November closed out at the box office with an unpredictable Thanksgiving frame where I had the entirety of the top four in the wrong spots. The head scratching will continue as December arrives with a quintet of newcomers (four of which could post very similar earnings). We have the concert pic Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé, Japanese monster mash Godzilla Minus One, John Woo’s dialogue free action thriller Silent Night, sci-fi drama The Shift from Angel Studios, and Hindi-language shoot-em-up Animal. My detailed prediction posts on all of them can be accessed here:
Beyoncé’s tour doc might be the only new entry in the top five. While it shouldn’t approach the near $100M out of the gate that Taylor Swift accomplished, a mid to high 20s output would firmly put it in first position.
It is common to see hefty drops after the Turkey Day weekend and that should apply to the leftovers. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (after surprisingly staying at #1 over the holiday) should slide to second with a mid 50s decline.
After that… it’s a crapshoot. Any of the newcomers could post better figures than my calls. However, I have all four making between $5-8 million and each falling outside the top five.
That’s because Napoleon, Wish, and Trolls Band Together may all flirt with $10 million. I’ve got the trio falling under that for a close finish between 3-5.
With all the newbies, I’ll expand to a top ten outlook and here’s how I see it:
1. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
2. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. Wish
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
4. Napoleon
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Trolls World Tour
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
6. Godzilla Minus One
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
7. Silent Night
Predicted Gross: $5 million
8. The Shift
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
9. Animal
Predicted Gross: $4 million
10. Thanksgiving
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (November 24-26)
In one of the most unexpected upsets in recent memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes had a far better than anticipated sophomore hold to rather easily take the holiday weekend. The franchise prequel eased a mere 35% for $29 million from Friday to Sunday, surpassing my $20.3 million projection with flying colors. The ten-day take is now $98 million.
Ridley Scott’s bio-epic Napoleon with Joaquin Phoenix was second as it slightly rose above forecasts. It made $20.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $32.7 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. That’s ahead of my respective $18.2 million and $28.5 million takes. With a weak B- Cinemascore grade, it may fade rather quickly.
After the massive flop that was The Marvels, the news didn’t get better for the Mouse House as the animated Wish was granted a tepid start in third. With ho-hum reviews, the Disney title fell far short of hopes with $19.6 million over the three-day and $31.6 million since Wednesday. I (along with most others) predicted a first place showing and had it at $32.2 million and $46.4 million. Ouch.
Trolls Band Together, in weekend two, was fourth with $17.8 million. I was more generous at $22.6 million and the DreamWorks Animated sequel has made $64 million after ten days.
Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving capitalized on that title with a fifth place slot and $7 million (I said $6.5 million). The ten-day tally is a respectable $24 million, especially since it comes with a low budget.
Hindi language action pic Animal is unleashed in nearly 900 North American venues on December 1st. It will vie for second highest debuting newcomer of the weekend (behind Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé). From director Sandeep Reddy Vanga, the epic length (201 minutes) experience stars Ranbir Kapoor, Amil Kapoor, Bobby Deol, Rashmika Mandanna, and Tripti Dimri.
As mentioned, the battle for the runner-up early December premiere could be a tight one between Godzilla Minus One, Silent Night, The Shift, and this. I have all four falling between $5-8 million.
This one could over perform, but comps are key. 2022’s Brahmastra – Part One: Shiva (another long Hindi language adventure) made $4.5 million out of the gate on slightly less screens. This September’s Jawan took in just over $6 million. Both were roughly a half hour shorter than Animal. I’m thinking a performance more like Shiva is the likely result.
Animal opening weekend prediction: $4 million
For my Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé, click here:
Angel Studios has had a heavenly 2023 with the massive success of Sound of Freedom over the summer and the recent better than anticipated debut of the documentary After Death. They’ll try to replicate the good tidings with The Shift on December 1st. The low-budget sci-fi pic is directed by Brock Heasley with a cast led by Kristoffer Polaha, Neal McDonough, Elizabeth Tabish, Rose Reid, and Sean Astin.
This is not expected to come anywhere the bounty that Freedom brought in. It earned $40 million over an extended Fourth of July frame on its way to a $184 million domestic haul. The Shift, at the high end of its range, could make a fourth or fifth of that for starters. At the low end, it might premiere to a tenth of that figure.
Fair warning: I’ve underestimated both aforementioned Angel titles this year. If it made close to $10 million, I wouldn’t be surprised. $4-5 million is also feasible.
The Shift opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million
For my Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé prediction, click here:
The title character may be 70 years old in cinematic time, but the creature is still wreaking havoc on the general public. The not so jolly green giant returns in Godzilla Minus One, out domestically December 1st. From acclaimed filmmaker Takashi Yamazaki, it arrives in stateside multiplexes a month after it premiered to impressive box office numbers in Japan. Runosuke Kamiki, Minami Hamabe, Yuki Yamada, and Munetaka Aoki star.
The 37th feature in the franchise, it’s getting some of the strongest reviews of the bunch. One was made to earn the bulk of its bucks overseas, but hardcore U.S. fans could get this in mid to high single digits. The best case scenario would probably be a gross approaching $10 million. I’ll say it doesn’t get there though I have it outdoing John Woo’s Silent Night (its direct competition).
Godzilla Minus One opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
For my Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé prediction, click here:
John Woo’s Silent Night hopes to make a little noise for Lionsgate when it opens December 1st. It marks the filmmaker’s first American feature in 20 years (since the 2003 Ben Affleck flop Paycheck). Joel Kinnaman, Scott Mescudi, Harold Torres, and Catalina Sandino Moreno star in the dialogue free action thriller.
We are a quarter century past when Woo was a blockbuster making commodity, including hits like Face/Off and Mission: Impossible 2. With a lack of star power, Silent may play to sparse venues.
I have a tough time envisioning this getting to $10 million and it faces direct competition from Godzilla Minus One. Mid single digits seems likely for a calm and quiet debut.
Silent Night opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
For my Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé prediction, click here:
With a similar distribution deal to what Taylor Swift cut with AMC Theaters last month, Queen Bey brings her world tour to the multiplexes on December 1st with the release of Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé. The documentary concert pic hopes to capture a fraction of what Ms. Swift took in ($175 million thus far domestically).
No matter what happens, the performer will see lots of dough since (like Swift) she’ll receive 50% of the gross. That said, while Beyoncé is obviously a beloved international superstar, Renaissance will be fortunate to bring in a third of what The Eras Tour accomplished for its start. The Swifties propelled Eras to a record breaking $92.8 million premiere.
Anything over $30 million should be considered a tremendous debut. Even a low to mid 20s start could put it in the #1 spot to start off December at the box office (depending on where Wish and other Thanksgiving leftovers are at). I’ll say this falls in that range.
Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million
I didn’t do an Oscar Predictions post on Flamin’ Hot when it premiered at South by Southwest back in March or when it began streaming over the summer on Hulu and Disney+. Eva Longoria’s directorial debut tells the true life tale of a man who claimed he invented the title seasoned Cheetos. Jesse Garcia, Annie Gonzalez, Dennis Haysbert, and Tony Shalhoub star.
Reviews were fairly decent at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, but this didn’t strike me as an awards contender at the time or now. That’s with one exception and this brings us to Diane Warren. The songwriter has contributed many tracks to feature films and she has 14 Academy nominations to speak for it. This dates back nearly 40 years starting with “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, continuing with gigantic hits like “Because You Loved Me” from Up Close and Personal and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon, and including last year’s ceremony with “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman. Despite the impressive number of noms, Warren has yet to win Original Song (though she did pick up an Honorary Oscar for her work earlier this year).
Flamin’ Hot includes the track “The Fire Inside” performed by Becky G and written by the frequent hopeful. It hasn’t been on my radar screen in my previous predictions. Yet now that a planned documentary about Warren seems to be delayed to 2024 (in which I’m sure she’ll have a contending track), one has to consider this song for inclusion. Don’t be surprised if it materializes in my top ten possibilities in my next update. It’s risky to bet against the penner of the tune. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Thanksgiving box office gives us two high-profile releases mixed with the leftovers as Disney’s Wish and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon come out Wednesday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The Mouse House certainly wishes that Wish was getting better reviews and word-of-mouth. That said, the studio should have no trouble nabbing the top spot over the holiday frame. I’ve got the three-day in the low 30s and five-day in the mid 40s.
Napoleon with Joaquin Phoenix as the military leader is also generating so-so buzz. It is a viable option for adults looking a Turkey Day frame trip to the multiplex. A high teens Friday to Sunday might leave it in fourth position with a five-day approaching $30 milion.
After a premiere in the lower end of its anticipated range, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes may ease 50-55% in its sophomore outing. That might mean a drop to third as Trolls Band Together should see a more meager slide (20-25%) in its second weekend and stay in the runner-up spot.
Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving could capitalize on its name and have a smaller than normal decline for its genre. If it eases 40% or so, it should round out the high five as The Marvels might not make the top quintet (more on its poor performance below).
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Wish
Predicted Gross: $32.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.4 million
2. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
3. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Predicted Gross: $2o.3 million
4. Napoleon
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million
5. Thanksgiving
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Results (November 17-19)
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, as expected, ruled the charts like its predecessors. Yet it came in considerably below the four entries it prequels. While parts I-IV from 2012-15 all opened to more than $100 million, Ballad managed $44.6 million (a touch under my $48.3 million projection). It’s not a disaster considering the reported $100 million budget, but it’s definitely not a shining victory.
Trolls Band Together opened in second with a solid $30 million, surpassing my $26.7 million take. The DreamWorks Animated threequel should hold up well during the holiday season.
Thanksgiving cut a $10.3 million gross for third place as the fake trailer turned feature came in just behind my $11.4 million forecast. Not too shabby as the budget is listed at $12.6 million.
The Marvels fell from first to fourth with a disastrous second weekend after a disastrous first. The MCU bomb (first time you’ve ever heard it) plummeted 78% to $10.1 million. I was more kind at $15.6 million. With $64 million in the bank after 10 days, it’s questionable whether Captain Marvel and her friends even reach $100 million domestically.
Five Nights at Freddy’s rounded out the top five with $3.5 million (I said $4.5 million) to brings its four-week total to $132 million.
Finally, Taika Waititi’s oft-delayed sports dramedy Next Goal Wins couldn’t find an audience. It was 8th with $2.5 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a great Thanksgiving!
Previously on the blog, I completed a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2006-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We do know half of the titles that would populate the ten. Those would be the ones that made the quintet 18 years back. During that 78th Oscar ceremony, Jack Nicholson made the surprise announcement that race relations drama Crash from Paul Haggis was the Best Picture winner. Of its seven total nominations, it also won Original Screenplay and Film Editing.
It stands as one of the bigger upsets in the Academy’s history as it took gold over the heavily favored Brokeback Mountain by Ang Lee. He won Director and the cowboy romance also received Adapted Screenplay and Original Score. The other three nominees: Bennett Miller’s Capote (for which Philip Seymour Hoffman took Best Actor), George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.
2005 was the rare year where the Director nominees matched perfectly with BP so we can’t pluck out other movies from that competition. A look at the other categories do give us clues as to the other features that might’ve gotten in.
James Mangold’s Cash couple biopic Walk the Line landed Joaquin Phoenix a Best Actor nod and Reese Witherspoon the Actress statue. With a total of five mentions, a Golden Globe victory in the Musical/Comedy race, and a Critics Choice slot, it’s pretty safe to assume it makes the ten.
Same goes for The Constant Gardner from Fernando Meirelles. Rachel Weisz took Supporting Actress and it received three other noms in addition to Golden Globe and Critics Choice inclusions.
Another Critics Choicer nominee, Rob Marshall’s Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 tech nods and won 3 (Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design). I went back and forth on this one, but ultimately decided it probably makes the dance.
A fourth Critics Choice match goes to Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man. The boxing drama could be left off. It missed some key nods including Russell Crowe’s lead performance (Paul Giamatti was nominated for supporting) and screenplay. I think it might have just snuck in at the bottom of hopefuls.
With one picture left to plug in, there’s plenty of contenders. Hustle & Flow saw a surprise win (for Three 6 Mafia) in Original Song and Terrence Howard made the Actor five. Woody Allen’s Match Point had a sole nom in Original Screenplay, but made the Globes cut in Drama. Joe Wright’s Pride & Prejudice rendering saw Keira Knightley up in Actress in addition to three other mentions.
Ultimately my final choice came to this trio. Peter Jackson’s King Kong went 3 for 4 on its tech inclusions (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects). However, it was generally considered a bit of a disappointment at the box office and with some critics. That said, I almost picked it.
Syriana by Stephen Gaghan gave George Clooney a Supporting Actor Oscar and was up for Original Screenplay. Yet it failed to see a Critics Choice or Globe BP nod. Nevertheless I almost picked it.
I chose to go with David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence. It received two noms for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Original Screenplay and was a critical darling. I went with the Academy honoring a work from the acclaimed director (especially since most of his efforts are far from Oscar friendly).
It has been a lengthy three weeks since my last Oscar predictions and there’s developments to discuss. One of the final major awards puzzle pieces held its first screenings this week in The Color Purple. The musical based on the play that is based on the movie that is based on the novel has drawn encouraging reactions thus far. In fact, they’re positive enough that I’m glad I’ve never dropped it from my ten BP nominees. And I suspect I’ve made the right call in keeping Danielle Brooks placed at #1 in Supporting Actress for quite some time. Same goes for Taraji P. Henson getting recognized in that category. I also think Fantasia Barrino’s lead performance is a decent (if not slam dunk pick) for the crowded Best Actress race and that Colman Domingo could materialize in Supporting Actor. He may miss the cut and get the sole nod in Actor for Rustin (though the double nominee threat is real). Barrino joins my projected quintet in Actress with Greta Lee (Past Lives) falling by the wayside.
A24 has also screened true life wrestling drama The Iron Claw before its December 22nd bow. Word-of-mouth is also strong for this one. Yet I wonder if A24 will go all in on their campaign. If so, a BP nod is not totally out of the question. It’s listed in my top 15, but at the moment I believe it’s on the outside looking in and I have it listed nowhere else as a possibility.
Napoleon falls out of BP contention due to mixed reaction as does Joaquin Phoenix in Best Actor. Ridley Scott’s epic could still show up in some tech races. Another Thanksgiving release lessened its chances this week in Disney’s Wish. The animated musical also is garnering so-so buzz. The fact that it’s a Mouse House production could mean it makes the Animated Feature cut. For now, it moves out of the high five.
While it has been a little while since my previous update, Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor have the same nominees (albeit with some movement in the rankings). In Actor, Colman Domingo as Rustin is back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Sandra Hüller becomes my rare double contender prediction as I now have her in Supporting Actress (taking out Viola Davis in Air).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Saltburn (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Priscilla
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Peasants (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Carmen (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Asteroid City
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (+2)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-4) – **previously listed at #1 as TBD song
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+3)
7. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Steal the Show” from Elemental
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Maestro (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (E)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)
That adds up to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
9 Nominations
Barbie, The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Past Lives
2 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Priscilla, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, The Killer, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Teachers’ Lounge
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