The Best Picture race for next year’s Oscars has officially begun with the screening of Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher at the Cannes Film Festival. A couple of months back, I wrote a post suggesting the longshot possibility that The Grand Budapest Hotel could nab a nomination. It’s still certainly possible, but unlikely as the real heavyweights for consideration will hit this fall and winter.
There’s nothing unlikely about Foxcatcher‘s chances. The pic is directed by Bennett Miller, whose last two features (2005’s Capote and 2011’s Moneyball) both scored Best Picture nods. It focuses on the true story of Schultz brothers Mark (Channing Tatum) and Dave (Mark Ruffalo) and their relationship with schizophrenic John du Pont (Steve Carell). Reviews coming out of Cannes have been magnificent. To say this is the first surefire Oscar contender is an understatement.
Its significant Best Picture (and Director) chances aside, critics have been truly over the moon regarding Carell’s work – so much so that Variety declared his nomination a “lock”. Director Miller’s films have given the late Philip Seymour Hoffman a Best Actor win for Capote and Brad Pitt a nomination in the same category for Moneyball. The consensus for Carell is that this will be the role that changes his career from dependable comic everyman to serious dramatic actor. This is also familiar territory for Miller: it was Moneyball that significantly changed Jonah Hill’s career trajectory and also earned him first Oscar nomination. It is unclear yet whether Sony Pictures Classics will campaign Carell in the Actor or Supporting Actor race. Tatum is reportedly the star and it sounds like his chances to score a nod are also on the upswing. Either way, based on today’s reaction alone, you can use pen to fill Carell’s name for Academy recognition and not pencil.
The bad news for us? We have to wait until November to see the film as it opens stateside November 14.
Yes, the Oscar ceremony celebrating the best of film in 2013 was just four days ago. Yes, it’s entirely too early to start speculating on next year’s Oscars.
Or perhaps not because tomorrow brings us what could be the first legitimate Oscar contender of 2014. It comes in the form of Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Director/writer Anderson has a very loyal following that include most critics. Some of his acclaimed works include Bottle Rocket, Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and Moonrise Kingdom. All were favorites in the critical community. None have received a Best Picture nomination.
There may a feeling that Anderson is due and Budapest could be that movie. It stands at a solid 87% so far on Rotten Tomatoes. It also has one heckuva cast – with lead Ralph Fiennes joining Adrien Brody, Willem Dafoe, Jeff Goldblum, Harvey Keitel, Jude Law, Bill Murray, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Jason Schwarztman, Tilda Swinton, Tom Wilkinson, and Owen Wilson. In early reviews, Fiennes has particularly been singled out and we could hear his name mentioned as a Best Actor candidate.
The picture has a great shot at a Best Original Screenplay nomination where Anderson has been nominated twice before for Tenenbaums and Kingdom. It goes without saying, but there’s no way to currently know how good a year 2014 will turn out to be. It’s not even out yet, but I’ll say with confidence that Budapest wouldn’t have been nominated in 2013.
However, 2013 was a rather strong year. With the combination of an overdue feeling for Anderson and current positive buzz, this is 2014’s first Oscar contender.
Here they are! My FINAL predictions in all categories (minus the short film races) for this year’s Academy Awards. Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve written individual posts predicting the six major categories. At the time, I said that those could change by final prediction time. None of them have.
However, the Best Picture race in particular has changed a bit in my mind. I believe the chances of Gravity emerging as the winner over 12 Years a Slave is greater than even a couple of days ago. As mentioned before, I see only those two pics and American Hustle as legit contenders for the award. My percentage chances have evolved though: I’d put 12 Years at 60%, Gravity at 25%, and Hustle at 15%.
These final predictions will reflect my pick for winner as well as my runner-up prediction in case I’m wrong. Let’s get right to it:
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave
Runner-Up: Gravity
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Runner-Up: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Runner-Up: Amy Adams, American Hustle
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Winner: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Runner-Up: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Winner: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Runner-Up: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave
Runner-Up: The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Winner: American Hustle
Runner-Up: Her
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Predicted Winner: The Great Beauty
Runner-Up: The Broken Circle Breakdown
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Winner: The Act of Killing
Runner-Up: 20 Feet from Stardom
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Winner: Frozen
Runner-Up: The Wind Rises
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Winner: Gravity
Runner-Up: Nebraska
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Winner: American Hustle
Runner-Up: The Great Gatsby
BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted Winner: Gravity
Runner-Up: Captain Phillips
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Winner: Dallas Buyers Club
Runner-Up: Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Winner: Gravity
Runner-Up: Her
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Winner: “Let It Go” from Frozen
Runner-Up: “No Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Winner: The Great Gatsby
Runner-Up: Gravity
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Winner: Gravity
Runner-Up: Captain Phillips
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Winner: Gravity
Runner-Up: Captain Phillips
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Winner: Gravity
Runner-Up: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
And there’s my final predictions for Sunday night, folks! I’ll have an update following the show outlining how I did.
After five posts predicting the other major categories for this year’s Academy Awards, we’ve arrived at the biggest race of all: Best Picture. Here are the nine nominees:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
As I see it, there are three films that stand a realistic chance at taking home the gold. Those three do not include Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, or The Wolf of Wall Street.
That leaves us with American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years a Slave.
While I have predicted that Alfonso Cuaron will win Best Director for Gravity (a pick I’m highly confident in), the chances of his picture winning are much more slim. While it was a hit with audiences and critics – the sci-fi epic has won no major precursors to speak of. Its recognition should come to Cuaron and in various technical categories.
American Hustle certainly has plenty of fans and director David O. Russell has been on a heckuva hot streak. The pic stands the second best chance of being the victor.
However, the fact is that Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave is undeniably the frontrunner and it has been for awhile. Slave has won a slew of precursors, including the Golden Globe for Best Drama. From an odds perspective, I’d put it this way:
12 Years a Slave: 75% chance of winning
American Hustle: 20% chance of winning
Gravity: 5% chance of winning
Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave
For a full breakdown of my picks, here ya go:
Picture – 12 Years a Slave
Director – Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Actor – Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Actress – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Supporting Actor – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Next weekend – I’ll have my final predictions in all categories before the big show. If any of the six major ones change in the next week (unlikely), I’ll act accordingly. Until then!
We’re just over a week away from the Oscars and over the last few days, I’ve been posting my predictions for winners in the six major races. So far the acting categories are covered with the following picks:
Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
This brings us to Best Director. Let’s recap the nominees:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
We begin with getting Payne and Scorsese out of the way. They’re highly unlikely to be the victors. That leaves us with Cuaron, McQueen, and Russell.
We’ll get to my Best Picture prediction soon enough on the blog, but many see 12 Years a Slave as the frontrunner for the race. That would mean McQueen wins, right? Not necessarily.
David O. Russell has truly been on a roll lately with The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and now American Hustle. Academy voters may want to reward his incredible hot streak – especially if Hustle performs well in other categories and has a better than expected evening.
Having said that, the momentum is undeniably with Cuaron. While Gravity may not win the biggest prize, critics and audiences marveled at the director’s technical achievements here. This could be somewhat of a repeat of 2012 when Argo won Picture, but Director went to Ang Lee for his amazing job with Life of Pi.
Cuaron has won basically all the precursors and this seems like a perfect spot for Gravity to win a high-profile category.
Best Director Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Picture is up next and it’ll be up this weekend. I’ll have my final predictions in all categories a couple of days before the show. Stay tuned!
Tonight on the blog brings me to my prediction for Best Actor and, so far, this is the most difficult one. While Jared Leto for Supporting Actor and Cate Blanchett for Actress are safe bets and I picked Lupita Nyong’o in Supporting Actress as a slight favorite over Jennifer Lawrence – the Actor race boasts four performers who could possibly win. Let’s recap them:
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Mr. Bale was a bit of a surprise nominee and he’s the one that I see very unlikely to emerge victorious. As for the others – a 12 Years sweep could reward Ejiofor, though he’s won no major precursors. Same goes for Dern, though the Academy could pick him to honor his decades long career. As a side note – 2013 was unquestionably a strong year for lead actor roles. In lesser years – Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips, Joaquin Phoenix in Her, Robert Redford in All is Lost, or Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler would have been nominated.
The likely scenario is a battle between Mr. DiCaprio and Mr. McConaughey. With his acclaimed Dallas Buyers Club role, McConaughey is the frontrunner. He’s also won the lion’s share of precursor awards. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s had a truly impressive career resurgence over the past couple of years.
With all that said, I have a gut feeling that DiCaprio’s chances are improving. Many of his performances have received raves yet he hasn’t taken home a gold statue. His work in Wall Street is among his most acclaimed performances and voters might feel like it’s his time.
While the argument for Leo is strong, it just isn’t enough for me (at this point) to go against McConaughey – though I’ll reserve my right to change picks in my final predictions post in a couple of weeks.
Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
And now we continue with my predictions for winners in the six major categories for the Oscars in early March. I’ve already weighed in with my Supporting predictions for Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave and Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club. Tonight I move forward with Best Actress. Let’s recap the five nominees:
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
For awhile it appeared that this race could be a tight one between Blanchett and Bullock. However, all major awards precursors have bestowed Blanchett with their awards for her work in Woody Allen’s film. To say the least, the momentum has swung for her in a big way.
There’s been some chatter that the controversies Mr. Allen finds himself in could negatively impact her ability to win. Simply put, I’m not buying it. If anyone were to win other than Blanchett it would constitute quite an upset and I don’t see it happening. This prediction, like Leto for Supporting Actor, is an easy one to make.
Tonight I continue on with my Oscar predictions in the six major categories as to who/what I think will win. A couple of days ago, I forecasted Supporting Actress and predicted a win for 12 Years a Slave‘s Lupita Nyong’o. We move forward with Supporting Actor. Let us recap the nominees:
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
This category was of interest due to the high number of people who could have been nominated. Those mentioned in prediction circles that didn’t make the final cut include James Gandolfini in Enough Said, Daniel Bruhl in Rush, Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks and Will Forte in Nebraska.
While the net was wide for could have been honored with a nomination, the list is considerably shorter as to who will win. And that list pretty much comes down to one name: Jared Leto. The actor/musician’s work in Dallas Buyers Club represented a major movie comeback for him and he’s been rewarded with just about precursor there is – Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and several regional critics associations.
If anyone else were to take home the gold statue, it would be a huge upset. I see Fassbender as the only one with a remote shot at the upset, but Leto is easily one of the safest bets in the top categories.
Predicted winner: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
I’ll be back soon with my prediction for Best Actress!
With the Oscars less than a month away – today I begin my picks on who will win in the six major categories at the ceremony. There will be a final round of predictions for all the races – probably two days prior to the telecast. We begin with Best Supporting Actress. Let’s recap the nominees, shall we?
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
The precursor awards have been split among Lawrence and Nyong’o. The Golden Globes, New York Film Critics, and National Society of Film Critics went with Lawrence while the SAG Awards and Critics Choice bestowed Nyong’o with the honor.
Simply put, this race appears to be down to those two ladies. A win for Hawkins, Roberts, or Squibb would be a major upset. Last year, Lawrence won Best Actress for Silver Linings Playbook and a victory for her here would pull off the rare feat of an actor winning two years in a row. The last time it occurred was 20 years ago with back-to-back wins for Tom Hanks in Philadelphia and Forrest Gump.
American Hustle received nominations in all four acting categories and Lawrence’s inclusion represents the best shot at a win. That said, I believe the slight momentum is on the side of Nyong’o. Her nomination also represents the greatest chance for 12 Years to get a win in the acting races. From a statistics point of view – I’d put it at about 55% Lupita, 45% J-Law at this juncture and we’ll see if that remains the case in my final picks a few weeks from now.
Predicted Winner for Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
This morning the Oscar nominations rolled in and it’s time to see just how well (or not) I did in each of the categories. Let’s get to the races and I’ll provide some commentary on them as well!
BEST PICTURE
Todd’s Picks: 8/9
As its been in the past two years, nine pictures made the cut out of a possible five to ten. I correctly selected American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyer’s Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, 12 Years a Slave, and The Wolf of Wall Street. Just one incorrect guess: I predicted the Coen Brothers Inside Llewyn Davis over Philomena. So… not too shabby. As it stands, I would still say 12 Years a Slave is the frontrunner. However, in my past predictions, I’ve identified Gravity as the potential spoiler. While that’s still the case, I would add American Hustle as being on equal footing with it for a “surprise” win, due to its even better than expected showing today.
BEST DIRECTOR
Todd’s Picks: 5/5 (!)
Last year there were tons of surprises in this category when Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) were shockingly shut out. I only ended up going 2/5 in Best Director in 2012. This time around, I got ’em all: Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity, Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave, Alexander Payne for Nebraska, David O. Russell for American Hustle, and Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street. Cuaron and McQueen should fight it out for the win with Russell as a spoiler.
BEST ACTOR
Todd’s Picks: 3/5
For months, the conventional thinking was that six actors – Bruce Dern, Leonardo DiCaprio, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Tom Hanks, Matthew McConaughey, Robert Redford – were vying for five spots. Turns out we should have called it a seven man race as Christian Bale’s work in American Hustle got a fairly surprising nod. Dern (Nebraska), DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), and McConaughey (Dallas Buyer’s Club) also made the cut and it was Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Redford (All is Lost) left out. In my view, Bale has no chance of winning but the other four legitimately do. McConaughey is what you would currently call the soft frontrunner.
BEST ACTRESS
Todd’s Picks: 4/5
The Hustle love fest continued with Amy Adams’s nomination, which I didn’t predict. Her inclusion was not much of a surprise, but I would’ve figured Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) would have missed the cut with Adams in. Apparently never bet against Streep, however, as she’s in and Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks) was left out. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), and Judi Dench (Philomena) round out the category with Blanchett as the clear likely winner with Bullock standing an outside shot.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Todd’s Picks: 3/5
This has been one of the tougher categories to predict and my results reflect that. My selections of Daniel Bruhl in Rush and my upset pick of Will Forte in Nebraska didn’t pan out. I correctly called Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), and Jared Leto (Dallas Buyer’s Club) and it was Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) and Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) joining the race. Leto is the guy to beat though a really great night for Hustle could make Cooper a threat.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Todd’s Picks: 4/5
The story here, as it was with the Golden Globes, is Oprah Winfrey’s exclusion in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. I was on the money with expected nominees Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), and June Squibb (Nebraska). Sally Hawkins from Blue Jasmine, my runner-up for a nod, made the cut over Oprah. Lawrence and Nyong’o are the favorites here, with J-Law probably ahead.
Well that’s my analysis, folks! For the rest of the categories, I’ll just give you what was nominated and how I fared:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Todd’s Picks: 4/5
Nominees: American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyer’s Club, Her, Nebraska
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Todd’s Picks: 5/5 (!)
Nominees: Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Todd’s Picks: 4/5
Nominees: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest&Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Todd’s Picks: 3/5
Nominees: “Alone Yet Not Alone” from Alone Yet Not Alone, “Happy” from Despicable Me 2, “Let It Go” from Frozen, “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, “The Moon Song” from Her
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Todd’s Picks: 3/5
Nominees: The Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square, 20 Feet from Stardom
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Todd’s Picks: 4/5
Nominees: The Broken Circle Breakdown, The Great Beauty, The Hunt, The Missing Picture, Omar
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Todd’s Picks: 4/5
Nominees: The Book Thief, Gravity, Her, Philomena, Saving Mr. Banks
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Todd’s Picks: 2/5 (ouch!)
Nominees: The Grandmaster, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Prisoners
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Todd’s Picks: 3/5
Nominees: American Hustle, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, Her, 12 Years a Slave
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Todd’s Picks: 1/3
Nominees: Dallas Buyer’s Club, Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Todd’s Picks: 4/5
Nominees: American Hustle, The Grandmaster, The Great Gatsby, The Invisible Woman, 12 Years a Slave
BEST EDITING
Todd’s Picks: 4/5
Nominees: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyer’s Club, Gravity, 12 Years a Slave
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Todd’s Picks: 3/5
Nominees: Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness
BEST SOUND MIXING
Todd’s Picks: 4/5
Nominees: Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lone Survivor
BEST SOUND EDITING
Todd’s Picks: 3/5
Nominees: All is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor
Some final thoughts:
This was a very good day for American Hustle and director David O. Russell. For the second year in a row, a Russell film has seen acting nominations in all four major categories (last year: his Silver Linings Playbook).
Since her first nomination in 2005, Amy Adams has either been nominated for Actress or Supporting Actress five out of the last nine years. No wins yet.
For a while, it seemed as if Tom Hanks could be nominated twice this year for Actor (Captain Phillips) and Supporting Actor (Saving Mr. Banks). He received neither.
Speaking of Saving Mr. Banks, bad day for that picture. Many expected a Best Picture nomination and especially a Best Actress nod for Thompson. It managed only a nomination for Original Score.
It was a bad day for Lee Daniels’ The Butler with zero nominations.
It was a bad day for Ron Howard’s Rush as it received zero nods. Most, including me, had it at least being nominated in the sound categories.
And there it is, folks! The Oscar nominations are in and you can bet I’ll be writing more posts over the next month and a half before the ceremony predicting the winners. ‘Til next time!
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