Category: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions: The Fire Inside

Once known as Flint Strong due to the protagonist’s Michigan hometown, the retitled The Fire Inside premiered at the Toronto Film Festival. Scheduled for a Christmas Day domestic bow, Rachel Morrison (an Oscar nominated cinematographer for Mudbound) makes her directorial debut. Ryan Destiny stars as Olympic boxer Claressa “T-Rex” Shields with Brian Tyree Henry as her coach. Barry Jenkins, the acclaimed maker of Best Picture winning Moonlight, wrote the script.

Reviews say the sports flick mostly lands its dramatic punches. The RT score is 91% with a 69 on Metacritic. Despite the pedigree, I doubt Amazon MGM enters the awards ring here. One potential exception is with Henry who was a bit of a surprise Supporting Actor hopeful for 2022’s Causeway. He would likely be an unexpected contender, but it’s a small possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Critic

I have been penning a number of posts in the past few days based on reactions to screenings from the Toronto Film Festival. Anand Tucker’s The Critic is another, but it premiered at last year’s TIFF and is finally hitting theaters in the UK this weekend. Ian McKellen headlines the thriller as the London theater title character engaged in a blackmail scheme. Gemma Arterton, Mark Strong, Ben Barnes, Alfred Enoch, and Lesley Manville costar.

The film has taken its time finding a release schedule. That’s probably because reaction was decidedly mixed upon its Canadian unveiling. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 45% with a Metacritic score of 53. Despite some expected compliments for Mr. McKellen, this Critic will not be considered by voters in awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Better Man

If you see one biopic this year where the subject is primarily played by a CG monkey, some reviews are saying Better Man is that film. Michael Gracey’s follow-up to his smash hit musical The Greatest Showman premiered at Telluride before traveling to Toronto. It chronicles the life of Take That singer Robbie Williams and, yes, he’s portrayed as a motion-capture simian. Jonno Davies handles some voiceover work as the crooner with Alison Steadman and Steve Pemberton in the supporting cast.

Hitting theaters stateside in a limited fashion on Christmas Day, critics are claiming this is an unconventional and gimmicky genre piece. Most are also saying it kinda pulls it off as far as entertainment value goes. The RT score is 85%. Paramount could make a push for Better Man to be included in the Visual Effects derby thanks to that monkey. I doubt it contends anywhere else. This is likely a case where if it makes the shortlist of hopefuls in VE, it probably gets in. Getting there could be tricky. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Heretic

A24 has premiered Heretic at the Toronto Film Festival before it hits multiplexes on November 15th. The psychological horror pic casts Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East as Mormon missionaries who knock on Hugh Grant’s wrong door. Scott Beck and Bryan Woods co-direct. They are best known for penning the wildly successful A Quiet Place in 2018. On the flip side, they helmed and scripted Adam Driver’s dino adventure 65 last year. It was a box office and critical failure.

Early reaction from Canada indicates that Heretic mostly succeeds. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 89 with Metacritic at 67. Critics are certainly directing their applause to Grant in his creepy role. Despite four Golden Globe nominations for feature films (all in Musical/Comedy and he won for 1994’s Four Weddings and a Funeral), the Academy has yet to mention his name. That won’t change here as this genre rarely gets noticed by the voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Speak No Evil

Blumhouse’s Speak No Evil has developed some consensus approaching its Friday the 13th release. The thriller from director James Watkins stars James McAvoy, Mackenzie Davis, Aisling Franciosi, and Scoot McNairy.

A remake of a well-regarded 2022 Danish effort by Christian Tafdrup, most reviews say the American version doesn’t match intensity or shock value of the original. Write-ups are still saying it’s effective as it sports an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 63 Metacritic score.

Critics are lauding the work of McAvoy in this genre once again. That’s reminiscent of their praise for his work in 2017’s Split by M. Night Shyamalan. McAvoy managed to generate some awards buzz for that blockbuster. I doubt he’ll get that chatter for Speak. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Wild Robot

The 74th Academy Awards was the first year where Best Animated Feature was presented and DreamWorks Animation took that initial prize with Shrek. The studio has yet to win the race again as Disney has mostly dominated it. They are hoping for their second statue at the 97th ceremony courtesy of The Wild Robot.

Having premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 27th domestic debut, Chris Sanders (co-director of How to Train Your Dragon and The Croods) made the sci-fi fantasy based on Peter Brown’s series of novels. Voiceover work comes from Lupita Nyong’o, Pedro Pascal, Kit Connor, Bill Nighy, Stephanie Hsu, Mark Hamill, Catherine O’Hara, and Ving Rhames.

Early word-of-mouth from our neighbor to the north is welcoming. With an 83% Metacritic score and no tomatoes at press time, The Wild Robot is a serious contender not only for a nomination (which appears to be a foregone conclusion), but a victory.

In order to do that, it will still need to surpass Inside Out 2 from you know who. In my view, that is not a foregone conclusion. Yet DreamWorks probably has its best shot since that green ogre. Beyond Animated Feature, Robot‘s Original Score from Kris Bowers is being heralded. There’s also a song from Maren Morris titled “Kiss the Sky” that looks to make that quintet. Either are possible as those competitions are just starting to take shape. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Unstoppable

True life sports drama Unstoppable made a stop at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its December stateside release. William Goldenberg, an Academy Award winning editor whose credits include Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, and The Imitation Game, makes his directorial debut. Jharrel Jerome, Emmy recipient for When They See Us, stars as national championship wrestler Anthony Robles with Jennifer Lopez as his mother. The supporting cast includes Bobby Cannavale, Michael Peña, Don Cheadle, and Shawn Hatosy.

Reaction from up north indicates this is an effective if formulaic experience. Its chances in BP seem unrealistic. Five years ago, Ms. Lopez was widely expected to nab her first nomination in Supporting Actress for Hustlers. She did not make the dance. Buzz about her performance suggests she could have a second at bat in the same race with a vigorous campaign. I feel less confident she gets in for this than I did about Hustlers, however. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Nightbitch

Like other prognosticators, the trailer for Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch tempered my expectations for its Oscar chances. Based on a 2021 novel by Rachel Yoder, it stars six-time nominee Amy Adams as a stay-at-home who starts believing she’s a dog. The Fox Searchlight production costars Scott McNairy, Arleigh Patrick Snowden, Emmett James Snowden, Zoë Chao, and Jessica Harper. It has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival and rolls out domestically December 6th.

The trailer was underwhelming. I have had Adams listed at #1 in my Actress possibilities for several weeks. After all, there’s an overdue factor at play too. Director Heller has seen her actors get nominated with Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Yet the preview alone had me questioning whether or not to drop her from my projected quintet.

Buzz coming out of Toronto indicates displacing Adams from the #1 slot is definitely the right decision. Nightbitch is garnering mixed notices (69 on Metacritic). Some have said it is stronger than that trailer. Praise for Adams, though, is across the board. I suspect she could still make the final five in Actress and that would stand as its only nom (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay seem unlikely).

Competition could be a hindrance for a seventh podium try. At best, Adams might be fourth or fifth in contention. She could also be sixth or seventh at press time. We’ll see how it shakes out in my next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Hard Truths

Marianne Jean-Baptiste was up for Supporting Actress 28 years ago in Mike Leigh’s Secrets & Lies, which received five total nominations including Best Picture, Director, Actress (Brenda Blethyn) and Original Screenplay. Leigh and Jean-Baptiste have collaborated again for Hard Truths which was unveiled at the Toronto Film Festival before its December 6th stateside bow. Costars include Michele Austin, David Webber, and Tuwaine Barrett. It could certainly put Jean-Baptiste in the mix again and this time for lead Actress.

The Metacritic score for the drama is 86 while some reviews say it’s not top-tier Leigh. The British filmmaker is a five-time hopeful for Original Screenplay (he’s never won). In addition to his Lies mention, the other nominated screenplays are Topsy-Turvy, Vera Drake, Happy-Go-Lucky, and Another Year. He could still make the Academy’s cut for Truths, but it’s no guarantee given the slightly more mixed reaction.

Based on buzz alone, Jean-Baptiste would be a slam dunk for Best Actress inclusion. Yet there’s the competition to consider. That includes a growing list that includes Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and, yes, Amy Adams (Nightbitch). I also question whether distributor Bleecker Street is equipped to run an effective campaign. That said, she is certainly in the top 10 of competitors and likely close to making the quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: We Live in Time

John Crowley’s Brooklyn nabbed three Oscar nods at the 88th Academy Awards for Picture, Actress (Saoirse Ronan), and Adapted Screenplay. His 2019 follow-up The Goldfinch was expected to be an across-the-board contender but underwhelmed with critics and audiences. So where do we stand with his latest We Live in Time?

The rom dramedy stars Andrew Garfield (a previous nominee for Hacksaw Ridge) and Florence Pugh (who was up for Little Women). It has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to an October 11th stateside output. Initial word-of-mouth puts it somewhere in between Crowley’s previous projects.

Reviews are complimentary of the two leads while also saying it doesn’t bring much new to the genre. The RT score is 77%. Prior to its screening, Time had gotten most of its attention from an odd looking carousel horse from a publicity still. I invite you to Google it if you have no clue what I speak of. As for the picture, I doubt it enters the Academy’s conversation as distributor A24 has larger competitors in the horserace. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…