Category: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions: In the Hand of Dante

Julian Schnabel has Oscar history with Before Night Falls from 2000 (in which Javier Bardem was up for lead Actor), 2007’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (four noms including Director), and At Eternity’s Gate (Willem Dafoe contending for Actor). His latest is the period piece drama In the Hand of Dante, sporting an eclectic cast headlined by Oscar Isaac and including Gal Gadot, Gerard Butler, John Malkovich, Jason Momoa, Louis Cancelmi, Sophia Impacciatore, Franco Nero, and Al Pacino.

Stateside release is undetermined at press time. Despite the star power, distributors might not be lining up since this was generally considered one of the misfires at the Venice Film Festival. While some critics tipped their cap to its ambition, most say it wasn’t brimming with overall quality. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 35% and that should ensure Dante doesn’t fire up awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Roofman

Before it drops in theaters on October 10th, Roofman has played the Toronto Film Festival. While reactions aren’t through the first portion of its title, they’re overwhelmingly positive. Based on the true story of a military man turned thief, Channing Tatum headlines the dramedy with Kirsten Dunst as his love interest. Costars include Ben Mendelsohn, Peter Dinklage, Uzo Abuda, Juno Temple, Emory Cohen, Melonie Diaz, and LaKeith Stanfield.

While this seems like an unconventional choice for Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines director Derek Cianfrance, critics are mostly thumbing it up. Rotten Tomatoes is at 90% with 74 on Metacritic. Some reviews are saying this is a career best performance from Tatum and complimenting the chemistry with Dunst. They could both be long shots for Academy attention. If Paramount slots this in Musical/Comedy instead of Drama (sounds like both are feasible) and campaigns Dunst in Best Actress as opposed to supporting at the Golden Globes, the odds could be improved for that ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

With Daniel Craig anchoring for the third time as eccentric sleuth Benoit Blanc, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery continues the mystery franchise. It premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a limited theatrical engagement slated for November 26th and Netflix release on December 12th. Rian Johnson returns as writer/director with the considerable supporting cast including Josh O’Connor, Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Mila Kunis, Jeremy Renner, Kerry Washington, Andrew Scott, Cailee Spaeny, Daryl McCormack, and Thomas Haden Church.

2019’s Knives Out was up for Original Screenplay and 2022 follow-up Glass Onion vied for Adapted Screenplay. They respectively lost to Parasite and Women Talking. Several critics in Canada are making the case that Wake is the strongest overall of the three pictures. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 82. It’s probably a safe bet that it’ll make the cut in Adapted Screenplay at the 98th ceremony. As for the cast, O’Connor and Close are being labeled as best in show. I’d say the latter, due to her infamous history of being nominated and not winning, stands a better chance with the Academy. Don’t be surprised if the sole nom for this is in its writing race.

The Golden Globes should should offer different opportunities. Both predecessors were nominated for Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy – with the original falling short to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Banshees of Inisherin taking the prize over Glass. Craig was nominated for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy for both. It was Taron Egerton (Rocketman) and Inisherin‘s Colin Farrell hearing their names called instead. I would suspect Craig will get in again (as will the film) and hope the third time is the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Lost Bus

The Lost Bus found its way to the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 19th limited theatrical release and October 3rd Apple TV streaming debut. The true life wildfire survival tale comes from Paul Greengrass (the Bourne franchise, United 93, Captain Phillips) with Matthew McConaughey and America Ferrara headlining. Yul Vazquez and Ashlie Atkinson costar.

The 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating is a little deceiving with the 66 on Metacritic more accurately reflecting the critical consensus. McConaughey (a 2013 Best Actor victor for Dallas Buyers Club) and Ferrera (a Supporting Actress nominee in 2023 for Barbie) are being appreciated for their performances, but not enough to anticipate their second tries at gold. Where Bus could be in sole contention is in Visual Effects. If it manages to make the shortlist, it might be a trendy pick for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Father Mother Sister Brother

Jim Jarmusch’s Father Mother Sister Brother is your surprise Venice Golden Lion winner (top prize) for 2025. The dramedy anthology from the veteran indie filmmaker boasts a cast featuring Cate Blanchett, Adam Driver, Tom Waits, Vicky Krieps, Mayim Bialik, Charlotte Rampling, Indya Moore, Luka Sabbat, and Sarah Greene.

The three act pic is being distributed by Mubi with a stateside release on Christmas Eve. While Italian reaction was positive, it would seem the jury’s verdict was even more effusive. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 79 on Metacritic.

Five of the last 10 Lion recipients have gone onto a Best Picture nomination from the Academy – The Shape of Water (which won), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (which also won), and Poor Things. Jarmusch has never been a fixture with Oscar voters. Despite the Venice boost, I doubt that will change with Original Screenplay perhaps being the only realistic possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Christy

Most recently in headlines for an American Eagle jeans ad controversy, the narrative should be shifting for Sydney Sweeney after Christy‘s premiere at the Toronto Film Festival. The true life boxing biopic casts the 27-year-old as ring champion Christy Martin. Animal Kingdom maker David Michôd directs with a supporting cast including Ben Foster, Merritt Wever, Katy O’Brian, and Ethan Embry.

Ahead of its planned November 7th theatrical release, early reviews are certainly mixed with 65 on Metacritic and 68% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, praise for Sweeney is high. In a year where she’s appeared in a string of underwhelming features (Echo Valley, Americana, Eden), critics are lauding her work and the makeup artists who render her appearance far different than those denim advertisements. She is now in the mix for Best Actress as is the Makeup and Hairstyling department. It should be noted, however, that Actress appears to be stocked with contenders in films with better critical reaction. Playing her trainer turned abusive husband, ink for Foster is impressive. A Supporting Actor bid could materialize though the attention could be trained on the lead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – John Candy: I Like Me

The 2025 Toronto Film Festival is officially underway and it opened with a documentary about Canadian comedic royalty. John Candy: I Like Me (borrowing a great line from his arguable career highlight Planes, Trains and Automobiles) recounts the actor’s personal and professional life life prior to his death at age 43 in 1994. Colin Hanks directs with Ryan Reynolds serving as a producer. It is slated for an Amazon Prime streaming debut on October 10th.

Early word-of-mouth from up north indicates this an affectionate and worthwhile (if conventional) experience that will satisfy fans of the legendary SCTV and silver screen performer. Nevertheless I’ve written scores of prediction posts on celebrity centered docs and it is rare for any of them to contend in Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards. Don’t look for this to buck the trend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Scarlet

Scarlet is not a hip reimagining of the Clue vixen when she was a young woman (though I’d totally watch that). It’s the latest Japanese action fantasy from filmmaker Mamoru Hosoda. The Toho title has premiered in Venice with a release in its home country in November and awards qualifying run anticipated stateside via Sony.

In 2018, Hosoda’s Mirai was one of the five contenders for Best Animated Feature, ultimately losing to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. Follow-up Belle, in 2021, failed to do the same despite fine critical reaction and impressive box office numbers.

There aren’t enough reviews on Scarlet yet for RT or Metacritic scores. However, the limited consensus thus far is that Scarlet is a bit of a letdown. That dynamic could shift as more feedback is available, but I’ve already seen enough to cast doubt that this is any threat to win Animated Feature and its nomination is certainly questionable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Cut

From Rocky to Raging Bull to Million Dollar Baby and The Fighter, boxing movies have a rich history with awards bodies. The Cut from Sean Ellis seeks to join that esteemed company with Orlando Bloom as a pugilist undergoing an unorthodox physical regimen. Caitriona Balfe and John Turturro (as a relentless trainer) costar.

You will see quite a few Oscar Prediction posts coming from 2025’s Toronto Film Festival in the coming days. The Cut actually premiered at last year’s Canadian event and is finally out this weekend domestically via distribution from Republic Pictures.

Critics are praising the work of Bloom and Turturro while notices for the pic itself are more mixed. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic lower at 54. That reaction and the low key release means this won’t make the cut with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Voice of Hind Rajab

The nation of Tunisia has seen only one of their pictures nominated for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars and that was 2020’s The Man Who Sold His Skin. Kaouther Ben Hania was the director and her follow-up is The Voice of Hind Rajab, which has premiered at Venice and will soon play in Toronto. Focused on the true story of a five-year-old’s killing in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, it has already been announced as Tunisia’s entrant for IFF.

Critical reaction thus far has resulted in a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes and the praise in Venice has been effusive including a reported 23 minute ovation. Executive producers on the project include Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix, Rooney Mara, and Alfonso Cuaròn. It is fair to assume that Voice will receive a major campaign from its as yet unannounced distributor. The international category already has plenty of viable contenders including frontrunner Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, and The Secret Agent to name just four. Even with that caveat, the Academy may not be able to ignore this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…