Category: SAG Awards

32nd SAG Actor Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 32nd Actor Awards (the ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards) were unveiled yesterday. The group’s selections added to an already tricky Oscar season to project (especially with the acting races).

I went 20/30 in my predictions as One Battle After Another and Sinners dominated and actually fared stronger with SAG than I figured. It was also a good day for Frankenstein and a poor one for Sentimental Value, Jay Kelly, and Wicked: For Good.

Let’s walk through each race with the nominees, how I did, and a quick take on where I see the voters going.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Frankenstein‘s impressive run continued with an unanticipated nod here. It won out over my Sentimental Value call. Value was completely blanked. As for a winner, I would currently give OBAA the slight edge over Sinners.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 3/5

It’s Hudson (who I should’ve figured the SAG branch would recognize) and Infiniti making the cut instead of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) and Sentimental‘s Renate Reinsve. Buckley is unquestionably the favorite.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

How I Did: 4/5

A nice showing for Bugonia with Stone and Plemons in the lead derbies. I went with The Secret Agent‘s Wagner Moura over Plemons. A note that SAG essentially ignored 2025 foreign features. Chalamet is out front though this voting body could surprise and go with DiCaprio or Hawke.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 3/5

The big surprise here is A’Zion. Could this give her momentum for Oscar inclusion? At the least, it probably puts her above costar Gwyneth Paltrow as far as contention. A’Zion and Mosaku are in over Emily Blunt (The Smashng Machine) and Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value). The fact that Blunt or lead Dwayne Johnson from Smashing couldn’t make it here might put the final kibosh in their Oscar hopes. I see the SAG win boiling down to Madigan or Taylor.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 3/5

Caton is a genuine shocker. He and Mescal are in the quintet over Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) and Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). This is where I figured Sandler could materialize and his Oscar chances are fading fast. Skarsgård should still be fine for inclusion though this snub obviously makes me question any shot of emerging victorious. The suddenly resurgent Elordi and del Toro have the best hopes of a podium walk.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

Frankenstein and Battle over Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good. Along with Actress, this is the easiest race to pick via Final Reckoning.

That means these films received these numbers in terms of nominations:

7 Nominations

One Battle After Another

5 Nominations

Sinners

3 Nominatons

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme

2 Nominations

Bugonia

1 Nomination

Blue Moon, F1, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Song Sung Blue, Weapons, Wicked: For Good

The Actor Awards air March 1 and I’ll have reaction up after the festivities…

32nd SAG Actor Awards Nominations Predictions

Now called the SAG Actor Awards and not just SAG Awards, the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs March 1 on Netflix. Nominations are out this Wednesday. Acting categories usually match Oscar at a 4/5 clip while top race Best Ensemble is usually heavy on eventual Academy BP contenders. Last year, all five SAG nominees ended up being in the BP Oscar ten. The year prior it was four.

Here are my predictions in the six SAG Actor races with an alternate for each. I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts and how I performed on Wednesday!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – Wicked: For Good

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Alternate – Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Outstanding Performane by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – One Battle After Another

That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these pictures:

5 Nominations

One Battle After Another

4 Nominations

Sentimental Value

3 Nominations

Sinners, Wicked: For Good

2 Nominations

Hamnet, Marty Supreme

1 Nomination

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jay Kelly Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Weapons

31st SAG Awards Reaction

The 31st SAG Awards added to the unpredictability of Oscar night in one week by crowning Conclave as the Best Ensemble recipient. This occurs seven days after it got BAFTA’s largest prize. The correlation between the Academy’s Best Picture and SAG ensemble is 6/10 in the past decade. Conclave still may not be the frontrunner next Sunday but its chances are looking better.

I predicted Wicked would take Ensemble while plenty of others went with Anora. Had the latter emerged victorious, it would’ve solidified frontrunner positioning in BP. Now Oscar night’s biggest race appears to be a three-way contest between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave with genuine suspense as to what will come out on top.

Ensemble was the only category I missed as I went 5/6 in my projections. I’ll gladly take that in this unpredictable season. Both lead acting derbies were coin flips where I managed to make the right call. Demi Moore (The Substance) won and she now has SAG, Critics Choice, and the Globe with Mikey Madison (Anora) claiming BAFTA. I am still deciding who will take the Oscar.

For Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) picked up his first major trophy over Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). I had a hunch this might happen as the SAG voters ignored Brody’s costars Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce and nominated Chalamet’s cast mates Monica Barbaro and Edward Norton. I’m not convinced the Academy will follow suit, but it’s surely more of a two-way race now.

The supporting fields appear set in stone as Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) have now swept the season. Anyone other than them making podium trips next Sunday would be a rather shocking upset at this juncture.

Finally, The Fall Guy nabbed Best Stunt Ensemble as I figured the movie about stunt performers would.

Keep an eye on the blog as I wrap up my Case Of posts with those final predictions (!) coming Wednesday.

31st SAG Awards Winner Predictions

The 31st SAG Awards hosted by Kristen Bell air on Netflix this Sunday and are the last major precursor before the Oscars on March 2nd. The winners here will not influence the Academy since voting closed this week.

That said, the correlation between SAG victors and Oscar winners can be high. In Actress over the past decade, it’s 7 out of 10. For Actor – 8 out of 10. In the supporting fields, we’re looking at a whopping 9/10 for both.

At SAG, the top prize is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. Therefore we have less frequency between those competitions matching. Yet it’s a decent 6 out of 10 including the last 3 with CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer.

Let’s walk through each race and I’ll give you my winner pick and a runner-up. I’ll have a recap posted Sunday evening!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

All 5 nominees here are BP hopefuls at Oscar and that’s the first occurrence of that since 2014. Unknown and the scandal plagued Pérez are long shots. The other three are all stronger possibilities. Conclave is fresh off the BAFTA coronation while Anora recently completed the hat trick of DGA/PGA/Critics Choice. That said, Wicked really over performed with nods in Actress, both supporting fields, and Stunt Ensemble. And (spoiler alert) I’m not predicting it to win any of those. It isn’t rare for the Ensemble recipient to blank everywhere else – Black Panther, Parasite, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 all did so from 2018-2020. I’ll give a slight edge to the musical adaptation.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: Anora

Outstanding Performance by Female Actor in a Leading Role

Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

This really has the feel of a coin flip after Madison is the recently minted BAFTA winner while Moore has the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. I just think this group of actors might be swayed by the comeback narrative. Nevertheless this seems so close.

PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

Many believe this is Chalamet’s best opportunity to interrupt Brody’s potential sweep. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens since Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce from The Brutalist both missed here and are Oscar nominees. The smart money is on Brody but I’m going with the mild upset in this one.

PREDICTED WINNER: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN

Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Don’t discount Grande with Wicked‘s nomination haul. However, Saldaña has swept thus far and seems immune to any controversy with the picture.

PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Norton is maybe the only real threat to Culkin’s seasonal sweep. I don’t believe it’ll be interrupted.

PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked

This could go to Dune: Part Two (though the first one lost to No Time to Die) or even Wicked, but this might be a layup for SAG to honor the movie about stunt ensembles.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE FALL GUY

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

31st SAG Awards Nomination Reactions

Prior to its February 23rd airdate on Netflix with host Kristen Bell, nominations for the 31st SAG Awards were unveiled this morning. The planned in-person event revealing the nominees was scuttled due to the wildfires in southern California and were delivered via press release instead.

Bottom line – I went 22 for 30 in my predictions and there were some genuine shockers (particularly in the supporting contests). Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some commentary.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

Pretty happy about this result! Unlike most SAG years, all five contenders here should make the list of the 10 BP hopefuls at the Oscars. Considering that Wicked led all pictures in terms of nominations, it could be out front though I wouldn’t discount Pérez.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

How I Did: 4/5

Angelina Jolie (Maria) is having a tough season lately and her Oscar chances are in serious jeopardy. She didn’t make the BAFTA long list and fell short to Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) at the Golden Globes in the dramatic lead actress competition. Now she misses the cut with SAG and it’s Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) getting in. Could Moore’s momentum after her Globes victory continue here or will it be Madison emerging victorious?

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Clarence Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

How I Did: 4/5

The core four (Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, Fiennes) are present but it is Daniel Craig getting the nod over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. That fifth slot is up for grabs at Oscar while Brody and Chalamet could compete for the ultimate prize.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 3/5

The supporting races are where SAG really provide some surprises this time around with Barbaro and Curtis. They’re in over my forecasted nominees Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). I would’ve figured Margaret Qualley (The Substance) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) had better shots than Barbaro/Curtis so this is a bit out of left field. Expect this to be between Saldaña and Grande.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 2/5 (oof)

And we’re even more in unanticipated territory with Supporting Actor as Bailey, Borisov, and Strong (who was my alternate) are in with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) out. I genuinely am surprised that SAG left out Pearce and Washington. The former is considered Culkin’s main competitor this season. That may no longer be the case as Culkin could sweep the upcoming ceremonies. Side note – not a great morning for The Brutalist with Brody being the pic’s sole nominee.

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

I went with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga over Wicked. I would think The Fall Guy, which is about stunt performers, could be the selection.

And there you have it, folks! Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar precursor chatter…

31st SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

Nominations for the 31st Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards roll out this Wednesday, January 8th. They are, of course, another key precursor before Oscar noms are unveiled January 17th. However, this branch can often go there own way and that’s especially true for lead Actress and the supporting fields. Let’s take a walk through all six feature film categories with my picks, a runner-up possibility, and some commentary.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

At the last five SAGs, 18 of the 25 nominees matched the Oscar selections. In none of the years did SAG and the Academy match 5 for 5. Therefore, I’m hesitant to project my current Oscar quintet of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), and Demi Moore (The Substance). I would say Gascón, Madison, and Moore feel relatively safe with Erivo and Jolie (especially after missing the BAFTA long list) vulnerable. Who could spoil the party? I wouldn’t discount Kate Winslet (Lee), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), or Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Yet I just can’t decide who to take out the original group so I’m (reluctantly) sticking with it.

Predicted Nominees:

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Angelina Jolie, Maria

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Runner-Up: Kate Winslet, Lee

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

In this contest, SAG and the Academy is more synced up at 22/25 over the past five years and 5 for 5 matches in 2020, 2021, and 2023 and 4 for 5 for 2019 and 2022. That means I’m feeling confident about these four slots that most agree will achieve Oscar status – Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). It’s that fifth one that’s a question mark. I currently have Daniel Craig (Queer) clinging to the Academy spot. However, I could see SAG going for either Hugh Grant (Heretic) or Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). I’ll go with the latter.

Predicted Nominees:

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Runner-Up: Hugh Grant, Heretic

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Like Actress, there’s an 18 for 25 SAG/Oscar matchup over the previous half decade. In 2020, there was only a 2 for 5 match while it was 5/5 in 2022. I feel like only two performers are safe: Ariana Grande in Wicked and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez. Despite the short screen time, Isabella Rossellini in Conclave seems likely. For Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, she needs to show up here and I have her barely making the cut. While I have Felicity Jones currently getting an Oscar nod for The Brutalist, she may be on the outside looking in here. The fifth slot could be Saldaña’s costar Selena Gomez, Margaret Qualley in The Substance, or either Elle Fanning or Monica Barbaro from A Complete Unknown. I’m going to roll the dice with Gomez on this one which would cause Pérez to probably lead all nominated pictures.

Predicted Nominees:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Margaret Qualley, The Substance

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

There’s a 17 for 25 SAG/Oscar match here. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has a reserved spot in the five and I feel like SAG won’t ignore Denzel Washington from Gladiator II. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) is probably close to a shoo-in. For the last two spots, I would think they’d go for Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing unless they figure an Ensemble nomination is recognition enough. For the five spot, I had it between Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Yura Borisov (Anora) with the former having the edge. I’ll be honest. I hate that this is my current Oscar quintet but it is what it is. Keep an eye on surprisers like Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), or Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)

Predicted Nominees:

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Runner-Up: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

As an annual reminder, SAG isn’t honoring “Best Picture”. It’s their favorite ensemble. Normally there’s at least one nominee that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Perhaps Saturday Night is that movie, but I’m skeptical. The top 7 possibilities here – Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked – are all serious BP contenders. The Brutalist (despite being first in my Oscar mix at the moment) could be vulnerable due to its smaller cast. It’s a coin flip as to what else comes out, but I’m going with Sing Sing.

Predicted Nominees:

Anora

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Wicked

Runner-Up: Sing Sing

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Give credit to SAG as they give credit to stunt performers and this sure seems like a competition that’s tailor-made for The Fall Guy in 2024. Other possibilities include Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and maybe even Wicked. I also wouldn’t discount Dev Patel’s Monkey Man. That said, I’m forecasting Deadpool & Wolverine enough though Mr. Pool’s two predecessors didn’t get in here.

Predicted Nominees:

Deadpool & Wolverine

Dune: Part Two

The Fall Guy

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Gladiator II

Runner-Up: Monkey Man

That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

4 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Wicked

2 Nominations

Anora, The Brutalist, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Maria, Monkey Man, The Piano Lesson, A Real Pain, The Substance

I’ll have a recap up with how I did on Wednesday!

30th SAG Awards Reaction

There were no shockers in the film races at the 30th SAG Awards as I went for 4 for 6. And indeed… four of the categories were fairly easy to predict while Actress and Actor were tossups. They went the other way from my forecasts.

Oppenheimer is your Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture as it seems destined for the Academy’s BP prize in a couple of weeks. Simply put, it has swept all the precursors it needs to.

Christopher Nolan’s epic won half the cinematic derbies this evening as Cillian Murphy took lead Actor. I had Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers getting this one. The general feeling (and I believe the correct one) is that if Murphy managed SAG, that makes it difficult to bet against him for Oscar. The race moves from Tossup between Murphy and Giamatti to Likely Murphy. As expected, Robert Downey Jr. continued his dominance in Supporting Actor.

In non-Oppenheimer news, Lily Gladstone was honored as lead Actress in Killers of the Flower Moon over Emma Stone in Poor Things (who I predicted). Had Stone made the podium trip, this Oscar category would be Likely Stone. Now I’d say it’s a tossup as both performers have essentially split the precursors.

Da’Vine Joy Randolph put another notch in the anticipated sweep in Supporting Actress for The Holdovers.

Finally, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning is the first feature in that long running franchise to win Stunt Ensemble. I called that one.

Bottom line: SAG gave a huge boost to Gladstone giving Stone steady competition in two weeks. Meanwhile the Oppenheimer momentum keeps rolling along.

30th SAG Awards Winner Predictions

The 30th SAG Awards air this Saturday and they are rightly viewed as an often reliable barometer for the Oscars, especially in the acting derbies. The biggest prize honors the strongest ensemble and that’s a less reliable match with Best Picture. Over the past 10 ceremonies, the correlation has been 5 out of 10 and that includes the last two shows with CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once.

On the other hand, it was four for four in Actress, Actor, and the supporting competitions last year. That also holds true for 2021.

Sunday’s program could solidify frontrunner statuses for Actress/Actor hopefuls and further potential sweeps for the supporting players. Let’s walk through all 6 categories with a winner and runner-up selection.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

You have to go back to the second SAG Awards and The Birdcage to find a nominee that wasn’t an Oscar BP nominee so you can cross The Color Purple out immediately. My hunch is this comes down to Barbenheimer. We know that Oppenheimer is the overwhelming favorite for the Academy’s BP. However, Barbie could legitimately pick this up. This is a close call and I wouldn’t totally rule out Fiction. Yet the fact is that Oppenheimer might be strong enough to nab this one in addition to all the other precursors.

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

This is where Gladstone could make the Oscar race a nail biter. Stone has taken Critics Choice and BAFTA. If she gets the victory at SAG, she’ll become the easy favorite. Arguably a coin flip, but I’m sensing Stone gets it.

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Read what I said about Female Actor in a Leading Role. In this race, Cillian Murphy is Emma Stone. Paul Giamatti is Lily Gladstone (except Giamatti took Critics Choice). Murphy could achieve frontrunner status or Giamatti could make it a jump ball. I’m projecting the latter.

Predicted Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penélope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Randolph has been the victor everywhere important and I don’t see SAG interrupting her sweep.

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

Read what I said about Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Robert Downey Jr. is Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

The sequel heavy lineup marks the first nomination for a John Wick pic. Some prognosticators are going with it, but I’m forecasting the Mission series (in its third try) pulls through.

Predicted Winner: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

Runner-Up: John Wick: Chapter 4

That means the tally goes like this:

2 Wins

The Holdovers, Oppenheimer

1 Win

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Poor Things

I’ll have a recap up after the show this weekend!

30th Annual SAG Awards: Nominations Reaction

A major Oscar precursor day kicked off with the Screen Actors Guild nods for the 30th ceremony coming next month. Per usual, the acting branch struck us with some highly expected nominations and a smattering of unexpected inclusions and snubs.

I went for 22 for 30 in my picks. Let’s break down the six races one by one with how I did and some initial analysis, shall we?

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

How I Did: 3/5

A nice morning for American Fiction overall with its 3 nominations and The Color Purple got some sorely needed recognition here. They get in over my calls of Poor Things (which I’m surprised didn’t make it) and Saltburn (which was a bit of a surprise selection on my part).

While Purple‘s inclusion is helpful, there’s usually at least one SAG Ensemble contender that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Barbie, Killers, and Oppenheimer all appear to be shoo-in nominees and Fiction is looking safer by the day…

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in Leading Role

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The actors branch often go with known names over relatively unknown ones and that’s why I had Bening over Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) or Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla). This is where Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) could’ve moved up as far as viability, but it didn’t materialize. This should be a showdown between Gladstone and Stone.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 4/5

Domingo making the quintet is not a shocker by any stretch. Yet I am a bit taken aback that SAG didn’t nominate Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon (so much for them always going with the big names). This might be where Cooper needs to show he’s a threat to win. Otherwise it’s Murphy or Giamatti unless Wright can score an upset.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 4/5

Cruz is in over my Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) pick. The other four seemed likely contenders and the five spot was wide open. Others who could’ve helped themselves today include Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret), Julianne Moore (May December), and America Ferrera (Barbie). Randolph is considered the frontrunner to potentially sweep the season. I will note that SAG seems to adore Blunt (she scored an upset victory here in 2018 for A Quiet Place).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

How I Did: 3/5

This could turn out to the most fascinating acting derby of the season. It certainly was this morning. Brown and De Niro are named over Charles Melton (May December) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). Seeing Dafoe be the sole Things nominee instead of Ruffalo is unexpected. So is Melton missing and we now have to consider whether he’s strong or not for the Oscar quintet. Basically we have seven legit contenders vying for five slots. As far as a winner with SAG, Gosling will try to show he’s a competitor to the slightly favored Downey Jr.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

How I Did: 3/5

This sequel heavy lineup sees Barbie (?) and Guardians in over The Creator and Ferrari. I’ll make a bold prediction that a sequel wins… and it’s probably Wick or Mission.

You can expect my final SAG winner predictions shortly before its February 24th airdate!

30th Annual SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

After their long strike that dominated entertainment news headlines in 2023, the 30th Screen Actors Guild Awards stream via Netflix (slightly ironic) on February 24th. Nominations in the six cinematic races are revealed this Wednesday, January 10th.

Readers of the blog are aware that I spend thousands of words and dozens of posts speculating on the Oscars. For the SAG Awards, it’s just this write-up. I’ll go through the sextet with brief commentary, my quintet of selections, and an alternate pick.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Predicted Nominees:

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

Alternate:

American Fiction

In recent years, there are sometimes 3 of 5 SAG Ensemble nominees that make the dance at the Oscars. More often it is 4 out of 5 and that’s where I see Barbie, Killers, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things (all highly likely BP contenders) making the cut. I’m leaning toward Saltburn over Air, The Color Purple (which has been fading and could use a boost with this), The Holdovers, and my alternate American Fiction in the five spot.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Predicted Nominees:

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate:

Greta Lee, Past Lives

The SAG voters often go with more recognizable faces than the Academy does. That’s why you see Bening and Robbie over Greta Lee or Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Predicted Nominees:

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alternate:

Colman Domingo, Rustin

I wanted to go with Domingo or even Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) or Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), but I ultimately couldn’t take out any of the five thespians that I currently have as the Academy’s nominees. If anyone is vulnerable, it’s probably Wright or DiCaprio.

Outstanding Performance in a Supporting Role by a Female Actor

Predicted Nominees:

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate:

Julianne Moore, May December

This race could be quite interesting. In addition to the six performers above, I was tempted to select Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Viola Davis (Air), or Penelope Cruz (Ferrari). Ultimately my somewhat surprise pick is Pike, even though she also nabbed a Globe mention. I also have a weird suspicion that Brooks might be snubbed, but I’m keeping her in.

Outstanding Performance in a Supporting Role by a Male Actor

Predicted Nominees:

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Alternate:

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

I’m selecting Dafoe over De Niro in a close call and don’t discount Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction). Anyone beyond those seven actors would be an unexpected party crasher.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Predicted Nominees:

The Creator

Ferrari

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

John Wick: Chapter 4

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Alternate:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Feels weird not to have a comic book movie predicted, but it was a pretty weak for that genre. Somehow Mr. Wick’s headshots have never been recognized in this race and perhaps that changes here.

That means I’m projecting the following numbers in nominations for these pictures:

4 Nominations

Oppenheimer, Poor Things

3 Nominations

Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon

2 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro, Nyad, Saltburn

1 Nomination

American Fiction, The Color Purple, The Creator, Ferrari, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, May December, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One