Blogger’s Update (10/18): And it’s a big one… by lowering my projection of Killers from $38.7 million to $32.7 million, that puts Eras at #1 for the second weekend in a row.
Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio’s sixth collaboration faces off against Taylor Swift’s second cinematic touring weekend as Oscar hopeful Killers of the Flower Moon blossoms on Friday. It could shape up to be a close battle for the top spot. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Killers here:
With rave reviews and awards buzz, Moon could fill multiplexes up with adult moviegoers who turned Oppenheimer into a smash hit over the summer. While it won’t reach as high, I believe a low 30s premiere is certainly doable.
Whether that puts it in first is a huge question mark. That’s because the sophomore frame of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is tricky to figure out. The concert doc didn’t reach the lofty expectations that kept rising prior to its start (more on that below). Yet it still scored a massive debut that set every record possible for its genre. The deal that Ms. Swift cut with theaters is a unique one, to say the least. Eras is not playing on Mondays, Tuesdays, or Wednesdays. That could certainly increase the demand during the second weekend. However, it probably goes without saying that its gross is likely to be front loaded due to her fans rushing out to see it (a whole bunch of its business came from presales). I’ll be honest. I’m at a loss for how far it dips coming up. I will speculate high 60s to possibly low 70s and that would put it just behind my Killers estimate.
Holdover sequels of the horror and family variety should fill the 3-5 slots as The Exorcist: Believer, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, and Saw X look to post decent holds in the 30s-low 40s range.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $35.6 million
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Gross: $32.7 million
3. The Exorcist: Believer
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
4. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Saw X
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
Box Office Results (October 13-15)
It isn’t often that Taylor Swift doesn’t reach the levels of financial success that are anticipated, but it might have been a case of expectations being too sky high. The Eras Tour was projected to top the all-time October weekend record held by Joker at $96 million. I had it doing so with room to spare at $139.6 million. It wasn’t to be as it achieved the second largest debut at $92.8 million. By the way, that triples the previous best concert doc start held by Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour. In other words, it’s still a rather remarkable performance.
The Exorcist: Believer dropped to second with an understandable $10.9 million, a bit above my $9.7 million take. The direct sequel to the 1973 classic sits at $44 million after ten days as it hopes for meager declines as we approach Halloween.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was third with $6.8 million (on pace with my $6.6 million forecast) for $49 million after three weeks.
Saw X reaped the benefit of horror fans looking for a scare. Dropping just 28%, Jigsaw and company took in $5.6 million compared to my $4.1 million prediction. Total is $41 million thus far.
The Creator rounded out the top five at $4.3 million (I said $3.5 million) for a three-week tally of just $32 million.
Arriving over 23 years after its predecessor, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget hatches on Netflix this December. Critics got their first look at it this weekend during the London Film Festival. Sam Fell directs with a voice cast including Thandiwe Newton, Zachary Levi (taking over from Mel Gibson), Bella Ramsey, Romesh Ranganathan, Jane Horrocks, Imelda Staunton, and Miranda Richardson.
In 2000, the original Chicken Run was a critical and commercial success with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score. It arrived one year before the Academy established their Best Animated Feature race. Had it existed, it’s a safe bet that it would’ve been nominated.
Nugget is more of a question mark. Reviews are not as effusive (it’s at 83% on RT). I would put it behind two other sequels as far as its chances go behind frontrunner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. With other hopefuls like Elemental, Wish, and Nimona (among others) in the mix, there may not be enough room in the quintet for this long in the works follow-up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My mid-October Oscar predictions has Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things leading the nominations tally with an impressive 12 apiece!
Poor Things rises partly because I’m putting Willem Dafoe back in my projected Supporting Actor quintet alongside his costar Mark Ruffalo. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) over Viola Davis (Air). This is Cruz’s first appearance in my top five.
Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to my Actress five with Greta Lee (Past Lives) on the outside looking in. You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Air (PR: 12) (+1)
12. American Fiction (PR: 1) (-1)
13. Napoleon (PR: 13) (E)
14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Origin
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Barry Koeghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-1)
7. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon
Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (+4)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Settlers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Peasants
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-4)
10. The Creator (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Killers of the Flower Moon
That gives us a tally for these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
10 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple
5 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Past Lives
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Wish
1 Nominations
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge
The unconventional Biblical epic The Book of Clarence is the sophomore feature from Jeymes Samuel, who earned acclaim for his debut The Harder They Fall in 2021. It premiered at the London Film Festival prior to its planned January 12th opening stateside. LaKeith Stanfield, Omar Sy, Anna Diop, RJ Cyler, David Oyelowo, Micheal Ward, Alfre Woodard, Teyana Taylor, Caleb McLaughlin, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, James McAvoy, and Benedict Cumberbatch are included in the sprawling cast.
Originally slated for September of this year, I assumed the mid-January push included an awards qualifying run before the ball drops. That does not appear to be the case as Book should be in contention for the 97th Academy Awards.
Reviews are mostly praising its unique take on the genre with a current 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, while Stanfield and some of the tech work is being singled out, this is a long shot to be an Oscar player. So was the director’s first pic and it came up empty handed at the 94th ceremony. And frankly, the January release date indicates that Sony might not make a major push for it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After a Cannes Film Festival premiere in May that instantly turned it into a major awards contender, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon shines down on theaters October 20th. It marks the legendary filmmaker’s sixth collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio and tenth with Robert De Niro. Lily Gladstone is third lead and she’s generating Oscar buzz along with her aforementioned costars. The supporting cast includes Jesse Plemons, Tantoo Cardinal, John Lithgow, and Brendan Fraser.
Based on David Grann’s 2017 novel, the reported $200 million production was picked up by Apple TV. They chose to go the theatrical route with the three and a half hour epic (Scorsese’s predecessor The Irishman went straight to Netflix).
This summer, adults turned out in full force for Oppenheimer (as in close to a billion worldwide). A lot of moviegoers who made the trek to see Christopher Nolan’s potential Best Picture winner do the same with this potential BP recipient. My forecast puts in the upper region of its expected range. That would be close to $30-35 million and don’t be shocked if it gets past that.
Killers of the Flower Moon opening weekend prediction: $32.7 million
2016’s Raoul Peck documentary I Am Not Your Negro earned acclaim and an Oscar nomination in Best Documentary Feature. After its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, Peck’s Silver Dollar Road hits theaters in limited fashion on October 13th. An Amazon Prime streaming bow follows a week later.
An exploration of African-American land ownership, Road hasn’t quite landed the raves that Peck’s Academy contender from seven years ago did. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 76%. That may not be enough to drive it to awards attention, but the filmmaker behind it could help with exposure. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
This coming weekend should be very lucky for a songstress you may have heard of named Taylor Swift. Her cinematic airing of The Eras Tour is out on approximately 4000 screens as it looks to dominate the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The power of Swift has propelled the concert doc to hefty pre sales totaling over $100 million worldwide. I’m projecting the domestic take will fall just shy of $140 million. That would give it the third best premiere of 2023 behind only Barbie and The Super Mario Bros. Movie.
No other studio dared to open anything against Taylor and her army of Swifties. In fact, The Exorcist Believer moved up its release date to this past weekend. It had a so-so start (more on that below). With a meh C Cinemascore grade, I look for it to fall in the low to mid 60s in its sophomore frame.
The rest of the top five will be filled with holdovers likely dropping in the low to high 40s. Everything should slide a spot with PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Sax X, and The Creator populating 3-5 in their third weekends.
Here’s how I think it’ll play out:
1. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $139.6 million
2. The Exorcist: Believer
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
3. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
4. Saw X
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
5. The Creator
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
Box Office Results (October 6-8)
David Gordon Green’s take on another iconic horror franchise couldn’t come close to his Halloween numbers as The Exorcist: Believer fell slightly short of expectations. The poorly reviewed direct sequel to the 1973 classic scared up $26.4 million compared to my $31.9 million prediction. That’s not terrible, but Universal reportedly ponied up $400 million for the rights to the series with two sequels planned. A mid 20s beginning (coupled with that unimpressive Cinemascore grade) could spell trouble ahead.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was second with $11.3 million, a bit under my $12.8 million forecast. The animated sequel has grossed a sturdy $38 million in ten days of release.
Saw X had an understandable 57% decline for third with $7.8 million (I was close with $8.3 million). Jigsaw and company’s tenth go-round has $32 million in the bank thus far.
The Creator was fourth with $6.2 million (I said $5.9 million) for a disappointing $25 million in its first two weeks.
I incorrectly didn’t project numbers for The Blind and A Haunting in Venice. They were 5th and 6th respectively with $3.2 million and $2.6 million. The Blind has made $10 million in two weeks while Venice is at $35 million after four frames.
The error was placing The Nun II in fifth. It was seventh with $2.6 million. My prediction? $2.6 million! This horror sequel has achieved $81 million.
20 Days in Mariupol is a potential double threat at the 96th Academy Awards in the International Feature Film and Documentary Feature derbies. Ukrainian war correspondent Mstyslav Chernov details the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion. It premiered at Sundance and won the Audience prize for World Cinema Documentary Competition.
Reviews were uniformly strong with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Ukraine submitted Mariupol as their pick for International Feature Film. I wouldn’t completely discount the possibility that it gets in. I suspect it has a better shot in Documentary Feature where I had it ranked behind only Beyond Utopia in my update from a week ago. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
At the 94th Academy Awards honoring the pictures of 2021, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom was a surprise nominee in the International Feature Film race. It became Bhutan’s first contender in the race as it marked the debut of filmmaker Pawo Choyning Dorji.
His follow-up is The Monk and the Gun and it’s been on the fest circuit including Telluride and Toronto. The culture clash dramedy is all thumbs up at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 8 reviews.
Predictably, the Bhutanese pickers have selected it as the hopeful for awards consideration. I’m not sure the reviews are quite strong enough that it makes the quintet, but its inclusion would be less out of the blue than Dorji’s predecessor this time around. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Germany has picked The Teachers’ Lounge as its hopeful for Best International Feature Film as they try to keep their impressive track record running in this 21st century. The dramatic thriller from Ilker Çatak premiered earlier this year at the Berlin Film Festival and has continued playing the festival circuit. Leonie Benesch stars in a role earning acclaim and the pic itself stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 25 reviews.
As mentioned, the submitting nation has seen its share of successes in recent years. Just last year, All Quiet on the Western Front won the IFF derby. Others victors this century are Nowhere in Africa (2002) and The Lives of Others (2006). Six others selections have made the contending quintet.
At this early juncture, England’s The Zone of Interest and France’s The Taste of Things are probably the frontrunners for the statue. Then there’s three spots available for a host of feasible nominees. Lounge is certainly one of them and I wouldn’t underestimate it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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