Coinciding with the release of her 12th album The Life of a Showgirl, the unstoppable force that is Taylor Swift is back in theaters October 3rd courtesy of Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. Clocking in at just under an hour and a half, Showgirl will showcase the premiere of a new video in addition to lyric videos for other tracks and behind the scenes footage.
Announced just days ago, all domestic AMC Theatres will feature the project as well as participating Alamo Drafthouse, Regal and Cinemark locations. Tickets are $12 to honor her 12th album. Nearly two years ago, the pop sensation dominated the box office with her Eras Tour big screen experience. It opened to a walloping $93 million on its way to a $180 million stateside haul.
Showgirl will only be in theaters for three days. Expectations are not as high and this probably won’t play on the 3800+ venues that Eras did. Early estimates have this grossing around $40 million. This might go without saying, but I would take the over when it comes to Ms. Swift.
When the screen count is released, my estimate could fluctuate. While I agree this won’t reach Eras level, I’m going with low to mid 50s and let’s see if that ticks up (or maybe down) in the days to come.
Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl opening weekend (and overall gross) prediction: $48.6 million
For my The Smashing Machine prediction, click here:
We are now in the fall season of serious prognosticating as a huge portion of Oscar hopefuls have already screened courtesy of Venice, Telluride and Toronto. As discussed in my previous update on September 13th, the biggest story of the month didn’t come from those festivals. It came via Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens this Friday. Greeted with rapturous reviews, Another vaulted to 1st in my Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay rankings with Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn joining my projected acting quintets in the supporting fields. However, ten days ago, I’d yet to include Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor five. Now I am and that’s at the expense of George Clooney (Jay Kelly). This is a major swing as Leo rises 5 spots while Clooney falls 4.
We also have a change in the BP ten with Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice entering and Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The director line-up remains the same though I came close to putting Chan-wook in.
In Supporting Actor, Delroy Lindo (Sinners) is out of the lineup with Jeremy Strong (Springsteen) back in. In Supporting Actress, Gwyneth Paltrow’s work in Marty Supreme reenters with Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) dipping.
As I did around the same time in 2024, I’m condensing my projections. Instead of 25 possibilities in BP, it shrinks to 15. In all other fields, I’m now listing 10. The next big happening that could impact my forecasts is the New York Film Festival. Starting Friday, NYFF will provide first looks at Anemone with Daniel Day-Lewis and Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On?
You can read all the movement beyond Mr. DiCaprio’s elevation below.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Secret Agent
The Testament of Ann Lee
The Rivals of Amziah King
Blue Moon
Is This Thing On?
Anemone
The Voice of Hind Rajib
After the Hunt
Weapons
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Noam Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib
Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 11) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Miles Caton, Sinners
Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Sean Bean, Anemone
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blue Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
The Testament of Ann Lee
After the Hunt
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Highest 2 Lowest
Nouvelle Vague
The Smashing Machine
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. My Father’s Shadow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Below the Clouds
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8)(-1)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Snow White (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
F1
Bugonia
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
10. After the Hunt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Hedda
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E) – listed as TBD
2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+1) – listed as TBD
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-1)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blue Moon
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)
5. F1 (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Warfare (PR: 7) (-2)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Bus
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Hamnet, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Bugonia, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominations
F1, KPop: Demon Hunters, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Zootopia 2
Leonardo DiCaprio looks to conquer all multiplex foes in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, but faces competition from Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie and The Strangers – Chapter 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Battle is favored to come out ahead based on major Oscar buzz and star power. I’m projecting high 20s as it looks to leg out impressively in subsequent frames.
Dollhouse is more of a wildcard. Based on a popular Netflix kids show, the mix of live-action and animation could surpass my low 20s estimate and come in 1st under the best case scenario.
I’m not looking for much out of The Strangers. Last year’s predecessor managed to top $10 million out of the gate. I suspect the follow-up will not. It might even fall behind the fourth frame of The Conjuring though I’ll give it the slight benefit of the doubt.
The fresh trio should place 1-3. As for holdovers, The Conjuring: Last Rites may see a smaller decline than Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle or Him.
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. One Battle After Another
Predicted Gross: $27 million
2. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
3. The Strangers – Chapter 2
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
4. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
6. Him
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
Box Office Results (September 19-21)
After an explosive record setting premiere for an anime title, Demon Slayer managed to stay atop the charts for a second weekend despite a 75% plummet (not unexpected). It grossed $17.3 million and just topped my $16.2 million call for $104 million thus far.
Sports themed horror pic Him with Marlon Wayans underwhelmed (poor reviews didn’t help) in the runner-spot position with $13.2 million. I was more generous at $20.3 million and thought it would come out on top. Look for about a 60% or more ease in weekend #2.
The Conjuring: Last Rites was third with $12.2 million, on pace with my $12.4 million prediction. The three-week take is $150 million.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale was fourth with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) for $31 million in two weeks.
The Long Walk rounded out the top five in its sophomore outing with $6.2 million. My guesstimate? $6.2 million! The ten-day gross is $22 million.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell, despite its magnetic leads, bombed in sixth with a bleak $3.2 million. I went a bit higher at $4.8 million.
Finally, The Senior from Angel Studios (with an inspiration football theme) was deflated in seventh with $2.6 million compared to my $3.3 million projection.
The Strangers – Chapter 2 finds its home in multiplexes on September 26th. The Lionsgate effort is the follow-up to last year’s (you guessed it) The Strangers: Chapter 1. Why they went with a hyphen this time around instead of the predecessor’s colon remains a compelling mystery. Renny Harlin returns in the director’s chair with Madelaine Petsch, Gabriel Basso and Ema Horvath starring.
Marking the fourth overall pic in the franchise that began in 2008, this chapter will hope to keep pace with what 2024’s entry accomplished. It opened to $11.8 million with a $35 million eventual domestic take. There could be diminishing returns (a horror movie eventually has to underperform… right?) and this could be the first Strangers not to exceed $10 million in its debut.
The Strangers – Chapter 2 opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million
For my One Battle After Another prediction, click here:
Finnish set drama The Summer Book, based on Tove Jansson’s 1972 novel, premiered at the London Film Festival nearly a year ago. Directed by Charlie McDowell, it finally receives a limited theatrical bow this weekend. Glenn Close, Emily Matthews and Anders Danielsen Lie star.
The theatrical version is not as acclaimed as its source material with 74% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 Metacritic. Eight-time Oscar nominee Close (who famously has yet to win) does have a shot at a ninth nod in 2025. It would be in supporting for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery and not this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Based on the popular Netflix kids show that began in 2021, Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie hopes to welcome family audiences beginning September 26th. The fantasy comedy mix of live-action and animation is directed by Ryan Crego with Laila Lockhart Kraner reprising her leading role from the series. Costars include Gloria Estefan, Ego Nwodim, Kyle Mooney, Melissa Villaseñor, Fortune Feimster, and Kristen Wiig (lots of SNL alum). Thomas Lennon and Jason Mantzoukas provide voice work contributions.
Dollhouse could benefit by catering to a young female audience and the lack of competition from kid centric features. The rosiest of projections have this approaching $30 million and that could put it in contention for 1st place over One Battle After Another. I doubt it gets that high and I’ll say high teens low 20s is the likelier scenario.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million
For my One Battle After Another prediction, click here:
Warner Bros hopes One Battle After Another rides a wave of critical kudos and Oscar buzz to a stellar opening on September 26th. The action comedy is the latest effort from auteur Paul Thomas Anderson with Leonardo DiCaprio headlining. Costars include Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti.
Sporting a budget reportedly north of $130 million, reviews indicate it will be a major awards player this season. Rotten Tomatoes is at 97% with 96 on Metacritic. This has been a huge year for WB with hits including A Minecraft Movie, Sinners, Final Destination Bloodlines, F1, Superman, Weapons and The Conjuring: Last Rites. This could be another with its star power and building word-of-mouth.
That said, this should start out slower than all of the above and seek to leg out impressively over subsequent frames. Low 20s is probably the floor and I’ll say it manages close to $30 million at the outset.
One Battle After Another opening weekend prediction: $27 million
For my Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie prediction, click here:
Based on the first trailer five months ago, I didn’t know what to make of Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had it parked in 11th (just on the outside looking in) in Best Picture for weeks. A few days ago, early word-of-mouth emerged that it was something special and today’s lapsing of the review embargo accentuates the buzz. Out September 26th, Battle has established itself as a major awards player. Leonardo DiCaprio headlines a cast including Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti in her first big screen role.
A mix of different genres including action, comedy and thriller fused with political commentary, Battle stands at a noteworthy 96% on Rotten Tomatoes with 97 on Metacritic. It is highly possible this will be the best reviewed picture of 2025. When I updated my predictions four days ago, I ranked this 1st in Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Nothing I see today changes that dynamic. Instead it enhances it. This would mark Anderson’s fourth BP nominee with the others being 2007’s There Will Be Blood, 2017’s Phantom Thread and 2021’s Licorice Pizza (he was nominated for his direction with all three as well). Anderson would be up for his sixth screenwriting prize after Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Blood, Inherent Vice and Pizza. He has yet to take home gold and that may be about to change.
Nominations down the line in Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Original Score (by Jonny Greenwood) and perhaps Sound could be in the mix. Warner Bros is going to have their hands full campaigning for this and Sinners in multiple races against one another. The studio may end up racking up a host of victories between the two.
Moving to the ensemble, DiCaprio will be vying for his seventh at bat (his sole win came for 2015’s The Revenant). His placement in lead Actor is not guaranteed. Simply put, plenty of voters may take him for granted. He wasn’t nominated for his two titles that won BP (Titanic and The Departed). Nevertheless the film’s momentum may get him in the quintet.
For months, prognosticators have wondered whether Hall, Taylor or Infiniti will be the smart play in Supporting Actress. Reaction suggests Taylor is the most likely to make the cut, but that Infiniti could do so as well.
Mr. Penn (a two-time Best Actor recipient for 2003’s Mystic River and 2008’s Milk) looks to nab his inaugural Supporting Actor mention and sixth nom overall. It would be his first since Milk seventeen years ago.
Bottom line: it could be said that Sinners, Hamnet and Sentimental Value all have win narratives for the biggest prize of all. Now we certainly have Another. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The fact that A Big Bold Beautiful Journey skipped the recent film festival circuit might have been a clue that the studio was worried about its critical prospects. From acclaimed director Kogonada (Columbus, After Yang), the fantasy romance stars Margot Robbie (in her first major project since Barbie) and Colin Farrell with Kevin Kline and Phoebe Waller-Bridge providing support.
That antenna about it avoiding Telluride or Venice or Toronto appears in tune. Many reviews are calling this a misfire with 56% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 41 Metacritic. Despite some appreciation for technical aspects, the Academy won’t be looking into nominations for this Journey. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The box office should come down to Earth a bit this weekend after Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle smashed the opening weekend record for an anime title. We have football themed horror thriller Him starring Marlon Wayans, fantastical drama A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell and football themed inspirational tale The Senior featuring Michael Chiklis opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Him, from Jordan Peele’s production house, should have bragging rights in 1st position though my low 20s take puts it well behind what other recent horror flicks have achieved.
The other newcomers might not make the top 5. Journey is a head scratcher. As I pointed out in the long post, this is Robbie’s first significant project since Barbie and you’d think there would be more hype. My mid single digits estimate has it in sixth.
As for The Senior, Angel Studios dusted it off after it premiered at a Floridian film festival two years back. Their marketing might get this to mid single digits (if they’re lucky) for seventh place.
Demon Slayer indeed slayed this past weekend (more on that below). These types of anime offerings are typically front loaded and I expect that to be case here. A sophomore drop in the mid to high 70s would give it mid teens and it certainly could repeat in 1st if Him underwhelms.
Being that I’m unconvinced about Journey and The Senior, holdovers The Conjuring: Last Rites, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and The Long Walk could populate the rest of the high five.
Here’s how I see the top 7 shaking out:
1. Him
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
2. Demon Slayer: Kimsetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
3. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
4. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
5. The Long Walk
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
6. A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
7. The Senior
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (September 12-14)
Demon Slayer (I’ve tired of writing the rest of its name) lived up to its late breaking hype with a gargantuan haul of $70.6 million, above my $64.6 million projection. The Crunchyroll release capitalized on unprecedented domestic interest in the genre as it attained the status of an event picture.
The Conjuring: Last Rites, after its own huge start, dropped an understandable 69% to second with $25.6 million. I predicted a tad more at $28.5 million. The two-week tally is a scary good $130 million as it nears the $137 million franchise record held by 2013’s original.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale managed to slightly outdo its 2022 predecessor in third with $18.1 million. My guesstimate? $18.1 million! This should also be front loaded and I’m thinking a low to mid 60s fall for this weekend.
Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk was fourth with $11.7 million compared to my $8.7 million call. Solid critical reaction likely helped push it past double digits.
The 30th anniversary re-release of Pixar’s inaugural effort Toy Story rounded out the top five with $3.4 million. I didn’t do a prediction for it. The additional dollars brought its three decade old total to $195 million (or over $400 million stateside adjusted for inflation).
Finally, mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues flopped in ninth (at least it didn’t go to 11th) with $1.6 million. I was more generous at $3.4 million as interest wasn’t present for the sequel to the classic 1984 original.
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