A24’s Death of a Unicorn has screened at South by Southwest prior to its March 28th theatrical premiere. The horror comedy from Alex Scharfman stars Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega as a father-daughter who accidentally cause the title of the film to occur. This displeases another unicorn. The supporting cast includes Will Poulter, Téa Leoni, Richard E. Grant, and Anthony Carrigan.
Early reviews are complimentary mixed with so-so notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 70% with Metacritic at 60. Unicorn represents the latest feature in a growing eat the rich sub genre that includes Triangle of Sadness, The Menu, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Saltburn. Some of those titles received awards attention. Don’t expect Death to. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Jack Quaid is the unconventional titular character who feels no pain in Novocaine next weekend. The action comedy comes from directors Dan Berk and Robert Olsen with Amber Midthunder, Ray Nicholson, Jacob Batalon, Betty Gabriel, and Matt Walsh in the supporting cast.
Critics are mostly satisfied with what they’re seeing. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 89% with Metacritic at a more telling 68. This is not a feature made for the Academy’s microscope, but it’s worth entertaining whether Quaid could play at the Golden Globes in Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy (similar to Ryan Reynolds from Deadpool).
My guess is that Novocaine will not be on that awards body’s radar either several months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
What does an astronomical $320 million budget get you in Hollywood these days? Apparently a mid-March Netflix release and a heap of critical derision. Meet The Electric State, a comedic sci-fi adventure hitting the streamer March 14th from Anthony and Joe Russo of Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame fame. The human cast for the ultra expensive flick includes Millie Bobby Brown, Chris Pratt, Ke Huy Quan, Stanley Tucci, Woody Norman, Giancarlo Esposito, and Jason Alexander. An equally impressive voice cast includes Woody Harrelson, Anthony Mackie, Brian Cox, Jenny Slate, Alan Tudyk, Hank Azaria, Colman Domingo, and Rob Gronkowski.
It is worth noting that the Russo’s follow-ups to the Avengers juggernauts are the unimpressively reviewed Cherry and The Gray Man. Yet this appears to be receiving the worst of it with 23% on Rotten Tomatoes and 30 on Metacritic. The term “wasted potential” pops up more than once. Only the visual effects would be a possibility for awards attention and the Electric buzz might sink that. This has much more viability at the Razzies than with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving just weeks after his well-reviewed haunted house flick Presence, the prolific Steven Soderbergh helms the spy thriller Black Bag. Out March 14th, David Koepp handles screenplay duties (he also scripted Presence) with eight-time nominee and two-time Academy winner Cate Blanchett and two-time nominee Michael Fassbender starring. The supporting cast includes Marisa Abela, Tom Burke, Naomie Harris, Regé-Jean Page, and Pierce Brosnan.
Critics are digging what they’re finding in Bag. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 95% with Metacritic at 86. Blanchett, Fassbender, and Brosnan (in what’s said to be a small but memorable role) are getting kudos as are the screenplay and cinematography.
That said, Bag probably isn’t an awards play for Focus Features despite the impressive reviews thus far. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After months of speculation and a whole lotta blog posts covering the various competitions, the 97th Academy Awards is now in the history books. It was a history making night for Anora maker Sean Baker. His four statues tie for the most Oscars received in a single evening. He’s in iconic company. The other individual to achieve it is Walt Disney.
Anora was the story of the night with five victories. I went 17 for 20 in my predictions and the three I missed is where I didn’t pick Anora. I correctly called it in Best Picture and Original Screenplay (wins 1 and 2 for Baker). I incorrectly selected Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) over Baker in director (win 3). Conclave was my wrong pick for Film Editing when went to Baker (win 4). Mikey Madison’s work in the title role was my third misstep as she took gold over Demi Moore (The Substance). Just as Everything Everywhere All at Once dominated the show two years back and Oppenheimer did so a year ago, it was Anora‘s night to shine.
The ceremony itself only ran about 15 minutes over with first-time host Conan O’Brien doing a solid if unspectacular job at the helm. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande kicked things off in soaring fashion with their performance of “Defying Gravity” from Wicked. That was a high point. A rather pointless 007 tribute was a bit of a head scratcher. Overall the show was fine with a heartfelt Gene Hackman tribute from Morgan Freeman being another memorable moment.
Let’s run down what I got right quickly. That includes the other three acting derbies as Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is now a two-time Best Actor with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) completing their supporting sweeps.
Frankly, I didn’t think I’d pull off the hat trick of International Feature Film, Animated Feature, and Documentary Feature. I managed it with the respective winners I’m Still Here, Flow, and No Other Land.
Other than the aforementioned Film Editing, all other down the line contests were correct calls: Cinematography and Original Score to The Brutalist; Costume Design and Production Design for Wicked; The Substance in Makeup and Hairstyling; “El Mal” as Original Song for Emilia Pérez; Sound and Visual Effects to Dune: Part Two.
The win counts were as follows for the following pictures:
5 Wins
Anora
3 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
1 Win
Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain, The Substance
Now it’s time to shift focus to the 98th. So keep an eye on this blog for all the speculation that fits…
Dito Montiel directs the crime comedy Riff Raff, premiering this weekend from Roadside Attractions. Jennifer Coolidge, Ed Harris (pulling double duty with My Dead Friend Zoe out this frame), Gabrielle Union, Lewis Pullman, Pete Davidson, and Bill Murray make up the impressive cast.
It originally debuted at the Toronto Film Festival last fall to mixed notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 55% with 45 on Metacritic. This certainly isn’t an Academy play, but better reviews could’ve put this in contention at the Globes next year in the Musical or Comedy derbies. The so-so buzz eliminates that possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My Dead Friend Zoe marks the feature-length directorial debut of Kyle Hausmann-Stokes. The dramedy is out in limited fashion this weekend. It premiered nearly a year ago at South by Southwest and stars Sonequa Martin-Green and Natalie Morales with support from Gloria Reuben, Utkarsh Ambudkar, Morgan Freeman, and Ed Harris.
Reviews are mostly impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 on Metacritic. The indie flick might be too small (and too early in the release calendar) to resonate with the Academy for next year’s ceremony. A stronger possibility could be the Independent Spirit Awards taking notice, particularly in Best First Feature for Hausmann-Stokes and maybe Lead Performance for Martin-Green. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…
After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…
After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…
After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…
These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!
We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.
BEST PICTURE
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.
Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.
PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.
PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.
PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.
PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.
PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: A Real Pain
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.
PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.
PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.
PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND
Runner-Up: Porcelain War
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Nosferatu
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Academy voters should ride with Wicked.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
All signs point to The Substance.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.
PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
This should be Dune‘s other victory.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: Better Man
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…
4 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
1 Win
Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain
The 31st SAG Awards added to the unpredictability of Oscar night in one week by crowning Conclave as the Best Ensemble recipient. This occurs seven days after it got BAFTA’s largest prize. The correlation between the Academy’s Best Picture and SAG ensemble is 6/10 in the past decade. Conclave still may not be the frontrunner next Sunday but its chances are looking better.
I predicted Wicked would take Ensemble while plenty of others went with Anora. Had the latter emerged victorious, it would’ve solidified frontrunner positioning in BP. Now Oscar night’s biggest race appears to be a three-way contest between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave with genuine suspense as to what will come out on top.
Ensemble was the only category I missed as I went 5/6 in my projections. I’ll gladly take that in this unpredictable season. Both lead acting derbies were coin flips where I managed to make the right call. Demi Moore (The Substance) won and she now has SAG, Critics Choice, and the Globe with Mikey Madison (Anora) claiming BAFTA. I am still deciding who will take the Oscar.
For Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) picked up his first major trophy over Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). I had a hunch this might happen as the SAG voters ignored Brody’s costars Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce and nominated Chalamet’s cast mates Monica Barbaro and Edward Norton. I’m not convinced the Academy will follow suit, but it’s surely more of a two-way race now.
The supporting fields appear set in stone as Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) have now swept the season. Anyone other than them making podium trips next Sunday would be a rather shocking upset at this juncture.
Finally, The Fall Guy nabbed Best Stunt Ensemble as I figured the movie about stunt performers would.
Keep an eye on the blog as I wrap up my Case Of posts with those final predictions (!) coming Wednesday.
The 78th British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) have occurred across the pond. What will be the ripple effect for the Oscars in two weeks? Let’s get into it!
Last weekend, the PGA/DGA/Critics Choice Awards troika rightfully vaulted Sean Baker’s Anora to frontrunner status at the Academy Awards. My feeling (shared by plenty of prognosticators) is that Anora would have a tougher time taking top prize at BAFTA. That turned out to be true, but it did nab an award that could shake up another major competition.
Edward Berger’s Conclave is your BAFTA Best Film and I correctly called that. It wins two years after the director’s All Quiet on the Western Front did the same. A very important reminder: Best Picture at the Oscars and Best Film at BAFTA have matched just twice in the past decade. For those thinking this vaults Conclave into winning status in two weeks, think again. If it can be named Best Ensemble at SAG next weekend, chances improve.
Brady Corbet is Best Director for The Brutalist (another correct call). This adds intrigue to the Academy’s directorial competition as Sean Baker won DGA last weekend for Anora. They should battle it out for Oscar.
Overall I went 17 for 24 in my projections. Before I get into the acting derbies and screenplay contests, let’s do a quick review on where I went right elsewhere. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl is the honoree for Animated Film while Emilia Pérez escaped its controversies to become Best Film Not in the English Language. The Brutalist took Cinematography and Original Score. Wicked is both your Costume Design and Production Design victor. Make Up & Hair went to The Substance. Conclave won Editing with Dune: Part Two emerging in Sound. Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer went to Kneecap with Conclave predictably taking Outstanding British Film.
Here’s where I went wrong in the down the line competitions. I went out on a limb with Better Man in Special Visual Effects and it was Dune: Part Two. In the Rising Star Competition, the Brits chose one of their own (David Jonsson) instead of Mikey Madison. Jonsson received plenty of complimentary notices in 2024 for Alien: Romulus. We are not done with Madison though.
In the newly created Children’s and Family Film race, it was Wallace & Gromit again and not my predicted The Wild Robot. And Anora aced Best Casting over Conclave. Finally, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story is your Best Documentary despite not being up at Oscar. I went with No Other Land which is considered the soft Academy favorite.
Now let’s get to our acting and writing showdowns. In maybe the biggest upset of all, Jesse Eisenberg won Original Screenplay for A Real Pain. I had Anora projected with The Brutalist as my runner-up. Truth be told, my second runner-up would’ve been The Substance so Pain managing this was truly unexpected. On the other hand, Conclave is the Adapted Screenplay winner which was expected.
Three of the four frontrunners in the acting races made English podium walks today and solidified their positions. That would be Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) as Best Actor and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) in their respective supporting fields. For any of this trio to be denied a sweep, the SAG Awards would need to provide that disruption next weekend.
The other frontrunner after winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice was Demi Moore in The Substance. Yet the BAFTAs went with Mikey Madison (Anora) and this sets up an unpredictable competition between them.
Bottom line: the BAFTAs made Best Actress and Director more intriguing while I wouldn’t read too much into the Conclave selection. Keep an eye on the blog for more speculation as we hurdle toward Oscar night.
Here’s the breakdown of movies that won BAFTAs:
4 Wins
The Brutalist, Conclave
2 Wins
Anora, Dune: Part Two,Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked
1 Win
Kneecap, The Substance, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 