Category: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions: Foe

There’s an impressive array of Oscar players involved with Foe, the sci-fi thriller that premiered at the New York Film Festival over the weekend. It’s out next weekend via Amazon Studios. Garth Davis directed the 2016 drama Lion, which scored six nominations including Best Picture. Saoirse Ronan is a four-time acting hopeful (supporting for Atonement and lead for Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women). Costar Paul Mescal made the Best Actor quintet last year for Aftersun.

Yet the Big Apple fest resulted in non-fruitful buzz for Foe. With 10 reviews up, the Rotten Tomatoes score is a troubling 10% (yes, that’s one fresh). Despite the pedigree, do not expect this to find any friends in the voting branch of the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie arrives in theaters tomorrow and it’s the second animated feature based on the popular Nickelodeon series. Cal Brunker returns to direct with voice cast actors including Mckenna Grace, Taraji P. Henson, Kim Kardashian, James Marsden, and Kristen Bell.

Initial reviews are encouraging with an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That score may go down, but it’s currently higher than the 80% earned by its 2021 predecessor. However, I don’t really see this contending for Best Animated Feature. The first PAW didn’t and there’s other sequels or reboots that could stand a better shot. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, for example, boasts a 96% RT meter. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget has yet to drop and it could emerge as a hopeful. With Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Boy and the Heron, and Elemental probably already in and Wish on deck, don’t count on these dogs to make it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Settlers

The period piece Western The Settlers marks the debut directorial effort from Felipe Gálvez Haberle and it is the Chilean pick for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. It premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and has continued to play the circuit in Toronto.

All reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are positive at 100%. I’m not quite sure they’re glowing enough that it makes the final quintet in IFF (though it’s not totally out of the question). Chile has had one winner in the 21st century with A Fantastic Woman and one other nominee in 2012 with No. This would mark the third, but I’m not confident the voters will say yes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Tótem

Tótem from Lila Avilés has been announced as Mexico’s selection for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. The family drama premiered back in February at the Berlin Film Festival and has been making the rounds at the other fests since.

It will attempt to become the sixth Mexican title in the 21st century to make the foreign five with the Academy. The others were 2000’s Amores perros, 2002’s The Crime of Father Amaro, 2006’s Pan’s Labyrinth, 2010’s Biutiful, and 2018’s Roma (the sole victor). Reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are at 95% and there’s a few that are outright raves. I did not have this in my top ten possibilities when I updated my IFF forecast on the blog five days back. I could be underestimating it and we’ll see if it enters that list during my next forecast. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Peasants

The nation of Poland has announced that animated historical drama The Peasants is their pick for contention in International Feature Film at the Oscars. It comes from directors Dorota Kabiela and Hugh Welchman, whose 2017 predecessor Loving Vincent was a nominee for Animated Feature Film.

After its Toronto Film Festival premiere, a small sampling of reviews gives it 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Poles have put themselves in position for the international derby an impressive six times in the 21st century: in 2007 for Katyń, for 2011’s In Darkness, 2014’s Ida (the sole winner), Cold War in 2018, Corpus Christi in 2019, and last year with EO.

I wouldn’t count out The Peasants in either IFF or Animated Feature (though it’s a probably a stretch to think it gets in for both). It hasn’t been on my radar in my forecasts thus far, but don’t be surprised if it pops up in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Creator

The Creator, out Friday, marks the first feature from Gareth Edwards since Rogue One: A Star Wars Story from 2016. The sci-fi thriller with John David Washington is said to be a visual feast. Reviews themselves are mostly on the plus side with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score.

When Dune: Part Two was pushed back to 2024, the easy frontrunner for Visual Effects went with it. Now the VE competition is far more open with hopefuls like Oppenheimer and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (hoping to be the MCU’s first winner) in the mix.

It’s a strong possibility that The Creator is too. If so, it would mark the filmmaker’s second nod in a row for VE (Rogue lost to The Jungle Book seven years back). That’s likely to be the only race where this contends. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars Predictions: Io capitano

The Italian drama Io capitano follows the trek of two Senegalese men (Seydou Sarr and Moustapha Fall) to Europe. From Matteo Garrone (who last made Pinocchio with Roberto Benigni), the film premiered at Venice earlier this year and earned its maker the Silver Lion Prize (essentially Best Director). The nine reviews thus far on Rotten Tomatoes stand at 100%.

Already announced as Italy’s selection for Best International Feature, capitano will attempt to be the third feature from that nation to be nominated in the 21st century. The Great Beauty won the race in 2013 and The Hand of God was up in 2021.

While all write-ups thus far are positive, I’m not sure they’re strong enough that it will make the final five. I had this listed at #10 in my new update yesterday. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: No One Will Save You

Brian Duffield’s sci-fi horror tale No One Will Save You is generating some buzz with its Hulu debut this weekend. It did open earlier this week in New York and L.A. so it would qualify for Academy recognition. A practically dialogue free experience, it stars Kaitlyn Dever as a victim of an alien home invasion. The Booksmart lead is drawing positive ink for her performance. For the most part, so is the picture with a 75% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

This is not a genre that receives Oscar attention and it’s unlikely No One will. However, it is worth mentioning that the sound team is receiving lots of praise. The horror genre is one where the audio wizardry probably should gets more awards love. Yet I wouldn’t expect it to start here. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Fingernails

Christos Nikou’s Fingernails played the Telluride and Toronto festivals before it hits theaters in limited fashion on October 27th and runs on Apple TV beginning November 3rd. The mix of sci-fi and romance stars Jessie Buckley and Riz Ahmed with a supporting cast including Jeremy Allen White, Luke Wilson, and Annie Murphy.

While plenty of pics upped their Oscar visibility during September’s fest circuit, Nikou’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2020 debut Apples likely had the opposite effect. Reviews are mixed with a 55% Rotten Tomatoes rating. You can file this away as one that you won’t hear much about during awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Society of the Snow

J.A. Bayona’s Society of the Snow served as the closing night feature at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month and, as expected, has been submitted by Spain as their Oscar hopeful for International Feature Film. The survival drama is expected to be streaming on Netflix by year’s end. It tells the real life tale of Uruguayan Flight 571’s crash in the Andes Mountains in 1972. Bayona is no stranger to disaster dramas with 2012’s The Impossible, which nabbed Naomi Watts a Best Actress nod. His last pic was 2018’s dino sequel Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.

Based on a small sampling (9 reviews), Snow has lodged a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. Spain has had a spotty record getting their selections into the final five with the Academy. In the 21st century, The Sea Inside was the 2004 winner and 2019’s Pain and Glory was nominated. That’s where their luck ends.

I currently have Snow at #7 in IFF. Its chances are decent and getting a lot of eyeballs via Netflix should only assist. If I’m betting now, however, I’ll say it makes the shortlist and not the ultimate quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…