Gotham Nominations: A Notebook Report

The highly unpredictable Gotham Awards released nominations today for their 2023 best. And, as expected, it was… unpredictable. There was added intrigue because the organization (dedicated to independent film) dropped their “low” budget requirements (traditionally $35 million or under) to qualify for inclusion. However, likely Oscar heavy hitters such as Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and The Color Purple took themselves out of contention.

That was not the case with Barbie, but it managed just one nomination in Outstanding Supporting Performance for Ryan Gosling. His costar from The Notebook Rachel McAdams will compete against him for her work in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. Last year, the Gothams dropped their gender divisions with ten nominees in the lead and supporting derbies. We’ll cover those momentarily.

We start with Best Feature which showcases five pictures. From 2014-16, the Gotham recipient matched the Academy’s BP with Birdman, Spotlight, and Moonlight. The same occurred in 2020 with Nomadland and last year with Everything Everywhere All at Once. In other recent years, there’s been at least one nominee that got into BP at the big dance, including The Favourite, Marriage Story, and Tár. The only recent exception in the last decade was in 2021.

This year’s contenders are Passages, Past Lives, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One. Only Past Lives seems poised to make BP at the Oscars and even that isn’t a foregone conclusion.

Andrew Haigh’s romantic ghost tale All of Us Strangers actually led all nominees with four: Screenplay, International Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Andrew Scott), and Outstanding Supporting Performance (Claire Foy).

Last year, four of the ten leading performance nominees managed Oscar nominations. That includes the two winners (Brendan Fraser for The Whale and Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once) as well as Paul Mescal (Aftersun) and Cate Blanchett (Tár). Danielle Deadwyler (Till), who was snubbed by the Academy, won.

In addition to the aforementioned Scott for Strangers, the other nine up for lead in 2023 are Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin), Lily Gladstone (The Unknown Country), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Franz Rogowski (Passages), Babetida Sadjo (Our Father, the Devil), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla), Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One), Michelle Williams (Showing Up), and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). I would argue that unlike Fraser, Yeoh, and Blanchett from the previous ceremony, none of the nominees here are guaranteed Oscar spots. Those with the best chance? Probably Lee, Wright, Spaeny, and Scott. Gladstone should get in, but it will be for Killers of the Flower Moon and not Country.

The supporting derby in 2022 yielded three eventual nominees including Supporting Actor victor Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) as well as Hong Chau (The Whale) and Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway). Quan also took the Gotham.

Our ten supporting players for this year’s ceremony are the aforementioned Foy (All of Us Strangers) and McAdams (Margaret) and Gosling (Barbie). Then there’s Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jamie Foxx (They Cloned Tyrone), Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Charles Melton (May December), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). With the exception of Foxx, I would say all nine have solid to at least feasible shots at making the Oscar cut (especially Gosling and Randolph).

How will it all shake out? Don’t look for the Gothams to provide too much guidance. Yet today’s announcement at least gives us a peek at movies and performers who could keep or gain momentum. Movies like The Holdovers, Poor Things, Anatomy of a Fall, and more that came up short today? They shouldn’t worry too much.

October 27-29 Box Office Predictions

Based on the hugely popular series of video games, the PG-13 horror flick Five Nights at Freddy’s looks to dominate the Halloween frame. It is the only wide release as October draws to a close and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Five Nights at Freddy’s Box Office Prediction

There is a wide range of possibility for Freddy’s and I think it is ready for a debut just north of $60 million. That would easily top the rest of the top five combined.

The battle for the runner-up spot will be decided by the respective third and second weekend drops for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour and Killers of the Flower Moon. The former had an understandable mid 6os plummet as Swifties wanted to rush out and see it immediately. Moon hopes for smallish declines in the frames ahead. I have Ms. Swift edging Killers as her concert film enters its third and final outing in multiplexes.

The Exorcist: Believer should be fourth with PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie rounding out the top five. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Five Nights at Freddy’s

Predicted Gross: $68.3 million

2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. The Exorcist: Believer

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

5. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (October 20-22)

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour belonged at #1 again as the record-setting concert experience drew another $33.2 million, a tad under my $35.6 million projection. That gives it a two weekend take of $131 million.

Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon came in at the bottom end of its expected range with $23.2 million. I was more generous at $32.7 million. While not a flop (especially considering it was first slated for an Apple TV streaming start), it is underwhelming considering the awards buzz, Leo star power, and $200 million reported budget. The Oscar hopeful will hope to leg out during November.

The Exorcist: Believer was third with $5.6 million compared to my $6.9 million forecast. The three-week total is a fair $54 million.

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie sat in the four spot with $4.4 million (I said $4.7 million) for $56 million after four frames.

Rounding out the top five was a holiday themed re-release of 1993’s The Nightmare Before Christmas on its 30th anniversary. The Tim Burton produced classic added another $4.2 million to its coffers. I failed to put it in the mix.

That took Saw X out of the high five in sixth with $3.6 million (I went with $4.1 million). The four-week gross is $47 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Mother of All Lies

Documentarian Asmae El Moudir delves into her family history in The Mother of All Lies, a Moroccan effort that has played Cannes and Toronto to all positive reaction. With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, I’m not sure the 7 reviews up at press time indicate that it will be a heavy awards player. There’s time for that to be rectified, but I’ll note the Critics Choice Association totally ignored it in their nominations this past week.

It is Morocco’s entry for Best International Feature Film and the odds are likely long for inclusion. The submitting nation has yet to receive a nomination despite 18 tries since 1977. If Lies gets recognized by the Academy, a nod in Documentary Feature is more realistic. I suspect 20 Days in Mariupol, which is Ukraine’s pick in IFF and Doc, stands a much better shot at the latter race than this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Mission

Amanda McBaine and Jesse Moss’s documentary The Mission is out in limited release after playing the festival circuit including Telluride and London. It examines the killing of American missionary John Allen Chau in 2018. The documentary arm of National Geographic produces.

The team behind The Mission have made acclaimed docs such as 2014’s The Overnighters and 2020’s Boys State. They have not managed to generate attention from the Academy. With an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, reviews are fine. However, I’m not confident The Mission will represent their first shot at the big dance. This has not made my top 10 possibilities in previous write-ups. Yet the prospects shot up when the Critics Choice Association named it among their 10 best for 2023 alongside surefire contenders like Beyond Utopia, 20 Days in Mariupol, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie.

Whether The Mission is mentioned in my next update remains to be seen, but it’s certainly on my radar now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Barbie Review

Greta Gerwig’s Barbie is never dull and it is a triumph of Dream House production design with exquisite casting. Cowriting with her partner Noah Baumbach, the screenplay is home to some great gags and eventually some emotionally inspired sections. It stumbles occasionally in sketchy territory that seems more in place as a mid-level SNL sketch (with some of the show’s vets performing the material). With Margot Robbie as the classic or “stereotypical” Barbie and Ryan Gosling as a version of Ken who believes his profession is “Beach” (where he spends his days), their chemistry clicks as they explore lands ruled by matriarchy and patriarchy.

The comedy around them can sputter in one scene and pop in the next. This is a satire of corporatism and critique of gender identities that wouldn’t exist without that Mattel cooperation. It has its own well-worn cliches present about the Venus and Mars divisions. Venus is Barbieland here while Mars is the world we know. Gerwig and Baumbach are dealing with a tricky balance and the fact that this mostly succeeds is an impressive achievement.

We meet Robbie’s Barbie in Barbieland where every night is Girls Night (!) alongside President Barbie (Issa Rae), Writer Barbie (Alexandra Shipp), and plenty of others professionals. These women rule the joint while Ken and his fellow Kens (they include Simu Liu and Kingsley Ben-Adir) beach during the day and pine for their respective Barbies at night. In one funny revelation, it is said that the women literally have no clue where the Kens stay at night (they do not own dream dwellings).

Our lead Barbie’s blissful existence ends when she starts thinking of death. Soon her perfectly perched feet fall flat and cellulite emerges. These real world problems are due to Earthly interference. She doesn’t want to become like Weird Barbie (Kate McKinnon), whose physical traits resemble a demented child being creative with her doll parts. Barbie must travel to the Real World which she assumes puts females in the same leadership positions as Barbieland. Gosling’s Ken sneaks along for the ride.

Their journey introduces them to single mom Gloria (America Ferrera) and teen daughter (Ariana Greenblatt). Mom works for Mattel, which is entirely run by males including Will Ferrell’s CEO. She has her own ideas for Barbie iterations and that may be causing Robbie’s imperfections. While she deals with the patriarchy ruling the land, Ken revels in it and soon brings that superior attitude back to Barbieland. A buoyant battle for the sexes follows.

Barbie improves as it goes along. It manages to mostly earn the moving moments that populate the final act. I suspect some of the broader material could’ve been cut down. For example, Ferrell and his band of execs don’t really add much. Yet I dug McKinnon as the oddly configured Weird Barbie. This is an experience where we have Gosling stealing scenes with hilarity and Ferrera doing the same with heartier stuff. Robbie is in the middle of it and she is smartly cast (narrator Helen Mirren has a moment of snarky meta fun commenting on her incredible beauty). There’s plenty to ponder in the politics of Barbie, but maybe not thinking about it too hard is the way to go. The same logic can be applied to Ken’s out of place friend Allan (Michael Cera). He doesn’t really belong, but I enjoyed him. Same goes for the movie where our central character is figuring out where she belongs.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Nimona

For this year’s Animated Feature race at the Oscars, it appears there are three spots already spoken for. That would be Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (the frontrunner), Elemental, and The Boy and the Heron. We await Disney’s Wish and it’s a strong possibility it makes the dance unless it majorly underwhelms with critics and crowds.

That could leave just one slot left for the five spot and there’s hopefuls. They include the sequel Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and reboot Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. There’s the Polish historical drama The Peasants.

And we have Nimona from Nick Bruno and Troy Quane. The Netflix comedic adventure premiered on Netflix over the summer to solid reviews (94% on Rotten Tomatoes). Featuring the voices of Chloë Grace Moretz and Riz Ahmed, I’ve had it ranked #5 in a few of my posts (including the most recent update from last weekend). Bruno and Quane are the team behind 2019’s Spies in Disguise. It did not make the quintet in Animated Feature (it probably narrowly missed). Nimona‘s inclusion may come down to whether Netflix throws their campaign attention behind it or Nugget. Don’t be surprised if it’s this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Delinquents

The three-hour heist dramedy The Delinquents from Argentina premiered at Cannes and has been traveling the fest circuit (Toronto, New York) since. From writer/director Rodrigo Moreno, it stars Daniel Elias and Esteban Bigliardi and is out in limited release this week.

Argentina has seen four of their efforts make the International Feature Film five in the 21st century: 2001’s Son of the Bride, 2009’s The Secret in Their Eyes (which won), 2014’s Wild Tales, and last year’s Argentina, 1985 (which may well have been runner-up to All Quiet on the Western Front).

With an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating, don’t be surprised if this makes the shortlist in IFF. I’m more skeptical this becomes the fifth Argentinian entry to make the final cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Pigeon Tunnel

Errol Morris is one of the best known documentarians in the medium whose The Thin Blue Line (1988) is a genre classic. Two decades back, The Fog of War was crowned best doc at the Academy Awards. His latest is The Pigeon Tunnel and it’s out on Apple TV this weekend after playing the festival circuit in Telluride and Toronto.

It chronicles the life of legendary spy and spy novelist John le Carré. His works such as The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, The Constant Gardner, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy were all made into acclaimed pictures.

Reviews are appreciative with a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, at this week’s announcement for the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, it managed only a Best Score nod. If Pigeon can manage to make the shortlist when they’re revealed in December, it obviously has a shot. With a strong slate of docs in contention, that might not happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Dicks: The Musical

Dicks: The Musical was unveiled at midnight screenings during the Toronto Film Festival last month. The outrageous comedy is based on an off-Broadway play with a more risqué title from Josh Sharp and Aaron Jackson. They headline the cast along with Nathan Lane, Megan Mullally, Bowen Yang, and Megan Thee Stallion. Larry Charles, collaborator with Sacha Baron Cohen on Borat and Brüno, directs.

Opening in wider release tomorrow after a limited run on the coasts, it stands at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 74 reviews. This probably won’t even get in the mix for Musical/Comedy races at the Golden Globes. The one Academy prospect worth mentioning are the tunes. There are original tracks separate from the source material and distributor A24 is expected to tout them for contention. One being singled out by critics is “Out Alpha the Alpha” by Ms. Thee Stallion.

Funny R-rated songs rarely make the cut with awards voters. 1999’s “Blame Canada” from South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut is an outlier. I wouldn’t count on the raunchy ditties making enough ballots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Five Nights at Freddy’s Box Office Prediction

Universal and Blumhouse are banking on a big financial delivery for Five Nights at Freddy’s when it debuts October 27th. Based on a massively popular video game series that began in 2014, the PG-13 horror pic comes from director Emma Tammi. The cast includes Josh Hutcherson, Elizabeth Lail, Piper Rubio, Mary Stuart Masterson, and Matthew Lillard.

The fanbase for the games should be hungry to watch this immediately. Rather surprisingly, Freddy’s will also be available same day on Peacock (much like the recent Halloween trilogy from the same studio). That could eat into the theatrical earnings as some viewers may prefer to make it a Halloween weekend couch experience.

I still think taking the over is probably wise and that might mean a start in the mid to high 60s range.

Five Nights at Freddy’s opening weekend prediction: $68.3 million