Connor, Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Mila Kunis, Jeremy Renner, Kerry Washington, Andrew Scott, Cailee Spaeny, Daryl McCormack, and Thomas Haden Church.
2019’s Knives Out was up for Original Screenplay and 2022 follow-up Glass Onion vied for Adapted Screenplay. They respectively lost to Parasite and Women Talking. Several critics in Canada are making the case that Wake is the strongest overall of the three pictures. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 82. It’s probably a safe bet that it’ll make the cut in Adapted Screenplay at the 98th ceremony. As for the cast, O’Connor and Close are being labeled as best in show. I’d say the latter, due to her infamous history of being nominated and not winning, stands a better chance with the Academy. Don’t be surprised if the sole nom for this is in its writing race.
The Golden Globes should should offer different opportunities. Both predecessors were nominated for Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy – with the original falling short to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Banshees of Inisherin taking the prize over Glass. Craig was nominated for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy for both. It was Taron Egerton (Rocketman) and Inisherin‘s Colin Farrell hearing their names called instead. I would suspect Craig will get in again (as will the film) and hope the third time is the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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