Category: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Watch: Bleed for This

The Telluride Film Festival is happening this weekend and that means a slew of autumn Academy hopefuls are getting their first exposure. My Oscar Watch series continues with Ben Younger’s Bleed for This. This is the true life tale of boxer Vinny Paz (Miles Teller), who defied all odds to make it back to the ring after breaking his neck.

Movies focused on the sweet science have had a history with Oscar voters. 1976’s Rocky came out of nowhere to punch out all competitors. 2004’s Million Dollar Baby also won Picture, as did its director (Clint Eastwood), Actress (Hilary Swank), and Supporting Actor (Morgan Freeman). 1980’s Raging Bull and 2010’s The Fighter received multiple nods. Just last year, Sylvester Stallone was nominated once again as Mr. Balboa in Creed.

As for the film in question, Bleed for This has received mostly positive notices thus far. However, some have mentioned it borrows plenty of cliches (some from the aforementioned films). It doesn’t appear to be a genuine threat in Picture or Director. Mr. Teller missed out on a nod with 2014’s Whiplash as all attention went to his costar J.K. Simmons in Supporting. The lead actor race looks lighter than usual on paper this year, but he still could face an uphill battle for inclusion. Aaron Eckhart is said to give strong work as his trainer here and he may stand the best chance at recognition (though I’m not currently putting him in).

The Oscar Watch will roll on as further hopefuls are unveiled.

 

Oscar Watch: Moonlight

The Telluride Film Festival, as expected, has given us another serious contender in the Oscar race as Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight has just had its premiere. Based on a play, the drama centers on the story of Chiron, an African American gay male growing up in Florida.

The pic debuted to rave reviews and its chances at Academy attention extends to numerous races. My initial round of early predictions has it nabbing a Best Picture nod and today’s buzz solidified that pick. I currently have director Jenkins on the outside looking in, but he’s certainly in the mix (he’s likely to get a nom for his Adapted Screenplay).

As for performers, Trevante Rhodes is among three actors who play Chiron at various stages of his life and he should be campaigned for in Best Actor. He’s got a real shot, as does Mahershala Ali in Supporting Actor as a drug dealer who warms to Chiron. Naomie Harris looks to be a player in Supporting Actress as the lead character’s drug addicted mother and she probably has an edge over singer Janelle Monae as Ali’s girlfriend.

Another day. Another contender in this busy week for Oscar hopefuls.

Oscar Watch: Sully

The Telluride Film Festival gave audiences and critics their first look at Sully, which lands (safely) in theaters Friday. This is the first paring of legends Clint Eastwood (who directs) and Tom Hanks. He plays the real life title character of the pilot credited with the Miracle on the Hudson in 2009.

Early reviews have been solid across the board. It’s no surprise that a bulk of the acclaim has gone to Hanks, who’s said to give a typically great performance. I use that term for a reason as it now appears to be easy for Oscar voters to take him for granted. Exhibit A is 2013’s Captain Phillips, another heralded true life tale in which the Academy passed him over for Best Actor, even though I believe it to be among his finest work. If Hanks couldn’t get a nod for it, I’m skeptical he will here.

Sully stands a nice chance at connecting with moviegoers, but I don’t feel at this juncture that it’ll get much Oscar attention. This applies to Best Picture, Director, the supporting categories with costars Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney, and even its huge lead who hasn’t been nominated in 16 years.

 

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

We have reached day 6 of my earliest Oscar predictions and that means the big one – Best Picture!

This week, the Venice Film Festival has helped make the scene a little clearer in a couple of ways. For one, Damien Chazelle’s La La Land not only looks like an easy pick for a nomination, but it could potentially be a winner. Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals and Denis Villenueve’s Arrival are also in the mix. For now – I’m leaving Arrival out and Animals in (obviously this could certainly change over the next weeks and months).

There’s plenty that we haven’t seen that appear strong – Martin Scorsese’s Silence. Denzel Washington’s Fences. Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight.

And there are others that have already screened at other festivals that look like contenders: Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea. Jeff Nichols’ Loving. This list also includes Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation and whether or not news stories involving its director prevent it from being nominated is a legit question. For now, I’ve got it in.

A host of other possibilities abound that have yet to be screened and I’ll be keeping you up to date with numerous prediction posts over the fall. At this juncture, I have nine movies being nominated (there can be anywhere from 9-10).

They are:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST PICTURE

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

The Birth of a Nation

Fences

La La Land

Loving

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Nocturnal Animals

Silence

Other Possibilities:

The 13th

20th Century Women

Allied

American Pastoral

Arrival

Collateral Beauty

The Founder

The Girl on the Train

Gold

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

I, Daniel Blake

Jackie

LBJ

Live by Night

The Lobster

Lion

Miss Sloane

Passengers

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Rules Don’t Apply

Snowden

Sully

A United Kingdom

Oscar Watch: Nocturnal Animals

Another piece of the potential Oscar puzzle has come into focus with Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals, which screened at the Venice Film Festival. The thriller has garnered a number of very positive critical notices and looks to be a player come awards season.

The feature is the second directorial feature from famed clothing designer Ford, who drew positive reactions from his first effort – 2009’s A Single Man (which earned Colin Firth a Best Actor nomination). Animals boasts an impressive cast – Amy Adams, Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Shannon, Laura Linney, Armie Hammer, Isla Fisher, and Aaron Taylor-Johnson.

Based on early word, this looks to be a factor in Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay (tech categories such as Cinematography and Editing as well). As for the performers, it will be an interesting story to watch with Adams, as she’s likely to compete against herself with Arrival (which also screened at Venice). Gyllenhaal could be in the mix for Actor while Shannon has had a solid 2016 and could compete for Supporting Actor.

Another day. Another strong possibility for Oscar attention. Nocturnal Animals hits screens on November 18th.

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Day 5 of my early 2016 Oscar predictions continues with Best Director and this week has already helped solidify the standings of two: Damien Chazelle for La La Land (who looks like a shoo-in for a nod) and Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals (not guaranteed; but very good chance).

Then there’s Martin Scorsese for Silence. The legendary director has been nominated 8 times for this award, including for five of his last six pictures (winning for 2006’s The Departed). It’s a safe pick to put him in, but the only uncertainty is whether or not Silence is actually released this year.

Ang Lee has won the award twice (for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi) and his Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk looks poised for several nominations.

There are many other possibilities: Denzel Washington could land his first directorial attention for Fences. Jeff Nichols’ Loving has already been the subject of much acclaim. Both Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) and Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) could find themselves in the mix, as could Denis Villenueve (Arrival) and Morten Tyldum (Passengers) for their science fiction pics.

Also worth noting: Nate Parker for The Birth of a Nation. This is a tricky one as the movie has been a critical hit yet prevalent stories on his past have called into question whether the Academy will make that a factor. We shall see.

Here’s how I have the race right now:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Martin Scorsese, Silence

Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Garth Davis, Lion

Ana DuVernay, The 13th

Clint Eastwood, Sully

Gareth Edwards, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

David Frankel, Collateral Beauty

Stephen Gaghan, Gold

John Lee Hancock, The Founder

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Ken Loach, I, Daniel Blake

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

John Madden, Miss Sloane

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Jeff Nichols, Loving

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Rob Reiner, LBJ

Tate Taylor, The Girl on the Train

Morten Tyldum, Passengers

Denis Villenueve, Arrival

Ben Younger, Bleed for This

Robert Zemeckis, Allied

Best Picture tomorrow!

Oscar Watch: Arrival

Another potential Oscar contender has arrived at the Venice Film Festival in the form of, um, Arrival. The science fiction drama comes from director Denis Villeneuve, maker of acclaimed pics such as Prisoners and Sicario. It stars Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, and Forest Whitaker.

Unlike Venice’s premiere selection, La La Land (which debuted to explosive Oscar buzz), Arrival‘s prospects seem a little more murky. Some early reviews have been raves while others are a bit more mixed. Nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay seem uncertain at this juncture. The pic could certainly play in some of the technical categories, including Sound Mixing and Editing, Cinematography, and Editing.

The only performer who’s likely to hear her name called is five-time nominee Amy Adams. She’s yet to win. Yet there is bound to be serious competition as Best Actress looks as crowded as it’s been in recent memory. In fact, her biggest competition for recognition could be herself, as she also stars in this fall’s Nocturnal Animals from director Tom Ford.

The unveiling of Arrival across the pond puts it in the conversation for several races at the Academy Awards, but it’s far from assured.

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Day #4 of my first 2016 Oscar predictions brings us to Best Actor and in the past two years, even these incredibly early predictions yielded positive results. My 2014 late August/early September Actor predictions gave us four of the five nominees and in 2015 – three.

We start with Michael Keaton. He just missed out on a win in 2014 for Birdman and has had the distinction of appearing in the last two Best Picture winners (Birdman, Spotlight). It’s likely he’ll receive buzz for this December’s The Founder, in which he plays Ray Kroc – inventor of the McDonald’s franchise.

Denzel Washington both stars and directs in Fences, based on an acclaimed play. It’s been 15 years since he won for Training Day and it could be time to hear his name called again.

Casey Affleck has received raves for Manchester by the Sea. Same goes for Joel Edgerton in Jeff Nichols’ Loving. Readers of the previous posts in the Supporting races know that Moonlight looks to make some noise this season and that could extend to its star Trevante Rhodes.

Same goes for La La Land, which could mean a second nomination (ten years after Half Nelson) for Ryan Gosling. There’s Joe Alwyn in the title role of Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, the latest from double Oscar winner Ang Lee. Woody Harrelson plays the 36th President in LBJ. Double Oscar winner Tom Hanks is Sully. And so on and so on (I’ve even listed Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool as a possibility… even though it’s extremely unlikely).

This finally brings us to Nate Parker, director, writer, and star of The Birth of a Nation, which received raves on the festival circuit earlier this year. It is impossible to know right now how his recent publicity due to a years old rape charge (in which he acquitted)  and the suicide of the alleged victim plays out in the minds of voters. For now, I do not have him being nominated. Whether that’s because of the serious competition or other reasons is a factor that is sure to be discussed as the nominations draw closer.

Here’s how I have this initial round shaking out:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Michael Keaton, The Founder

Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

Colin Farrell, The Lobster

Andrew Garfield, Silence

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Tom Hanks, Sully

Woody Harrelson, LBJ

Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake

Joseph Gordon Levitt, Snowden

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

David Oyelowo, A United Kingdom

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Dev Patel, Lion

Brad Pitt, Allied

Chris Pratt, Passengers

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Michael Shannon, Midnight Special

Will Smith, Collateral Beauty

Miles Teller, Bleed for This

We’ll hit Best Director tomorrow and then Best Picture!

Oscar Watch: The Light Between Oceans

Derek Cianfrance’s The Light Between Oceans sure looked like an Oscar contender on paper, but things change quickly in the busy awards derby. Based on a bestselling novel and starring a trio of Oscar winners and nominees, the period piece romance opens Friday. Frankly, I thought it was a bit curious that reviews were embargoed until yesterday.

Now we may know why. Sitting at a so-so 56% on Rotten Tomatoes, many critics haven’t been kind to it. Cianfrance has experienced raves throughout his directorial career with 2010’s Blue Valentine and 2013’s The Place Beyond the Pines (neither received Academy attention, however).

Critics have been gentler with the performers, with Rachel Weisz especially being singled out. She remains a contender in Supporting Actress – albeit a long shot. Fassbender and Vikander appear to be out of the running, as do nods for Picture or Director. Its best chance at recognition probably goes to its composer, Alexandre Desplat. It would mark his ninth nomination.

While La La Land gave us a surefire autumn contender this week, The Light Between Oceans presented quite the opposite.

Oscar Watch: La La Land

Some pictures seem tailor made for Oscar attention and Damien Chazelle’s La La Land is one of them. This major piece of the 2016 Academy Awards puzzle was freshly unveiled at the Venice Film Festival, some three months before its December 2nd stateside bow. Based on the critical reaction, it appears we have our first legitimate gold statue contender.

La La Land is the director’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2014 pic Whiplash, which earned J.K. Simmons a Supporting Actor award and a Best Picture nomination. He missed out on his first directing nod two years ago. That could change here.

Let’s check some boxes on how La La Land will appeal to Academy voters. First, it’s about show business people. They love that. Two – it’s a throwback to the musicals of days past. They’ll adore that, too. Early reviews suggest an optimistic and vibrant movie that will contrast nicely with plenty of darker themed entries coming our way over the fall.

So let’s get this out of the way right now: it may be early, but La Land Land is going to be nominated for Best Picture. Mark it down. Chazelle stands an excellent shot at his first directorial recognition. As for the actors, our co-leads of Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone appear to be on different wavelengths. Stone looks like a lock for an Actress nomination, while Gosling’s inclusion into Actor is murkier. As for Supporting performers, it remains to be seen how things shake out in those races. John Legend has been mentioned as the best possibility in Supporting Actor (I included him in my earliest predictions posted yesterday). J.K. Simmons (in the same category) and Rosemarie DeWitt in Supporting Actress currently seem less likely.

Other nomination chances are abundant. An Original Screenplay nod for Chazelle is virtually assured. Production Design. Cinematography. Editing. Multiple entries in Original Song. Score. Sound categories. Costume Design.

Venice has proven one thing and that is that La La Land seems destined to have Oscar voters singing its praises into next year. Take note.