The AFI Film Festival shed some light this week on some Oscar hopefuls that I’ve written about on this here blog in the past few days. It gave Ava DuVernay’s MLK pic Selma some real heat in the Best Picture, Director, and Actor race while Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper gave itself a shot in the Picture race as well. The industry has also trained its collective eyes on Big Eyes, Tim Burton’s true life biographical drama/comedy. The result? Iffy at best.
Burton is used to dealing with gargantuan budgets, but Big Eyes is an exception. Reportedly it cost just $10 million to produce and it focuses on Margaret Keane (Amy Adams), whose paintings became a phenomenon in the 1950s yet all credit was taken by her husband Walter (Christoph Waltz).
Adams and Waltz are no strangers to acting nominations at the Oscars. Adams has been recognized five times in the past nine years but hasn’t won. On the flip side, Waltz has been nominated in the Supporting Actor race for Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained and took home the gold on both occasions.
For Waltz, some writers have said his performance is a bit over the top and he seems highly unlikely to get his third nod. Adams is the one who could sneak in, but she would appear to be behind Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Reese Witherspoon (Wild), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), and Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything). That would leave Adams with the fifth slot and there’s still Emily Blunt’s work in Into the Woods that has yet to be evaluated. Factor in other actresses who sneak into spot #5 and the chances of Adams getting her sixth nomination is very much a question mark.
The picture itself is receiving decent reviews but they aren’t overwhelmingly glowing. Big Eyes appears on the outside looking in for Best Picture and Director for Burton, who’s surprisingly yet to get Academy recognition.
Another picture that premiered during this week’s AFI Film Festival is garnering some Oscar chatter, though not to the extent of the MLK biopic Selma, which I wrote about yesterday.
That would be Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper, which tells the true life story of Chris Kile, who’s said to have over 300 kills in his military service. The central character is played by Bradley Cooper and he’s managed Oscar nominations the past two years (for Actor in 2012 with Silver Linings Playbook and Supporting Actor in 2013 with American Hustle).
For Cooper, pulling off the trifecta could be an uphill battle. He is receiving rave reviews for his work here, but the Best Actor race is incredibly crowded. Five performances – Michael Keaton (Birdman), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), David Oyelowo (Selma), Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), all seem likely for recognition. That leaves room for no one else. Still, if one of them were to be left out, Cooper is a wise substitute pick.
The only other actor in the film with any chance would be Sienna Miller, who plays Kile’s wife in the Supporting Actress race. She, too, may be on the outside looking in and it’s somewhat difficult to see her inclusion if Cooper isn’t recognized.
Some reviews out of AFI have been quite positive while others are more mixed. I don’t see Eastwood picking up a Director nod. Strangely enough, American Sniper could be a movie that is recognized only in the Best Picture category. That may depend a lot on its box office grosses, which could be substantial (Lone Survivor is a recent similar genre title that did very well).
For now, I’ll predict Sniper doesn’t make the cut – though that is certainly subject to change as the race takes shape over the next two months.
As of yesterday, a major force joined the Oscar race and it is Selma. I’m not referring to Cruel Intentions actress Selma Blair, but rather Ana DuVernay’s Martin Luther King Jr. biopic that screened at the AFI Film Festival last night. The picture focuses on the 1965 voting right marches in Alabama. Critics got their first look at it prior to its December 25th limited release and January 9th nationwide bow. Their verdict points to Selma as a highly likely nominee for Best Picture. Additionally, David Oyelowo (known to most as Forest Whitaker’s son in Lee Daniels’ The Butler) has drawn raves as MLK.
Oyelowo seems primed to join a Best Actor race that already appears to have four near lock nominees: Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game, Michael Keaton in Birdman, Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, and Steve Carell in Foxcatcher. With Oyelowo seemingly joining that group, the race for Best Actor nominees may well be over.
As for other performers in Selma, either Tim Roth (as George Wallace) or Tom Wilkinson (as Lyndon Johnson) could find themselves competing against one another in the Supporting Actor category. Their nominations are far less assured than Oyelowo’s, but that race still seems somewhat open compared to Actor.
Carmen Ejogo (as Coretta Scott King) may be facing an uphill battle in the Supporting Actress category, but it’s certainly a possibility.
Selma now seems likely to make some Oscar history as its director DuVernay would become the first African American woman to be nominated in that race. Based on the reaction that occurred at AFI, history is about to be made.
A very large and important piece of the Oscar puzzle came into focus today as Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar had its review embargo lifted. It opens next Friday (November 7), but the critics are having their say, which obviously impacts its standing in the Academy Awards races.
The verdict? Somewhat mixed. While some reviewers have been over the moon on it (forgive the pun), others are having issues with its screenplay. It’s the same issue that hindered Gravity‘s chances of a win last year. Currently it stands at a respectable though unspectacular 69% on Rotten Tomatoes (though that number is bound to change as more notices roll in).
The acting has been pretty much praised up and down beginning with Matthew McConaughey’s lead role. However, it’s unlikely he’ll figure into the Best Actor race due to how crowded it is and the fact that he won just last year. Of all the performers, Jessica Chastain probably stands the best chance at a Supporting Actor nod, though that’s far from certain and even she is likely on the outside looking in.
It will certainly be a major factor in the technical categories, from Cinematography to Editing to the two Sound categories to Visual Effects. Hans Zimmer may also be recognized for his Original Score.
As for Screenplay, that remains a big question mark considering it seems to be what some critics are leveling their complaints about.
I still believe Nolan stands a good shot at a Directing nomination considering the lauded visual scope of the picture. And with the possibility of up to ten movies being nominated, Interstellar still should make the cut. Yet one nearly assured declarative statement can be made today that we didn’t know yesterday: Interstellar is extremely unlikely to win Best Picture.
This evening on the blog, we arrive at round two of my Oscar Predictions for the 2014 race, which will air in early 2015 with Neil Patrick Harris handling hosting duties. In late August, I made my initial round of predictions and two months later, much has changed and much has stayed the same. Unlike my first round, my second go round will include the races of Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay.
Let’s get to it, shall we? Here’s where I see the Oscar race right now in the eight major categories:
Best Adapted Screenplay
For my first crack at the Adapted Screenplay race, it’s probably safe to assume Gillian Flynn’s adaptation of her own bestseller Gone Girl will make the cut, as well as festival favorites The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything. I’m also safely (at the moment) including Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, even though no one has seen it yet. The fifth slot includes several contenders: Still Alice, Inherent Vice, Wild, Into the Woods, and American Sniper. No one has viewed Sniper yet, but its recently released trailer inspires hope.
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Best Original Screenplay
Richard Linklater’s Boyhood and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman appear to be shoo-ins for inclusion. I’m also thinking Wes Anderson’s work for The Grand Budapest Hotel stands it best chance at a nod here. For the remaining two slots – I’m saying Foxcatcher and Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, for now. Other contenders include Mr. Turner, Top Five, Whiplash, A Most Violent Year, Selma, and Big Eyes.
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Best Supporting Actress
This race has changed quite a bit since my first round of predictions. I originally had both Emily Blunt for Into the Woods and Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything listed here, but it’s since been announced their performances will fall into the Best Actress race. They’re out – along with Carmen Ejogo as Coretta Scott King in Selma. The only two actresses from my initial predictions are Patricia Arquette in Boyhood (who’s a front runner) and Laura Dern in Wild. Added to the mix are Emma Stone in Birdman and Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game. Other possibilities for the fifth slot include Meryl Streep in Into the Woods, Jessica Chastain in Interstellar, Carrie Coon for Gone Girl, Sienna Miller in American Sniper, Julianne Moore in A Map to the Stars, Anna Kendrick in Into the Woods, Katherine Waterson in Inherent Vice, and Jessica Lange in The Gambler. I’ll go with Kristen Stewart as a surprise nominee for the acclaimed Still Alice.
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Emma Stone, Birdman
Best Supporting Actor
My first predictions didn’t include J.K. Simmons for his lauded work in Whiplash, but he could be considered the favorite at this juncture. Staying in are Edward Norton in Birdman and Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher and it’s tough to imagine them not being recognized. For the other two slots, I’m including Miyavi for his villainous role in Unbroken and Ethan Hawke for Boyhood. Left out from my first round: Domhall Gleeson (Unbroken), Logan Lerman (Fury), and Tim Roth (Selma). Other contenders: John Goodman for The Gambler, Tom Wilkinson for Selma, Albert Brooks for A Most Violent Year, Christoph Waltz for Big Eyes, Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice, Robert Duvall in The Judge, and Johnny Depp for Into the Woods.
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Miyavi, Unbroken
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Actress
Following my August estimates, the festival circuit anointed Julianne Moore as a likely front runner for playing an Alzheimer’s patient in Still Alice. I’m also sticking with initial predictions Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), and Reese Witherspoon (Wild). Since the announcement of her inclusion in this race and not Supporting Actress, Felicity Jones joins the fray for The Theory of Everything. Other possibilities: Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year (who made the cut in August), Emily Blunt for Into the Woods, Shailene Woodley in The Fault in Our Stars, and Hilary Swank for The Homesman.
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Actor
Just like last year, what a crowded field we have! The following quartet seem virtual locks for nominations: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Michael Keaton (Birdman), and Steve Carell (Foxcatcher). The fifth slot is the real mystery. I originally had Joaquin Phoenix here for Inherent Vice, but I’m skeptical now. For now, I’ll replace him with Jack O’Connell in Unbroken. Other possibilities include Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner (who could easily find a way in), Bradley Cooper in American Sniper (same), Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel, Ben Affleck in Gone Girl, Bill Murray for St. Vincent, David Oyelowo in Selma (depends on film’s success and critical reception), Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year, Matthew McConaughey for Interstellar (fact that he won last year hurts), Jake Gyllenhall for Nightcrawler (pic is probably too quirky and small), and Channing Tatum for Foxcatcher (Carell likely to steal his thunder).
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ACTOR:
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Jack O’Connell, Unbroken
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Director
Only one change here as I’m taking Bennett Miller’s direction for Foxcatcher out and putting David Fincher’s work in Gone Girl in. I think the commercial and critical success of it and Fincher’s reputation as one of Hollywood’s best filmmakers gets him in (at press time). Those who could spoil my predictions: Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), Ana DuVernay (Selma), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), and Rob Marshall (Into the Woods).
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Christopher Nolan, Interstellar
Best Picture
As you may know, anywhere from 5-10 films can be nominated in the biggest category of them all. Since that system has been in place, nine pictures have been recognized every time. In August’s predictions, I predicted eight. And now – I’m going with nine. The MLK biopic Selma is the one I’ve removed. Don’t get me wrong – it could still easily make the cut, but no one’s seen it yet and it’s a question mark. Gone Girl and American Sniper enter the race in my opinion and this marks their first inclusion. Other films that could potentially make the cut (even though I say no at the moment): Mr. Turner, Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, and Into the Woods.
There was never a question as to whether David Fincher’s adaptation of the massive bestselling Gillian Flynn novel Gone Girl would generate tons of publicity. However, it’s definitely been more of an open question whether the film would generate Oscar buzz. That question appears to have been answered as the first reviews have been released ahead of its October 3rd debut.
And Gone Girl looks like a contender. Both Variety and Entertainment Weekly have given it rave reviews. Most importantly, it’s been noted that lovers of the novel (and there are many) will dig this adaptation. That means the picture is likely to be a huge box office performer and that certainly won’t hurt its awards talk.
Director Fincher is one of the finest filmmakers working today. His resume boasts Seven, The Game, Fight Club, Panic Room, Zodiac, and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Yet only two of his efforts have received Best Picture nominations – 2008’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and 2010’s The Social Network. His latest could be his third and nab him his personal third Directing nod.
As for the actors, I’ve maintained for some time that Rosamund Pike is poised to receive a Best Actress nomination as Amy Dunne and it would be surprising at this juncture if she doesn’t. As for Ben Affleck in the Best Actor race, that’s a little more tricky due to it being an incredibly competitive category. Right now, there appears to be four “shoo-ins” for Best Actor recognition: Steve Carell in Foxcatcher, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game, Michael Keaton in Birdman, and Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything. That leaves just one slot open and there are plenty of other names that could fill it. I would say Affleck is currently a long shot, even though critics are lauding his work.
In my initial round of Oscar predictions a couple of weeks ago, I included Pike but left off the movie and its director in their categories. That may very well change when round #2 is posted in a couple of weeks.
From the Venice to Telluride to Cannes to Toronto Film Festivals – we’ve seen a great number of Oscar hopefuls screen already that could easily be contenders at the end of the year. I’ve written about many of them – Foxcatcher. Boyhood. The Imitation Game. Birdman. This evening, I add James Marsh’s The Theory of Everything to the growing list.
This true story is based on Jane Hawking’s book. She is the now ex-wife of noted physicist Stephen Hawking and the film tells the tale of their romance and marriage. The couple is played by Eddie Redmayne (from Les Miserables) and Felicity Jones. Both performers are receiving considerable Oscar buzz for their roles.
Redmayne enters an already highly competitive and crowded field for Best Actor. Already – Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), and Michael Keaton (Birdman) appear shoo-ins for nominations. Based on reviews and festival reaction, so does Mr. Redmayne. The problem is there’s only five nominees and other contenders haven’t even been screened yet. Nevertheless, pencil his work in for a nod.
It isn’t totally clear whether Jones will be touted by the studio in the Actress or Supporting Actress category. The latter seems more probable. Either way- count on her being nominated.
Audience reaction at the Toronto Film Festival indicates it’s a crowd pleaser and, as of now, a Best Picture nomination seems more likely than not. It’s a bit tougher to gage whether Marsh will be recognized and we’ll have to see how the Director race plays out over time.
As always, I’ll be updating Academy Award possibilities as they come!
The Toronto Film Festival kicked off two days ago and you can expect the Oscar picture will become a bit clearer once some of the heavyweights are screened over the next few days.
One such picture is St. Vincent, which debuted last night as part of Bill Murray Day at the festival. For movie lovers, though, isn’t everyday Bill Murray Day??
Reaction to the pic has been quite positive, though its reviews suggest it could have an uphill battle to be recognized in the Best Picture race. On the other hand, Mr. Murray could be in position to receive his second Best Actor nomination, eleven years after his first for Lost in Translation. There’s already stiff competition – as Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Michael Keaton (Birdman), and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) also seem to be likely nominees with several other actors films having not yet screened.
Still, Murray is a living legend and if St. Vincent connects with audiences, he could certainly be in the running. St. Vincent opens domestically on October 24.
We’ve reached the last day for my first round of Oscar predictions and that means we’ve arrived at the biggest category of them all – Best Picture! If you missed my other five posts covering Director and all four acting races, you can find them here:
Since 2011, the Best Picture race is the only category where there can be more than five nominees and it can range anywhere between 5-10. In each of the three years since the system was put in place, there have been nine nominated films. I’m going against the trend (call it a gut feeling, subject change) and predicting the magic number will be eight in 2014. And with that, my first predictions for Best Picture, with other possible nominees listed after:
On Day 5 of my first round of 2014 Oscar Predictions, we arrive at Best Director and tomorrow – we’ll get to the big daddy, Best Picture! If you missed my four posts covering the acting races, you can find them here:
As with the others, I’ll list my five current predicted nominees with other possibilities listed below. FYI – my initial round of Director predictions last year yielded 3 of the 5 eventual nominees. Here we go:
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