Category: Oscar Predictions

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actress)

My initial projections for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Actress. If you missed my takes on the other three acting derbies, they can be accessed at the bottom of the post.

As I’ve mentioned in the other write-ups, this is simply a super early snapshot of the possibilities. A year ago in my first forecast for the 95th Oscars, none of the five actresses I had pegged in this race ended up being nominated. However, the pictures for two of them (Emma Stone for Poor Things and Regina King in Shirley) were pushed back to this year and you can find their names below yet again. Three of the eventual nominees for 2022 were listed in Other Possibilities: eventual winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Cate Blanchett (Tár), and Ana de Armas (Blonde).

I’ll have Director and the big prize Picture posted tomorrow!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Natalie Portman, May December

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Other Possibilities:

Marisa Abela, Back to Black

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Annette Bening, Nyad

Regina King, Shirley

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Kate Winslet, Lee

Zendaya, Challengers

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actor)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actor)

My wildly early first look at the major categories for next year’s Oscars continues with Best Actor! If you missed my posts covering the supporting derbies, they are linked at the bottom.

Quite honestly, I had a hard time shrinking this list down to 15. Leaving out possible contenders such as Benedict Cumberbatch (The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar), Adam Driver (Ferrari), or Michael Fassbender (The Killer or Next Goal Wins) felt odd. Even Matt Damon for Air (out next weekend) is a legit hopeful. There’s plenty of others I could name.

It is worth pointing out that my inaugural projections for 2022 correctly placed eventual winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) in the top five while Austin Butler (Elvis) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) were both mentioned in Other Possibilities.

A final note (and there’s no great to broach this) is that I likely would’ve had Jonathan Majors (Magazine Dreams) in my quintet instead of in Other Possibilities a week ago. However, his weekend arrest obviously complicates the matter and throws any potential campaign into disarray.

Here’s the premiere forecast for ’23 and Best Actress is up next.

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTOR

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Untitled Bob Marley Movie

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Mike Faist, Challengers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Other Possibilities:

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Andre Holland, The Actor

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Jonathan Majors, Magazine Dreams

Charles Melton, May December

Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Lakeith Stanfield, The Book of Clarence

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)

My impossibly early and speculative first Oscar predictions for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post regarding the Supporting Actor hopefuls, you can find it here:

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

Before you know it, I’ll moving to my weekly (or every two weeks) forecasts for the main races. When I did these inaugural picks in this category last year, it correctly identified one eventual nominee (Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans) that made the quintet. However, she did so in lead Actress. Another (Hong Chau for The Whale) was listed in Other Possibilities.

Let’s get to it and Best Actor is up tomorrow!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Viola Davis, Air

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Julianne Moore, May December

Other Possibilities:

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Claire Foy, Strangers

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Lashana Lynch, Untitled Bob Marley Movie

Audra McDonald, Rustin

Carey Mulligan, Saltburn

Margaret Qualley, Poor Things

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Amy Ryan, Beau is Afraid

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

Just as I did last year, I waited an entire two weeks from the previous ceremony before pontificating on the next Oscars. There is my impossibly early look at the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards and it begins with Supporting Actor.

Let’s be clear that many of the 15 names I mention today will probably not be on the radar screen a little less than a year from now. Release dates will get pushed back and make some hopefuls ineligible. Some pictures will simply fizzle out. Roles will be smaller than anticipated or even bigger and perhaps contend in the lead derby.

With the four acting races and director, I’ll give you my five current picks with ten other possibilities. When it gets to Picture later this week, I’ll project my ten and list fifteen others.

In 2022, when I made my super duper early picks in Supporting Actor, it yielded none of the eventual contenders. Like I said… it’s early. Some of the names I said last time around were Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, Glynn Turman in Rustin, and Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. All three of those movies were pushed to 2023 and that’s why they materialize again.

Best Supporting Actress will be posted tomorrow. This is my snapshot of Supporting Actor.

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Josh O’Connor, Challengers

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Air

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Book of Clarence

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Matthew Goode, Freud’s Last Stand

Stephen Graham, Blitz

Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

Tahar Rahim, Napoleon

Glynn Turman, Rustin

Oscar Predictions: A Good Person

Zach Braff returns to the director’s seat as A Good Person opens in limited release on Friday before a wider output on March 31st. It casts Florence Pugh (a 2019 Supporting Actress contender for Little Women) and Morgan Freeman (five-time nominee who took Supporting Actor for 2004’s Million Dollar Baby) as individuals brought together by a tragedy involving the latter’s daughter. Molly Shannon, Chinaza Uche, Celeste O’Connor, and Zoe Lister-Jones costar.

Back in 2004, Braff’s debut behind the camera drew critical acclaim with Garden State (taking the Grand Jury prize at Sundance). Follow-ups Wish I Was Here (2014) and Going in Style (2017) drew more mixed reaction and so too has this. The drama stands at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes. Based on that reaction, A Good Person is a bad bet for any awards attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Air

Air is the fifth feature directed by Ben Affleck and it closed out the South by Southwest festival this weekend prior to its April 5th theatrical release. The 1984 set sports drama focuses on Nike’s decision to make a shoe deal with an NBA rookie by the name of Michael Jordan. In addition to being behind the camera, Affleck costars as the company’s co-founder Phil Knight. The director’s buddy Matt Damon headlines as marketing exec Sonny Vaccaro with a supporting cast including Jason Bateman, Marlon Wayans, Chris Tucker, Chris Messina, Matthew Maher, and real life married couple Viola Davis and Julius Tennon as MJ’s parents and chief negotiators. #23 himself is not played by an actor and appears only in archival footage.

Early reactions from Austin indicate that Air might be the first legit awards hopeful to be released on the ’23 calendar. Several of the reviews are outright raves with comparisons to Jerry Maguire and Moneyball (both nominated for Best Picture). If this hits with audiences (and indications are it’s a crowdpleaser), that only increases its chances to make the big dance.

Affleck, of course, was famously snubbed by the Academy in 2012 even though his second directorial effort Argo won Best Picture. He’s yet to be nominated for his filmmaking. However, three of his previous four pics (Gone Baby Gone, The Town, Argo) achieved one or more mentions from Oscar voters. The one that didn’t was his last – 2016’s flop Live by Night.

It’s early, but the chances of Air garnering nominations is high. I don’t know if Affleck will get his first directing nod, but this already looks like it’s shooting for one of the ten slots in BP. The original screenplay by Alex Convery, cinematography from three-time winner Robert Richardson, and editing from William Goldenberg are all possibilities.

As for the cast, I’m curious to see category placement. Damon could be put in lead and vie for his fourth overall acting nom behind Good Will Hunting, Invictus, and The Martian. Amazon could also choose to campaign everyone in supporting. The other male performer drawing lots of attention is Chris Messina as MJ’s agent David Falk. Fresh off her EGOT, Viola Davis might have the best chance and it would be her fifth nom after Doubt, The Help, Fences (where she won), and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. It might help that many felt she was just snubbed for The Woman King.

Bottom line: Air is a real contender in the game of Oscar and my prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Thousand and One

A Thousand and One is slated for release on March 31st after its unveiling at Sundance in January. The 90s set NYC drama from filmmaker A.V. Rockwell casts Teyana Taylor as a mom who kidnaps her son from foster care. Costars include Will Catlett, Josiah Cross, Aven Courtney, and Aaron Kingsley Adetola.

Thousand won a grand jury prize at the Park City fest and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% thus far. Taylor, a musical protege of Kanye West who recently appeared in Coming 2 America, is getting kudos for her work. While all critical reaction is positive – I’m not sure it is effusive enough to make this a major awards player.

If Focus Features really concentrates on it, you never know. My guess is this could get attention at the Indie Spirits Awards and not elsewhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Tetris

Tetris is not your typical blockbuster based on a video game, but instead a look behind the curtain at the iconic creation which burst onto the scene in the late 80s. Jon S. Baird (who previously made Stan & Ollie) directs Taron Egerton as the Dutch inventor who must face off with Soviets in the Cold War era to bring it to the masses. Costars include Toby Jones, Nikita Yefremov, Roger Allam, and Anthony Boyle.

Apple TV begins airing this on March 31st after it premiered at South by Southwest. It would seem that a corresponding theatrical output is not occurring. That would mean game over for its Oscar prospects from the get-go. This makes sense given the 81% Rotten Tomatoes is solid though most reviews aren’t outright raves. The streamer is far more likely to concentrate on the upcoming Killers of the Flower Moon from Martin Scorsese and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon (and potentially others) anyway.

Even without the ineligibility factor, Tetris doesn’t seem to have the pieces put together for a legit campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

**Blogger’s Note – shortly after posting, I was informed that this will have a limited L.A. theatrical run and is likely therefore eligible for consideration. It doesn’t change my underlying thoughts on the viability.

Oscar Predictions: Moving On

From 9 to 5 over four decades ago to Netflix’s recent Grace and Frankie to the very recent midsize hit 80 for Brady, Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin clearly enjoy collaborating. They’re back at it again this weekend with the limited release of Moving On. The comedy comes from filmmaker Paul Weitz, who directed Tomlin to a Golden Globe nom in 2015 for Grandma. Costars include Malcolm McDowell, Richard Roundtree, and Catherine Dent.

Moving first surfaced last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to mixed reactions. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 65%. Even though Brady has a slightly lower RT rating at the moment (62%), it has a better chance at Oscar recognition due to the song “Gonna Be You” from frequent nominee Diane Warren. This follow-up from the legendary actresses is highly unlikely to generate any Academy (or Globes) attention.

My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Shazam! Fury of the Gods

When the DCEU superhero flick Shazam! landed in 2019, it did so with a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score and an A Cinemascore rating. It did not generate any awards attention and that includes tech races like Visual Effects where this genre often nabs spots. However, it’s the MCU usually getting those noms and not their rival DC.

Director David F. Sandberg and star Zachary Levi reunite for Shazam! Fury of the Gods this Friday. Early reviews suggest it is a step down from its predecessor and the RT score is 70%. Prognosticators are projecting the box office will also fall short of the original from four years ago.

As far as awards prospects, the call is simple. Lightning won’t strike again with this franchise. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…