After showing up as a surprise screening at the Toronto Film Festival nearly a year ago, Biosphere is in limited theatrical release and on demand July 7th. It marks the directorial debut of Mel Eslyn with Sterling K. Brown and Mark Duplass (who co-scripted with the filmmaker) as the last two men on earth.
On a side note, I was at that last minute programmed debut in our neighbor to the north last September (sitting two rows in front of the leads). From my perspective, there are some memorable moments and surprises in the pic. It’s also comedically and dramatically uneven at times despite committed performances from its only two actors.
The critical reaction is of the mixed variety as well with an 81% Rotten Tomatoes score. Some of those fresh ratings point out negative aspects. With a far out storyline that I won’t spoil, this is likely a little too niche for awards voters to take notice. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Between No Hard Feelings and this Friday’s Joy Ride, the raunchy comedy is back in multiplexes for the summer of 2023. The latter centers on four women (Ashley Park, Sherry Cola, Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Oscar nominee Stephanie Hsu, Sabrina Wu) on an international road trip. Costars include Ronny Chieng, Lori Tann Chinn, David Denman, and Annie Mumolo. Adele Lim makes her directorial debut. She’s best known for cowriting 2018’s Crazy Rich Asians (which the Academy surprisingly completely ignored) and Disney’s 2021 animated pic Raya and the Last Dragon (which nabbed an Animated Feature nomination).
Since its premiere back in March at South by Southwest, buzz for Ride has been glowing. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is parked at 97% as the Lionsgate release hopes to have sleeper potential at the box office. Its awards prospects could be tied to that. If it achieves a high profile, perhaps an Original Screenplay nod is doable. I will note, however, that this genre is not exactly a favorite of the voters.
A more likely scenario is the Golden Globes taking notice in the Musical/Comedy race where Crazy Rich Asians did compete. It could be a reach, but the reviews are there for it to occur. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Catherine Hardwicke’s Prisoner’s Daughter is one of the pics that failed to generate any buzz out of the Toronto Film Festival last fall. The drama casts Brian Cox as a terminally ill felon attempting to reconnect with his daughter played by Kate Beckinsale. Costars include Christopher Convery, Jon Huertas, and Ernie Hudson.
The film is out this weekend in limited fashion. Despite Cox’s recent visibility and acclaim in HBO’s smash Succession, Daughter has received scant promotion. Reviews are mostly weak with a 47% Rotten Tomatoes score.
I saw it in Toronto and can attest to its mediocrity. Hardwicke has been in the Oscar mix before when she directed Holly Hunter to a Supporting Actress nod in her 2003 breakout Thirteen. To mass audiences, the filmmaker is best known for 2008’s Twilight.
Despite Cox receiving some solid notices, this will most assuredly be unlucky when it comes to awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Adele Kim, best known for cowriting 2018’s smash surprise hit Crazy Rich Asians, makes her directorial debut with Joy Ride on July 7th. The raunchy comedy, which premiered at South by Southwest to impressive reviews, stars Ashley Park, Sherry Cola, recent Oscar nominee Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once, Sabrina Wu, Ronny Chieng, Annie Mumolo, David Denman, and Lori Tan Chinn.
The road trip pic is another hard R laugher in a genre underrepresented in recent years. There’s been a bit of a comeback this summer as it follows No Hard Feelings by two weeks and precedes August’s Strays.
With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, this could manage to ride its festival buzz to a debut above $10 million. I’m going say it falls just short.
Joy Ride opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
For my Insidious: The Red Door prediction, click here:
Sony hopes for happy horror returns when Insidious: The Red Door opens on July 7th. The fifth feature in the franchise that began in 2010, costar Patrick Wilson takes over the directorial reins. Joining him in the cast are Ty Simpkins, Rose Byrne, Andrew Astor, and Lin Shaye.
The PG-13 supernatural saga is the first Insidious entry in five and a half years. It is said to serve to serve as a direct sequel to parts 1 and 2. 2013’s second chapter was the financial zenith with a $40 million premiere and $83 million eventual domestic take. Chapter 3 in 2015 did $22 million out of the gate and $52 million overall. 2018’s Insidious: The Last Key improved on its predecessor with $29 million in its initial weekend and $67 million total.
Door could be helped with the lack of genre fare in the marketplace (its TV teaser spot with Wilson getting a frightening MRI is pretty effective too). I don’t think it’ll quite reach the near $30 million of Key, but mid 20s sounds like the correct prognosis.
Insidious: The Red Door opening weekend prediction: $25.2 million
The coming-of-age fantasy Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken joins a crowded animated marketplace when it debuts this weekend. The DreamWorks project may come in behind holdovers Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Pixar’s Elemental on the charts. Awards prospects for Kirk DeMicco’s latest directorial effort may also find it playing catch up with those titles.
Reviews for Kraken are at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes though the positive notices aren’t exactly gushing. DeMicco has been in the Animated Feature mix before with 2013’s The Croods. His follow-up, 2021’s Vivo, had a better RT score than Ruby and failed to make that year’s quintet in the competition.
We know Spidey will be a force to reckon with for the 96th Academy Awards. It’s easily the frontrunner and that may not change. Elemental is likely to grab a spot. We are awaiting potential heavy hitters like July’s How Do You Live? from Hayao Miyazaki and Disney’s Wish this fall.
If those pics and others don’t pan out, perhaps Kraken could nab the fifth slot. I wouldn’t bet on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have my estimate for Ruby Gillman from to $10.8M to $7.8M, which puts it in fifth instead of fourth.
Harrison Ford hopes to retire his iconic character with boffo box office returns as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny whips into theaters. We also have DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken seeking success amid serious competition. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be perused here:
Disney might not have done itself any favors when it screened Destiny last month at the Cannes Film Festival. The critical reaction was rather weak as it sits with 62% on Rotten Tomatoes. The fifth entry in the franchise’s much maligned 2008 predecessor Kingdom of the Crystal Skull managed 77%. I suspect that expectations should be tempered and I have it hitting mid 60s for what would be considered a significantly disappointing beginning.
Slots 2-4 should be quite animated with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Elemental losing around 30-35%. That could put both of them ahead of Ruby. The fact that it’s not based on known IP won’t help and neither will the level of competition. I have it barely topping $10 million for a fourth place start.
No Hard Feelings should round out the top five with a 40% range decline in its sophomore frame.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Predicted Gross: $65.3 million
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
3. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. No Hard Feelings
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (June 23-25)
Thanks to the disastrous performance of The Flash (we’ll get there shortly), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swung back into 1st place in week #4. The acclaimed animated sequel took in $19 million. I was right on target with $18.9 million and it’s up to a terrific $316 million with $400 million in its sights.
Pixar’s Elemental, after a poor premiere, was on less shaky ground in its follow-up outing. The A Cinemascore grade probably helped as it dropped a commendable 38% at $18.4 million (I went lower with $16.8 million). That’s the smallest Pixar sophomore frame downslide since Up 14 years ago. The total is $65 million in ten days.
The Flash… wow. After a shockingly low $55 million opening, the DCEU debacle plunged 72% and landed in third with only $15.1 million. I was more generous at $17.5 million. The ten-day take is $87 million and it should be out of the top five in only its third go-round. Embarrassing.
Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings debuted in fourth with $15 million, exceeding my call of $11.7 million. For its genre, that’s a pretty solid haul as comedies have struggled in recent years. It should manage to hold up decently in subsequent weekends.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $11.7 million, rising above my $9.3 million projection. The three-week gross is $123 million.
Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expanded nationwide and nabbed the highest per theater average on the chart. The star-studded tale made an impressive $9 million and went above my $7.6 million guesstimate. It’s at $10.2 million when factoring its limited release dollars from the previous weekend.
Finally, The Little Mermaid was seventh with $8.5 million (I said $7 million) to bring its earnings to $270 million in five weeks.
For my last forecast for the month of June, not a lot has changed in my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. Viola Davis (Air) is back in Supporting Actress over Julianne Moore (May December). In the screenplay contests, I’ve elevated Anatomy of a Fall over May December in the original derby. For Adapted Screenplay, Oppenheimer jumps into the top five over Poor Things. It is worth noting that while I don’t have animated box office behemoth Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse in my BP ten, it does jump seven positions to number 12.
When I do my initial July projections in a couple of weeks, we might have some buzz for potential heavy hitters Oppenheimer and Barbie as they each ready their debuts on July 21st.
We have seen our first peeks at fall contenders such as Challengers, Priscilla, Drive-Away Dolls, and Dumb Money over the past few days via their trailers. Truth be told, this is a slow time for awards prognosticating. This will change before we know it with festival season around the corner.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 19) (+7)
13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Barbie (PR: 15) (+1)
15. May December (PR: 12) (-3)
16. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Challengers (PR: 13) (-4)
18. Napoleon (PR: 15) (-3)
19. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Rustin (PR: 22) (+2)
21. The Killer (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+2)
23. The Book of Clarence (PR: 18) (-5)
24. Ferrari (PR: 25) (+1)
25. How Do You Live? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Flint Strong (moved to 2024)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E()
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Todd Haynes, May December
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12 )(E)
13. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (E)
11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mike Faist, Challengers (moved to Supporting Actor)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (E)
14. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong
Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. May December (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)
10. Challengers (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 2) (+1)
12. Rustin (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (E)
15. Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Monster
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
There’s a grounded Unbreakable vibe that permeates parts of Gina Prince-Bythewood’s The Old Guard. In a cinematic universe where comic book adaptations are hurled at us every couple of months, this R-rated Netflix pic manages to frequently feel fresh and captivating. There’s a less is more spirit as the screenplay (from Greg Rucka based on his own graphic novel) sets the table for inevitable sequels. That’s not to say there aren’t a fair share of shoot-em-up video game style battles. There are and they’re a cut above some others.
Andy (Charlize Theron) leads a group of fighters as we open on their assignment to rescue abducted young girls in Sudan. Her teams consists of Booker (Matthias Schoenaerts) and Joe (Marwan Kenzari) and Nicky (Luca Marinelli), who are also a couple. Their assigner is CIA contact Copley (Chiwetel Ejiofor). If Danny Glover’s Roger Murtaugh complained about being too old for his job (he put it another way), he should’ve met this squad. The quartet is immortal. Andy can’t even remember her age (we’re talking thousands of years) while the others mark their existence in centuries. They’re not famous like The Avengers and the modern world makes it trickier for them to stay inconspicuous. The group can be riddled with machine gun fire and bounce back within a few seconds. That makes them, of course, lethal weapons.
Their latest gig turns out to be a double cross involving pharmaceutical company CEO Steven Merrick (Harry Melling). We know he’s bad because his company logo is often ominously panned to before he lays out his plans. They involve capturing the immortals to study their priceless DNA. Merrick only has profit on his mind even if that means locking up his subjects with his private army guarding them. His associate Copley’s reasonings are a bit more noble.
The eternal foursome becomes a quintet with American soldier Nile (KiKi Layne). After her tour of duty ends violently, she miraculously recovers and confounds her coworkers. Andy and team come to the rescue as they must explain her new undying circumstances (she’s the first new member of the exclusive club in over 200 years). With Merrick attempting to prescribe their captures, the well-choreographed action sequences commence.
Rucka’s script weaves in occasional flashbacks of Andy’s past that reveal other associates. It turns out nothing may last forever even though our main warrior probably fought alongside Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan and partied with Keith Richards. These callbacks to history succeed in elevating anticipation for future installments.
If there’s as flaw in The Old Guard, it’s the most common of its sort. Melling’s villain isn’t exactly fleshed out. We’ve become used to the antagonists being a weak link. The preachy tone about the industry he works for can sometimes come across as clumsy and there’s the lingering knowledge that these heroes have likely fought far more interesting foes.
Yet I welcomed the approach of letting the vast backstory of the main characters have gradual reveals that are surely still formulating. Some origin stories play like the duller forward to more enticing chapters. That’s not the case here and with the talented Theron leading the charge, The Old Guard could turn out to be an enduring title in the 21st century’s preeminent genre.
Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have revised my prediction from $10.8 million down to $7.8 million
DreamWorks is banking on young girls and their parents depositing their money and time into Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken when it debuts June 30th. The animated coming-of-age fantasy is directed by Kirk DeMicco, who helmed blockbuster The Croods for the studio a decade ago. Lana Condor voices the high school sophomore title character. Other performers mic’d up include Toni Collette, Annie Murphy, Sam Richardson, Colman Domingo, Will Forte, Liza Koshy, and Jane Fonda.
The studio just had a sizable hit with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish over the holidays and they have future entries in the Trolls and Kung Fu Panda series on deck. Kraken has the disadvantage of not being based on known IP and following Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Pixar’s Elemental.
There doesn’t seem to be much chatter for this one. If Elemental couldn’t hit $30 million out of the gate, I question whether Gillman can reach half of that number. I’ll project that it falls short for an underwhelming premiere.
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
For my Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny prediction, click here:
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