Trolls Band Together from DreamWorks is the third animated feature in the musical franchise out November 17th with Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, and many others on crooning duty.
Thus far the critical response is below its two predecessors. 2016’s Trolls sat at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes while 2020 follow-up Trolls World Tour was a hair under at 71%. At press time, Band Together has managed just 56% on the meter.
The two earlier Trolls entries failed to nab Animated Feature nods at the Oscars and this won’t either. In fact, I’d say it’s easily behind three other sequels in Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget.
Seven years ago, this series earned its only Academy mention for Timberlake’s smash hit “Can’t Stop the Feeling” (it lost to “City of Stars” from La La Land). This second sequel does boast an NSYNC reunion after two decades with the track “Better Place”. Yet it is not dominating the charts like band member JT’s aforementioned ditty managed. Like World Tour, Band doesn’t seem primed for an encore come awards time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is out November 17th with the review embargo having lifted this week. The prequel brings back Francis Lawrence, director of parts II-IV of the massive Jennifer Lawrence franchise. Tom Blyth (as the younger version of Donald Sutherland’s Snow) and Rachel Zegler lead the cast.
The film is nearly certain to have the lowest opening of the five features in the series. It would need to break $100 million not to and it might be fortunate to take in half of that out of the gate. Snakes currently has the lowest Rotten Tomatoes meter in the quintet at 67%, just under the 70% earned by both editions of Mockingjay.
Despite lauded production design and some decent original songs, Oscar voters completely ignored all previous Games. The best and probably only shot that Ballad has is a ballad from Olivia Rodrigo titled “Can’t Catch Me Now”. My guess is the Academy will still show no appetite for Hunger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Marking the 33rd entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Marvels is out Friday amid mixed buzz and lower than normal box office projections. The review embargo that lifted today may explain why.
Nia DaCosta’s sci-fi adventure with Brie Larson reprising her Captain Marvel role currently sports a 58% Rotten Tomatoes score. That ranks 31st out of the 33 pics ahead of only Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Eternals.
To be fair, some critics are calling it a fun if rather slight and forgettable superhero tale. Yet the most negative reviews are calling it one of the worst MCU flicks.
Visual Effects is the most prominent race where these movies get Academy attention. 13 of the previous 32 have. None have won. Unfortunately for The Marvels, even that aspect is being criticized. Lucky for the MCU, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will probably nab a spot in the eventual quintet like its two predecessors did. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Acclaimed German filmmaker Wim Wenders could have two bites at the Oscar apple in 2023. His fictional work Perfect Days is the Japanese entry for Best International Feature Film and it stands an excellent shot at making the eventual quintet.
The other possibility lies in the Documentary Feature race with Anselm. A 3D doc focused on painter and sculptor Anselm Kiefer, it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this year. It is scheduled for a limited stateside release on December 8th. Reviews thus far are mostly complimentary with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes meter.
However, I’m not convinced they’re quite sturdy enough. Anselm is a question mark in my view to even make the shortlist for inclusion. Lucky for its director, he has another movie in the mix with better odds. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paul B. Preciado’s French documentary Orlando, My Political Biography (out in limited fashion November 10th) explores the title character from a Virginia Woolf novel who changes gender midway through. It premiered at the Berlin Film Festival and has continued to play the circuit this fall. The Critics Choice documentary nods put it up for Best First Documentary Feature.
With an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, there are other docs generating more rapturous acclaim. Yet the subject matter could be tantalizing for awards voters. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t make the Academy’s shortlist of possibilities when revealed next month. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Marsh King’s Daughter is based on an acclaimed 2017 thriller by Karen Dionne, but the cinematic adaptation seems to be flying well under the radar. It opens tomorrow with Daisy Ridley of Star Wars fame headlining the cast alongside Ben Mendelsohn, Garrett Hedlund, Caren Pistorius, Brooklyn Prince, and Gil Birmingham. The Illusionist and Divergent director Neil Burger is behind the camera.
STXfilms was originally supposed to distribute Daughter before the company shuttered and now Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions are sharing output duties. Promotion has been scant and reviews are mixed with a 56% score on Rotten Tomatoes.
This might have had better luck going direct to streaming and skipping multiplexes. In addition to the box office challenges it faces, reaction guarantees it’ll be a non-factor on the awards circuit. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sony Pictures will release Freud’s Last Session on December 22nd. It premiered last week at the AFI Fest. Matt Brown directs the adaptation of Mark St. Germain’s play which imagines a fictional meeting between Sigmund Freud (Anthony Hopkins) and C.S. Lewis (Matthew Goode). Discussions on faith and psychology naturally follow.
The two-hander has drawn mixed reviews thus far (not enough for a Rotten Tomatoes score). While the script is being criticized and this will not generate any BP attention, there is the matter of Sir Anthony.
32 years after winning Best Actor for The Silence of the Lambs and three years after taking it again for The Father, the legend is unsurprisingly receiving praise for his work. At one time, I thought his awards viability could be stronger for One Life (which played the fest circuit this fall). However, its release date was recently slated for 2024.
With the so-so reviews, I suspect Hopkins won’t factor into this year’s leading man derby as it’s already stacked with likelier contenders from Bradley Cooper (Maestro) to Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) to Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and more. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As October closes out, my first predictions in two weeks sees changes with a few of the major categories along with a significant ranking alteration. American Fiction is back in the projected ten for Best Picture with Anatomy of a Fall falling to 11th. Jeffrey Wright from Fiction also gets into the quintet for Actor at the expense of Colman Domingo in Rustin.
Greta Lee returns to the Actress lineup with Margot Robbie (Barbie) out while Viola Davis (Air) is back in the Supporting Actress derby with Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) on the outside looking in. Charles Melton (May December) is in Supporting Actor with Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) now in sixth.
As for that ranking alteration, Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in 1st position in Actor for the first time with Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) now runner-up.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)
10. American Fiction (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Napoleon (PR: 13 (E)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Saltburn (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Ferrari
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
10. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Origin
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+2)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Promised Land (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Settlers
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
The Boy and the Heron
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Ferrari (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wonka (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
That shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
9 Nominations
Barbie
8 Nominations
The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
4 Nominations
Past Lives, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, May December, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge
Set in the gynecological ward of a Parisian hospital, Claire Simon directs the documentary Our Body. It premiered at the Berlin Festival back in February and made its rounds on the circuit before a limited release in August. With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score, it nabbed a key precursor nod in the doc race at the Gotham Awards earlier this week.
At this point, it’s a guessing game which pics in the genre make the Academy’s shortlist in a couple of months. Features like Beyond Utopia, 20 Days in Mariupol, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie have been my frontrunners. However, I can’t say enough how unpredictable this branch of voters tends to be. Our Body has the reviews to make the list of hopefuls. If it does, making the final five is certainly feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
When the Sundance Film Festival screened the psychological drama Magazine Dreams back in January, the Best Actor competition at the Oscars appeared to pick up a likely contender at an early stage. Jonathan Majors was on a roll having appeared as antagonist Kang the Conquerer in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania with his villainous role in Creed III on deck.
Dreams, while not achieving across the board raves for the picture itself, saw its lead heavily praised. Portraying a mentally unbalanced bodybuilder, Majors immediately garnered awards buzz. Disney (via subsidiary Searchlight) acquired distribution rights with plans for a spirited campaign in the lead actor race. When I wrote my Oscar Predictions post for Dreams at that time, I felt that Majors might be a can’t miss prospect for one of the five spots.
On March 25th, Majors was arrested on various assault charges. Earlier this week, his trial was set for late November. And today, Disney/Searchlight pulled Dreams from December 8th to a dreaded TBD status.
Obviously there are issues bigger than film and this is one of them. The career of Majors will be majorly impacted by the result of the pending proceedings. Yet Oscar speculation is what I focus on with this blog. The rescheduling news probably confirms that this performance is no longer a viable prospect this year or any other. Do not be surprised if Dreams is relegated to a Hulu streaming bow sometime next year with no theatrical output at all. It’s a remarkable turnaround from where we were in January.
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