Raoul Peck, whose acclaimed 2016 feature I Am Not Your Negro was nominated for Best Documentary Feature, could find himself in contention nine years later with Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5. Focused on the life of George Orwell while paralleling current events, Damian Lewis narrates as the 1984 writer.
The Neon distributed effort is out today with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 74 Metacritic. The reaction is not as rapturous as Peck’s predecessor. However, with the right push (something Neon is capable of), don’t be surprised if this makes the shortlist of docs later this year. It it does, it has a shot to make the quintet though winning is highly improbable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Republic Pictures has opened Shell a year plus after it premiered at 2024’s Toronto Film Festival. From Max Minghella (making his second directorial feature after being known more for acting), the satire with sci-fi and horror elements stars Elisabeth Moss and Kate Hudson with Kaia Gerber and Elizabeth Berkley providing support.
When Shell received the festival treatment, it did so at the same time as Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. Many reviews have compared the films to each other thematically. The big difference? Critical reaction to Shell isn’t nearly as strong with 56% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 64 Metacritic.
Fargeat’s movie garnered five Academy noms including Best Picture and was an unexpected box office success. Shell is receiving a limited theatrical release but it’s basically straight to VOD. It will not generate the awards chatter that greeted The Substance. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving 15 years after a sequel that followed the original by 28 years, Tron: Ares hits theaters October 10th. Disney’s sci-fi action threequel has Joachim Rønning taking over directorial duties from Joseph Kosinski, who made 2010’s Tron: Legacy before helming Top Gun: Maverick and F1. Jared Leto, Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith, Hasan Minhaj, Arturo Castro, Gillian Anderson and Jeff Bridges (reprising his role from the first two) star.
The franchise certainly has its followers though it’s fair to wonder if younger viewers will turn out. They might not be as familiar with the source material from 2010 (let alone 1982). Legacy performed decently with a $44 million opening and $172 eventual domestic gross. It made just under $400 million worldwide. Ares would be fortunate to replicate that and projections have it starting in the same range (not adjusted for inflation). I’ll say this manages just under that figure.
Tron: Ares opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million
Just as she will on the music charts starting Friday, the biggest pop star in the universe seeks to dominate the box office rankings with Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. We also have Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt in the MMA biopic The Smashing Machine, the re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water and canine centric horror tale Good Boy out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Coinciding with the release of her 12th studio album, Showgirl looks to kick up impressive earnings for its engagement lasting only this weekend. While it’s unlikely to approach the $93 million generated out of the gate by her Eras Tour doc in 2023, I believe it’ll surpass the $40 million forecasts and reach higher 40s. As a general rule, take the over when it comes to Taylor.
The Smashing Machine will compete for adult eyeballs with the second weekend of One Battle After Another. My low teens take would put it in third for a so-so showing.
While audiences await threequel James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash this December, I have the re-release of The Way of Water in mid single digits and rounding out the high five.
My lower single digits estimate at $2.8 million for Good Boy leaves it outside the top five.
As for holdovers, Battle came in at the lower end of its expected range (more on that below). However, awards buzz and the Cinemascore grade of A might mean a meager drop. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie didn’t pack in family crowds, but lack of competition for kids (though plenty of them might see Ms. Swift) could mean a decline around 40% or less.
Here’s I have it all shaking out:
1. Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl
Predicted Gross: $48.6 million
2. One Battle After Another
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
3. The Smashing Machine
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Avatar: The Way of Water re-release
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
Box Office Results (September 26-28)
Paul Thomas Anderson’s acclaimed One Battle After Another certainly set a record for his openings. Yet the $22 million debut for Leonardo DiCaprio’s latest came in lower than my $27 million prediction. It will hope for (and should achieve) smallish dips in the coming weeks due to the aforementioned word-of-mouth.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was second with an unimpressive $13.6 million, well under my $20.3 million call. Based on the Netflix TV show, plenty of viewers opted to stay home.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle was third in weekend #3 with $7.1 million and ahead of my $5.8 million projection. The anime record holder has amassed $118 million stateside.
The Conjuring: Last Rites was fourth in weekend #4 at $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) as the sequel’s tally is $161 million.
The Strangers – Chapter 2 sputtered in fifth with $5.8 million, under my $6.7 million take. This scary sequel failed to approach the double digits that its predecessor last year managed.
Speaking of underwhelming fright fest performances, Him tumbled 73% in sixth with $3.5 million. I was more generous at $5.1 million as its two-week earnings are $20 million.
On the rare occasion that Daniel Day-Lewis makes a movie, it immediately becomes a potential awards player. The English legend is one of just seven people who’ve won more than two acting Oscars with his three victories represented by 1989’s My Left Foot, 2007’s There Will Be Blood and 2012’s Lincoln. He nabbed three additional lead Actor nods for 1993’s In the Name of the Father, 2002’s Gangs of New York and 2017’s Phantom Thread.
Anemone marks his first role since Thread eight years ago and it premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its semi-wide release next Friday. The family drama is also a family affair as son Ronan Day-Lewis makes his behind the camera debut. The director and his dad share credit on the screenplay. Sean Bean, Samantha Morton and Samuel Bottomley round out the cast.
Early word-of-mouth from the Big Apple indicates its star gives a magnetic performance with a couple of key monologues, including one that’s reportedly too filthy for an Oscar clip. Buzz for the film itself is more mixed with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. This is highly unlikely to contend for Best Picture, Director or Original Screenplay.
Yet in a Best Actor competition that is notably open at press time, Day-Lewis could certainly squeeze in. Considering the varied reaction to the pic itself, I don’t envision him making a fourth trip to the Academy’s podium. **If he did, he’d become just the second individual to do so and join Katherine Hepburn with that distinction.
Beyond the three-time winner, Anemone could be in the mix for its cinematography. If Day-Lewis receives his seventh nom, Bean and Morton could ride his coattails to supporting mentions. Both are being heralded for their contributions. For Bean, it would mark his first at-bat with Morton going for a third mention behind 1999’s Sweet and Lowdown and 2003’s In America. Their nominations seem less probable their co-star’s. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As an NYC poet, Willem Dafoe’s character is subject to the unanticipated Late Fame of the title. Kent Jones directs the drama which has screened at the Venice and New York festivals. Greta Lee and Edmund Donovan costar.
Based on a posthumously released novella from Arthur Schnitzler and adapted by Samy Burch (who received an Adapted Screenplay nod for 2023’s May December), Fame is generating mostly complimentary early reviews. Rotten Tomatoes is at 85% with 76 on Metacritic.
If Fame were to contend for awards, it would be with Dafoe’s performance. The veteran would be vying for his fifth gold statue. His last try was for 2018’s At Eternity’s Gate in the lead derby. Dafoe’s previous three attempts were in supporting for 1986’s Platoon, 2000’s Shadow of the Vampire and 2017’s The Florida Project. He’s yet to win.
Unlike seven years ago, Best Actor is already looking too crowded for a fifth nod to be realistic. That’s unless precursors provide him with surprise mentions. We’re also not even sure that Fame will materialize as a 2025 calendar play so that doesn’t help. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Retriever Indy is said to carry Good Boy on his paws as the horror flick debuts October 3rd. After premiering at South by Southwest in the spring, encouraging word-of-mouth (95% RT, 71 Metacritic) and a memorable trailer eventually led the haunted house tale (told from the canine character’s perspective) to a wide release pattern. Ben Leonberg directs and cowrites with a human cast consisting of Shane Jensen, Arielle Friedman and Larry Fessenden.
Clocking in at a brisk 72 minutes, a best case scenario might be higher single digits. I’ll be keeping an eye out for a theater count as that could alter the estimate, but I’ll say lower single digits is the likelier outcome.
Good Boy opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
Before the third edition of James Cameron’s money minting franchise arrives in December, predecessor Avatar: The Way of Water re-releases on October 3rd. Originally out in December 2022, the sci-fi epic looks to add to its $684 million in domestic dollars (good for 7th all-time) and excite moviegoers for Avatar: Fire an Ash.
This is not a new release pattern for 20th Century Studios. In September 2022, the first Avatar (the 4th biggest stateside grosser ever) had a return engagement in multiplexes. It added $10.5 million in its first 3 days.
The slightly diminishing (though still potent) results that greeted Water should apply once again. The re-release of 2009’s original was likely assisted by a longer lag time than what we have here. Nevertheless I’ll saythis return engagement still manages mid single digits.
Avatar: The Way of Water re-release opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
Opening tomorrow, crime thriller Dead of Winter is set in the frozen Minnesotan tundra with a high profile actress headlining. Other than the accents, that might be where the Fargo comparisons stop. Brian Kirk directs Emma Thompson as a widow who happens upon a kidnapping plot. Judy Greer, Marc Menchaca, Laurel Marsden and Brian F. O’Byrne provide support.
The majority of reviews are not cold, but also not raves. Rotten Tomatoes is at 75% with 67 on Metacritic. Critics are appreciative of Thompson (a 1992 Best Actress winner for Howards End) and Greer playing against type. Winter is keeping a low profile and don’t expect awards bodies to warm up to it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Dwayne Johnson seeks rock solid returns when The Smashing Machine enters the box office ring on October 3rd. Marking the solo directorial debut of Benny Safdie (brother Josh has his own with Marty Supreme in December), Johnson stars as MMA fighter Mark Kerr with Emily Blunt as his wife. The supporting cast includes Ryan Bader, Bas Rutten and Oleksandr Usyk (all from the real life fight world).
Seen as Johnson’s first legit bid for awards consideration, Machine debuted at Venice to mostly positive reviews (75% RT, 69 Metacritic). Steering away from broad based action and comedy (often set in jungles), A24 hopes the former wrestler’s latest plays well throughout October.
The MMA factor could help this get past my projection, but I don’t think the buzz is strong enough for this to reach $20 million. Even mid to high teens could be a challenge.
The Smashing Machine opening weekend prediction: $13.7 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
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