Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M
With Christmas falling on a Monday this year, this is one of the most jam packed Yuletide box office seasons in memory. There’s a whole bunch of cinematic gifts that studios hope open well. On Friday (December 22), Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom looks to top the charts and reverse the misfortunes of the DCU in 2023. Joining Aquaman for the long weekend are Illumination Entertainment’s animated Migration, wrestling biopic The Iron Claw with Zac Efron, Indian Telugu-language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire, Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell’s rom com Anyone but You, and the nationwide expansion of Oscar hopeful Poor Things with Emma Stone. On Christmas Day, they are joined by The Color Purple (adapting the Broadway musical which adapted the 1985 Spielberg pic which adapted the acclaimed novel), Michael Mann’s Ferrari with Adam Driver, and the George Clooney directed Olympic period piece The Boys in the Boat. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all nine (yes, nine) right here:
Even Aquaman himself, Jason Momoa, recently stated in an interview that the future of the franchise is murky at best. Despite the 2018 original making over a billion bucks worldwide, expectations for the sequel are underwater after the DCU’s year that included flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. The worst case scenario is that this opens second to Wonka. On the bright side: Warner Bros gets the #1 slot either way. A low to mid 40s beginning from Friday to Monday is nothing to brag about, but that should get it to first place.
Wonka got off to a pretty sweet start at the top of its anticipated range (more on that below). Since I’m doing predictions from December 22-25, it may only decline from the high 30s to the mid to high 20s with bright weekends ahead (especially over New Year’s).
Therefore Wonka might be the family choice over Christmas and that could put Migration in third with a high teens or low 20s output. For Illumination, the silver lining should be small declines in subsequent frames.
I’m expecting a fourth place finish for The Iron Claw as wrestling fans could turn out to the tune of high single digits.
As for the three features out on Christmas Day, this obviously means I’m only doing a one-day projection. The Color Purple, with its well-known source material, should do best among that trio and I have its single day managing a fifth place showing.
Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire could over perform, but I have it in ninth. The newcomers should dominate the top ten as I have Anyone but You in sixth with the Poor Things expansion in seventh.
I do have holdovers The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Trolls Band Together finishing out the top ten.
That means my single day estimates for Ferrari ($2.1 million) and The Boys in the Boat ($1.1 million) leave them outside the top ten.
Truth be told, this is a highly unpredictable Christmas weekend with lots of moving parts. Here’s my best attempt at that top 10 and keep in mind that this is for Friday-Monday:
1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $42.8 million
2. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $31.4 million
3. Migration
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
4. The Color Purple
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
5. The Iron Claw
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
6. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
7. Poor Things
Predicted Gross: $5 million
8. Salaar: Part One – Ceasefire
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
9. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
10. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (December 15-17)
Warner Bros might face choppy waters ahead with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, but the Wonka opening went swimmingly. Timothee Chalamet’s take on the iconic chocolatier was treated to a $39 million start. That’s slightly ahead of my $36.4 million prediction as the family pic should have a robust road ahead this season.
It was the only newcomer this past weekend (which makes sense considering the onslaught ahead). The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes stayed put in second with $5.8 million, a smidge under my $6.6 million call. The prequel is up to $145 million after five weekends.
The Boy and the Heron, after its better than anticipated bow, dropped from 1st to 3rd with $5.5 million. That’s lower than my $7 million forecast as the ten-day take is $23 million.
Godzilla Minus One was fourth with $5 million (I said $5.7 million) for $34 million after three weeks.
Trolls Band Together rounded out the top five with $3.9 million compared to my $4.6 million projection. The threequel is approaching nine figures after five weeks with $88 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…
After a predictably strong run in limited release, Poor Things hopes for a rich box office when it expands nationwide on December 22nd. From director Yorgos Lanthimos in his follow-up to 2018’s The Favourite, the period piece sci-fi black comedy looks to generate numerous Oscar nominations. Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, Willem Dafoe, Ramy Youssef, Christopher Abbott, Jerrod Carmichael, Margaret Qualley, and Kathryn Hunter star.
This past weekend, it entered the top ten (in tenth) on just 82 screens. Its $1.2 million gross scored an impressive $15k per venue and it’s made just over $2 million in two weeks.
With serious awards buzz, this could manage to post a decent wide premiere. On the other hand, competition is fierce with other adult skewing titles like The Iron Claw, The Color Purple, and Ferrari either opening Friday or Christmas Day (Monday).
I’ve held off on doing a forecast for this because I’ve yet to see a verified screen count. When I do, it could alter my thinking. For now I’m setting a figure of $5 million from Friday to Monday, but don’t be surprised if that changes.
Poor Things opening weekend prediction: $5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
Among a crush of new product coming our way this long Christmas weekend, the Indian-Telugu language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire hopes to ignite some interest when it opens December 22nd. Clocking in at 175 minutes, Prashanth Neel directs with a cast including Prabhas, Prithviraj Sukumaran, Shruti Hassan, and Jagapathi Babu.
For comps, you don’t have to look back far. September’s Jawan is from a similar genre and is nearly the same length (169 minutes). It opened in early September to $6.1 million on just over 800 screens (the reported number that Ceasefire will see). That was over a traditional three-day weekend, but this arrives on the extended holiday frame with Christmas falling on a Monday.
While this is expected to make the vast bulk of its money overseas, this could have a similar start stateside and perhaps a bit more due to the holiday. Yet the marketplace is so crowded that this may struggle to reach what Jawan did in three days.
Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasfire opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
The Boys in the Boat tells the tale of the American crew team during the 1936 Summer Olympics in Berlin and it wades into theaters on Christmas Day. George Clooney directs the true life sports drama with a cast including Callum Turner, Joel Edgerton, Jack Mulhern, Peter Guinness, Hadley Robinson, and James Wolk.
This is Clooney’s first theatrical directorial effort since the 2017 bomb Suburbicon (streaming pics The Midnight Sky and The Tender Bar followed). Boat does not have critics on its side with a 45% Rotten Tomatoes score.
While this will attempt to get adult moviegoers out during the holiday season, the weak reaction and heavy competition (The Iron Claw, The Color Purple, Ferrari) should sink this. Since its opening on December 25th (a Monday in 2023), my estimate is only for that day. I’m barely giving it nine figures for that premiere date.
The Boys in the Boat opening day prediction: $1.1 million (Monday estimate only)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
My first post Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards nominations Oscar forecast doesn’t see any changes in Best Picture and I find myself stuck in the same conundrum. There are 11 films I believe will get nominated and ten spots. Until the Critics Choice nods, I thought The Color Purple might be dead in the water. However, its CCA inclusion keeps it in the mix after its surprise snub at the Globes. I still have it clinging to a nomination over Anatomy of a Fall.
In Best Actor, I’m putting Colman Domingo (Rustin) back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Yet it’s a coin flip right now and I agree that Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon, currently my 4) could also find himself on the outside looking in.
Julianne Moore is in the Best Supporting Actress quintet for May December. It’s the first time she’s above the line and I’ve taken out Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) to make that room. Also in this race, there’s a new #1 as Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) just keeps collecting critics prize. She tops the list and drops my longtime #1 Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to second.
You can read all the movement below as I now have Oppenheimer, Killers, and Poor Things all receiving a dozen mentions with Barbie close behind at 11!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Iron Claw
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-3)
8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+3)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fair Play
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (-2)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tótem (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Io Capitano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
20 Days in Mariupol
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elemental (PR: 6) (E)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (E)
8. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+3)
8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “A World Of Your Own” from Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ferrari (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire
Killers of the Flower Moon
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
11 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
6 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Holdovers
3 Nominations
May December
2 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, The Mother of All Lies, Nimona, Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, Wonka
Michael Mann’s first feature in nearly a decade zooms into multiplexes on Christmas Day with Ferrari. Adam Driver plays the automative entrepreneur with a supporting cast including Penélope Cruz, Shailene Woodley, Sarah Gadon, Gabriel Leone, Jack O’Connell, and Patrick Dempsey.
The Neon release (with a budget reportedly approaching $100 million) premiered at the Venice Film Festival early in the fall. Buzz was pretty decent (it’s at 75% on RT), but it hasn’t managed to become a serious awards contender. That kind of chatter could help its numbers. Yet it didn’t materialize.
My suspicion is that Ferrari will fail to make a significant dent in the holiday box office. Competition is fierce and this could get lost in the shuffle. Since it is out on Christmas Day (falling on Monday), this estimate is for that date only.
Ferrari opening day prediction: $2.1 million (Christmas Day estimate only)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M
An adaptation of the Broadway musical that was adapted from the 1985 Steven Spielberg film that was adapted from the Alice Walker novel, The Color Purple is out in theaters Christmas Day. The awards hopeful’s cast includes Fantasia Barrino (reprising her role from the play), Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Blitz Bazawule directs with Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who first rose to fame in the ’85 version) producing.
The source material is obviously well-known as this hopes to attract moviegoers on the big holiday. Christmas is on a Monday in 2023 so this projection is only for that day. Obviously that limits the estimate, but that’s not the only limiting factor. Purple has not generated the Oscar buzz that it’s probably hoped for (though Brooks is a threat to win Supporting Actress). Its inclusion in Best Picture is very much in question (it missed a Golden Globe nod earlier this week).
This should still succeed in bringing an African-American and female audience. I’m anticipating its initial day could see a gross in the higher single digits as it hopes to perform well throughout the end of the year and January.
The Color Purple opening day prediction: $12.9 million (Monday estimate only)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
George Clooney’s sophomore directorial effort Good Night, and Good Luck garnered six Oscar nominations 18 years ago including Best Picture. It’s been slim pickings awards wise for the six features that he’s followed up with. 2011’s The Ides of March nabbed an Adapted Screenplay nod while 2020’s The Midnight Sky competed for Visual Effects.
The filmmaker’s latest is the true life Olympic sports drama The Boys in the Boat and it debuts Christmas Day. The cast includes Callum Turner, Joel Edgerton, Jack Mulhern, Peter Guinness, Hadley Robinson, and James Wolk.
With its review embargo lapsed, the RT score is a discouraging 47%. The Amazon MGM production did surprisingly manage to make the reported final 20 contenders in Visual Effects. When the shortlist of ten comes out later this week, I would be surprised if it advances to the next cut. I also don’t see much hope for the score from Alexandre Desplat, despite his previous eleven nominations and two victories.
The Boys in the Boat would need lots of good luck to be a factor in any race. Don’t count on it happening. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sony is banking on rom com fans making a holiday trek to Anyone but You when it debuts December 22nd. A modern take on Shakespeare’s Much Ado About Nothing, Will Gluck directs Sydney Sweeney (of Euphoria fame) and Glen Powell (of Top Gun: Maverick fame). Costars include Alexandra Shipp, GaTa, Hadley Robinson, Michelle Hurd, Dermot Mulroney, Rachel Griffiths, and Bryan Brown.
The studio has been heavily promoting their product, but Sweeney and Powell (despite their previous high profile projects) aren’t exactly known to open a picture. Barring an unexpectedly heavy female turnout, this should struggle out of the gate. From its Friday start through Monday (Christmas Day), the best case scenario is probably $10 million. Mid single digits seems more likely.
Anyone but You opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire is out in limited release today before its Thursday bow on Netflix. Zack Snyder directs the space epic with a cast including Sofia Boutella, Charlie Hunnam, Michiel Huisman, Djimon Hounsou, Doona Bae, Ray Fisher, Cleopatra Coleman, Jena Malone, Fra Fee, Ed Skrein, and Anthony Hopkins.
With part two hitting theaters and the streamer in April of 2024, there is more than one writer saying this is Snyder’s attempt at making Star Wars. However, most reviews claim he doesn’t succeed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is only 26%.
One area getting some critical praise are the production values, specifically the visual effects. Rebel is reportedly on the shortlist on 20 possibilities for VE at the Oscars. In my last round of predictions, I had it in the final quintet in fifth. Yet the poor reaction thus far makes me question whether it makes it all the way. I’m more skeptical now than I was yesterday though VE is one race where solid reviews isn’t necessarily a prerequisite. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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