Critics are leaving their negative marks on Zack Snyder’s Rebel Moon – Part Two: The Scargiver. Out on Netflix today, the sci-fi epic follows up Part One: A Child of Fire. It debuted on the streamer right before Christmas last year. The sequel features returning cast members Sofia Boutella, Djimon Hounsou, Ed Skrein, Michel Huisman, Doona Bae, Ray Fisher, Staz Nair, Fra Fee, Cary Elwes, and Anthony Hopkins.
Reviews for Part One were pretty brutal at 22% on Rotten Tomatoes. Scargiver‘s score is even worse at 16%. Nevertheless Child of Fire did make the shortlist of ten for Visual Effects at the Academy Awards. When final nominations came out, it missed the cut of five.
I’m skeptical that Part Two will even make the shortlist at year’s end. There will a Part Two among the VE contenders. It’ll be of the Dune variety and probably not the Moon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and Director and they can be perused here:
We now move to the big prize. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded half of the eventual nominees: the winner Oppenheimer in addition to Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Barbie and The Holdovers. I did not identify American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, or The Zone of Interest at that early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.
It is a safe assumption that the year’s biggest grosser thus far – Dune: Part Two – has punched its ticket to contention. Everything else, frankly, is guesswork right now. With Cannes coming up, some questions will be answered soon. Followers of the blog, however, know this is a months long process in the BP puzzle. It starts today.
Here’s the first snapshot…
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
Bird
Blitz
Conclave
Dídi
Dune: Part Two
The End
The Fire Inside
Kinds of Kindness
Queer
Sing Sing
Other Possibilities:
The Apprentice
Civil War
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Gladiator 2
Hard Truths
Horizon: Am America Saga – Chapter 2
Joker: Folie à Deux
Megalopolis
The Nickel Boys
Nightbitch
The Piano Lesson
A Real Pain
Wicked
I’ll have my first rankings in the six major categories up in short order!
Luca Guadagnino’s sports love triangle Challengers hopes to serve up winning box office numbers when it opens April 26th. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist headline the critically hailed pic that was originally slated for last fall until the actors strike pushed it to spring.
Zendaya is hot off Dune: Part Two and buzz for this follow-up is impressive. The RT score is a sizzling 96%. It will need to make its money off star power as romantic dramas can be a tough sell.
I suspect the worst case scenario is a debut in the low double digits while the rosiest result could be a premiere in the low 20s. My forecast puts it in the mid to high teens.
Challengers opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million
The latest spy action comedy from Guy Ritchie is WWII era set The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare. Out Friday, it finds the filmmaker in familiar genre territory with a cast including Henry Cavill, Eiza González, Alan Ritchson, Henry Golding, Alex Pettyfer, Hero Fiennes Tiffin, Babs Olusanmokun, and Cary Elwes.
Ritchie has been pumping out feature after feature in recent years. His war pic The Covenant drew mostly solid reviews, but zero awards attention in 2023. Warfare is generating some decent notices at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes. That includes some comparisons to Inglourious Basterds though they’re not near as effusive in praise.
This is the director’s 15th picture and only 2009’s Sherlock Holmes received any Oscar noms for Original Score and Art Direction. That stat should remain the same as Warfare isn’t expected to contend anywhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Three fresh titles attempt to prevent Civil War from a second weekend atop the charts after a strong premiere. We have vampire flick Abigail, Guy Ritchie’s spy action comedy The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, and the anime spy action comedy Spy x Family Code: White rolling out. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be found here:
It could be a genuine photo finish for the top spot. I spy Civil War dropping in the mid 50s as a hefty fall seems likely given the weaker B- Cinemascore grade. That could allow any of the newbies to compete for #1. I’m giving it to Abigail for what would be a so-so start.
Spy x Family Code: White could threaten in the low double digits, but I have it just under $10 million for a third place showing.
As for Warfare, I’m expecting Ritchie’s latest to be a flop despite pretty decent reviews. I have it rounding out the top five behind the fourth frame of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.
Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:
1. Abigail
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
2. Civil War
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
3. Spy x Family Code: White
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (April 12-14)
Alex Garland’s buzzy Civil War opened near the higher end of its anticipated range with $25.7 million, besting my $18 million forecast. That’s a record for A24 whose previous largest beginning was held by 2018’s Hereditary in the low teens.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire slipped to second after two weeks in 1st with $15.5 million, on target with my $15.9 million take. The monster mash has amassed $158 million thus far.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $5.7 million (I was right there at $5.6 million) for $96 million in its four weeks of release.
Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth as it added $5.5 million to its now $173 million haul. I projected $5.1 million.
Dune: Part Two rounded out the top five with $4.3 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The seven week tally is $272 million.
Finally, Monkey Man fell a steep 60% in its sophomore frame to $4 million (I went with $4.9 million) for $17 million overall.
We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and they can be perused here:
We now move to Director. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer as well as Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Yorgos Lanthimos of Poor Things. I did not identify Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) or Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.
In 2021, one of the biggest shockers of nomination morning was Denis Villeneuve being left out of Best Director for Dune. I don’t have history repeating itself as the filmmaker makes my initial quintet for the sequel. So does Edward Berger, who was surprisingly snubbed in 2022 for All Quiet on the Western Front.
Here’s the first snapshot…
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
When it focuses on snapping the perfect photo, Alex Garland’s Civil War crackles and pops with a tension rivaling the best scary movies. Indeed there is horror to be found in this tale of journalists covering a nation torn apart. It is set in the near future and viewers will bring their own instincts to suss out the political landscape. Garland’s screenplay doesn’t provide the roadmap as a third-term President (Nick Offerman) and his dwindling protective units are being closed in on by separatist groups.
Lee Smith (Kirsten Dunst) is a veteran shutterbug who’s seen it all. Almost. Along with colleague Joel (Wagner Moura), they plan a trek to D.C. to witness and document the pending downfall of POTUS. An interview before his demise is the wished for cherry on top. Two others hitch a ride with the Reuters duo – seasoned New York Times reporter Sammy (Stephen McKinley Henderson) and newbie cameraperson Jessie (Cailee Spaeny, fresh off her starring role as Priscilla in that biopic).
The trip to the capital is a bumpy and episodic one, filled with sudden bursts of carnage and odd and often distracting musical needle drops. Lee’s view of documenting the violence is passive in nature. She refuses (at least outwardly) to let emotion overwhelm her. Just the snaps, ma’am. Jessie has to learn that trait. Dunst and Spaeny are precise and effective in portraying the two sides of the equation.
Another noteworthy performance belongs to Dunst’s husband Jesse Plemons in a one segment role as a militia man deciding whether or not to let the road warriors continue their trip. It is the most suspenseful sequence in a picture with a few of them.
As mentioned, the details of the governmental breakdown are kept to a minimum and we are left to interpret plenty. There is one episode that frightens in a different way. The group passes through a town where the citizens are willfully uninformed of the chaos surrounding them. What doesn’t kill them makes them stronger in their estimation and it’s an eerie divergence on that particular exit.
When the action gets to D.C. in the third act, some energy is lost. The coup is exceedingly well-directed by the maker of Ex Machina and Annihilation (a shoutout especially to the sound designers on Garland’s crew). It just seems like we’ve seen the White House go down in plenty of lesser flicks. Civil War shines brightest when it dwells on the power of the photog in their darkest moments.
After playing the festival circuit beginning in Cannes nearly a year ago and releasing overseas in autumn 2023, Alice Rohrwacher’s 1980s set romantic dramady La chimera is at last out in limited fashion domestically. Josh O’Connor (soon to be seen in the buzzy Challengers), Carol Duarte, Vincenzo Nemolato, Alba Rohrwacher (younger sibling of the director), and Isabella Rossellini star.
While chimera received a fine response in France and beyond (the RT score is 91%), the Italians chose Io capitano as their submission for International Feature Film at last year’s Oscars. Their choice paid off as it was one of the five nominated pics. Perhaps chimera would’ve made the cut though we’ll never know. Despite its Neon stateside distribution in 2024, this was eligible for the 96th Academy Awards so contention is moot for the 97th. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare isn’t the only spy action comedy out next weekend. Crunchyroll has the Japanese animated variety of the genre hitting screens with Spy x Family Code: White from director Takashi Katagirl.
An expansion of the anime TV show, Spy came out in Japan around Christmastime and it has earned over $40 million overseas. I haven’t seen a theater count yet, but recent Crunchyroll distributions roll out to around 1700-1900 venues.
There’s a consistency in their premieres. 2022’s One Piece Film: Red took in $9.3 million while last year’s Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village came hit $10.1 million. In February, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training debuted to $11.5 million.
Based on that, high single digits or low double digits certainly seems like the way to go. My forecast actually puts it above the Ungentlemanly gang.
Spy x Family Code: White opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Nicolas Cage’s movie this month is the post-apocalyptic horror tale Arcadian from director Ben Brewer. Out this weekend, it costars Jaeden Martell of It fame and Maxwell Jenkins as Cage’s twin sons. It was first screened at South by Southwest to mostly complimentary notices. The RT score is 85%.
The trio must battle dangerous creatures when the sun sets. Some reviews say the monstrous visual effects are its strongest feature. Yet I question whether Arcadian will still be in the minds of voters for that category many months down the road. And there will likely be potential heavy hitters in VE coming our way this summer and beyond. That’s in addition to Dune: Part Two which is already the frontrunner. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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