One Life has had its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival as it seeks one nomination in particular from awards voters. From director James Hawes, it stars Anthony Hopkins as the real-life rescuer of Jewish children before the atrocities of the Holocaust. Johnny Flynn plays the hunger version of his character with Helena Bonham Carter, Lena Olin, and Jonathan Pryce in the supporting cast.
Early reviews put it at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. The stateside release date is TBD though it should be out by year’s end. The bulk of the reaction indicates this is not a BP contender. However, much praise is being heaped on Hopkins. This seems like the type of role that might be bait for the Academy.
As has been discussed in the past couple of weeks, the lead actor race is shaping up to be a barnburner. Surefire contenders (to name just five) include Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). Had Hopkins not won Best Actor just three years ago for The Father (his second after 1991’s The Silence of the Lambs), I might list him with that quintet. As of now, he could get in but I think he’s on the outside. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ellen Kuras is best known for her cinematography (including Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) and she makes her directorial debut with Lee. Kate Winslet stars in the true life tale of a model turned WWII war photographer. The supporting cast includes Alexander Skarsgård, Andrea Riseborough, Marion Cotillard, Josh O’Connor, Noémie Merlant, and Andy Samberg.
Reaction from its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival is mostly complimentary though not effusive. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is 75%. Winslet and surprisingly Samberg are getting the lions share of kudos. The only real awards play is Winslet, who would be gunning for nomination #8 (her sole Actress win came for 2008’s The Reader). She could make the cut, but the lead category is already packed. Winslet is already behind others like Emma Stone (Poor Things), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) in my view. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is finally coming out. Seriously. After multiple COVID delays and other postponements (like reshooting Armie Hammer’s parts with Will Arnett), the true life sports dramedy hits theaters November 17th and has been unveiled at the Toronto Film Festival. Michael Fassbender stars as a down on his luck coach tasked with leading the winless American Samoa soccer squad. Oscar Kightley, Kaimana, David Fane, Rachel House, the aforementioned Arnett, Uli Latukefu, and Elisabeth Moss costar.
Four years ago, the director/writer’s Jojo Rabbit was an awards player with six Oscar nominations and a victory for Waititi in Adapted Screenplay. Goal is being called a crowd pleaser based on Canadian reaction. However, the reviews are mixed with 71% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Based on a 2014 documentary, I doubt we’ll see Adapted Screenplay mentions this time or any other nominations for that matter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
No, I’m not rethinking my 2022 decision to forego an Oscar Predictions post on the Liam Neeson action flick Memory. This is the write-up for the same monikered Michel Franco drama that premiered at the Venice Film Festival. The somber drama is led by Jessica Chastain (2021’s Actress winner for The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Peter Sarsgard with a supporting cast including Merritt Wever, Jessica Harper, Elsie Fisher, and Josh Charles.
The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 88% with critics particularly complimenting the performances of the two leads. The Italian fest jury took notice as Sarsgard received the Best Actor award.
Assuming this makes the domestic release calendar by year’s end (release date is still TBD), its distributor MUBI has their work cut for them to break Chastain and Sarsgard into the lead conversations. Some critics prize attention could help and I’m taking a wait and see attitude with Memory‘s prospects. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My deeper dives into big races at the Oscars arrives at Supporting Actress. If you didn’t catch my take on where Supporting Actor, you can access it here:
The Telluride and Venice and ongoing Toronto Film Festivals have helped shed some light on various hopefuls. Penelope Cruz helped herself with the Ferrari bow in Venice. Jodie Comer could be a factor for The Bikeriders (though she could also be campaigned for in lead).
One thing remains the same and has since Cannes. Lily Gladstone’s performance in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon looks like a serious frontrunner. Obviously this could change as more pictures screen. The Color Purple, for example, has plenty of possibilities (Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, Halle Bailey).
We have gotten some news during festival season in that Sandra Hüller will be showcased here for The Zone of Interest. However, she’s more likely to make the Actress cut for Anatomy of a Fall.
At this stage of the predicting game, I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10. Here’s my snapshot of where I believe we are now:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+2)
Nearly half a century ago, Sidney Lumet’s cinematic adaptation of Agatha Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express tracked down six nominations. This included a Supporting Actress victory for Ingrid Bergman.
Kenneth Branagh’s 2017 version of the mystery found decent box office success and a Production Design nom at Critics Choice. Academy voters didn’t honor it anywhere and the same holds true for follow-up Death on the Nile from last year.
The third feature in the series is A Haunting in Venice (out September 15th), based on Christie’s Hallowe’en Party. Kyle Allen, Camille Cottin, Jamie Dornan, Tina Fey, Jude Hill, Ali Khan, Emma Laird, Kelly Reilly, Riccardo Scamarcio, Michelle Yeoh, and Branagh’s Hercule Poirot make up the cast. With more horror elements than the previous pics, it hopes to scare up decent business. With the review embargo lifted, it holds the best Rotten Tomatoes score among the trio. Orient‘s is 61%, Nile is similar with 62%, and Haunting is posting 81% at this early stage (of course it could go down when more reaction comes in).
That said, Production Design and Costume Design are really the only feasible inclusions. I deduce the Academy will look to others for their final five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 80th Venice Film Festival has signed off and the Grand Jury’s verdict has honored what’s expected to be a major awards player. From 2017-2020, the four films that took the Golden Lion (the fest’s top prize) went onto receive Best Picture nominations at the Oscars: The Shape of Water (which won), Roma, Joker, and Nomadland (another victor). 2021 French pic Happening and 2022’s documentary All the Beauty and the Bloodshed bucked the trend.
Yet I would suspect the correlation between Lion and BP nominee returns in 2023 as Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is the Lion recipient. Based on reaction from Italy, Things established itself as a major contender across many categories and this assists in cementing that. Expect to read lots about this movie in my prediction posts in the weeks and months ahead.
Venice likes to spread the wealth around. Poor Things didn’t take the directing or screenplay categories or name Emma Stone as Best Actress. Instead that statue went to Cailee Spaeny as Elvis’s young bride Priscilla in Sofia Coppola’s biopic. This does nothing but help Spaeney’s chances in what appears to be an already crowded Actress derby.
Peter Sarsgard is your Best Actor for Michael Franco’s Memory (he and Jessica Chastain are drawing raves for their work). Its distributor would need to mount a shrewd campaign for Academy voters to take notice.
The fest’s runner-up trophy (the Grand Jury Prize) went to Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Evil Does Not Exist. Japan recently opted to select Perfect Days from Wim Wenders as their International Feature Film hopeful. Best Screenplay went to El Conde from Pablo Larrain, which will likely be Chile’s best best for IFF inclusion.
Poor Things was the odds on favorite for the Lion as Venice rolled along. Look for it to roar as the season continues.
Craig Gillespie’s Dumb Money is one of the higher profile debuts at the Toronto Film Festival. It recounts 2021’s life is stranger than fiction tale of stock manipulation causing GameStop to become the #1 financial property. Paul Dano, Pete Davidson, Vincent D’Onofrio, America Ferrera, Nick Offerman, Anthony Ramos, Sebastian Stan, Shailene Woodley, and Seth Rogen star.
The trailer and subject matter hinted we were entering The Big Short territory. That 2015 similarly themed pic netted 5 Academy nods, including Best Picture and a victory in Adapted Screenplay. Dumb sits at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes based on Ontario reactions. I wouldn’t completely discount it resonating with awards voters. However, I suspect Adapted Screenplay might be the only race where it has a shot of getting in (despite kudos for Davidson and Ferrera in particular for their supporting parts). In other words, anticipate it falling short of The Big Short. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Japanese animation master Hayao Miyazaki is a legendary figure in his field and the 82-year-old announced his retirement a decade ago with The Wind Rises. He even picked up an honorary Academy Award in 2014 based on his body of work which includes classics like My Neighbor Totoro, Kiki’s Delivery Service, and Princess Mononoke.
The Best Animated Feature race at the Oscars didn’t begin until 2001 so those aforementioned titles weren’t in the mix. In 2002, Miyazaki’s Spirited Away won the category’s second prize. Howl’s Moving Castle was nominated in 2005 and The Wind Rises contended in 2013 (the planned career capper losing to Frozen).
Retirement was interrupted by the filmmaker with The Boy and the Heron (titled How Do You Live? in Japan) and it is the premiere title at the Toronto Film Festival. The Studio Ghibli production came out in its native country in July and will be out domestically on December 8th.
Early stateside reviews, unsurprisingly, have resulted in a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. Heron should absolutely nab a spot in the five hopefuls in the animated competition. However, don’t expect it to ever fly past the #2 position. That’s because box office behemoth and critical darling Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse remains firmly perched in first. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Beginning today, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards slated for March 2024. Ardent readers of this here blog know that I typically update my predictions every 10-14 days.
Yet there’s been some major developments in the past week and there will be more in the week or so to come. The Telluride Film Festival just happened. Venice is ongoing and Toronto starts tonight. In other words, a whole bunch of Oscar hopefuls have just screened or are about to screen.
So for these closer looks at the four acting derbies, Best Director, and Best Picture – I’m obviously keeping all that in mind with the heavy buzz emanating from Colorado, Italy, and Ontario.
We begin with Supporting Actor. In this competition, 3 of the biggest contenders saw their movies released (or screen) prior to the September trio of festivals. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) are, of course, part of the Barbenheimer phenomenon. Both appear highly likely to be nominated. I could see a narrative develop where Downey Jr. is honored for his body of work (in addition to his strong work in the film itself) and ends up taking the trophy. This would mark his third nom after 1992’s Chaplin and 2008’s Tropic Thunder. He’s currently my #1.
A similar victory could happen with Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon (which first screened at Cannes in May). The acting legend is a two-time Oscar winner, but it’s been 43 years since he took the lead prize for Raging Bull. You have go back to 49 years for his first statue in Supporting for The Godfather Part II. A Downey Jr. or De Niro statue could be contingent on which of their movies wins BP (if one of them does). The momentum from the top prize could dwindle down to either one of them.
Before its rapturous unveiling at Venice, there was uncertainty as to whether Mark Ruffalo or Willem Dafoe would be Fox Searchlight’s strongest contender for Poor Things. The answer might be both. Ruffalo could have the slight edge, but both could make the dance. That wouldn’t be all that surprising. Three of the past four Supporting Actor quintets have seen double nominees from the same feature – The Irishman in 2019 for Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, The Power of the Dog in 2021 for Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee, and last year for The Banshees of Inisherin with Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. It’s worth mentioning that none of the six nominees took the prize.
Speaking of double nominees, it isn’t out of the question that the aforementioned Plemons could materialize for Flower Moon. Same goes for Matt Damon in Oppenheimer. I suspect they ultimately don’t make it.
Past Lives is an acclaimed drama that seems destined for a BP spot. John Magaro is sure to be placed here and he could absolutely get into the final five. There is a question as to whether his costar Teo Yoo is campaigned for in lead or here. I’ve got him in the former as of now.
If Air overperforms, I wouldn’t totally discount Ben Affleck (he’s never had an acting mention). Glenn Howerton in BlackBerry has drawn plenty of raves. He’ll win some critics prizes and could be a trendy pick for inclusion. Charles Melton was singled out for his work alongside Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore at Cannes.
Dominic Sessa could see himself in for The Holdovers (especially if Alexander Payne dramedy’s cast mates Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph make their categories).
The Maestro acting campaigns should go to Carey Mulligan and Bradley Cooper in lead and not Matt Bomer. Saltburn reactions suggest any attention will go to star Barry Keoghan and not Richard E. Grant.
And there are unseen hopefuls in the wings. Colman Domingo in The Color Purple immediately comes to mind. His nom might not happen because he’s almost surely going to make the lead Actor’s five with Rustin.
So where’s that leave us? I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10 and here’s my snapshot of the race right now!
Predicted Nominees
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
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