Category: SAG Awards

30th Annual SAG Awards: Nominations Reaction

A major Oscar precursor day kicked off with the Screen Actors Guild nods for the 30th ceremony coming next month. Per usual, the acting branch struck us with some highly expected nominations and a smattering of unexpected inclusions and snubs.

I went for 22 for 30 in my picks. Let’s break down the six races one by one with how I did and some initial analysis, shall we?

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

How I Did: 3/5

A nice morning for American Fiction overall with its 3 nominations and The Color Purple got some sorely needed recognition here. They get in over my calls of Poor Things (which I’m surprised didn’t make it) and Saltburn (which was a bit of a surprise selection on my part).

While Purple‘s inclusion is helpful, there’s usually at least one SAG Ensemble contender that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Barbie, Killers, and Oppenheimer all appear to be shoo-in nominees and Fiction is looking safer by the day…

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in Leading Role

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The actors branch often go with known names over relatively unknown ones and that’s why I had Bening over Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) or Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla). This is where Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) could’ve moved up as far as viability, but it didn’t materialize. This should be a showdown between Gladstone and Stone.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 4/5

Domingo making the quintet is not a shocker by any stretch. Yet I am a bit taken aback that SAG didn’t nominate Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon (so much for them always going with the big names). This might be where Cooper needs to show he’s a threat to win. Otherwise it’s Murphy or Giamatti unless Wright can score an upset.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 4/5

Cruz is in over my Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) pick. The other four seemed likely contenders and the five spot was wide open. Others who could’ve helped themselves today include Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret), Julianne Moore (May December), and America Ferrera (Barbie). Randolph is considered the frontrunner to potentially sweep the season. I will note that SAG seems to adore Blunt (she scored an upset victory here in 2018 for A Quiet Place).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

How I Did: 3/5

This could turn out to the most fascinating acting derby of the season. It certainly was this morning. Brown and De Niro are named over Charles Melton (May December) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). Seeing Dafoe be the sole Things nominee instead of Ruffalo is unexpected. So is Melton missing and we now have to consider whether he’s strong or not for the Oscar quintet. Basically we have seven legit contenders vying for five slots. As far as a winner with SAG, Gosling will try to show he’s a competitor to the slightly favored Downey Jr.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

How I Did: 3/5

This sequel heavy lineup sees Barbie (?) and Guardians in over The Creator and Ferrari. I’ll make a bold prediction that a sequel wins… and it’s probably Wick or Mission.

You can expect my final SAG winner predictions shortly before its February 24th airdate!

30th Annual SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

After their long strike that dominated entertainment news headlines in 2023, the 30th Screen Actors Guild Awards stream via Netflix (slightly ironic) on February 24th. Nominations in the six cinematic races are revealed this Wednesday, January 10th.

Readers of the blog are aware that I spend thousands of words and dozens of posts speculating on the Oscars. For the SAG Awards, it’s just this write-up. I’ll go through the sextet with brief commentary, my quintet of selections, and an alternate pick.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Predicted Nominees:

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

Alternate:

American Fiction

In recent years, there are sometimes 3 of 5 SAG Ensemble nominees that make the dance at the Oscars. More often it is 4 out of 5 and that’s where I see Barbie, Killers, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things (all highly likely BP contenders) making the cut. I’m leaning toward Saltburn over Air, The Color Purple (which has been fading and could use a boost with this), The Holdovers, and my alternate American Fiction in the five spot.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Predicted Nominees:

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate:

Greta Lee, Past Lives

The SAG voters often go with more recognizable faces than the Academy does. That’s why you see Bening and Robbie over Greta Lee or Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Predicted Nominees:

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alternate:

Colman Domingo, Rustin

I wanted to go with Domingo or even Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) or Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), but I ultimately couldn’t take out any of the five thespians that I currently have as the Academy’s nominees. If anyone is vulnerable, it’s probably Wright or DiCaprio.

Outstanding Performance in a Supporting Role by a Female Actor

Predicted Nominees:

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate:

Julianne Moore, May December

This race could be quite interesting. In addition to the six performers above, I was tempted to select Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Viola Davis (Air), or Penelope Cruz (Ferrari). Ultimately my somewhat surprise pick is Pike, even though she also nabbed a Globe mention. I also have a weird suspicion that Brooks might be snubbed, but I’m keeping her in.

Outstanding Performance in a Supporting Role by a Male Actor

Predicted Nominees:

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Alternate:

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

I’m selecting Dafoe over De Niro in a close call and don’t discount Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction). Anyone beyond those seven actors would be an unexpected party crasher.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Predicted Nominees:

The Creator

Ferrari

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

John Wick: Chapter 4

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Alternate:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Feels weird not to have a comic book movie predicted, but it was a pretty weak for that genre. Somehow Mr. Wick’s headshots have never been recognized in this race and perhaps that changes here.

That means I’m projecting the following numbers in nominations for these pictures:

4 Nominations

Oppenheimer, Poor Things

3 Nominations

Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon

2 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro, Nyad, Saltburn

1 Nomination

American Fiction, The Color Purple, The Creator, Ferrari, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, May December, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

SAG Awards and PGA Winner Reactions

A weekend of awards precursors was a blessing for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It stormed tonight’s SAG Awards and won the top prize at PGA the evening before. Make no mistake – Everything is now an even stronger frontrunner to take BP at the Oscars.

At PGA, Everything emerged as predicted. Some prognosticators went with Top Gun: Maverick as an upset pick. It wasn’t to be. The Producers Guild also went with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio in the animated field. This is just as all other major precursors have done. It appears on a glide path for the Academy statue.

My PGA miss was in Documentary Feature as they chose Navalny over Fire of Love. Given that it’s won BAFTA and PGA, Navalny is the favorite. I don’t think it’s automatic (like I do with Pinocchio in Animated), but the odds are certainly in its favor.

Now… let’s get into SAG. Wow. I went 3 for 6. I correctly selected Everything for Best Ensemble. I nailed Stunt Ensemble for Top Gun: Maverick. And Ke Huy Quan made it a near sweep (though BAFTA went with Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin) with tonight’s Supporting Actor win. His acting race is the easiest to project for the Oscars.

The other three? They got more interesting. And I missed them all tonight!

By far, the biggest surprise is Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything) being named Supporting Actress over Critics Choice and Golden Globe winner Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), who I predicted and BAFTA winner Kerry Condon (Banshees), who was my runner-up. That potentially makes it a three-person derby at the Oscars. It is worth noting that 9 of the past 10 Supporting Actress SAG victors became the Oscar recipient. So… discount Curtis at your own peril.

In the lead acting races, my runner-ups crossed the SAG finish line. It was Michelle Yeoh (Everything) in Actress over Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) instead of Austin Butler (Elvis), who did get some airtime graciously escorting various winners up the steps. Best Actor and Actress at the Oscars are now legit two-person competitions and I’ll be mulling them over before making final predictions. They’re coming March 8th ahead of the March 12th ceremony!

Bottom line: Everywhere did everything it needed to this weekend and then some while three acting races added real intrigue. Stay tuned!

34th PGA Awards Winner Predictions

Ahead of Sunday evening’s Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, it’s the producers turn on Saturday night. The 34th PGA Awards winner for their best in show has matched the Oscar Picture victor 70% of the time in the previous decade. The times they diverged were 2015 with PGA naming The Big Short instead of Spotlight, 2016 with La La Land over Moonlight, and 2019 when 1917 took the producer prize as opposed to Parasite. PGA also has animated and documentary competitions. I’m walking through them one by one with a winner and runner-up projection.

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees:

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

There’s a 7 for 10 correlation with the PGA contenders and the BP hopefuls from the Academy. The former has Black Panther, Glass Onion, and The Whale up while the Oscars went with All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking. The PGA is known for favoring blockbusters over some smaller pics from time to time. Previous examples that didn’t make the Academy’s cut include Bridesmaids, Skyfall, Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, and Crazy Rich Asians.

This helps explain why some prognosticators are favoring Maverick to take PGA’s highest award. Another explanation is that pundits are attempting to make the race more exciting than it actually is. I do believe Everything Everywhere All at Once is still most likely to emerge. Maverick does warrant runner-up status.

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees:

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix rendering of the classic tale has cleaned up with precursors and there’s no reason to believe it won’t with PGA.

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Runner-Up: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees:

All That Breathes

Descendant

Fire of Love

Navalny

Nothing Compares

Retrograde

The Territory

I wrongly picked Fire of Love to win the BAFTA instead of Navalny. Have I learned my lesson? Nope! I’m doubling down and saying a Fire PGA victory will make the Oscar quintet more competitive.

Predicted Winner: Fire of Love

Runner-Up: Navalny

I’ll have a recap up Saturday evening or Sunday ahead of the SAG show. If you missed my SAG predictions, they can be accessed here:

29th SAG Awards Winner Predictions

29th SAG Awards Winner Predictions

The 29th Screen Actors Guild Awards air this Sunday evening and they are often a reliable preview of what direction the Academy will go. In their races for Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actor – there has been an 8/10 correlation over the past decade for SAG/Oscar matches. With Supporting Actress – it is 9/10.

Let’s walk through each of the six categories with my predicted winner and a runner-up, shall we?

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees:

Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Women Talking

Since the SAGs began in 1995, only one winner (1996’s The Birdcage) wasn’t at least nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. That rules out Babylon. I think (like some earlier precursors) this comes down to Everything v Banshees. I’m majorly tempted to say Banshees as the voters could see it as a way to honor the four thespians nominated in the individual races below. However, I’m giving a very slight edge to SAG doing the same for Michelle Yeoh, Jamie Lee Curtis, and others for Everything.

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

SAG could bestow Yeoh with the trophy, but Blanchett’s work may simply be undeniable at this juncture. If Banshees ends up taking Ensemble, I do think it increases Yeoh’s chances here.

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár

Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Bill Nighy (Living), Adam Sandler (Hustle)

I feel like Farrell really needed that BAFTA last weekend and he didn’t emerge victorious. So it’s a two-person race between Butler and Fraser. And I’m struggling with this one. I could easily envision fellow actors crowning Fraser’s dramatic comeback that includes a Critics Choice award. Yet Butler has seen an impressive run that includes the Golden Globe and BAFTA. This is a coin flip, but I’ll say Butler has a little more momentum.

Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis

Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

A quintet that matches the Oscar five, Condon disrupted the possibility of Bassett sweeping when she took the BAFTA. They’re the two likeliest winners. I will say Curtis scoring an upset is feasible. I think the smart money is on Bassett with Condon as the runner-up.

Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Runner-Up: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

BAFTA again had a trick up their sleeve when Keoghan surprised over Quan. I think SAG will follow the lead of the Globes and Critics Choice and bring the latter back to the stage.

Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Outstanding by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees:

Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King

The only pic that I don’t think has a shot is Avatar because the original in 2009 didn’t even land a nom. 2018’s Black Panther won so Wakanda is certainly viable. Those pilots from Maverick did same amazing stuff though. They’re my pick.

Predicted Winner: Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with my thoughts on what happened compared to my predictions.

29th SAG Awards Nominations Reaction

The morning after The Banshees of Inisherin beat Everything Everywhere All at Once for Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) at the Golden Globes, the two BP Oscar hopefuls tied for most nominations from the Screen Actors Guild voters. The Globes Drama winner The Fabelmans, meanwhile, had a more disappointing showing including one particular unexpected omission.

We are in the thick of awards season and I’m pretty pleased to report I went 25/30 on my SAG picks! Let’s walk through the six competitions with how I did and some general analysis. Final predictions for this ceremony will come closer to the February 26th airdate.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Women Talking

How I Did: 4/5

I went with The Woman King over the sprawling cast of Babylon. I’ll admit I was feeling a bit bold picking Women Talking after a subpar season, but it managed to make the cut while none of its performers garnered individual noms.

It doesn’t turn out this way in most years at SAG, but this prize may well come down to the three movies mostly likely to take the Oscar BP: Banshees, EEAAO, and Fabelmans.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 4/5

There are two headlines here in my opinion. The first is that Michelle Williams did not get in for The Fabelmans. Most prognosticators, including this one, have her sitting in 3rd for the Academy rankings.

Another is that Ana de Armas has made it for the Globes and SAG. A few weeks ago, her work as Marilyn Monroe in Blonde had fallen out of my top 10 possibilities. Now she is a serious threat for the Oscar quintet. I had Williams over de Armas projected.

As for the winner – this should come down to Blanchett v. Yeoh (both freshly minted Globe recipients).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Bill Nighy (Living), Adam Sandler (Hustle)

How I Did: 4/5

SAG news other the nominees themselves was made today when it was announced that Netflix will livestream the show starting next year. It was also an unexpectedly solid morning for the streamer. In this race, the surprise inclusion was Adam Sandler for Hustle (which premiered on the subscription service). I had Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) forecasted instead.

It’s worth noting that Cruise has now missed Globe and SAG. For the former, it was easy to explain considering he had a highly publicized break with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. No such explanation is found with SAG. His chances for Oscar are shaky.

The dynamics of this derby are intact. Butler, Farrell, Fraser, and Nighy appear to be safe bets for Academy attention. The fifth spot is wide open and Sandler got some exposure this morning. As for a winner at SAG, it’s a three-person fight between Butler, Farrell, and Fraser.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 4/5

Bassett, Condon, and Curtis are the trio who’ve landed in all major precursors thus far. Jamie Lee’s costar Hsu makes it in over my pick of Jessie Buckley (Women Talking).

The Golden Globes honored Bassett last night and she could absolutely snag this trophy. However, I’m less convinced she sweeps than the chances of a sweep in Supporting Actor (more on that below). Let’s see if Condon or Curtis, especially, make it interesting.

A quick Women Talking comment. Even though Buckley or Claire Foy (who’s received nothing so far) are mostly or totally MIA, I still could see the Academy putting one of them up. We saw that they can throw a curveball in this race (Judi Dench in Belfast last year).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

After viewing Quan’s heartfelt remarks at Globes, it seems like a sweep is in the cards. My one perfect category means Redmayne has landed Globe and SAG love. The Academy could still leave him out and same goes for Dano. We’ll see if alternates like Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), or Globe nominee Brad Pitt (Babylon) can sneak in.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King

How I Did: 4/5

Avatar got in over my call of Everything Everywhere All at Once (YOU try being a stuntman waving those hot dog fingers!). The original Black Panther won in 2018 so perhaps the sequel will follow suit. Another sequel (Maverick) may prevent that.

That works out to the following number of SAG mentions for these pics:

5 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Fabelmans, The Whale, The Woman King

1 Nomination

Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Batman, Blonde, Elvis, The Good Nurse, Hustle, Living, Tár, Till, Top Gun: Maverick

29th Screen Actors Guild Awards Nomination Predictions

Another significant piece of the Oscar prognosticating puzzle is put together on Wednesday when nominations for the 29th Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards are dropped. The ceremony’s main prize, it’s important to note, is not Best Picture but Best Ensemble. That means a correlation from the Oscar BP and the top race here is not apples to apples. It is worth noting that half of the last 10 SAG Ensemble victors (Argo, Birdman, Spotlight, Parasite, CODA) did go on to win BP from the Academy. On the other hand, three recent BPs (The Shape of Water, Green Book, Nomadland) didn’t make the SAG quintet at all.

Let’s go through all six categories one by one with my picks and a runner-up call, shall we?

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

There are plenty of possibilities including box office hits like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick. For Panther, the original won Ensemble in 2018 so the sequel materializing is feasible. I wouldn’t discount the sprawling cast of Babylon though middling reviews could hurt it. It’s tempting to pick Glass Onion but I’m hesitant since Knives Out was snubbed in 2019.

Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans seem safe. Despite the small call sheet for The Banshees of Inisherin (with just four significant roles), I could see the SAG branch honoring it. I’m also liking The Woman King‘s chances. Women Talking is perhaps the biggest question mark. It has underperformed with precursors. A couple of months ago, I’d have considered it a potential frontrunner to win. Now I wonder if it makes it at all. Nevertheless – here’s my take:

Predicted Nominees:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

The Woman King

Women Talking

Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

In the previous decade, SAG in Actress has matched the Academy 4/5 on six occasions and 3/5 on four. There are no perfect correlations. SAG has shown they will throw in a shocker – Jennifer Aniston in Cake, Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back or Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train are recent examples. If there’s one here, look out for Naomi Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody).

Margot Robbie (Babylon) is currently the one I’ve got in the Academy five (for the moment) that I don’t have here. Ana de Armas (Blonde) is a real threat. If she makes this quintet, look for her Oscar stock to soar. With those possibilities mentioned, my choices are…

Predicted Nominees:

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Ana de Armas, Blonde

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) should all be safe. Bill Nighy (Living) is fourth though I suspect there’s a better chance at SAG leaving him off than the Academy. Then there’s that five spot. It could be Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Hugh Jackman (The Son), or Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Take your pick. I’m leaning toward the star of the year’s biggest hit. On a side note, there’s been a SAG/Oscar match of 5/5 for the previous two cycles.

Predicted Nominees:

Austin Butler, Elvis

Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Bill Nighy, Living

Runner-Up: Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year was an anomaly when just 2 of the SAG nominees (Ariana DeBose for West Side Story and The Power of the Dog‘s Kirsten Dunst) scored Oscar nods. The magic number is usually 3 or 4. The wide open nature of this race has been discussed a lot on the blog. Beyond my picks and runner-up, don’t discount Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), and Carey Mulligan (She Said).

Predicted Nominees:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Like Supporting Actress last year, there was only a 2 for 5 match with Troy Kotsur in CODA and Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog. Usually it’s 4. For 2022, I believe only Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are safe assumptions. The remaining three slots should be some combo of Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Tom Hanks (Elvis), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Brad Pitt (Babylon), and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) sorting it out.

Predicted Nominees:

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Runner-Up: Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble

Don’t discount The Batman or Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, but my quintet is as follows…

Predicted Nominees:

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Runner-Up: RRR

That equates to these movies generating these numbers:

5 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3 Nominations

The Fabelmans, The Woman King

2 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale, Women Talking

1 Nomination

The Batman, Elvis, The Good Nurse, Living, Tár, Till

On Wednesday evening you can expect a recap of what happens after noms are revealed!

2021 SAG Awards Reaction: CODA Moment

The eyes of Oscar prognosticators were focused on this evening’s SAG Awards and it provided some further suspense as we figure out who will be taking the Academy’s gold.

Let’s get the particulars out of the way as I went 3 for 5 (just like last year). One burning question was whether Best Actress would continue to be a free for all of unpredictability. And it did as Jessica Chastain took SAG for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. She was runner-up over my pick of Globe winner Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos). This puts Chastain in a better position to take the Oscar, but the race is far from decided.

As for Actor and Supporting Actress – SAG followed the Globes lead with Will Smith (King Richard) and Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) respectively. It solidifies their status as Academy frontrunners and matches my projections. I wouldn’t bet against either come Oscar time, but let’s see if the forthcoming BAFTAs can change the narrative.

I also called Troy Kotsur (CODA) for Supporting Actor yet that Academy competition is hardly over as Globes recipient Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) should make it interesting.

CODA turned out to be the big winner of the night as it also took Best Ensemble. Not bad for a Sundance darling that Apple TV purchased the streaming rights for. It was my runner-up pick to Belfast, which could have used a trophy this evening for momentum.

While CODA‘s impressive showing could lead to dark horse predictions for it to nab Best Picture in a month, I wouldn’t go too far down the rabbit hole as The Power of the Dog still looks to be the odds on favorite.

And there you have it, folks! My Oscar speculation will keep rolling for the next four weeks!

2021 SAG Awards Winner Predictions

The SAG Awards air this Sunday night and I’m here to give you my take. For some context, I went 4/5 in my projections from 2017-2019 and 3/5 last year. The winners here will certainly help themselves if they’re nominated for Oscars (as you’ll see – not all are).

Let’s get to it!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees:

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

House of Gucci

King Richard

Commentary:

I could offer an argument for anything but Gucci (partly because The Birdcage from 1996 is the only winner that wasn’t nominated for BP at the Oscars). The rest of the pics are BP players with the Academy. Belfast is the most likely to win (notice frontrunner The Power of the Dog isn’t here). Even though I’m not projecting its lone nominee (Balfe) to take the SAG and it was a surprise that Ciaran Hinds didn’t make it, I’ll say the cast is ultimately honored as a whole. CODA is right on its heels.

Predicted Winner: Belfast

Runner-Up: CODA

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Commentary: 

Welcome to the confounding world of Best Actress in the 2021 awards season and this is easily the trickiest race to figure out. The Oscar/SAG match is 3/5. Gaga and Hudson didn’t make the Acadeny’s cut in favor of Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer).

Let’s start with Gaga. The SAG winner in this race has never not been nominated for an Oscar so the superstar would certainly make history if she takes this. That stat discourages me from calling her name, but who knows? All hopefuls here would be first-time winners in this category (Hudson took Supporting Actress 15 years back in Dreamgirls). She seems least likely to win. So we’re down to Chastain, Colman, and Kidman. All could prevail. Kidman took the Golden Globe and a podium trip could solidify her status as the Oscar frontrunner. Chastain’s showy role could be honored and it’s a bit of a coin flip for me. I’ll give Kidman an ever so slight edge.

Predicted Winner: Nicole Kidman

Runner-Up: Jessica Chastain

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Commentary:

Not complicated like Actress as there’s a 5 for 5 lineup with the Academy’s nominees. Unlike the Oscars, I do buy into the theory that Garfield might be more of a spoiler than Cumberbatch to Smith. The SAG folks could reward Garfield’s showy role. That said, I’m not betting against Smith.

Predicted Winner: Will Smith

Runner-Up: Andrew Garfield

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Ruth Negga, Passing

Commentary: 

There’s only a 2 for 5 symmetry with the big show and that’s DeBose and Dunst. Balfe, Blanchett, and Negga are in over Academy picks Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Judi Dench (Belfast), and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard). I do think it’s between the Oscar contestants. Dunst is a threat though I’m going with DeBose sweeping until I see different.

Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose

Runner-Up: Kirsten Dunst

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Commentary:

Like Supporting Actress, just a 2 for 5 (Kotsur, Smit-McPhee) match. Affleck, Cooper, and Leto got SAG love instead of Oscar selections Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), and J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos). And I’ll also say it’s between the two Academy players. This is difficult because I could easily see Smit-McPhee sweeping (he won the Globe). Yet I have a sneaking suspicion the thespians may go for Kotsur. With little confidence, I’ll pick that.

Predicted Winner: Troy Kotsur

Runner-Up: Kodi Smit-McPhee

I’ll have reaction up on the ceremony Sunday night!

2021 SAG Awards Nominations Reaction

Hand it to the SAG Awards voting branch for providing more surprises than the Hollywood Foreign Press Association did with the Golden Globes! For their ceremony airing in February, nominations were announced this morning and there were shocking omissions and unexpected inclusions. I went 20 for 30 overall with my picks.

This is not the headline I was expecting to write, but I’d say House of Gucci was the big winner of the day. It showed up in every feasible category where it could while other heavyweight pics (Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story) saw snubs.

Let’s break it down race by race with how I did and what it means for the Oscar landscape (and there are implications, folks).

A * indicates that I correctly forecasted the nominee.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees:

Belfast *

CODA *

Don’t Look Up *

House of Gucci

King Richard

How I Did: 3/5

Commentary – Of the three films most likely to take Best Picture from the Academy, only Belfast showed up here. That means my predictions of The Power of the Dog and West Side Story didn’t make the cut. My second alternate pick King Richard is not unexpected, but SAG clearly has a thing for Gucci and that proved itself today. There was some chatter that West Side sending out late screeners for voters could be a hindrance and its sole nod this morning could lend some credence to that. As for Power, that’s more of a head scratcher as it landed three individual acting mentions (I don’t think this hurts its BP chances at Oscar). I’m nowhere near finalizing winner forecasts, but you’d have to think Belfast is a possibility (though its omissions which I’ll discuss in a minute make me question that)…

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye *

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter *

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci *

Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos *

How I Did: 4/5

Commentary – OK 4 for 5 is fine and all, but there is a major surprise with this lineup and that’s Kristen Stewart not making the list for Spencer. No one saw this coming. I’ve had Stewart listed in my #1 slot at the Oscars for months. So how many times has the Academy victor for lead actress not been nominated for SAG in the 27 years of its existence? Once and that’s with a huge caveat. In 2008, Kate Winslet took Oscar gold for The Reader. That year, SAG mentioned her for Revolutionary Road instead and the studio for The Reader submitted her in supporting at SAG.

Obviously this calls into question whether Stewart has any chance now of winning the Academy Award and it’s a safe bet that she’ll drop from her #1 perch in my rankings when I update them tomorrow. Hudson’s inclusion here is a little surprising, but this is more about who didn’t make it. Kidman took the Golden Globe. If she takes SAG, look out.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog *

Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! *

Will Smith, King Richard *

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth *

How I Did: 4/5

Commentary – Being the Ricardos got its two leads in (though not Ensemble or Supporting Actor for J.K. Simmons). That’s my miss in this derby as I had Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) in. As far as Oscar is concerned – Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington are looking safe (with Smith as the frontrunner). The fifth slot is up for grabs.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast *

Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story *

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog *

Ruth Negga, Passing

How I Did: 3/5

Commentary – Negga factoring in ups her Oscar viability (she got a Globes nod too). Blanchett is a surprise. I had Rita Moreno (West Side Story) in, but her omission is not unexpected. She hasn’t managed a Globe or SAG and I’d say her Academy chances are fading fast. Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) missing here is pretty significant. DeBose probably stands the best chance, but the fact that this is the only nod for West Side makes me believe an upset is totally possible.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Troy Kotsur, CODA *

Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog *

How I Did: 2/5

Commentary – The Supporting Actor race has been unpredictable and did that ever show this morning! Yep, I went 2 for 5. Neither Belfast hopeful (Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds) factored in nor did Mike Faist for West Side Story. I’ll note that Affleck, Kotsur, and Smit-McPhee are the three that managed Globe and SAG attention. While I didn’t have Cooper for SAG, his inclusion here makes me more confident picking him for an Oscar nod (where I’ve had him for weeks). Leto’s chances get a boost after missing the Globes. And at the end of the day – Smit-McPhee could be headed towards a sweep after taking the Globe.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble

Nominees:

Black Widow *

Dune *

The Matrix Resurrections

No Time to Die *

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings *

How I Did: 4/5

Commentary – Pretty simple as Matrix gets in over Spider-Man: No Way Home. This is likely a Dune win or maybe No Time to Die.

And there you have it! I won’t spend too much time expressing my amazement over the Stewart snub (I’m sure you’ll find plenty of that on Twitter). I’ll have my winner picks up on the blog shortly before the SAG Awards air on February 27th and I’ll have updated Oscar estimates up tomorrow!