Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire is out in limited release today before its Thursday bow on Netflix. Zack Snyder directs the space epic with a cast including Sofia Boutella, Charlie Hunnam, Michiel Huisman, Djimon Hounsou, Doona Bae, Ray Fisher, Cleopatra Coleman, Jena Malone, Fra Fee, Ed Skrein, and Anthony Hopkins.
With part two hitting theaters and the streamer in April of 2024, there is more than one writer saying this is Snyder’s attempt at making Star Wars. However, most reviews claim he doesn’t succeed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is only 26%.
One area getting some critical praise are the production values, specifically the visual effects. Rebel is reportedly on the shortlist on 20 possibilities for VE at the Oscars. In my last round of predictions, I had it in the final quintet in fifth. Yet the poor reaction thus far makes me question whether it makes it all the way. I’m more skeptical now than I was yesterday though VE is one race where solid reviews isn’t necessarily a prerequisite. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Iron Claw is in theaters on December 22nd as it tells the true life tale of the Von Erich family of wrestlers. Recounting their triumphs and many tragedies, Sean Durkin writes and directs a cast including Zac Efron, Jeremy Allen White, Harris Dickinson, Maura Tierney, Holt McCallany, and Lily James.
The A24 release’s review embargo lifted today and the Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at an impressive 93%. Frankly, I’m surprised the sports biopic chose to forego screenings at festivals like Toronto and Telluride. That could’ve built awards buzz for the picture itself, as well as Efron and White.
I wonder now it it’s too late in the season for Claw to reach voters. While it did make the cut in the National Board of Review’s 10 best, it was nowhere to be seen with AFI or at the Golden Globe nominations. If Claw can manage to squeeze into the SAG nods next month (for Best Ensemble or with Efron or White individually), that could help visibility with the Academy. Right now I think the likeliest scenario is it comes up empty-handed on Oscar nom morning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Since 2009, every Best Film winner from the LA Film Critics Association has nabbed a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars with the exception of 2020’s Small Axe (which wasn’t eligible for Academy consideration). Five, including last year’s Everything Everything All at Once, went on to win. And this is why today’s announcement that Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is the recipient of the big prize feels important. Zone is looked at as a coin toss for making the BP cut and victories like today help (I currently have it ranked 8th in the standings). The Holocaust drama also took Director and Music/Score and I have it receiving Oscar noms in both of those derbies as well.
The L.A. branch doesn’t differentiate between genders in their acting races and they name two winners in both lead and supporting. Sandra Hüller took a lead trophy for both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest alongside Emma Stone for Poor Things. Both are expected to make plays in Best Actress at the Oscars (Hüller for Anatomy).
In Supporting, Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) were the selections. The latter is widely expected to be among the Supporting Actress quintet of hopefuls. The former seems to be rising and I placed her in fifth earlier today in my latest round of predictions.
All of Us Strangers is your SoCal Screenplay winner. It hopes to make the list in Original Screenplay at the Oscars, but competition is fierce.
Other prizes:
Cinematography: Poor Things
Editing: Anatomy of a Fall
Production Design: Barbie
Film Not in the English Language: Anatomy of a Fall
Documentary/Non-Fiction Film: Menus-Plaisirs: Les Troigros
Animation: The Boy and the Heron
Keep an eye on the blog for major precursor news as we move closer to Oscar nomination morning!
My first Oscar predictions for the month of December comes on the eve of Golden Globe nominations and days after NBR and AFI revealed their best of for 2023.
There is a change in BP as American Fiction is back in with Anatomy of a Fall out. In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) reaches the #1 spot. She overtakes Emma Stone in Poor Things who has held the position for several weeks. Gladstone’s rise happens as her costars Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro slip a little in their categories. Also in Best Actress, Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to the quintet at the expense of Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple. In Actor, Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) is in over Colman Domingo (Rustin).
Another development worthy of discussion is Visual Effects. Earlier this week, the top 20 hopefuls were announced and Oppenheimer was nowhere to be found. I’d previously had it ranked #1 in the race, but it drops from contention.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. American Fiction (PR: 11) (+2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)
12. May December (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. Air (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All of Us Strangers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-3)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Air
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4 (E)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Colman Domingo, The Color Purple
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rustin
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-1)
7. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 10) (+3)
8. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tótem (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feautre
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elemental (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-5)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-3)
7. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Joan Still” from Theater Camp
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ferrari (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Godzilla Minus One (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Oppenheimer
Society of the Snow
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Past Lives
2 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret,Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Nimona, Nyad, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish
The American Film Institute (AFI) revealed their ten best list of 2023 just a day after the NBR did the same (they picked a winner Killers of the Flower Moon and nine others). In the past five years, the AFI and Oscar BP match varies. It’s never been less than 5 (as it was in 2018). It topped out at 8 in 2021 while there were 7 in 2019 and 2022 and 6 in 2020.
Your 10 AFI pictures are American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, May December, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Please note that this is the American Film Institute. Therefore foreign entries aren’t eligible. So you won’t see viable BP hopefuls Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest on this list.
Let’s start with movies that made both AFI and NBR. They are Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Those seven titles are mostly looking in solid shape for Oscar inclusion. I can’t imagine more than one of them missing the cut. Past Lives is probably the most vulnerable although its prospects have certainly improved with the precursor love.
Warner Bros should be concerned that The Color Purple missed both cuts. It’s by no means out of the Academy’s BP derby, but it’s looking more shaky than ever. Other notables misses at AFI are Air and Origin. Both of them also missed NBR and appear to be on the outside looking in. The Iron Claw did make NBR in a surprise. A mention here could have really helped, but it didn’t materialize.
On the other hand, AFI’s announcement gives exposure to on the bubble entries like American Fiction, Spider-Man, and especially May December. It seems to be making an impressive late push beyond just its actors and screenplay.
Keep an eye on the blog for all precursor activity as we get closer and closer to Oscar nominations!
Just as the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) honored Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon as their best of 2023, the National Board of Review followed suit today. Like the Big Apple’s group, it’s not one of the more predictive precursors for Oscar glory. However, there are plenty of nominees solidifying themselves for at least making the cut with each victory.
That logic definitely applies to Killers, which took Best Film, Director, and Actress (Lily Gladstone). It’s pretty much of a lock for inclusion in the Academy’s Best Picture 10. Yet a win is far from guaranteed. I currently have it behind Oppenheimer. The last NBR Film recipient that took BP at the Oscars is 2018’s Green Book. Before that it was 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire.
The other big winner at NBR is The Holdovers. It’s the pick for Actor (Paul Giamatti), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), and Original Screenplay. I’m really beginning to think Randolph is a serious threat to be the gold statue Supporting Actress selection (even though I’ve had her ranked second behind Danielle Brooks from The Color Purple).
Mark Ruffalo is your Supporting Actor for Poor Things while Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse took the Animated prize, Anatomy of a Fall (ineligible for International Feature Film at the Oscars) is the International Film here, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie won Documentary.
It’s actually rare that all four acting recipients from NBR make the Oscar quintet in their respective races. I will say that Gladstone, Giamatti, Randolph, and Ruffalo all stand excellent chances.
Lastly, this Board selects other Top Films beyond their #1. This year the others are (alphabetically) Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, Ferrari, The Holdovers, The Iron Claw, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. There’s recently been about a 6-7 match correlation with Oscar. Killers is almost certainly in. The same can be said (with some of these more certain that others) for Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Heron and Ferrari are, at best, long shots. The Iron Claw is worth keeping an eye on for a late push.
And please continue to keep an eye on the blog for all speculation as Oscar nominations approach!
Wonka hopes to score some sweet box office business when it debuts December 15th, but could awards voters take notice? Telling the origin story of Roald Dahl’s iconic chocolatier, Timothee Chalamet steps into the title role previously played by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2005. Paul King, best known for making Paddington and its sequel, directs. The supporting cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Baynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant as an Oompa-Loompa.
The review embargo is lifted and early results are solid with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is worth noting that it’s under both Gene Wilder’s classic (91%) and the 2005 remake (83%).
Wonka‘s best shot at Academy attention is in tech races (though don’t be surprised if Chalamet nabs a Golden Globe nod for Actor in a Musical/Comedy). It could score a Costume Design nomination like Charlie did 18 years ago. The best shot might lie in its Production Design though competition is fierce with contenders like Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, Asteroid City, and Napoleon. There simply might not be enough room.
One last possibility is Original Song, particularly “A World Of Your Own” crooned by Chalamet. I haven’t had it my top ten in previous predictions, but it might show up there in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The New York Film Critics Circle revealed their best of selections for the year as precursors will be coming fast and furious in the days ahead. Critics from the Big Apple doled out two awards each for Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, and Todd Haynes’s May December.
It was Killers that took Best Film while Nolan was your Best Director (Oppenheimer also won Cinematography). Those titles (with Oppenheimer first and Killers second) have been 1-2 in my BP predictions for weeks. Eight of the last ten NYFCC Best Film winners ended up on the Oscar BP list and you can expect that trend to continue here.
In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Flower Moon) was the pick as she should make the Academy’s quintet in a competitive field. As for Best Actor, New York made a surprise selection in Franz Rogowski for Passages. While the picture drew acclaim as did the performance, he is not expected to be a factor in the Oscar derby. If more critics prizes come, who knows? But it’s doubtful.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, widely expected to be a factor in Supporting Actress, was successful here for her work in The Holdovers. In Supporting Actor, Charles Melton is now 2 for 2 with Gotham and NYFCC trophies. His inclusion at the Oscars is looking more and more solidified. The Supporting Actor race recipient here has made the Academy’s quintet nine out of the last ten years (more than any other major competition).
A week after taking Best Feature at Gotham, Celine Song’s Past Lives was named Best First Film as its slot in the Oscar BP lineup is looking fairly safe.
May December, in addition to Melton, took Best Screenplay (I have it currently in fifth for Original Screenplay).
In what could be a seesaw battle for critics prizes, The Boy and the Heron was the Animated Film victor over Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Anatomy of a Fall, despite not being France’s selection for International Feature Film at the Oscars, is New York’s winner. I have it nabbing a BP spot at the moment, but it’s a question mark.
For Non-Fiction Film, this branch went with the four-hour culinary doc Menus-Plaisirs-Les Troisgros. It has not been on my radar screen for Academy attention.
As for contenders that received no love, NY didn’t give any hardware to Poor Things, Maestro, or The Zone of Interest.
Keep an eye on this blog for all the Oscar precursor activity!
As November comes to a close, my updated Oscar predictions reflect one change in Best Picture as Anatomy of a Fall is back in with American Fiction out. Truth be told, I keep going back and forth on which film misses between Fall, Fiction, and The Zone of Interest at press time.
We also have a revolving door in the five spot in Supporting Actress and, for the first time, I’m going with a surprise pick in Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
The rest of the major races stay intact though I now have Oppenheimer leading in noms overall over Poor Things (which I had ahead in mid November). In fact, Poor Things now ranks third in the tally behind Killers of the Flower Moon.
You can read all the movement below as we approach December with all kinds of precursor indications coming our way!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Fair Play
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tótem (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Monk and the Gun
The Peasants
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Every Body (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Deepest Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-5)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carmen
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Ferrari (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Killer (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (E)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
11 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish
The 33rd Annual Gotham Awards were held this evening and it was looking like a potential night of missed opportunities for Celine Song’s Past Lives… until the end. Of the five nominees for Best Feature, the acclaimed A24 romantic drama was really the only one with legit Best Picture aspirations at the Oscars. It did take the top prize over Passages, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One.
This was following its director Song surprisingly not being awarded Breakthrough Director. That instead went to A.V. Rockwell for A Thousand and One and made the announcement for the big race a bit suspenseful.
Of the 20 pictures that have taken Best Feature at the Oscars (this category has existed since 2004 and there was a tie one year), 12 have become Academy hopefuls for BP. Half of those (The Hurt Locker, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All at Once) won. As a reminder, until this year, contenders for the Gothams were typically lower budgeted titles. Even with the budgetary restrictions removed, some heavy hitters like Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon opted not to compete at this ceremony.
As far as Past Lives is concerned, the perception of it losing could’ve hindered its Oscar chances. So it helped itself tonight by doing what it was expected to do. That said, it missed another possible victory with Greta Lee coming up short in Outstanding Lead Performance. Lily Gladstone took the trophy… not for the non-contending Killers of the Flower Moon, but for The Unknown Country. Gladstone seems on her way to a Best Actress slot for Moon. This is another unexpected win for an awards body that frequently provides them.
Outstanding Supporting Performance went to Charles Melton in May December and he might’ve upped his Oscar stock more than anyone. This race saw potential victors like Ryan Gosling (Barbie) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) end up behind him. **Note that the Gothams recently switched to ten nominees in lead and supporting without a divide for gender**. I’ve had Melton in my projected quintet recently and am feeling more and more confident about that. While Melton is a long shot to win at the big show, it should be noted that the previous two recipients (Troy Kotsur in CODA and Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere) took the Supporting Actor Oscar.
Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall received the Screenplay and International Feature awards. France did not select it as their pick for International Feature Film at the Academy Awards (where it probably would’ve been locked in a fierce competition with The Zone of Interest). Fall is a coin toss for BP inclusion so every little bit helps.
Finally, Four Daughters is your Documentary Feature pick (over 20 Days in Mariupol) as it increases it exposure.
Keep an eye on the blog for an Oscar predictions update in the coming days!
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