The animated futuristic fantasy Arco is out in limited fashion domestically this weekend for an Oscar qualifying run before a nationwide expansion early next year. From filmmaker Ugo Bienvenu, the Neon title premiered at Cannes in May with a voice cast including Margot Ringard Oldra, Oscar Tresanini, Swann Arlaud, and Alma Jodorowsky. The English dub’s faces behind the mic include Romy Fay, Juliano Krue Valdi, Will Ferrell, America Ferrera, Mark Ruffalo, Andy Samberg, and Natalie Portman (who also produces).
Critics have been consistently complimentary with 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Those numbers should be enough for this to make the Best Animated Feature quintet where I’ve had it predicted for some time. A win narrative is trickier as it is probably behind cultural phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters and the forthcoming Zootopia 2 (which has encouraging WOM and the Disney marketing muscle). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Six years after her feature Honeyland was nominated for Best International Feature Film and Best Documentary Feature, Tamara Kotevska will try to achieve the same with follow-up The Tale of Silyan. The Macedonian production marks the filmmaker’s first solo effort as Ljubomir Stefanov was her partner on previous works.
Centered on a farmer nursing an injured stork back to life, Silyan played the Venice Film Festival and was picked up by National Geographic domestically. Reviews are impressive with 100% on RT and an 84 Metacritic. A limited (and Oscar qualifying) run arrives November 28th followed by a Disney+ release. Macedonia has already announced it as their selection for the international competition.
The combo of Nat Geo and the Mouse House campaigning could bode well for its prospects. I’ve yet to list this in either IFF or Doc Feature as a possibility, but that might change with my next update. I do feel it has a stronger shot in the latter as IFF is plenty crowded already. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Three years after a comeback role in The Whale that won him an Oscar, Brendan Fraser headlines the dramedy Rental Family on November 21st. Hikari directs the apparent crowdpleaser that played the Toronto Film Festival in September. Costars include Takehiro Hira, Mari Yamamoto, Shannon Mahina Gorman, and Akira Emoto.
The Japan set Searchlight release sits at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. The 66 on Metacritic is a bit more telling. Family was seen by prognosticators as a potential Oscar contender. Its festival debut tamped down those expectations. Awards buzz might’ve helped its box office prospects.
Premiering on approximately 1600 screens, Rental may only see low single digits for starters and hope that word-of-mouth keeps its declines low in subsequent weekends.
Rental Family opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million
Writer-director Jalmari Helander reunites with leading man Jorma Tommila for the Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge on November 21st. Following up on the 2023 original which performed decently stateside, Stephen Lang and Richard Brake costar in the Sony distributed World War II era shoot-em-up.
Back in April of 2023, Sisu opened to $3.3 million on just over 1000 screens and ended with $7.3 million in its domestic coffers. The follow-up is slated to double the venue count at approximately 2000. That should mean a higher gross though the per screen average might be lower. Mid single digits is the probable result.
Sisu: Road to Revenge opening weekend prediction: $4 million
Wicked: For Good sweeps into theaters November 21st and it should eclipse what part one accomplished out of the gate last year. Jon M. Chu returns directing the second half of the saga based on the hugely popular Stephen Schwartz/Winnie Holzman Broadway play. The stage musical, of course, draws its inspiration from the written works of L. Frank Baum and 1939’s iconic The Wizard of Oz. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande are back headlining along with supporting players Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum.
Last November, Wicked drew critical kudos, 10 Oscar nominations, and a $112 million domestic opening on its way to $473 million overall stateside. The goodwill left over is expected to mean a larger debut upfront. The Universal release could contend for 2025’s largest premiere thus far. In order to accomplish that feat, it would need to surpass the $162 million that A Minecraft Movie brought in. That is certainly within Good‘s range and I wouldn’t be surprised if it manages the record. I’m putting it a bit below Minecraft‘s figure though it should play well throughout the holidays.
Wicked: For Good opening weekend prediction: $158.1 million
For my Sisu: Road to Revenge prediction, click here:
H Is for Hawk is based on an acclaimed 2014 memoir by Helen MacDonald with Claire Foy playing the author. Philippa Lowthorne directs the drama with a supporting cast including Brendan Gleeson, Denise Gough, Sam Spruell, and Lindsay Duncan. Slated for domestic distribution by Roadside Attractions in December, Hawk has already played the Telluride and London festivals.
Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% based on the few reviews out. While write-ups for the film are more on the positive with reservations side, Foy is being lauded. The Emmy winner for The Crown likely came very close to an Academy nom in Supporting Actress for 2018’s First Man. However, Roadside is not known for attracting awards voters in their campaigns. I’ve yet to have Foy in my top 10 possibilities for lead Actress. Unless precursors surprisingly start including her, don’t expect that to change. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Running Man is tracking to open atop the box office this weekend with Glen Powell in the title role. The futuristic action thriller remakes the 1987 original starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, itself was based on a 1982 Stephen King novel. Edgar Wright directs with a supporting cast including William H. Macy, Lee Pace, Michael Cera, Emilia Jones, Daniel Ezra, Jayme Lawson, Colman Domingo, and Josh Brolin.
Reviews aren’t as encouraging as what greeted last weekend’s Predator: Badlands (another effort with roots in Ah-nuld 80s releases). Rotten Tomatoes is at 66% with 59 on Metacritic. Like Badlands, the only awards race worth mentioning for Running is Visual Effects. Nothing from the early reaction indicates it has any realistic shot at contending there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my The Running Man estimate from $27.6 million to $19.6 million as reviews and word-of-mouth have stalled momentum; I am downgrading my Keeper estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million
The Running Man looks steal the box office crown as heist threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and horror pic Keeper debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Based on the Stephen King novel, sci-fi action satire The Running Man also serves as a remake of the 1987 pic with Glen Powell taking over starring duties from Arnold Schwarzenegger. I don’t think it reaches the heights of Predator: Badlands from this past weekend (more on that below), but it should place 1st in the low to mid 20s.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t includes Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, and Morgan Freeman reprising their roles from 2013 and 2016 predecessors. That’s a lengthy layover from part 2 to 3 and the second one didn’t match the original in terms of cash. I anticipate the drop-off will continue and I have See in third.
Keeper could overperform as horror titles often do, but I’m going mid single digits for a fourth place showing for the latest genre effort from the prolific Osgood Perkins.
It will be interesting to see the sophomore frame percentage decline for Predator: Badlands. 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator each debuted in the mid 20s (far below this one). They plummeted 72% and 63% respectively in their follow-up outings. The film in the franchise that performed similarly to Badlands (2004’s AVP: Alien Vs. Predator) saw a 68% dip. However, I don’t see this falling that far due to its A- Cinemascore (the strongest of the lot). Mid 50s seems more likely.
Regretting You, which showed impressive staying power last weekend, should round out the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Running Man
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
2. Predator: Badlands
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million
3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
4. Regretting You
Predicted Gross: $5 million
6. Keeper
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (November 7-9)
It took a nearly 40-year-old franchise to wake up the box office and showed that the series wasn’t over the hill as Predator: Badlands amassed $40 million. Solid word-of-mouth and positive reviews helped propel it to the highest start of the nine pictures when not adjusting for inflation. This easily eclipsed my $27.6 million prediction.
Regretting You, as mentioned, slid a teensy 15% in weekend #3 to $6.6 million compared to my $4.8 million call. The romantic drama is plugging along with $38 million thus far.
Black Phone 2 dropped from 1st to 3rd as it received $5.1 million, in line with my $4.6 million projection. The sequel has taken in $70 million after four weeks.
The inspirational early 20th century set drama Sarah’s Oil, which includes Zachary Levi among its cast, was my surprise of the weekend. It placed fourth with $4.2 million and I didn’t do a guesstimate. Scoring a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, Oil could hold up well in the coming weeks.
Historical courtroom drama Nuremberg with Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Rami Malek rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, managing to outdo my $3 million take.
Bugonia was sixth in weekend #2 at $3.4 million (ahead of my $2.7 million prediction) for $12 million after two weeks of wide release.
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc finished seventh with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) as the anime hit stands at $37 million after three weeks.
Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson’s drama Die, My Love debuted in eighth with $2.6 million, on pace with my $2.5 million estimate.
Finally, boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney was KO’d in 11th with just $1.3 million. I was more generous at $2.2 million.
Based on a 2016 graphic novel by Isabel Greenberg, the historical fantasy 100 Nights of Hero played the Venice Film Festival and closed London’s as it moves toward a December 5th domestic release. Julia Jackman directs and adapted the source material for the big screen with Emma Corrin, Nicholas Galitzine, Maika Monroe, Amir El-Masry, Charli XCX, Richard E. Grant, and Felicity Jones in the cast.
Many critics are appreciating what’s called a feminist fable to the tune of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Metacritic stands at 70 which illustrates the more measured tone of some reviews. IFC is distributing and they don’t exactly have a track record when it comes to awards campaigning. So while a down-the-line race like Production Design might be a possibility in the care of another studio, I don’t think Hero will be on the minds of voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million
Osgood Perkins releases his third horror title in under two years when Keeper arrives in theaters November 14th. The two-hander stars Tatiana Maslany and Rossif Sutherland. It was shot with a Canadian crew while the filmmaker’s predecessor The Monkey was held up during the 2023 SAG/WGA strike.
In July of 2024, Longlegs from Perkins was an unexpected hit with a $22 million debut and $74 million overall domestic haul. The aforementioned Monkey followed earlier this year in February with $14 million at the outset and $39 million total. Expectations are considerably lower for Keeper with the caveat that this genre can always overperform. With that said, horror fans have plenty to see in 2025 and I’ll project mid single digits for this (similar to what Bring Her Back did early in the summer).
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