Prior to its March 7th domestic release, Mickey 17 has debuted overseas at the Berlin Film Festival. The sci-fi satire is Bong Joon-ho’s eagerly awaited follow-up to 2019’s Parasite which dominated the 92nd Academy Award by taking Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and International Feature Film. Originally slated for spring 2024, Mickey stars Robert Pattinson, Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, and Mark Ruffalo.
Early reviews suggests this is more in line with Joon-ho’s Okja as opposed to Parasite. With 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic, the acclaim isn’t as universal as the multiple Oscar winner. The release date would further suggest that Warner Bros won’t make this a major awards play (though this pattern did work for Dune: Part Two).
That said, some reaction is quite effusive. While Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay (it’s based on a 2022 Edward Ashton novel) could be a stretch, down the line tech races like Sound and Visual Effects could happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Captain America: Brave New World isn’t the sole fourth franchise entry seeking viewers over the holiday weekend. Renée Zellweger returns as the title character in Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy. It premieres on Peacock stateside tomorrow and has international theatrical distribution on Friday. Michael Morris directs with Hugh Grant, Colin Firth, and Emma Thompson reprising their roles from earlier installments. Newcomers to the series are Chiwetel Ejiofor, Leo Woodall, and Isla Fisher.
Reviews are providing mostly solid marks with 86% on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic at 71. Back in 2001, Bridget Jones’s Diary earned Zellweger Academy Award and Golden Globes nods in lead Actress (she respectively lost to Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball and Nicole Kidman from Moulin Rouge!). 2004 sequel Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason saw Zellweger get another nomination at the Globes for Actress in a Musical or Comedy where she fell short to Annette Bening (Being Julia). 2016’s Bridget Jones’s Baby received no significant awards play.
I wouldn’t rule out Zellweger (a two-time Oscar winner for 2003’s Cold Mountain and 2019’s Judy) getting some attention from Globes voters, but that will depend on competition. An Academy nom seems out of reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Of the three previous Marvel Cinematic Universe monikered Captain America pics, there is just one Oscar nomination among them. That would be middle feature The Winter Soldier from 2014 which was up in Visual Effects and lost to Interstellar.
This Friday marks the 4th feature in the sub-franchise and 35th overall MCU title with Captain America: Brave New World. Anthony Mackie takes on the title role for the first time in the Julius Onah directed adventure. Danny Ramirez, Shira Haas, Carl Lumbly, Xosha Roquemore, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, Giancarlo Esposito, Tim Blake Nelson, and Harrison Ford costar.
Not all reviews are subpar but a lot of them are breaking bad. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 51% with Metacritic at 43. That’s certainly on the lower rung of the record setting franchise’s numbers and by far the worst of the America quartet (which is said to be more of a sequel to 2008’s The Incredible Hulk).
Most MCU fare is only Academy competitive in Visual Effects. Beginning with 2008’s Iron Man, they’re 0 for 14 in that race. Some critics are complaining that World has the looks of a direct to Disney+ effort. I wouldn’t expect this to be the 15th hopeful for the visuals. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Fantasy adventure The Legend of Ochi was unveiled at Sundance prior to the A24 project’s April 25th release. Marking the directorial debut of Isaiah Saxon, the creature feature has drawn comparisons to 80s family flicks including E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial and The Neverending Story. Helena Zengel (who probably came close to a Supporting Actress nom for 2020’s News of the World), Finn Wolfhard, Willem Dafoe, and Emily Watson star.
While critics are appreciating its throwback vibe, reviews aren’t strong enough for serious awards consideration. Rotten Tomatoes is at 80% with a 66 on Metacritic. There is some kudos for its practical effects though I don’t believe they will register with the VE branch several months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Producers Guild of America (PGA) provided a weekend hat trick for Sean Baker’s Anora as it won their top award over my pick of The Brutalist. This is the same narrative that occurred Friday evening when it took Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards over Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama. Also on Saturday night, Baker was selected as the Directors Guild of America recipient over Corbet. As discussed in the blog post recounting that ceremony, the DGA and Oscar’s Best Director nearly always match.
In one weekend, Anora became the Academy’s frontrunner for Best Picture. There’s no other logical way to look at it. With Emilia Pérez significantly weakened due to Karla Sofia Gascón’s recent controversies and A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Wicked yet to grab any major BP precursors, Anora is elevated with CCA/PGA/DGA in a 48 hour period. Wicked still could win SAG in a couple of weeks and so could Conclave. I also feel the latter is a possibility for BP at BAFTA. The Brutalist is also a threat at the British equivalent of the Oscars. In other words, Best Picture isn’t over but Anora is your new leader (or continued leader if you had it in first). I have had The Brutalist in that position for months and that’s no longer the case.
As for the PGA’s other two categories, The Wild Robot is your Animated Theatrical Motion Picture while Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (not up at Oscar) is the documentary victor. I correctly called those two competitions.
Keep an eye on the blog throughout the coming days as I continue to post Case Of Oscar write-ups. I’ll also have BAFTA winner predictions up later this week!
As far as precursors go, it’s been a brutal weekend thus far for The Brutalist. At the Critics Choice Awards, the film’s sole victory was Adrien Brody in Actor. It lost the big race to Anora and, even more shockingly, Jon M. Chu took Director for Wicked over Brady Corbet.
At tonight’s Directors Guild of America Awards ceremony, this was the opportunity for Corbet to get back on track for what most prognosticators (including this one) figured would be a sweep over the season. The DGA’s main prize has matched Best Director at the Oscars 21 out of 24 times in the 21st century.
So what happened? Well, Anora went and altered Corbet’s narrative. Sean Baker is the winner and it makes what was considered a safe Oscar race to predict a tough one.
I correctly called the other two competitions as RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) took the First-Time Feature prize while Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev are your Documentary filmmaking recipients for Porcelain War.
My PGA reaction will be rolling in soon, but the DGA made an unpredictable season even more so.
Prior to its March 28th limited release stateside, The Ballad of Wallis Island landed at Sundance. The British comedy casts Tim Key as an accidental multi-millionaire who plots to reunite his favorite musicians (Tom Basden and Carey Mulligan) on his private island. Akemnji Ndifornyen and Sian Clifford costar. James Griffith, best known for TV production work on Black-ish and Grown-ish, directs.
Park City reaction praised Island as a heartwarming confection. With its spring release, I question whether Focus Features will make it a focus come awards time despite the 95% Rotten Tomatoes score and 76 Metacritic. Its best hope might be recognition at BAFTA where it could nab one of the 10 slots for Outstanding British Film. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 30th Critics’ Choice Awards aired this evening and this body had some tricks up their sleeve with some seriously surprising selections. Leading up to Best Picture, you would’ve been right to count out Sean Baker’s Anora. It had emerged victorious nowhere, even in the races where it was supposed to like Original Screenplay. I listed it as my runner-up to The Brutalist. Fun fact: this is your first CCA BP to not receive any other wins.
Let’s not start writing those Anora will take the Oscar BP columns. While it is certainly a possibility, just half of the previous 10 CCA BP recipients repeated with the Academy. If it manages to grab PGA tomorrow, it could rightfully become the soft frontrunner.
I went 13 for 21 overall in my picks. While Anora‘s sole win in BP was unexpected, the biggest shocker was easily in Director. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) was widely anticipated to sweep through the season and then CCA went and named Jon M. Chu for Wicked. He’s not even nominated for the Oscar. When’s the last time the Critics’ pick wasn’t up for the Academy’s trophy? That would be Ben Affleck for Argo and before that, you must go back to 2002 when they gave it to Steven Spielberg for his double feature of Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can.
My against the odds selection was Mikey Madison (Anora) over Demi Moore in The Substance. I should’ve gone bigger with my Anora upset calls. Moore did get Actress just as with the Globes. In fact, all the acting winners are also Globe takers: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist for its sole prize tonight in Actor and supporting players Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. The Moore/Brody/Saldaña/Culkin combo could absolutely be the Oscar quartet and they are certainly the favorites.
As for other categories, here’s where I was right:
Conclave in Adapted Screenplay; Emilia Pérez as Foreign Language Film and The Wild Robot in Animated Feature; A Real Pain is Best Comedy though it tied with Deadpool & Wolverine (so I guess I was half right); Wicked in Costume Design and Production Design; The Substance for Hair & Makeup, Challengers for Original Score; “El Mal” from Pérez in Original Song; and Dune: Part Two for Visual Effects.
Where I went wrong:
The Substance scored an out of nowhere win over BP Anora in Original Screenplay. Maisy Stella (My Old Ass) is the Best Young Actor/Actress instead of Izaac Wang in Dídi. Conclave is Best Ensemble over Wicked. In Cinematography, it’s Nosferatu and not The Brutalist. Challengers took the Editing category and not Anora.
What’s it all mean for BP? The Brutalist could’ve solidified frontrunner status tonight and it didn’t. The fact that Anora didn’t win anywhere else? Confusing. And we do have 4 legit acting favorites. Let’s see if PGA and DGA can muddy the waters tomorrow…
Here’s the win total for the various pictures in contention
3 Wins
Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
2 Wins
Challengers, Conclave, A Real Pain
1 Win
Anora, The Brutalist, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, My Old Ass, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered nine of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The final entry in this competition is Jon M. Chu’s Wicked.
The Case for Wicked:
If Best Picture were (ahem) a popularity contest, the adaptation of the iconic stage play would fly away with the gold. The worldwide tally is $722 million and counting and that’s just ahead of Dune: Part Two‘s global take. It tied for the second most Academy nominations at 10 (along with The Brutalist) contending in Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Precursor BP nods were achieved at the Globes, Critics Choice, and PGA and it’s also up for Ensemble at SAG.
The Case Against Wicked:
There are some key misses as BAFTA passed it by and it lost at the Globes in Best Film (Musical or Comedy) to Emilia Pérez (before recent controversy). Despite the double digits noms, the omissions for Chu’s direction and Adapted Screenplay are noteworthy. The voters could figure they can wait until part two coming later this year to honor it.
The Verdict:
Down the line victories in Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound in particular appear doable. I wouldn’t completely discount a Wicked BP win, but it’s a long shot. If it manages to take Ensemble at SAG, expect chatter to rise. I’d still be skeptical.
My Case Of Posts will continue with our first Best Actress hopeful and that’s Cynthia Erivo in Wicked…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered eight of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The next entry is The Substance from Coralie Fargeat.
The Case for The Substance:
Undoubtedly one of the buzziest (and bonkers) cinematic experiences of 2024, The Substance landed five nominations with Fargeat’s direction, Best Actress (Demi Moore), Original Screenplay, and Makeup and Hairstyling in the mix. Actress and Makeup and Hairstyling are particularly possible for victories. As far as precursors, BP noms were achieved at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and PGA.
The Case Against The Substance:
The Academy doesn’t typically hand out BP wins for the body horror genre. It might be a little too out there for some voting members. While its precursor performance was impressive, it missed the BP cut at BAFTA. The only two pics in the 21st century to miss BAFTA and take the top prize at the Oscars are 2004’s Million Dollar Baby and 2021’s CODA. It fell short to Emilia Pérez in the Musical or Comedy competition at the Globes.
The Verdict:
The Substance has the stuff to be an Oscar recipient next month, but not in BP.
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