The 31st SAG Awards added to the unpredictability of Oscar night in one week by crowning Conclave as the Best Ensemble recipient. This occurs seven days after it got BAFTA’s largest prize. The correlation between the Academy’s Best Picture and SAG ensemble is 6/10 in the past decade. Conclave still may not be the frontrunner next Sunday but its chances are looking better.
I predicted Wicked would take Ensemble while plenty of others went with Anora. Had the latter emerged victorious, it would’ve solidified frontrunner positioning in BP. Now Oscar night’s biggest race appears to be a three-way contest between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave with genuine suspense as to what will come out on top.
Ensemble was the only category I missed as I went 5/6 in my projections. I’ll gladly take that in this unpredictable season. Both lead acting derbies were coin flips where I managed to make the right call. Demi Moore (The Substance) won and she now has SAG, Critics Choice, and the Globe with Mikey Madison (Anora) claiming BAFTA. I am still deciding who will take the Oscar.
For Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) picked up his first major trophy over Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). I had a hunch this might happen as the SAG voters ignored Brody’s costars Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce and nominated Chalamet’s cast mates Monica Barbaro and Edward Norton. I’m not convinced the Academy will follow suit, but it’s surely more of a two-way race now.
The supporting fields appear set in stone as Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) have now swept the season. Anyone other than them making podium trips next Sunday would be a rather shocking upset at this juncture.
Finally, The Fall Guy nabbed Best Stunt Ensemble as I figured the movie about stunt performers would.
Keep an eye on the blog as I wrap up my Case Of posts with those final predictions (!) coming Wednesday.
The 31st SAG Awards hosted by Kristen Bell air on Netflix this Sunday and are the last major precursor before the Oscars on March 2nd. The winners here will not influence the Academy since voting closed this week.
That said, the correlation between SAG victors and Oscar winners can be high. In Actress over the past decade, it’s 7 out of 10. For Actor – 8 out of 10. In the supporting fields, we’re looking at a whopping 9/10 for both.
At SAG, the top prize is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. Therefore we have less frequency between those competitions matching. Yet it’s a decent 6 out of 10 including the last 3 with CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer.
Let’s walk through each race and I’ll give you my winner pick and a runner-up. I’ll have a recap posted Sunday evening!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
All 5 nominees here are BP hopefuls at Oscar and that’s the first occurrence of that since 2014. Unknown and the scandal plagued Pérez are long shots. The other three are all stronger possibilities. Conclave is fresh off the BAFTA coronation while Anora recently completed the hat trick of DGA/PGA/Critics Choice. That said, Wicked really over performed with nods in Actress, both supporting fields, and Stunt Ensemble. And (spoiler alert) I’m not predicting it to win any of those. It isn’t rare for the Ensemble recipient to blank everywhere else – Black Panther, Parasite, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 all did so from 2018-2020. I’ll give a slight edge to the musical adaptation.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: Anora
Outstanding Performance by Female Actor in a Leading Role
Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
This really has the feel of a coin flip after Madison is the recently minted BAFTA winner while Moore has the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. I just think this group of actors might be swayed by the comeback narrative. Nevertheless this seems so close.
PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Many believe this is Chalamet’s best opportunity to interrupt Brody’s potential sweep. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens since Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce from The Brutalist both missed here and are Oscar nominees. The smart money is on Brody but I’m going with the mild upset in this one.
PREDICTED WINNER: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Don’t discount Grande with Wicked‘s nomination haul. However, Saldaña has swept thus far and seems immune to any controversy with the picture.
PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Norton is maybe the only real threat to Culkin’s seasonal sweep. I don’t believe it’ll be interrupted.
PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked
This could go to Dune: Part Two (though the first one lost to No Time to Die) or even Wicked, but this might be a layup for SAG to honor the movie about stunt ensembles.
Prior to its February 23rd airdate on Netflix with host Kristen Bell, nominations for the 31st SAG Awards were unveiled this morning. The planned in-person event revealing the nominees was scuttled due to the wildfires in southern California and were delivered via press release instead.
Bottom line – I went 22 for 30 in my predictions and there were some genuine shockers (particularly in the supporting contests). Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some commentary.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Pretty happy about this result! Unlike most SAG years, all five contenders here should make the list of the 10 BP hopefuls at the Oscars. Considering that Wicked led all pictures in terms of nominations, it could be out front though I wouldn’t discount Pérez.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
How I Did: 4/5
Angelina Jolie (Maria) is having a tough season lately and her Oscar chances are in serious jeopardy. She didn’t make the BAFTA long list and fell short to Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) at the Golden Globes in the dramatic lead actress competition. Now she misses the cut with SAG and it’s Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) getting in. Could Moore’s momentum after her Globes victory continue here or will it be Madison emerging victorious?
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Clarence Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
How I Did: 4/5
The core four (Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, Fiennes) are present but it is Daniel Craig getting the nod over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. That fifth slot is up for grabs at Oscar while Brody and Chalamet could compete for the ultimate prize.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 3/5
The supporting races are where SAG really provide some surprises this time around with Barbaro and Curtis. They’re in over my forecasted nominees Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). I would’ve figured Margaret Qualley (The Substance) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) had better shots than Barbaro/Curtis so this is a bit out of left field. Expect this to be between Saldaña and Grande.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 2/5 (oof)
And we’re even more in unanticipated territory with Supporting Actor as Bailey, Borisov, and Strong (who was my alternate) are in with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) out. I genuinely am surprised that SAG left out Pearce and Washington. The former is considered Culkin’s main competitor this season. That may no longer be the case as Culkin could sweep the upcoming ceremonies. Side note – not a great morning for The Brutalist with Brody being the pic’s sole nominee.
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
I went with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga over Wicked. I would think The Fall Guy, which is about stunt performers, could be the selection.
And there you have it, folks! Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar precursor chatter…
Nominations for the 31st Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards roll out this Wednesday, January 8th. They are, of course, another key precursor before Oscar noms are unveiled January 17th. However, this branch can often go there own way and that’s especially true for lead Actress and the supporting fields. Let’s take a walk through all six feature film categories with my picks, a runner-up possibility, and some commentary.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
At the last five SAGs, 18 of the 25 nominees matched the Oscar selections. In none of the years did SAG and the Academy match 5 for 5. Therefore, I’m hesitant to project my current Oscar quintet of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), and Demi Moore (The Substance). I would say Gascón, Madison, and Moore feel relatively safe with Erivo and Jolie (especially after missing the BAFTA long list) vulnerable. Who could spoil the party? I wouldn’t discount Kate Winslet (Lee), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), or Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Yet I just can’t decide who to take out the original group so I’m (reluctantly) sticking with it.
Predicted Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Runner-Up: Kate Winslet, Lee
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
In this contest, SAG and the Academy is more synced up at 22/25 over the past five years and 5 for 5 matches in 2020, 2021, and 2023 and 4 for 5 for 2019 and 2022. That means I’m feeling confident about these four slots that most agree will achieve Oscar status – Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). It’s that fifth one that’s a question mark. I currently have Daniel Craig (Queer) clinging to the Academy spot. However, I could see SAG going for either Hugh Grant (Heretic) or Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). I’ll go with the latter.
Predicted Nominees:
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Hugh Grant, Heretic
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Like Actress, there’s an 18 for 25 SAG/Oscar matchup over the previous half decade. In 2020, there was only a 2 for 5 match while it was 5/5 in 2022. I feel like only two performers are safe: Ariana Grande in Wicked and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez. Despite the short screen time, Isabella Rossellini in Conclave seems likely. For Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, she needs to show up here and I have her barely making the cut. While I have Felicity Jones currently getting an Oscar nod for The Brutalist, she may be on the outside looking in here. The fifth slot could be Saldaña’s costar Selena Gomez, Margaret Qualley in The Substance, or either Elle Fanning or Monica Barbaro from A Complete Unknown. I’m going to roll the dice with Gomez on this one which would cause Pérez to probably lead all nominated pictures.
Predicted Nominees:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
There’s a 17 for 25 SAG/Oscar match here. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has a reserved spot in the five and I feel like SAG won’t ignore Denzel Washington from Gladiator II. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) is probably close to a shoo-in. For the last two spots, I would think they’d go for Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing unless they figure an Ensemble nomination is recognition enough. For the five spot, I had it between Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Yura Borisov (Anora) with the former having the edge. I’ll be honest. I hate that this is my current Oscar quintet but it is what it is. Keep an eye on surprisers like Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), or Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)
Predicted Nominees:
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Runner-Up: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
As an annual reminder, SAG isn’t honoring “Best Picture”. It’s their favorite ensemble. Normally there’s at least one nominee that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Perhaps Saturday Night is that movie, but I’m skeptical. The top 7 possibilities here – Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked – are all serious BP contenders. The Brutalist (despite being first in my Oscar mix at the moment) could be vulnerable due to its smaller cast. It’s a coin flip as to what else comes out, but I’m going with Sing Sing.
Predicted Nominees:
Anora
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Runner-Up: Sing Sing
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Give credit to SAG as they give credit to stunt performers and this sure seems like a competition that’s tailor-made for The Fall Guy in 2024. Other possibilities include Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and maybe even Wicked. I also wouldn’t discount Dev Patel’s Monkey Man. That said, I’m forecasting Deadpool & Wolverine enough though Mr. Pool’s two predecessors didn’t get in here.
Predicted Nominees:
Deadpool & Wolverine
Dune: Part Two
The Fall Guy
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Gladiator II
Runner-Up: Monkey Man
That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
4 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Wicked
2 Nominations
Anora, The Brutalist, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Maria, Monkey Man, The Piano Lesson, A Real Pain, The Substance
There were no shockers in the film races at the 30th SAG Awards as I went for 4 for 6. And indeed… four of the categories were fairly easy to predict while Actress and Actor were tossups. They went the other way from my forecasts.
Oppenheimer is your Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture as it seems destined for the Academy’s BP prize in a couple of weeks. Simply put, it has swept all the precursors it needs to.
Christopher Nolan’s epic won half the cinematic derbies this evening as Cillian Murphy took lead Actor. I had Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers getting this one. The general feeling (and I believe the correct one) is that if Murphy managed SAG, that makes it difficult to bet against him for Oscar. The race moves from Tossup between Murphy and Giamatti to Likely Murphy. As expected, Robert Downey Jr. continued his dominance in Supporting Actor.
In non-Oppenheimer news, Lily Gladstone was honored as lead Actress in Killers of the Flower Moon over Emma Stone in Poor Things (who I predicted). Had Stone made the podium trip, this Oscar category would be Likely Stone. Now I’d say it’s a tossup as both performers have essentially split the precursors.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph put another notch in the anticipated sweep in Supporting Actress for The Holdovers.
Finally, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning is the first feature in that long running franchise to win Stunt Ensemble. I called that one.
Bottom line: SAG gave a huge boost to Gladstone giving Stone steady competition in two weeks. Meanwhile the Oppenheimer momentum keeps rolling along.
The 30th SAG Awards air this Saturday and they are rightly viewed as an often reliable barometer for the Oscars, especially in the acting derbies. The biggest prize honors the strongest ensemble and that’s a less reliable match with Best Picture. Over the past 10 ceremonies, the correlation has been 5 out of 10 and that includes the last two shows with CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
On the other hand, it was four for four in Actress, Actor, and the supporting competitions last year. That also holds true for 2021.
Sunday’s program could solidify frontrunner statuses for Actress/Actor hopefuls and further potential sweeps for the supporting players. Let’s walk through all 6 categories with a winner and runner-up selection.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
You have to go back to the second SAG Awards and The Birdcage to find a nominee that wasn’t an Oscar BP nominee so you can cross The Color Purple out immediately. My hunch is this comes down to Barbenheimer. We know that Oppenheimer is the overwhelming favorite for the Academy’s BP. However, Barbie could legitimately pick this up. This is a close call and I wouldn’t totally rule out Fiction. Yet the fact is that Oppenheimer might be strong enough to nab this one in addition to all the other precursors.
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
This is where Gladstone could make the Oscar race a nail biter. Stone has taken Critics Choice and BAFTA. If she gets the victory at SAG, she’ll become the easy favorite. Arguably a coin flip, but I’m sensing Stone gets it.
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runner-Up: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Read what I said about Female Actor in a Leading Role. In this race, Cillian Murphy is Emma Stone. Paul Giamatti is Lily Gladstone (except Giamatti took Critics Choice). Murphy could achieve frontrunner status or Giamatti could make it a jump ball. I’m projecting the latter.
Predicted Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penélope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Randolph has been the victor everywhere important and I don’t see SAG interrupting her sweep.
Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Read what I said about Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Robert Downey Jr. is Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
The sequel heavy lineup marks the first nomination for a John Wick pic. Some prognosticators are going with it, but I’m forecasting the Mission series (in its third try) pulls through.
Predicted Winner: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
A major Oscar precursor day kicked off with the Screen Actors Guild nods for the 30th ceremony coming next month. Per usual, the acting branch struck us with some highly expected nominations and a smattering of unexpected inclusions and snubs.
I went for 22 for 30 in my picks. Let’s break down the six races one by one with how I did and some initial analysis, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
How I Did: 3/5
A nice morning for American Fiction overall with its 3 nominations and The Color Purple got some sorely needed recognition here. They get in over my calls of Poor Things (which I’m surprised didn’t make it) and Saltburn (which was a bit of a surprise selection on my part).
While Purple‘s inclusion is helpful, there’s usually at least one SAG Ensemble contender that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Barbie, Killers, and Oppenheimer all appear to be shoo-in nominees and Fiction is looking safer by the day…
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in Leading Role
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The actors branch often go with known names over relatively unknown ones and that’s why I had Bening over Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) or Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla). This is where Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) could’ve moved up as far as viability, but it didn’t materialize. This should be a showdown between Gladstone and Stone.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
How I Did: 4/5
Domingo making the quintet is not a shocker by any stretch. Yet I am a bit taken aback that SAG didn’t nominate Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon (so much for them always going with the big names). This might be where Cooper needs to show he’s a threat to win. Otherwise it’s Murphy or Giamatti unless Wright can score an upset.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 4/5
Cruz is in over my Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) pick. The other four seemed likely contenders and the five spot was wide open. Others who could’ve helped themselves today include Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret), Julianne Moore (May December), and America Ferrera (Barbie). Randolph is considered the frontrunner to potentially sweep the season. I will note that SAG seems to adore Blunt (she scored an upset victory here in 2018 for A Quiet Place).
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
How I Did: 3/5
This could turn out to the most fascinating acting derby of the season. It certainly was this morning. Brown and De Niro are named over Charles Melton (May December) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). Seeing Dafoe be the sole Things nominee instead of Ruffalo is unexpected. So is Melton missing and we now have to consider whether he’s strong or not for the Oscar quintet. Basically we have seven legit contenders vying for five slots. As far as a winner with SAG, Gosling will try to show he’s a competitor to the slightly favored Downey Jr.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
How I Did: 3/5
This sequel heavy lineup sees Barbie (?) and Guardians in over The Creator and Ferrari. I’ll make a bold prediction that a sequel wins… and it’s probably Wick or Mission.
You can expect my final SAG winner predictions shortly before its February 24th airdate!
After their long strike that dominated entertainment news headlines in 2023, the 30th Screen Actors Guild Awards stream via Netflix (slightly ironic) on February 24th. Nominations in the six cinematic races are revealed this Wednesday, January 10th.
Readers of the blog are aware that I spend thousands of words and dozens of posts speculating on the Oscars. For the SAG Awards, it’s just this write-up. I’ll go through the sextet with brief commentary, my quintet of selections, and an alternate pick.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Alternate:
American Fiction
In recent years, there are sometimes 3 of 5 SAG Ensemble nominees that make the dance at the Oscars. More often it is 4 out of 5 and that’s where I see Barbie, Killers, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things (all highly likely BP contenders) making the cut. I’m leaning toward Saltburn over Air, The Color Purple (which has been fading and could use a boost with this), The Holdovers, and my alternate American Fiction in the five spot.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate:
Greta Lee, Past Lives
The SAG voters often go with more recognizable faces than the Academy does. That’s why you see Bening and Robbie over Greta Lee or Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall).
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alternate:
Colman Domingo, Rustin
I wanted to go with Domingo or even Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) or Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), but I ultimately couldn’t take out any of the five thespians that I currently have as the Academy’s nominees. If anyone is vulnerable, it’s probably Wright or DiCaprio.
Outstanding Performance in a Supporting Role by a Female Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate:
Julianne Moore, May December
This race could be quite interesting. In addition to the six performers above, I was tempted to select Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Viola Davis (Air), or Penelope Cruz (Ferrari). Ultimately my somewhat surprise pick is Pike, even though she also nabbed a Globe mention. I also have a weird suspicion that Brooks might be snubbed, but I’m keeping her in.
Outstanding Performance in a Supporting Role by a Male Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Alternate:
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
I’m selecting Dafoe over De Niro in a close call and don’t discount Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction). Anyone beyond those seven actors would be an unexpected party crasher.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Predicted Nominees:
The Creator
Ferrari
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Alternate:
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Feels weird not to have a comic book movie predicted, but it was a pretty weak for that genre. Somehow Mr. Wick’s headshots have never been recognized in this race and perhaps that changes here.
That means I’m projecting the following numbers in nominations for these pictures:
4 Nominations
Oppenheimer, Poor Things
3 Nominations
Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon
2 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro, Nyad, Saltburn
1 Nomination
American Fiction, The Color Purple, The Creator, Ferrari, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, May December, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
A weekend of awards precursors was a blessing for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It stormed tonight’s SAG Awards and won the top prize at PGA the evening before. Make no mistake – Everything is now an even stronger frontrunner to take BP at the Oscars.
At PGA, Everything emerged as predicted. Some prognosticators went with Top Gun: Maverick as an upset pick. It wasn’t to be. The Producers Guild also went with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio in the animated field. This is just as all other major precursors have done. It appears on a glide path for the Academy statue.
My PGA miss was in Documentary Feature as they chose Navalny over Fire of Love. Given that it’s won BAFTA and PGA, Navalny is the favorite. I don’t think it’s automatic (like I do with Pinocchio in Animated), but the odds are certainly in its favor.
Now… let’s get into SAG. Wow. I went 3 for 6. I correctly selected Everything for Best Ensemble. I nailed Stunt Ensemble for Top Gun: Maverick. And Ke Huy Quan made it a near sweep (though BAFTA went with Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin) with tonight’s Supporting Actor win. His acting race is the easiest to project for the Oscars.
The other three? They got more interesting. And I missed them all tonight!
By far, the biggest surprise is Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything) being named Supporting Actress over Critics Choice and Golden Globe winner Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), who I predicted and BAFTA winner Kerry Condon (Banshees), who was my runner-up. That potentially makes it a three-person derby at the Oscars. It is worth noting that 9 of the past 10 Supporting Actress SAG victors became the Oscar recipient. So… discount Curtis at your own peril.
In the lead acting races, my runner-ups crossed the SAG finish line. It was Michelle Yeoh (Everything) in Actress over Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) instead of Austin Butler (Elvis), who did get some airtime graciously escorting various winners up the steps. Best Actor and Actress at the Oscars are now legit two-person competitions and I’ll be mulling them over before making final predictions. They’re coming March 8th ahead of the March 12th ceremony!
Bottom line: Everywhere did everything it needed to this weekend and then some while three acting races added real intrigue. Stay tuned!
Ahead of Sunday evening’s Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, it’s the producers turn on Saturday night. The 34th PGA Awards winner for their best in show has matched the Oscar Picture victor 70% of the time in the previous decade. The times they diverged were 2015 with PGA naming The Big Short instead of Spotlight, 2016 with La La Land over Moonlight, and 2019 when 1917 took the producer prize as opposed to Parasite. PGA also has animated and documentary competitions. I’m walking through them one by one with a winner and runner-up projection.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
There’s a 7 for 10 correlation with the PGA contenders and the BP hopefuls from the Academy. The former has Black Panther, Glass Onion, and The Whale up while the Oscars went with All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking. The PGA is known for favoring blockbusters over some smaller pics from time to time. Previous examples that didn’t make the Academy’s cut include Bridesmaids, Skyfall, Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, and Crazy Rich Asians.
This helps explain why some prognosticators are favoring Maverick to take PGA’s highest award. Another explanation is that pundits are attempting to make the race more exciting than it actually is. I do believe Everything Everywhere All at Once is still most likely to emerge. Maverick does warrant runner-up status.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix rendering of the classic tale has cleaned up with precursors and there’s no reason to believe it won’t with PGA.
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
All That Breathes
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
Nothing Compares
Retrograde
The Territory
I wrongly picked Fire of Love to win the BAFTA instead of Navalny. Have I learned my lesson? Nope! I’m doubling down and saying a Fire PGA victory will make the Oscar quintet more competitive.
Predicted Winner: Fire of Love
Runner-Up: Navalny
I’ll have a recap up Saturday evening or Sunday ahead of the SAG show. If you missed my SAG predictions, they can be accessed here:
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