In 2023, Disney finds itself in the rather rare position of not having a Best Animated Feature frontrunner at the Oscars. The category started in 2001 and 15 of the 22 previous winners have been released by the Mouse House. This summer’s Elemental got decent enough reviews that it probably has a spot in the eventual five nominees.
I’m not sure the same can be said for Wish. The musical from directors Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn and featuring the voices of West Side Story gold statue recipient Ariana DeBose and Chris Pine comes out over the Thanksgiving holiday. With its review embargo lifted, the Tomato meter is at only 62%. That is certainly below most Disney animated offerings and it brings awards viability into question.
In my view, Elemental (a bit fresher at 74%) is behind Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (definitely the favorite) and The Boy and the Heron. I still think it gets in. That leaves two spots. Wish will need to compete with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Nimona, and The Peasants to make the cut. Its legendary studio will need to work their campaigning magic to have two competitors in the race.
Wish may have a slightly better shot at Original Song with DeBose singing “This Wish”. Yet it’s quite possible that Wish could be granted zero nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After two decades plus, Ridley Scott reunites with Gladiator thespian Joaquin Phoenix in Napoleon. It rolls out November 22nd over the long holiday weekend. The historical epic about the legendary French commander costars Vanessa Kirby and Tahar Rahim. The Apple TV production is exclusive to theaters.
Once seen as an Oscar hopeful, the review embargo pretty much shut that down (save for perhaps some tech nods) as it stands at 61% on Rotten Tomatoes. With reactions all over the map (including a few which say it works best as a comedy), Napoleon will attempt to stand apart as an option for adults looking for Thanksgiving entertainment.
That strategy could mean a three-day gross in the high teens to low 20s as it hopes for $30 million or higher from Wednesday to Sunday. I’ll put Napoleon just short of that and certainly stronger than Scott’s 2021 box office bomb The Last Duel.
Napoleon opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Blogger’s Update (11/20): Middling reviews have led to a downgrade in my estimate to low 30s for the three-day and mid 40s for the five.
Disney seeks a return to a Thanksgiving tradition by having an animated offering in the top spot with the release of Wish on November 22nd. Chris Buck (who co-helmed the Frozen features) and Fawn Veerasunthorn direct with a voice cast including Ariana DeBose, Chris Pine, Alan Tudyk, Angelique Cabral, Victor Garber, Harvey Guillén, Evan Peters, Ramy Youssef, and Jon Rudnitsky.
The musical fantasy would love to replicate the performance of the Frozen entries, but would certainly settle for the earnings of pre-COVID Turkey weekend offerings. In 2016, Moana opened to $56 million from Friday to Monday and $82 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday of the holiday frame. Coco in 2017 started off with $50 million over the three-day and $72 million for the five-day. In 2018, Ralph Breaks the Internet took in $56 million from Friday to Monday and $84 million over the extended holiday.
On the other hand, the Mouse House wants to avoid a Good Dinosaur level performance from 2015. It made $39 million for the three-day and $55 million with the extras.
My hunch is that Wish is granted a performance closest to Coco levels while not quite reaching those figures. I’ll project a mid to high 40s output over the regular weekend and mid to high 60s when factoring in those extra days when kiddos are out of school.
Wish opening weekend prediction: $32.2 million (Friday to Monday); $46.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Ridley Scott’s 2000 epic Gladiator was named Best Picture and costar Joaquin Phoenix nabbed his first Oscar nomination for Supporting Actor (he’d eventually get three more mentions and win for Joker). The duo have reunited for Napoleon (out November 22nd). Awards history repeating itself will be a tall order.
The review embargo is lifted with a current Tomatoes meter of 82%. While that’s decent, it’s currently under the 85% of Scott’s 2021 The Last Duel and that failed to attract any attention from the Academy. Scott’s biopic may suffer the same fate. One unexpected development? The number of critics saying it kind of works as a comedy.
Best Actor is probably too crowded for Phoenix to rise and I doubt costar Vanessa Kirby will be a factor in Supporting Actress. Tech nods could come with Production Design being the likeliest opportunity (Sound, Visual Effects, and Costume Design are also feasible). It could also go the way of Duel and come up empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Documentarian Roger Ross Williams is already an Oscar winner for his short film Music by Prudence (for which he became the first African-American filmmaker to receive an Academy Award). His 2016 feature-length doc Life, Animated make the quintet in its longer form category and Williams hopes for a return to show with Stamped from the Beginning.
It’s based on the 2016 book by Ibram X. Kendi (subtitled The Definitive History of Racist Ideas in America). Out on Netflix last Friday, it played the Toronto Film Festival in September to solid notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%. Stamped was up for Best Feature and for Historical Documentary at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards over the weekend and went 0 for 2.
Despite the perfect meter, there are other docs with even stronger reviews. Yet I’ve had Stamped marked for a nomination in my recent predictions. Don’t be surprised if it makes the shortlist and eventual cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On November 29th, Matthew Heineman’s documentary American Symphony plays on Netflix after being on the festival circuit beginning at Telluride. It recounts a year in the life of Grammy winning musician Jon Batiste and family.
Heineman is no stranger to awards hopefuls in the genre. 2015’s Cartel Land made the quintet of nominees. 2021’s The First Wave and last year’s Retrograde were discussed for attention and was up in other precursors though each failed to make the Academy cut.
Symphony is at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and scored six Critics Choice nods at their ceremony over the weekend honoring true life works. It won two with Best Music Documentary and Score (losing the main prize to Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie).
Drawing a correlation between Critics Choice and the Academy is risky. As I’ve discussed numerous times, the doc branch of voters at the big ceremony are unpredictable. Symphony stands an excellent shot at making the eventual quintet, but it’s gotta make the shortlist first and surprises seem to occur there every year when revealed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A quartet of new titles enter the pre-Thanksgiving frame marketplace with prequel The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes expected to lead the way and DreamWorks Animation’s threequel Trolls Band Together in the runner-up spot. We also have Eli Roth’s slasher flick Thanksgiving and Taika Waititi’s sports dramedy Next Goal Wins out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
All four Hunger Games titles (released from 2012-15) debuted to over $100 million, but that streak is sure to end with Songbirds. It may only fly to around $50 million and I’ve got it achieving just a smidge under that.
Barring a significant Hunger underperformance, Trolls should settle for #2 in the mid 20s as it hopes to leg out impressively in future holiday weekends.
The Marvels experienced a historically low start for an MCU offering (more on that below). With a weak B Cinemascore grade, it could be headed for a catastrophic fall in the mid 60s or more in its sophomore frame (similar to The Flash this summer). That’s not the comparison it wanted and it likely means a third place showing.
I’ll say Thanksgiving carves up a little over $10 million and that would put it in fourth. The news is bleaker for the frequently delayed Next Goal Wins as it failed to generate awards buzz on the fest circuit and seems to have little heat attached to it. I’m putting it in sixth behind Five Nights at Freddy’s in weekend #4.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Predicted Gross: $48.3 million
2. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $26.7 million
3. The Marvels
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
4. Thanksgiving
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. Next Goal Wins
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (November 10-12)
It was indeed the worst of times for the Marvel Cinematic Universe as The Marvels had the lowest debut of all 33 franchise entries dating back to the summer of 2008. Captain Marvel and team made off with a mere $46.1 million, right on pace with my $46.3 million (my projection kept dwindling in the week leading up to its premiere). That’s the worst MCU kickoff by a pretty wide margin as the previous record was held by 2008’s The Incredible Hulk at $55 million. A series that once seemed indestructible is no longer as comic book movies have had a tough 2023 in multiplexes. As mentioned, the B Cinemascore indicates crowds aren’t digging the product.
Five Nights at Freddy’s, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $8.9 million (a bit ahead of my $7.4 million take). The three-week tally is up to $127 million.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour was third with $6 million as took a heftier drop (over 50%) that I figured in its fifth weekend. The record setting concert pic total is $172 million.
In a surprising development, Priscilla was fourth in its sophomore go-round. The biopic increased its theater count and fell only 5% to $4.7 million for $12 million overall. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
Killers of the Flower Moon was fifth with $4.5 million in weekend four. My guess? $4.5 million for $59 million in the bank.
The Holdovers expanded to nearly 800 screens and the Oscar hopeful made $3.2 million for sixth (I said $3 million).
Finally, faith-based musical Journey to Bethlehem got off to a rougher journey than I forecasted. It was seventh with $2.4 million and I thought it would double that figure with $4.8 million.
Trolls Band Together from DreamWorks is the third animated feature in the musical franchise out November 17th with Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, and many others on crooning duty.
Thus far the critical response is below its two predecessors. 2016’s Trolls sat at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes while 2020 follow-up Trolls World Tour was a hair under at 71%. At press time, Band Together has managed just 56% on the meter.
The two earlier Trolls entries failed to nab Animated Feature nods at the Oscars and this won’t either. In fact, I’d say it’s easily behind three other sequels in Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget.
Seven years ago, this series earned its only Academy mention for Timberlake’s smash hit “Can’t Stop the Feeling” (it lost to “City of Stars” from La La Land). This second sequel does boast an NSYNC reunion after two decades with the track “Better Place”. Yet it is not dominating the charts like band member JT’s aforementioned ditty managed. Like World Tour, Band doesn’t seem primed for an encore come awards time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On November 17th, the true life sports dramedy Next Goal Wins finally kicks it in theaters after numerous delays. Filmed about four years ago, Taika Waititi directs with Michael Fassbender (currently pulling double duty in David Fincher’s The Killer on Netflix) as a down of his luck soccer coach assigned to American Samoa. Costars include Oscar Kightley, Kaimana, David Fane, Rachel House, Beulah Koale, Will Arnett, and Elisabeth Moss. Arnett’s parts, by the way, were reshot after the studio replaced Armie Hammer with him.
Unlike the filmmaker’s Jojo Rabbit from 2019, Goal did not generate any awards buzz after it hit the festival circuit. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a blah 51% as it arrives during the increasingly crowded November season.
It certainly seems like this will get lost in the shuffle and I’m not even confident this earns $5 million for its start.
Next Goal Wins opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:
Sony is hoping there is leftover goodwill from a mock trailer 16 years ago when Thanksgiving arrives in theaters November 17th. The slasher film is from Eli Roth and back in 2007, he helmed a fake ad for Thanksgiving at the beginning of Grindhouse. As you’ll recall, Roth shot half of that movie via Planet Terror while Quentin Tarantino was responsible for Death Proof.
The feature length scare fest stars Patrick Dempsey, Addison Rae, Milo Manheim, Jalen Thomas Brooks, Rick Hoffman, and Gina Gershon. The Black Friday set tale is out a week before the holiday. It could be a stretch that mass audiences will want gore with their turkey. Another demerit could be the fact that Grindhouse simply isn’t very well-known (it didn’t reach near the box office levels of Tarantino’s normal offerings).
Thanksgiving might be fortunate to serve up double digits and I’ll project it falls just over that mark.
Thanksgiving opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:
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