Back in February, Holding Liat won the best documentary prize at the Berlin Film Festival. Nearly a year later, it is slated for U.S. release in January and is one of the 15 shortlisted contenders for best of in its genre at the 98th Academy Awards. From filmmaker Brandon Kramer with Darren Aronofsky as a producer, Liat refers to a woman kidnapped during the October 7th attacks in Gaza.
Based on 13 reviews, the pic stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Liat will try to make the final five in a category filled with politically themed subject matter including 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, and My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow. I’ve yet to list this in my top 10 possibilities, but that could change when I update my predictions by the end of the year. It could make the cut though some of the other hopefuls seem to have a higher profile. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
When the Critics Choice branch revealed a number of shortlisted contenders for the first time back in November, writer/director Charlie Polinger’s The Plague was a surprise mention in Casting and Ensemble, Cinematography, and Score. The psychological drama that premiered at Cannes stars Everett Blunck, Kayo Martin, Kenny Rasmussen, and Joel Edgerton. It was released in limited fashion on Christmas Eve with a wide bow slated for January 2nd. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 100% with Metacritic at 69.
The Plague did not end up being a final nominee in any of those 3 CCA categories though it landed a nom for Blunck in Best Young Actor/Actress. His costar Edgerton is a possibility to receive his first acting nod, but it would be in lead for Train Dreams. Any hopes for The Plague to play at the Academy Awards have probably left the station as it seems IFC isn’t mounting much of a campaign. It also didn’t make the Cinematography or Score shortlists for the big dance. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Three Christmas offerings look to brighten up the box office as 2025 draws to a close. We have meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black, the nationwide expansion of Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar contender Marty Supreme, and musical dramedy Song Sung Blue starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Let’s start with those newcomers in a complicated weekend to project. After a sizzling per theater average in limited release, Marty Supreme could be ready for an impressive expansion. I’ve got it leading the debuting trio with a three-day in the high teens and mid 20s when counting Thursday.
I have Anaconda hitting low teens Friday to Sunday with just over $20 million for the four-day. That would put it in sixth. It is important to remember that holiday holdovers are likely to experience smallish declines since we are in the Christmas corridor.
Song Song Blue could get to double digits over the traditional weekend though I have it barely under for an 8th place start. Word-of-mouth should carry it forward into January as it’s said to be a crowdpleaser.
There’s little doubt that Avatar: Fire and Ash will repeat in first. The big question is what the sophomore frame percentage decline will look like after it opened on the lower end of expectations (more on that below). I’m thinking it decreases about 30%.
Three features in their second go-rounds (David, The Housemaid, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants) should all see meager eases as audiences catch up on the Yuletide products. Here’s how I envision the top 8 shaking out and please note projection for holdovers are for Friday to Sunday:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $61.8 million
2. David
Predicted Gross: $19.5 million
3. Marty Supreme
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $27.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)
4. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
5. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
6. Anaconda
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)
7. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
8. Song Sung Blue
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (December 19-21)
James Cameron’s third voyage to Pandora had no trouble ruling the charts, but it couldn’t match my forecast. Avatar: Fire and Ash earned $89.1 million compared to my $98 million take. That’s far less than the $134 million that 2022 predecessor The Way of Water made out of the gate. To be fair, Water had far less competition though this is still an unremarkable start. Let’s see how it plays throughout the season.
Biblical animated tale David from Angel Studios took flight with $22 million, just ahead of my $20.8 million. That’s actually the highest opening for the studio (surpassing Sound of Freedom) and it should fill multiplex pews this coming weekend.
The Housemaid, based on a bestseller and starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, checked in with $19 million. That’s a tad less than my $21.9 million call as a sizable female crowd turned out.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants underwhelmed compared to other franchise entries with $15.6 million (I said $17.1 million). Family audiences could still make it a priority with kiddos out of school over Christmas.
Finally, Zootopia 2 rounded out the top five with $14.8 million, in line with my $14.3 million prediction. The four-week tally is $283 million.
In my previous box office prediction for Marty Supreme (opening wide on Christmas), I wrote that it is likely to play better on the coasts than everywhere in the middle. The opposite could be true for Song Sung Blue which also opens on the holiday. The musical drama from Craig Brewer stars Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson in the true life tale of Neil Diamond tribute act Lightning & Thunder. Ella Anderson, King Princess, Michael Imperioli, Mustafa Shakir, Fisher Stevens, and Jim Belushi are among the supporting players.
Reviews are mixed with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and 55 on Metacritic. That said, plenty of the write-ups indicate this could be a crowdpleaser. Blue seeks to bring in an older audience during the Yuletide season. That’s likely to happen, but it may play over several weeks and not immediately while word-of-mouth builds.
I’ll project it manages just shy of $10 million over the traditional Friday-Sunday portion of the weekend with low teens when counting Christmas.
Song Sung Blue opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)
With plenty of Oscar buzz and a leading man who’s been on a hot streak, Marty Supreme is looking to set the table for a strong start this Christmas. Director Josh Safdie goes solo like his brother did earlier this year with The Smashing Machine, but this time the awards buzz stayed intact. Timothée Chalamet headlines the 1950s set sports dramedy. The eclectic supporting cast includes Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary, Tyler Okonma, Abel Ferrera, and Fran Drescher.
Supreme is expected to make a splash in limited release the weekend before its December 25th wide bow. It certainly could and most likely will play better on the coasts. However, strong reviews (94 RT, 91 Metacritic) and Chalamet’s presence might propel the assumed Best Picture nominee to solid stateside earnings.
I would expect this to reach mid teens over the traditional Friday to Sunday (Dec 26-28) with mid 20s million when counting the holiday.
Marty Supreme opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $27.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)
This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.
We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordanin Sinners.
On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.
It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.
The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.
Let’s take a look at all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)
9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Boys Go to Jupiter
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Blue Moon
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
28 Years Later
Weapons
Wolf Man
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Warfare
The Testament of Ann Lee
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Mickey 17
How to Train Your Dragon
And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
Sony is banking on Anaconda mixing up a lot of box office dough when it debuts on Christmas Day. The high-concept comedy from Tom Gormican finds Paul Rudd and Jack Black, fresh off A Minecraft Movie, attempting to remake the 1997 cult favorite feature of the same name that starred Jennifer Lopez, Ice Cube, Owen Wilson, and Jon Voight. The supporting players in this meta experience include Steve Zahn, Thandiwe Newton, Daniela Melchior, and Selton Mello.
Younger viewers may not be overly familiar with the source material. However, the PG-13 rating and comedic heavyweights should help push this to a decent start. With Christmas on a Thursday (that hasn’t occurred since 2014), crunching the numbers is a little tricky. A four-day rollout near $30 million is doable though I’ll go with low to mid teens for the traditional weekend and low 20s when counting the holiday.
Anaconda opening weekend prediction: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Japanese drama Kokuho showed up in two shortlists for the 98th Academy Awards released today (expect a few posts covering international and documentary contenders in particular). Being that it’s Japan’s submission for International Feature Film, materializing on that list wasn’t a major surprise. Making the ten possibilities in Makeup and Hairstyling was. Lee Sang-il directs with a cast including Ryo Yoshizawa, Ryusei Yokohama, Mitsuki Takahata, Shinobu Terajima, Min Tanaka, and Ken Watanabe. It was first screened at Cannes in the summer.
The film has bragging rights. In November, it became the highest grossing live-action film in its native country. It also sports a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Japan has seen a handful of their submissions make the Academy’s cut in the 21st century. They are The Twilight Samurai from 2003, Departures in 2008 (which won), Shoplifters in 2018, another victor with Drive My Car from 2021, and Perfect Days from 2023.
That’s a resume that would look darn good in a different year. International Feature Film, however, is packed with other surefire hopefuls including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sirât (which had a banner day on the shortlists), and No Other Choice (all Neon titles). There may not be room for Kokuho to shine. It probably stands a better shot at Makeup and Hairstyling as they’ve proven to be a branch capable of unexpected nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Avatar: Fire and Ash, James Cameron’s third feature in his epic sci-fi franchise, is the last major piece of the 98th Academy Awards puzzle to come into focus. Opening Friday, the review embargo was lifted today as it hopes to rule the box office over the holidays. While it looks to join the multi-billion dollar club like its two predecessors, Fire additionally seeks to heat up Oscar ballots.
The 2009 original landed nine nominations – Picture, Director, Art Direction (which it won), Cinematography (another victory), Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (a third trophy). Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 81% with 83 on Metacritic.
When Avatar: The Way of Water came out 13 years later, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing was combined into just Sound while Art Direction was now Production Design. Water was nominated for both along with Picture. The sole win came for its Visual Effects. Rotten Tomatoes was 76% with Metacritic at 67.
Fire critical reaction is so far the weakest of the trilogy with 70% on RT and a 61 Metacritic. With Oscar shortlists released this afternoon, we already know it won’t be nominated for Cinematography since it is not one of the contending 16 features. It did make four other shortlisted races – Original Score, Original Song (the Miley Cyrus track “Dream As One”), Sound, and Visual Effects.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way – Visual Effects is a given and Fire is the frontrunner. Sound is likely. I’m not convinced it makes the musical cut in either Score or Song.
What’s left is Picture and Production Design – the other two competitions where the other Avatar‘s got in. The latter is a stronger possibility. This third trip to Pandora could still get into BP. Yet if the Academy goes with a successful late 2025 sequel, I’d give Wicked: For Good an edge. It’s entirely feasible that neither get in. I suspect Fire may only rise in tech competitions when all is said and done. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Hollywood is hoping for merry pre-Christmas tidings with Avatar: Fire and Ash in position to rule the charts. There’s other potential new gifts for multiplexes in the form of psychological thriller The Housemaid and the double animated offerings of biblical tale David and fourquel The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. You can locate my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:
The first two Avatar features from newly minted billionaire James Cameron each grossed $2B+ worldwide. Fire looks to keep up pace. I have it under $100 million for its first stateside weekend but with about $36million less than 2022 predecessor The Way of Water.
Placement for slots 2-4 could be unpredictable. Based on a buzzy bestseller, The Housemaid with Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried has breakout potential and should serve as shrewd counter programming from blue creatures and family fare. I have it in second.
Faith-based crowds could cause David to top SpongeBob. I have the former in the low 20s with the latter in mid to higher teens. Both look to debut decently and hold impressively over Christmas. Current champ Zootopia 2 should follow in an animated bottom heavy top 5.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $98 million
2. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $21.9 million
3. David
Predicted Gross: $20.8 million
4. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
5. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
Box Office Results (December 12-14)
Zootopia 2 returned to rule the charts with $25.8 million in its third frame, a bit ahead of my $23.6 million call. The Disney sequel sits at $258 million domestically and has already topped $1 billion globally.
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $19.3 million. The 70% drop was, as expected, steep. However, it didn’t fall as far as my $15.7 million projection suggested. The horror sequel is near nine digits at $95 million.
Wicked: For Good was third with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.2 million prediction and it has conjured up $312 million in four weeks.
Hindi-language action pic Dhurandhar was #4 and I did not have it in the top 5. With $3.4 million, it had the highest per-screen-average of all features (nearly $10k per venue) and brought its earnings to $7.7 million after two weeks.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was fifth with only a 32% decline. With $2.3 million in its fifth weekend, the overall gross is $59 million. I also didn’t have it in the leading quintet.
That’s because I slightly overestimated Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution at $2.4 million and it made $2 million in sixth. The two-week take is $14 million.
Finally, poorly reviewed dramedy Ella McCay from veteran filmmaker James L. Brooks languished in seventh with $2 million. I was slightly a little more generous at $2.7 million.
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