2023 closes out with no newcomers, but a host of Christmas holdovers as Wonka looks to bounce back into the top spot with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom sliding to at least second.
I’m making these top five predictions for the traditional three-day weekend and not counting New Year’s Day (which typically sees brisk business at multiplexes). We are still awaiting final numbers for the long Christmas weekend. That includes from Warner Bros who have Wonka, Aquaman, and The Color Purple atop the charts.
The Boys in the Boat (which opened on Christmas to significantly better numbers than I figured) should round out the top five. While Aquaman should come in second, I suspect Migration could rise to the runner-up spot as families catch up on product over another holiday weekend.
My look at trends and performers who had an impactful cinematic 2023 arrives at Bradley Cooper. If you missed my previous three write-ups, you can access them here:
Five years after his directorial debut A Star Is Born landed multiple Oscar nominations, Cooper’s sophomore behind the camera project premiered on Netflix this month. Starring as legendary composer Leonard Bernstein, the multi-hyphenate also produces and co-wrote the script. He even took years to learn how to conduct an orchestra. The reward could be Cooper winning a Best Actor Academy Award after four previous performing nods. It’s fair to say there is no hangover for his second at bat.
Cooper’s voiceover work as Rocket in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is also noteworthy. His character was the emotional center of the MCU blockbuster (a success in a year where comic book movies struggled).
Add in a humorous cameo from Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and 2023 was when Cooper’s conduct was well-regarded by critics and crowds alike. My Year Of posts will continue…
My first two Year Of posts for the cinematic gifts we’ll remember in 2023 didn’t cover individuals. They focused on the phenomenon known as Barbenheimer and the impressive past few months for video game adaptations. You can peruse both of those entries here:
Now we arrive at one performer whose year shone brightest beyond the silver screen. Yes, we’re talking Taylor, Swifties! Whether it was on her money minting tour or upping NFL viewership due to her romance with Travis Kelce, it was all about Taylor in 2023.
That popularity extended to the multiplex. On October 13th, her concert pic Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour broke every record in the genre. Actually it did so before it release by racking up ginormous pre-sales. When it debuted, the result was a $250 million worldwide gross with nearly $180 million of that stateside. Critics turned into Swifties as well (99% on Rotten Tomatoes).
This reversed perhaps the only blip on Swift’s career trajectory. Her movie past was littered with disappointments like 2019’s Cats and 2022’s Amsterdam. With Eras, she now stands tall as the Queen of the Concert Movie… and pretty much everything else in 2023. My Year Of posts will continue…
The trash heap of movie history is littered with a significant share of video game adaptations. It’s a genre devoid of well-regarded titles as evidenced by Double Dragon, Street Fighter, Wing Commander, Doom, and Max Payne, to name a few. That list also includes 1993’s Super Mario Bros., which tanked at the box office and drew the ire of critics.
30 years later, the tide seems to have shifted and that’s why the Video Game Movie is my second entry for trends and performers that popped in 2023. If you missed my first post on the phenomenon that was Barbenheimer, you can find it here:
Mario and Luigi returned to multiplexes this year. This time around, it was in the form of Illumination animating the Nintendo legends. The results? The second biggest worldwide hit of the year behind Barbie ($1.3 billion across the globe and $574 million stateside). That easily makes it the largest grossing video game adaptation of all time and opens the door for projects to follow. You can count on sequels and spin-offs to this and The Legend of Zelda is already in development.
The successes didn’t stop with the heroic plumbers. Five Nights at Freddy’s, based on the game series with demonic bears in a Chuck E. Cheese type setting, wasn’t a hit with reviewers. It did bring out its fan base and then some to the tune of $137 million domestically with another $156 million elsewhere. Like Mario, a follow-up is in the pipeline.
HBO’s The Last of Us was one of TV’s significant successes of ’23 and the post-apocalyptic PlayStation adaptation has the Globe and Emmy nods (and a greenlit second season) to show for it.
Not every version of a cartridge title was a smash. Gran Turismo only managed to rev up $44 million in North America. However, Mario, Freddy’s, and The Last of Us made 2023 the most notable frame for VG product yet in the box office game. My Year Of posts will continue…
As I do at the tail end of each year, I’m gifting you some posts recounting what enthralled us on the big screen in the preceding 12 months. There will be five for 2023 and, for the first write-up, I didn’t have to think too hard. This year, audiences across the globe were transfixed by the phenomenon known as “Barbenheimer”.
That would be the combination of Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. Both pictures opened on July 21st stateside. The former – Gerwig’s modern take on the Mattel doll and her cinematic universe – drew critical praise and became the biggest hit of the year with $1.4 billion worldwide. The latter – Nolan’s biopic of the man who built the atom bomb – made $954 million worldwide (good for third overall) and proved that three-hour historical biopics can make unforeseen amounts of dough.
Barbie and Oppenheimer will forever be tied together despite their many differences. The similarities? Crowds were excited to see both. Both are primed to vie for Best Picture at the Oscars. Each could see a trifecta of their actors contend for acting prizes. For Barbie – Margot Robbie in Actress, Ryan Gosling in Supporting Actor, and America Ferrera in Supporting Actress. For Oppenheimer – Cillian Murphy in Actor, Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor, and Emily Blunt in Supporting Actress. And in a welcome development, the summer’s two behemoths weren’t sequels.
With the possible exception of Top Gun: Maverick in 2022, Barbenheimer is likely the most notable box office story of the decade and certainly for 2023. My Year Of posts will continue tomorrow!
It’s been a rough cinematic 2023 for DC Studios with flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. Over this Christmas weekend, early numbers indicate that their latest Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may be another entry that opens below expectations. Jason Wan returns to direct his sequel to the 2018 blockbuster with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Costars include Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Randall Park, Dolph Lundgren, Temuera Morrison, Martin Short (!), and Nicole Kidman.
The review embargo lifted on Thursday – the day of its unveiling in multiplexes. That’s usually not a good sign and that proved true with an underwater Rotten Tomatoes rating of 36%. Its predecessor managed 65%.
The 2018 original came up empty-handed in the awards space and didn’t make the 10 picture shortlist for Visual Effects. This sequel popped up on the first 20 contenders for VE. However, when the whittled down list of 10 were revealed Thursday, Lost was nowhere to be found. The fourth DCU offering of the year will share the same number of Academy nods as the first three: none. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Oscar shortlists for the 96th Academy Awards were revealed today for seven feature length categories. We now know the ten finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects and the 15 hopefuls for Original Score, Original Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature.
Per usual, there were surprises (though I’d say no complete jaw droppers). In Song, three films make up a third of the contenders (Hi Barbie!). Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and Napoleon did about the best they could do while others like Nyad, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and Past Lives missed key races where they were expected to contend for nominations.
Overall I went 63 for 90 in my forecasts. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my new top tens for where I believe things stand in the various competitions!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Shortlist: Beau is Afraid, Ferrari, Golda, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
How I Did: 6/10
Perhaps the biggest unexpected snub was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 missing here (its two predecessors were respectively nominated and shortlisted). I also had Barbie (Bye Barbie!), Nyad, and Priscilla in the mix. In their places are Beau Is Afraid, Ferrari, The Last Voyage of the Demeter (didn’t see that coming), and Society of the Snow. This is probably Maestro‘s race to lose.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. Maestro (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Golda (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Nyad
The Color Purple
Wonka
Best Sound
Shortlist: Barbie, The Creator, Ferrari, The Killer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 8/10
Oppenheimer is clearly the leader. I felt like if Zone made the cut, its chances to make the final quintet are solid. The Creator and Mission: Impossible are listed over my picks of The Color Purple and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ferrari (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Killer (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Society of the Snow
Best Visual Effects
Shortlist: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 8/10
Mission and Napoleon get in over my picks of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and Killers of the Flower Moon. This race is, frankly, a crapshoot ever since we found out Oppenheimer wouldn’t contend. With the Guardians omission in Makeup & Hairstyling, I feel compelled to remove it from 1st place here (though it still be the MCU’s first winner). The Creator? Godzilla? Perhaps. For now I’m rolling with Poor Things atop the leaderboard, but this is a toughie.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS:
1. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+2)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Best Original Score
Shortlist: American Fiction, American Symphony, Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, Elemental, The Holdovers, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 10/15
Some rather unexpected snubs including Nyad and Past Lives. I also had Carmen, Ferrari, and The Killer up for contention. In their places are American Fiction, American Symphony, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, and Saltburn. Like in Sound, the chances of Oppenheimer being victorious are decent.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Elemental (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (E)
10. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Past Lives
Best Original Song
Shortlist: “Am I Dreaming” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse; “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes; “Dance the Night” from Barbie; “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City; “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “High Life” from Flora and Son; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple; “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son; “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives; “Road to Freedom” from Rustin; “Superpower” from The Color Purple; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
How I Did: 10/15
Those three movies making up a third of the hopefuls are Barbie, Flora and Son, and The Color Purple. I incorrectly had both Flora tunes and “Superpower” from Purple out. Same goes for “Am I Dreaming” and “Can’t Catch Me Now”. The quintet that I incorrectly had in were “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (surprised it missed after the Globes nom), “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me (Bye Bruce Springsteen), “For the First Time” from The Little Mermaid, and “This Wish” from Wish (which I had in my top five days ago). It’s key to remember that only two tracks from a picture can make this race. That’s why I have “Dance the Night” outside the top ten since I’m confident “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken” are in.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Droppe Out:
“This Wish” from Wish
“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
“It’s Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady
“A World of Your Own” from Wonka
Best International Feature Film
Shortlist: Amerikatsi (Armenia), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Four Daughters (Tunisia), Godland (Iceland), Io Capitano (Italy), The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan), The Mother of All Lies (Morocco), Perfect Days (Japan), The Promised Land (Denmark), Society of the Snow (Spain), The Taste of Things (France), The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), Tótem (Mexico), 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine), The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
How I Did: 12/15
Documentaries The Mother of All Lies and Four Daughters are in as well as Amerikatsi. I had About Dry Grasses, The Peasants, and The Settlers. By the way, the miss for The Peasants may not bode well for its Animated Feature chances (where I’ve had it getting nominated). Barring an upset, this is The Zone of Interest‘s category to lose (though an upset isn’t totally out of the question).
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Perfect Days (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tótem (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Godland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
About Dry Grasses
The Promised Land
Best Documentary Feature
Shortlist: American Symphony, Apolonia, Apolonia, Beyond Utopia, Bobi Wire: The People’s President, Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
How I Did: 9/15
There’s always unforeseen developments in the Doc derby. My picks of The Deepest Breath, Kokomo City, The Mission, The Mother of All Lies (despite the IFF nod), Orlando, My Political Biography, and The Pigeon Tunnel fell in favor of Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, and To Kill a Tiger. I’d say Beyond Utopia is still the slight favorite, but I’m very curious to see what certain precursors do.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)
3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)
5. American Symphony (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Still Small Voice (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mother of All Lies
The Deepest Breath
Every Body
Keep an eye on the blog for all speculation as we inch closer to Oscar nomination morning!
Seven pieces of the Oscar speculation puzzle become clearer tomorrow when shortlists are submitted in various feature length races. We will learn the final 15 contenders in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, and Original Song. Additionally, the 10 finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects will be revealed.
With history as our guide, I can reveal there will likely be surprises. There’s usually an out of nowhere song or doc or Makeup & Hairstyling hopeful that emerges.
I’ll have a post up tomorrow with my quick take on my picks and analysis. Here is my forecast for those seven shortlists with an alternate selection in each!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Shortlist (10):
Barbie
Golda
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Nyad
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Priscilla
Alternate: The Color Purple
Best Sound
Predicted Shortlist (10):
Barbie
The Color Purple
Ferrari
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Shortlist (10):
The Creator
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Barbie
Best Original Score
Predicted Shortlist (15):
Barbie
The Boy and the Heron
Carmen
Elemental
Ferrari
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Nyad
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Origin
Best Original Song
Predicted Shortlist (15):
“Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me
“Camp Isn’t Home” from Theater Camp
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
“Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“For the First Time” from The Little Mermaid
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple
“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
“Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“This Wish” from Wish
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
Migration is the latest animated offering from Illumination and it arrives in theaters this Friday. The comedic adventure is directed by Benjamin Renner with a voice cast including Kumail Nanjiani, Elizabeth Banks, Awkwafina, Keegan-Michael Key, David Mitchell, Carol Kane, and Danny DeVito.
With its review embargo lifted, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is a fair though far from overwhelming 71%. This is Illumination’s 14th big screen effort that began with Despicable Me back in 2010. While the studio’s product usually succeeds in being a box office winner, only Despicable Me 2 in 2013 managed a Best Animated Feature Oscar at the Oscars.
Don’t look for Migration to be the second. Precursors like Critics Choice and the Globes have already ignored it. Illumination does have another 2023 contender in the financial behemoth The Super Mario Bros. Movie. The chances are stronger (if still unlikely) that it makes the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Color Purple has existed for over four decades via book (by Alice Walker), film (Steven Spielberg’s 1985 adaptation), and Broadway play (beginning in 2005). At each turn, it’s generated awards attention. The book won a Pulitzer. The first cinematic rendering landed 11 Academy nominations (though it didn’t win any of them). The first iteration of the play also managed 11 Tony nods and a single victory in lead actress while the 2015 revival nabbed four nominations and two trophies (including Cynthia Erivo in lead actress).
On Christmas Day, the screen treatment of the stage musical arrives in theaters. Blitz Bazawule directs with a cast including Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who played Sofia in the ’85 adaptation) are producers.
Given the awards heavy past of the source material, Purple has been seen as a potentially significant Oscar hopeful since the project was announced. The review embargo has lapsed (rather late I must say) with a solid 85% Rotten Tomatoes score.
That said, much of the critical reaction is of the *** variety and not ****. Perhaps the biggest snub of the Golden Globe nominations was this not receiving a mention in Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy). Days later, the Critics Choice nods threw Purple a lifeline when it made their Top 10 features.
Any way you cut it, Purple‘s inclusion in the Oscar BP ten is far from certain. I had it listed at #10 in my latest round of predictions on Sunday. If this manages to make the SAG quintet when their nominations are announced for Best Ensemble, that would be another feather in its cap. Though don’t be surprised at all if it misses the BP cut. Bazawule’s direction is highly unlikely to be mentioned (even Spielberg couldn’t get in that race nearly 40 years back). Same goes for the Adapted Screenplay.
Purple will manage to get other nominations. The most certain is Danielle Brooks for Supporting Actress. For months, I had her listed in 1st to win but I recently switched the top spot to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Brooks is playing the same role Winfrey played and got an Academy nod for. In 1985, Whoopi Goldberg was nominated for Actress as Celie. Fantasia Barrino hopes to replicate that success. It’s doable, but competition is fierce. I had her in 7th place on the outside looking in last weekend. 7th place is also where I had Taraji P. Henson in Supporting Actress as Shug. Margaret Avery was nominated for her portrayal in ’85 though Henson has already missed key precursors like the Globes and Critics Choice.
Finally, there are down the line races where it could pop up. This includes Original Song (“Keep It Movin”), Production Design, and Costume Design. It won’t generate 11 mentions like the Spielberg pic. Four or five is more feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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