Based on the first trailer five months ago, I didn’t know what to make of Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had it parked in 11th (just on the outside looking in) in Best Picture for weeks. A few days ago, early word-of-mouth emerged that it was something special and today’s lapsing of the review embargo accentuates the buzz. Out September 26th, Battle has established itself as a major awards player. Leonardo DiCaprio headlines a cast including Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti in her first big screen role.
A mix of different genres including action, comedy and thriller fused with political commentary, Battle stands at a noteworthy 96% on Rotten Tomatoes with 97 on Metacritic. It is highly possible this will be the best reviewed picture of 2025. When I updated my predictions four days ago, I ranked this 1st in Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Nothing I see today changes that dynamic. Instead it enhances it. This would mark Anderson’s fourth BP nominee with the others being 2007’s There Will Be Blood, 2017’s Phantom Thread and 2021’s Licorice Pizza (he was nominated for his direction with all three as well). Anderson would be up for his sixth screenwriting prize after Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Blood, Inherent Vice and Pizza. He has yet to take home gold and that may be about to change.
Nominations down the line in Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Original Score (by Jonny Greenwood) and perhaps Sound could be in the mix. Warner Bros is going to have their hands full campaigning for this and Sinners in multiple races against one another. The studio may end up racking up a host of victories between the two.
Moving to the ensemble, DiCaprio will be vying for his seventh at bat (his sole win came for 2015’s The Revenant). His placement in lead Actor is not guaranteed. Simply put, plenty of voters may take him for granted. He wasn’t nominated for his two titles that won BP (Titanic and The Departed). Nevertheless the film’s momentum may get him in the quintet.
For months, prognosticators have wondered whether Hall, Taylor or Infiniti will be the smart play in Supporting Actress. Reaction suggests Taylor is the most likely to make the cut, but that Infiniti could do so as well.
Mr. Penn (a two-time Best Actor recipient for 2003’s Mystic River and 2008’s Milk) looks to nab his inaugural Supporting Actor mention and sixth nom overall. It would be his first since Milk seventeen years ago.
Bottom line: it could be said that Sinners, Hamnet and Sentimental Value all have win narratives for the biggest prize of all. Now we certainly have Another. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The fact that A Big Bold Beautiful Journey skipped the recent film festival circuit might have been a clue that the studio was worried about its critical prospects. From acclaimed director Kogonada (Columbus, After Yang), the fantasy romance stars Margot Robbie (in her first major project since Barbie) and Colin Farrell with Kevin Kline and Phoebe Waller-Bridge providing support.
That antenna about it avoiding Telluride or Venice or Toronto appears in tune. Many reviews are calling this a misfire with 56% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 41 Metacritic. Despite some appreciation for technical aspects, the Academy won’t be looking into nominations for this Journey. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The box office should come down to Earth a bit this weekend after Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle smashed the opening weekend record for an anime title. We have football themed horror thriller Him starring Marlon Wayans, fantastical drama A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell and football themed inspirational tale The Senior featuring Michael Chiklis opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Him, from Jordan Peele’s production house, should have bragging rights in 1st position though my low 20s take puts it well behind what other recent horror flicks have achieved.
The other newcomers might not make the top 5. Journey is a head scratcher. As I pointed out in the long post, this is Robbie’s first significant project since Barbie and you’d think there would be more hype. My mid single digits estimate has it in sixth.
As for The Senior, Angel Studios dusted it off after it premiered at a Floridian film festival two years back. Their marketing might get this to mid single digits (if they’re lucky) for seventh place.
Demon Slayer indeed slayed this past weekend (more on that below). These types of anime offerings are typically front loaded and I expect that to be case here. A sophomore drop in the mid to high 70s would give it mid teens and it certainly could repeat in 1st if Him underwhelms.
Being that I’m unconvinced about Journey and The Senior, holdovers The Conjuring: Last Rites, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and The Long Walk could populate the rest of the high five.
Here’s how I see the top 7 shaking out:
1. Him
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
2. Demon Slayer: Kimsetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
3. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
4. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
5. The Long Walk
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
6. A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
7. The Senior
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (September 12-14)
Demon Slayer (I’ve tired of writing the rest of its name) lived up to its late breaking hype with a gargantuan haul of $70.6 million, above my $64.6 million projection. The Crunchyroll release capitalized on unprecedented domestic interest in the genre as it attained the status of an event picture.
The Conjuring: Last Rites, after its own huge start, dropped an understandable 69% to second with $25.6 million. I predicted a tad more at $28.5 million. The two-week tally is a scary good $130 million as it nears the $137 million franchise record held by 2013’s original.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale managed to slightly outdo its 2022 predecessor in third with $18.1 million. My guesstimate? $18.1 million! This should also be front loaded and I’m thinking a low to mid 60s fall for this weekend.
Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk was fourth with $11.7 million compared to my $8.7 million call. Solid critical reaction likely helped push it past double digits.
The 30th anniversary re-release of Pixar’s inaugural effort Toy Story rounded out the top five with $3.4 million. I didn’t do a prediction for it. The additional dollars brought its three decade old total to $195 million (or over $400 million stateside adjusted for inflation).
Finally, mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues flopped in ninth (at least it didn’t go to 11th) with $1.6 million. I was more generous at $3.4 million as interest wasn’t present for the sequel to the classic 1984 original.
Nearly two years after premiering at the Fort Lauderdale Film Festival, The Senior is finally graduating to an actual release on September 19th. Distributed by Angel Studios, it tells the true life story of a 59-year-old (Michael Chiklis) given the chance to play college football. Rod Lurie directs with Mary Stuart Masterson, Brandon Flynn, James Badge Dale and Rob Corddry costarring.
The Senior will not be the biggest grossing gridiron themed debut next weekend due to horror pic Him. It does have a fair shot at outgrossing the weekend’s other new release A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, which sports a higher profile.
Like other Angel titles, a lower to mid single digits start is the likely scenario.
The Senior opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million
Miles Teller, Elizabeth Olsen and Callum Turner are in a love triangle in the afterlife set rom com Eternity from director David Freyne. The A24 title releases November 14th and played the Toronto Film Festival. Recent Supporting Actress winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph (said to steal some scenes) and John Early costar.
The studio is hoping its visible leads bring moviegoers out to a genre often relegated to streaming in recent years. Reviews are measured but saying it’s a decent crowdpleaser with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 64 Metacritic. This is unlikely to factor into awards conversations unless it manages to sneak into Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes or with Olsen in lead Actress. I doubt it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell headline the fantastical drama A Big Bold Beautiful Journey beginning September 19th. Kogonada, best known for making Columbus and After Yang, directs with a supporting cast including Kevin Kline, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Lily Rabe, Jodie Turner-Smith and Billy Magnussen.
Nearly five years ago, the script by Seth Reiss was featured on the “Black List” of Hollywood’s hottest screenplays not yet produced. Yet with its release less than a week away, buzz for Beautiful is exceedingly quiet. This is even more surprising since it’s Robbie’s first major project since her 2023 box office phenomenon Barbie. I also find it curious that this skipped the film festival circuit of Venice, Telluride and Toronto where this could’ve built word-of-mouth.
That all may spell an inconsequential start in the mid single digits.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
My goodness… where to begin? Since my last predictions post on August 24th, the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone. Toronto wraps up tomorrow.
Since that time, my individual posts have showcased numerous pictures screening at those festivals and their awards viability. There are plenty of headlines, but the biggest in my estimation comes from outside those venues.
That would be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens in less than two weeks. It eschewed the festival circuit. However, early screenings have occurred and they suggest Battle could be a force on the circuit. It vaults from 11th all the way to 1st in my BP rankings while doing the same in Director and Adapted Screenplay. Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn join the supporting fields for their work (though Leonardo DiCaprio is not in my lead Actor quintet).
As for other major developments (many resulting from those aforementioned viewings in Colorado, Italy and Canada):
Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet is the other massive gainer. It enters BP, Director and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal) while Jessie Buckley is now #1 in lead Actress.
The additions of Battle and Hamnet in BP knock out Rental Family and After the Hunt (the mixed to negative reaction for that movie caused it drop everywhere).
Paul Thomas Anderson and Chloé Zhao entering the Director derby means Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) are outsiders looking in.
Emma Stone (Bugonia) is in the Best Actress quintet with Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) out.
Somehow Best Actor stays the same, but I struggled because I strongly considered the top 11 for slots in the top five.
Major changes in Supporting Actress with Battle‘s Teyana Taylor, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) replacing Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) and Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt).
Hamnet‘s Paul Mescal and Battle’s Sean Penn cause Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) and Akira Emoto (Rental Family) to fall from Supporting Actor.
Netflix’s juggernaut KPop Demon Hunters is now #1 in Animated Feature.
You can read the (considerable) movement below and my next update will be up within the next two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 11) (+10)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Hamnet (PR: 13) (+9)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (+3)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (+2)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (-2)
18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Anemone (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
23. After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-16)
24. Weapons (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Smashing Machine
Ballad of a Small Player
La Grazia
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+7)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (+8)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kaother Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
Hikari, Rental Family
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (would be supporting if nominated)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 13) (+10)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (-5)
11. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-11)
15. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: 14) (E)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
11. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+4)
12. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-4)
14. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-8)
15. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On? (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
The Rivals of Amziah King
Anemone
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 1) (-1)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
10. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-3)
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)
12. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ballad of a Small Player
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Late Fame
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sirât (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
La Grazia
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (+3)
7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Scarlet (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cover-Up (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Below the Clouds (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
Deaf President Now!
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-3)
9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Couture
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+7)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wolf Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Christy
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Warfare (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Warfare (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
How to Train Your Dragon
That equates to these generating these numbers of nominatons:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Winner: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Jay Kelly
5 Nominations
Bugonia
4 Nominations
Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Elio, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Eyes of Ghana, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Warfare, Zootopia 2
Dead Man’s Wire from Gus Van Sant is being compared to the crime movies of the mid to late 70s era it takes place in after it premiered at Venice with additional play in Toronto. Bill Skarsgård headlines as a real life kidnapper in a role that’s drawing impressive reviews. The supporting cast includes Dacre Montgomery, Colman Domingo, Myha’la, Cary Elwes, John Robinson and Al Pacino.
There has been more than one comparison to 1975’s Dog Day Afternoon (starring Pacino). Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 73 on Metacritic. Distribution rights are unsettled so there’s no guarantee this is out in 2025. While there’s across the board thumbs in the right direction, I’m not sure it is enough for this to break out in awards chatter. There’s the sneaky possibility of Skarsgård gaining momentum, but I’m not convinced. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Considered a comedy classic and credited for popularizing the mockumentary genre, This Is Spinal Tap was released 41 years ago. Today the sequel is out for consumption in Spinal Tap II: The End Continues. It reunites director Rob Reiner with Christopher Guest, Michael McKean and Harry Shearer as the clueless but endearing English rockers.
The original Tap took a little while to achieve its beloved status. None of their original songs were nominated in that category at the Oscars so we missed the opportunity to see them perform “Big Bottom” or “Stonehenge”. At the Golden Globes, it didn’t materialize in Best Picture – Musical/Comedy. I’d say it had more staying power in retrospect than Micki + Maude.
Reviews for the sequel are primarily average with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes and 60 on Metacritic. There are nine new tracks on the soundtrack. Perhaps “Let’s Just Rock Again” or another ditty will be campaigned for by the studio. If it makes the shortlist of contenders, maybe a wave of nostalgia gets it in, but I doubt it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Based on the late 19th century play, Nia DaCosta (Candyman, The Marvels) brings Hedda to the silver screen on October 22nd before its Amazon Prime debut a week later. The sultry drama stars Tessa Thompson in the title role with Imogen Poots, Tom Bateman, Nicholas Pinnock, Kathryn Hunter and Nina Hoss in the supporting cast.
Its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival yielded raves for Thompson and Hoss in particular. Reviews of the pic itself were more measured. Rotten Tomatoes is at 85% with 62 on Metacritic. The awards path for Hedda might follow a similar road to Passing (2021). That Netflix drama had stronger critical buzz and there was Oscar chatter for Thompson in Actress and Ruth Negga in supporting. Expect the same for Thompson and Hoss, but I suspect they might not end up making the final cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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