Category: Oscar Predictions

So, here we go! On Thursday, the Oscar nominations will be released. I’ve been blogging often with my predictions.

Starting this evening, I am dividing my FINAL predictions into four posts: Best Supporting Actor/Actress tonight, Best Actor/Actress on Monday, Best Director on Tuesday, and Best Picture on Wednesday. On Thursday, you’ll have my complete analysis of the nominations and some early hints on what and whom I believe will win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

My picks in this category haven’t really changed much over the last couple of months. I have a nagging suspicion there will be a surprise nominee… none of the five I’m picking would be considered surprises. Those surprises could include Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained. I can’t help but think of 2006 when prognosticators assumed Jack Nicholson would get a supporting nod for The Departed, but it ended up being Mark Wahlberg nominated for the film. The smart money is on Leo DiCaprio getting nominated and my predictions reflect that. But, don’t be too surprised if Waltz gets the nod instead. There’s even an outside shot Samuel L. Jackson could get the nod for Django as well… he’s seemed to gain a little steam over the last couple of weeks. Another nominee that would be considered fairly surprising is Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike. He’s had a great 2012, with acclaimed roles in Mike and the comedy Bernie. And there’s the chance that Javier Bardem, with his terrific turn as the bad guy in Skyfall, could be recognized. All that being said, I can’t bring myself to pick any of them and I’m playing it safe with the same five actors I’ve had for quite a few weeks.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

These picks also reflect the same five actresses as my last predictions. Again, I’m supremely not confident about my picks. I think Anne Hathaway and Sally Field are shoo-ins. They’ve been so for months. The rest of the field is unpredictable. When the Golden Globe and SAG nominations came out, everyone was shocked to Nicole Kidman nominated for the critically panned and little-seen drama The Paperboy. Many now believe that recognition will translate into an Oscar nod. I wouldn’t be surprised, but still can’t predict her. Other “surprises” that wouldn’t shock me include Judi Dench in Skyfall and Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook. Up until my last round of predictions, I had Amy Adams in The Master listed, but dropped her in favor of a somewhat surprise pick, Ann Dowd in the indie thriller Compliance. I’m sticking with it.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ann Dowd, Compliance

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Tomorrow, check in for my final picks for Best Actor and Actress!

Oscar nominations will be out in exactly two weeks – Thursday, January 10th. The latest round of my Oscar predictions for the six major categories represents bad news for The Master and good news for Django Unchained and various actors and actresses. I’ll break them down by category:

BEST PICTURE

Just ten days ago, I made my latest round of predictions. In them, I predicted nine films would be nominated (it can be anywhere from five to ten). Now I’m predicting eight. Not only that, for the first time, I’m including Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained. That means two films get left off. Those are Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master and the indie film Beasts of the Southern Wild. I’ve had them both getting nominated for two months, so this is a pretty major shift. Of the eight films predicted, I’m least confident in the French drama Amour and Django receiving nominations. They’re in for now though.

PREDICTIONS

Amour

Argo

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

BEST DIRECTOR

My picks for the five Director nominees has stayed remarkably consistent. There are no changes from ten days ago and even further back than that. There is certainly a chance that Michael Haneke for Amour, David O. Russell for Silver Linings, or even Quentin for Django could sneak in. However, my top five remain…

PREDICTIONS

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

BEST ACTOR

Here’s the major change: ten days ago, I explained that the Best Actor race was between six actors, but only five get in. My actor on the outside looking in was Hugh Jackman for Les Mis. I now believe the success of the picture will propel Jackman to a nomination. Daniel Day-Lewis is in, no question. So that leaves John Hawkes, Denzel Washington, Joaquin Phoenix, and Bradley Cooper fighting for three spots left. This is a tough one and may continue to change over the next two weeks. Many feel Phoenix in The Master will be the one left out (something that seemed inconceivable not long ago). I’m still not ready to count him out for a nomination, so for now it’s Cooper on the outside looking in.

PREDICTIONS

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST ACTRESS

This still appears to be a two-actor race between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. I’m making one change for the rest of the nominees. I’m putting Naomi Watts’ performace in The Impossible back in, leaving out young actress Quevenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild. My rationale is simple: Watts is more well-known and since I’m predicting Beasts will be left out of Best Picture for the first time, I believe that could translate to Wallis missing out.

PREDICTIONS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Like the Directing category, this is the other one where I have no changes from ten days ago. I have a lingering suspicion we could see a surprise nominee, like Matthew McConaughey in Magic Mike or Javier Bardem in Skyfall. I just don’t know which actors I’ve predicted would get left off. So my five remain…

PREDICTIONS

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

One change here because I feel that this category, more than almost any, has the real chance of a fairly surprising nominee. Due to that, for the first time, I’m taking Amy Adams performance in The Master out and replacing her with Ann Dowd with for the indie film Compliance. 

PREDICTIONS

Ann Dowd, Compliance

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

So there we have it – my predictions with two weeks left to go. Expect another one late next week and a final one on Wednesday, Jan. 9 – the day before.

Since the last time I blogged Oscar predictions, a number of very significant events have taken place: the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations are out. Most critics groups have bestowed their awards. Many prominent individual critics have started releasing their “Best Of” lists of the year.

The Oscar race has taken shape. We won’t know until next month what will be nominated, but it certainly felt like time to update my predictions for what will be nominated. Here goes in the six major categories. What I will do in this post is break down my predictions by “Locks”, “Strong Possibility”, “Possible”, and “Dark Horse” and indicate my predicted nominees in bold. I will give a number for each to indicate how strongly I feel its nomination is (1 being the highest and so forth). This does not necessarily indicate what I think will win (I could rank something #1 on nomination chances and not believe it ultimately will take home the golden guy). I will likely make just one more round of nomination predictions (maybe two) and then we will see a blog post in the future after nominations are out on what I think will win. Here we go:

Best Picture

Locks

1. Lincoln

2. Argo

3. Zero Dark Thirty

4. Les Miserables

Strong Possibility

5. Silver Linings Playbook

6. Life of Pi

7. Amour

Possible

8. The Master

9. Beasts of the Southern Wild

10. Django Unchained

11. Moonrise Kingdom

12. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Dark Horse

13. Flight

14. The Impossible

15. Skyfall

Breakdown: At this point, I believe the chances of eight to ten nominees is much more likely than not. I have The Master and Beasts of the Southern Wild hanging by a thread. The French film Amour seems to have just enough traction to be in, though that too is tentative. The real threat to get in is Django Unchained, which is being called one of Tarantino’s best. It was only three years ago that Inglourious Basterds was nominated. I’m still not quite ready to predict it gets a nomination, but I’m awfully close. Moonrise Kingdom and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel have real shots too. For the moment, the nine in bold make the cut.

Best Director

Locks

1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

2. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

3. Ben Affleck, Argo

Strong Possibilities

4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi

5. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

6. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

7. Michael Haneke, Amour

Possible

8. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Dark Horse

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

10. Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom

11. Benh Zietlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Breakdown: If my estimation, we have eight directors fighting it out for five slots. Spielberg, Bigelow, and Affleck are in. Then it gets tricky. I have a hard time not seeing Ang Lee nominated for Life of Pi, which is being praised mostly for its amazing direction. Also, Les Miserables is a BIG film and I think Hooper will get recognized for it. Still, Russell, Haneke, and Tarantino are real possibilities. For now though, I think they’re on the outside looking in.

Best Actor

Locks

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Strong Possibilities

2. John Hawkes, The Sessions

3. Denzel Washington, Flight

4. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

6. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Possible

7. Richard Gere, Arbitrage

8. Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

Dark Horse

9. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock

Breakdown: Everyone knows Day-Lewis is getting nominated. However, he is the only one I feel comfortable calling a lock. Why? Because this genuinely looks like a VERY strong six man race and only five can be nominated. I have gone back and forth on who gets left out and right now it’s Hugh Jackman without the musical chair. Everyone else (Hawkes, Washington, Cooper, Phoenix) are also vulnerable to find themselves standing. For this category, I will give an early spoiler alert: that #1 slot could very well translate in who I pick to win eventually.

Best Actress

Locks

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Strong Possibilities

3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

5. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

6. Naomi Watts, The Impossible

7. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

8. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Breakdown: This race looks like it’s coming down to Lawrence and Chastain competing for the gold. And I think 85 year old French actress Riva has gotten enough kudos that she’s in. After that, the last two slots are a real battle for actresses listed 4-8, but today I give the edge to Cotillard and Wallis.

Best Supporting Actor

Locks

1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Strong Possibilities

3. Alan Arkin, Argo

4. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

6. Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables

Possible

7. Javier Bardem, Skyfall

8. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

9. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

10. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Dark Horse

11. John Goodman, Argo or Flight

12. Ewan McGregor, The Impossible

13. Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained

Breakdown: This is a bigger list because I think there’s a legitimate chance we see a surprise nominee, like Bardem or McConaughey or Henry. For now, these predictions are the same they were a month ago though.

Best Supporting Actress

Locks

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Strong Possibilities

2. Sally Field, Lincoln

3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions

4. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Possible

5. Amy Adams, The Master

6. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

7. Ann Dowd, Compliance

7. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables

8. Kelly Reilly, Flight

9. Judi Dench, Skyfall

10. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Breakdown: Hathaway is definitely the front runner, but I believe real upset possibilities exist with Field or Smith or maybe Hunt. The fifth slot is tricky. I’m predicting Adams gets in, but Kidman has gained major momentum when her role in the critically panned and little seen film The Paperboy got SAG and Globe nominations and Barks and Dowd are certainly possible.

So there you have it, my blog reading friends! My current predictions. I’ll be back for another round soon enough.

It’s been less than two weeks since I updated my predictions for the six major Oscar categories. Two events over the Thanksgiving holiday have solidified the standings of some and lessened the award possibilities for others: the first screenings of Tom Hooper’s Les Miserables and Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty.

Both films, especially Les Miserables, confirmed their standings as Best Picture contenders. I never really doubted it for Miserables, which I predicted for a nomination in my initial October 16th post. The Bin Laden manhunt thriller Zero Dark Thirty has yet to make my Best Picture list in both of my posts. That has now changed.

Looking over my initial Best Picture predictions, I categorized them in four ways: Shoo-Ins, Strong Possibilities, Possible, and Long Shots. In this post, I will revisit the four categories. And as The Joker says, “Here we go!”:

Best Picture

Shoo-Ins

In October, I listed Argo and Lincoln. Still holds true. Today though, I am comfortable in adding two more shoo-ins: Les Miserables and Ang Lee’s Life of Pi. Both of those films were listed as strong possibilities in my first post. No longer – they’re in.

Strong Possibilities

How quickly things can change! In October, I wrote that Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master was as close to a shoo-in without calling it that. This no longer holds true. A month and a half ago, I would’ve ranked it fourth (after Argo, Lincoln, Miserables) for its nomination chances. The film has really taken a dive in its chances. I still classify it as a Strong Possibility, but I will not be surprised if it is left out. With Miserables and Pi moving up to Shoo-In, the only other Strong Possibility I listed is David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook. That still holds true and I expect it has a better chance than The Master. Moving from Possible to Strong Possibility is Zero Dark Thirty, which is said to be an epic telling of the U.S. hunt to kill the most wanted man in the world.

Possible

There are still three major films that haven’t screened: Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit, Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, and Gus Van Sant’s Promised Land. So they will remain in this category. I also listed Flight, which I predicted would get nominated originally. I no longer believe so. Both the Foreign film Amour and the indie drama Beasts of the Southern Wild also stand good chances and remain in this category. I also believe the Tsunami drama The Impossible could sneak in. As for the others I listed – Cloud Atlas, Moonrise Kingdom, and The Sessions – I now believe these three pictures stand zero chance of getting nominated and are now long shots at best. One film moving up from Long Shot to Possible: Skyfall, already the biggest 007 adventure ever. Probably won’t happen, but you never know.

Long Shots

Listed back in October: The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers, The Hunger Games, Anna Karenina, and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Nothing has changed here and none of these films are likely to be nominated. Another film has moved from Possible to Long Shot: Hitchcock, about the making of Psycho. Its reviews have simply not been good enough to think it has any real chance of making the list.

A few days ago, my predictions were Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Master, and Silver Linings Playbook. I now believe Zero Dark Thirty is in too. I also believe Amour and The Impossible are real possibilities and we’ll see if Hobbit or Django enter the fray when they screen very soon. I am about ready to take The Master out, but as of this moment I think it has enough support to stay.

So my current Best Picture predictions now stands at eight films:

ARGO

BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

LES MISERABLES

LIFE OF PI

LINCOLN

THE MASTER

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

ZERO DARK THIRTY

Of course, I’ll keep on updating as things change so keep on reading, my friends.

 

 

As a continuation of yesterday’s post, I am updating predictions on what I believe will be nominated for Oscars. Updates were provided in the last post regarding Best Picture and Director. Tonight, the acting categories.

BEST ACTOR

Last month, my predicted five were Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln, Joaquin Phoenix in The Master, John Hawkes in The Sessions, Denzel Washington in Flight, and Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook. The first three listed are shoo-ins and it would be a shock if they weren’t nominated. Washington is a near shoo-in. It’s the fifth slot that’s tricky – other than Cooper, it could easily be Anthony Hopkins in Hitchcock, Jean-Louis Trintignant in Amour, Richard Gere in Arbitrage, Ben Affleck in Argo, or Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables. There has really been nothing in the last month, however, to put them over Cooper. Yet. For now, my predicted five from my October is my predicted five in November.

BEST ACTRESS

The biggest change here since October is that Jessica Chastain’s performance in Zero Dark Thirty was announced as a Best Actress campaign, not Supporting Actress. No one’s seen it yet, but her role has been rumored to be a great one. There’s really only one shoo-in for a nomination and that’s Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook. The other four I predicted were Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild, Emmanuelle Riva in Amour, Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone, and Helen Mirren in Hitchcock. I’m going to go ahead and say Chastain gets in, but it’s tough to predict who gets left out. For now, I’ll replace Riva with Chastain, but we’ll see how this shakes out in a month or so when I update predictions. Also, Naomi Watts in The Impossible is a real possibility.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

In both supporting categories, I predicted one from each that I know believe will not be nominated. For supporting actor, it’s William H. Macy in The Sessions. Don’t think it’s happening now. I’m not changing the other four I predicted – Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master, Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln, Robert DeNiro in Silver Linings Playbook, and Alan Arkin in Argo. With Macy out, candidates for the fifth slot include Leonardo DiCaprio in Django Unchained, John Goodman in Argo, Russell Crowe in Les Miserables, Ewan McGregor in The Impossible, Matthew McConaughey in Magic Mike, and a new contender not mentioned last month, Javier Bardem in Skyfall. No one has seen Django yet, but director Quentin Tarantino has a great record of his actors getting Awards nomination, particularly in the Supporting categories. So for now, my fifth slot predictions goes to DiCaprio.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Like Macy, I now believe Jacki Weaver is unlikely to be nominated for Silver Linings Playbook. Again, the other four predicted from last month still stand: Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables, Sally Field in Lincoln, Helen Hunt in The Sessions, and Amy Adams in The Master. Fifth slot possibilities include Maggie Smith for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and now Judi Dench in Skyfall. However, my new fifth slot prediction now goes to Samantha Barks, a newcomer who apparently has a key role in Les Miserables.

So there you go! In December, I’ll make further prediction updates. 

About a month ago, I made my Academy Award predictions in the six major categories: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress.

As always, things in the race are constantly changing and I felt it was a good time to tell you what has changed in these races over the last 30 days, as more contenders have been seen and more buzz is out there. A few predictions I made don’t seem feasible anymore and other have solidified their standing over this time period. And now, all six categories and what has changed.

BEST PICTURE

As I explained in an earlier post, the number of Best Picture contenders can be anywhere between five and ten films, based on a complicated voting system. All other categories are limited to five and five only. In October, I predicted there would be eight: Argo, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, Les Miserables, The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Flight. The following pictures have yet to be seen by any critics or audiences: Les Miserables, Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, Gus Van Sant’s Promised Land, Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit, and Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty. Any of these pictures are possible nominees, but Les Miserables seems to be the one talked about the most. There is no reason to predict it still won’t be nominated. We’ll know more about these films when I post my next update in early December.

As for the other seven pictures I predicted, the one that seems the most unlikely now is Flight, directed by Robert Zemeckis and starring Denzel Washington. The film is out and doing good box office, but it seems to be flying under the radar now for Awards consideration for Best Pic. 

In my previous post, the biopic Hitchcock starring Anthony Hopkins and Helen Mirren had yet to be seen. Now it has and it’s generated lots of positive reviews and a few negative. It doesn’t quite seem to have enough juice to make the list. 

A month ago, Skyfall seemed like a complete long shot. Now, I’d say it stands a chance, but it’s still unlikely. 

At this point, I am taking Flight off the list and adding nothing, making my current Best Picture predictions:

ARGO

BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

LES MISERABLES

LIFE OF PI

LINCOLN

THE MASTER

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

 

BEST DIRECTOR

I’ll make this one super quick. Last month, I predicted the five directors nominated as:

Ben Affleck, Argo

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

At this time, I am not changing those predictions, though David O. Russell’s work in Silver Linings Playbook could end up making the list and knocking someone off.

We shall see. I’ll be back soon with updates on Actor and Actress, followed by Supporting Actor and Actress in the coming days.

 

Just a quick update on the Oscar race for Best Picture that I wrote about extensively earlier and will soon again.

Argo hit #1 at the box office this weekend in its third weekend. This is a very rare feat for a movie to do and it hasn’t happened in nearly two years when True Grit did.

Typically, a movie drops 40-50% weekend to weekend. This is not the case at all with Argo. It only dropped 25% in its third weekend. Besides being a major critical favorite (with a rating of 96% on Rotten Tomatoes), the Ben Affleck-directed film has clearly become an audience favorite. With drops that low, it is clear that moviegoers are telling their friends to go see it.

What does this mean? Right now, it means that Argo is the front runner to win Best Picture.

We will see Lincoln reviews in the days to come. That could change things, but early screenings suggest it’s very good, but not a masterpiece. If Lincoln does not connect with audiences in the way that Argo already has, it may not overtake the momentum (or Argo-mentum, as my lame headline suggests).

The other factor in the way of Argo is Les Miserables, which seems tailor-made for Oscar attention. No one has seen it yet though. So for now, Argo is the film to beat in the Oscar race.

And now, my third and final entry of Oscar predictions. We are now to who will be nominated in the categories of Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. As with the other posts, there are broken down into four sections: Shoo-Ins, Strong Possibilities, Possible, and Long Shots.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Shoo-Ins

Just as Joaquin Phoenix is a lock for a Best Actor nomination in The Master, so is co-star Philip Seymour Hoffman in this category. And just as Daniel Day-Lewis is a lock for Best Actor in Lincoln, early screenings of the film have made it clear that Tommy Lee Jones will be nominated for his work in the film.

Strong Possibilities

I almost put Alan Arkin in the shoo-in category for his role in Argo. The only thing holding me back a little is that he won six years ago for Little Miss Sunshine. However, he looks in.

Possible

We’ll start with performances from two actors in films no one’s seen. First is Russell Crowe for Les Miserables and second is Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained. Regarding DiCaprio, the Supporting Actor category has a rich history with films directed by Quentin Tarantino. Samuel L. Jackson (Pulp Fiction), Robert Forster (Jackie Brown), David Carradine (Kill Bill – Vol II) and Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) were all recognized for their work with Quentin.

Robert DeNiro is said to give one of the best performances in recent years in Silver Linings Playbook. William H. Macy has received similar buzz for The Sessions. Dwight Henry could see a nomination for Beasts of the Southern Wild, especially if the movie gets a Picture nomination. Same with Ewan McGregor for The Impossible.

Buzz seems to be growing for Michael Pena in End of Watch. Having seen the film, I’d love to see him get nominated. And Matthew McConaughey has had a good last couple of years and the Academy may feel it’s time to recognize him for this summer’s hit Magic Mike. 

Long Shots

Because Alan Arkin is likely to be recognized for Argo, that probably leaves co-stars Bryan Cranston and John Goodman out. The muted buzz for Anna Karenina will likely leave Jude Law out. Other long shots include Jim Broadbent for Cloud Atlas, Albert Brooks in This is 40, and James Gandolfini for Killing Them Softly.

WHO WILL GET NOMINATED?

Sounds like a horse race between Hoffman and Jones at this point and the rest of the field is fairly unpredictable.

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

William H. Macy, The Sessions

Best Supporting Actress

Shoo-Ins

NONE

Strong Possibilities

While I’m not saying there’s any shoo-ins as of yet, there are four strong possibilities. No one has seen Les Miserables yet, but Anne Hathaway is already getting major attention. Amy Adams is likely to be included in a lot of nominations that The Master will receive. As Lincoln’s wife, Sally Field is a good bet to get in. And Helen Hunt is getting rave reviews for The Sessions.

Possible

Jessica Chastain, who got nominated last year for The Help, is said to have an important role in the Bin Laden manhunt thriller Zero Dark Thirty. Maggie Smith is a Hollywood legend and could be nominated for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Frances McDormand could receive her third Supporting Actress nomination for Promised Land. 

Right now, I’m predicting performances in Silver Linings Playbook will be recognized for Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actor. A nomination for Jacki Weaver in this category would bring it to four.

Long Shots

If the movie is a major critical hit that gets a Picture nomination, Scarlett Johannson could sneak in as Janet Leigh in Hitchcock. Same goes for Kerry Washington in Django Unchained.

Who Will Be Nominated?

Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

So, there you have it! I’ll revisit these categories over the next three months as we get closer to the nominations!

As a continuation of my post from two days ago regarding Oscar predictions, here are my thoughts on who we will see nominated in the categories of Best Actor and Best Actress. As with my first, I will predict in four categories: Shoo-Ins, Strong Possibilities, Possible, and Long Shots.

BEST ACTOR

SHOO-INS

Daniel Day-Lewis is a lock for a nomination in Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln. He is considered by many to be the finest actor working today and with the awards attention that the film is bound to receive, it is unfathomable that he won’t be nominated. Interestingly, if Day-Lewis were to win the Oscar, he would set a record by being the only person to win Best Actor three times (he won in 1989 for My Left Foot and in 2007 for There Will Be Blood). Nine actors have won the award twice. Other than Day-Lewis, more recent ones include Sean Penn, Tom Hanks, Dustin Hoffman, and Jack Nicholson.

The other shoo-in is Joaquin Phoenix for The Master, who gives possibly a career best performance. The Academy loves to reward a comeback and after Phoenix’s strange history since his last nomination for Walk the Line (including his bizarre documentary I’m Still Here and notorious appearance on David Letterman’s show), he’ll get noticed.

STRONG POSSIBILITIES

John Hawkes is a near shoo-in for his performance as a quadriplegic in The Sessions and Denzel Washington is said to give his one of best performances in the upcoming Flight.

POSSIBLE

This list is longer with a number of actors possibly filling that fifth slot. I’m convinced Hawkes will be nominated and I’m predicting Washington even though the film’s not out yet. Two possibles are for films no one’s seen yet but depending on reviews could get in: Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables and Anthony Hopkins as Alfred Hitchcock in Hitchcock. Bradley Cooper could certainly see his first nomination for Silver Linings Playbook, which has received fantastic buzz since its festival screenings. In Arbitrage, Richard Gere has gotten some of the best reviews of his career. He’s never been nominated before and the Academy may feel it’s time. Bill Murray playing President Franklin D. Roosevelt seems like an Oscar match, however the film’s buzz at festival screenings was mixed. The Austrian festival favorite Amour gave its lead Jean-Louis Trintignant fabolous reviews and it’s not too rare for the Academy to fill a slot with an actor in a foreign film (Benigni and Dujardin have won in recent times). And the extremely positive reaction to Argo could certainly propel Ben Affleck to his first acting nomination.

LONG SHOTS

So you get the idea that this field is extraordinarily crowded this year. There’s always the possibility of a long shot though and they are: Suraj Sharma for Life of Pi, Brad Pitt for Killing Them Softly, Jamie Foxx for Django Unchained, Jake Gyllenhall for End of Watch, and Matt Damon for Promised Land.

THE PREDICTIONS

Having said all that, I’m finding it very difficult to pick the fifth nominee. I could easily see it being Hopkins, Jackman, Cooper, Gere, Trintignant, or Affleck. If Washington somehow if left out, two of them could fill in. This list is very subject to change, but here goes:

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST ACTRESS

Directly opposite from Best Actor, the field for Best Actress this year is one of the weakest in recent memory. Only ten actresses get mentioned here and half will get in. It’s been a pretty disappointing year for strong female roles.

SHOO-INS

Just one. Jennifer Lawrence will get her second nomination in three years and not for Hunger Games. Her performance in Silver Linings Playbook is getting raves and it doesn’t hurt that she headlined the aforementioned picture, which was one of the year’s biggest blockbusters.

STRONG POSSIBILITIES

Again, just one. Marion Cotillard won Best Actress in 2007 for La Vie En Rose and had a showcase role in Dark Knight Rises in the summer. Her foreign film Rust and Bone drew her great notices on the festival circuit.

POSSIBLE

I see three out of the next five getting in. No one’s seen Hitchcock, as I mentioned, but Helen Mirren is likely to be looked at for playing Hitchcock’s wife. Emmanuelle Riva got raves for Amour. Quvenzhane Wallis, a child actress, headlines the indie favorite Beasts of the Southern Wild. Naomi Watts is getting positive advance word for The Impossible. And Keira Knightly may be nominated for playing Anna Karenina, even though the film is said to be just OK.

LONG SHOTS

You can never totally count Meryl Streep out and her work in Hope Springs might get a look. The others are Judi Dench for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Mary Elizabeth Windstead in the indie Smashed.

THE PREDICTIONS

Lawrence and Cotillard are in. The others are tough to predict right now and I’m leaving Naomi Watts out at the moment, even though I believe she’s got an excellent shot.

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

That’s all for now, folks! I’ll be back soon with predictions for Supporting Actor and Actress!

This is the time of year when many movie pundits start making predictions on what will be nominated for the Oscars. We are officially in “Oscar season”. Why? This is when the movies that are typically given awards consideration are released – between the months of September and December. In general terms, the spring is when movies of all genres are released that aren’t considered Oscar contenders and there’s usually a giant release like this year’s Hunger Games. The summer is blockbuster season when studios release the movies they hope make a LOT of money. Kids are out of school, so this is when lots of superhero flicks, raunchy comedies, and franchise hopefuls come out.

We see that in the fall as well with some BIG releases, like Skyfall and The Hobbit. Autumn, however, is primarily awards season. There’s lots of film festivals, like Toronto, Telluride, and New York. This is where a lot of awards hopefuls screen first, which allows for critics to get the word out on whether it’s great or not. It’s when certain performances jump to the forefront of consideration.

Having said that, there are a few major awards contenders that no one has seen yet: Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thirty, Hitchcock, Django Unchained, Promised Land, and The Hobbit. Just in the last week, advance word on films such as Lincoln and Flight has come out due to screenings done at the N.Y. Film Festival.

I follow the Oscar race very closely. Why? Because I’m a movie fanatic — haven’t you readers figured that out yet??

So, in the post, I am predicting what I believe will be nominated for Best Picture and Director. I will categorize the possible nominees by the following: Shoo-Ins, Strong Possibility, Possible, and Long Shots.

As the unseen films listed above start to gather buzz, the list will be updated in the future, but I am factoring these movies in now and what I think their chances currently are.

Here goes:

BEST PICTURE

This category has been the subject of some controversy among film buffs in the last four years. For decades and decades, the nominating process for Best Picture was simple. Five nominees. Every year. Simple right? Then in 2009, the Academy changed the rules. Now, there would be 10 nominated Pictures (even though every other category would remain 5).   Why the change? Many have speculated that 2008’s omission of The Dark Knight being nominated was a big factor. In that year, generally considered pretty weak for movies, Dark Knight won over critics and audiences in a way few movies do. Not often are the MASSIVE blockbusters such critical darlings too. Many pundits predicted the Academy would do something they normally don’t: nominate the movie that audiences seemed to like the best. They didn’t. So, the 10 movie format was done for 2009 and 2010. In 2011, the format changed again where the number of nominated Best Pictures can fall anywhere between 5 and 10 movies (once again, all other races stay at 5). Last year, nine movies were nominated. I read the guidelines for how Best Picture nominees are chosen now in the new format and got a headache. It’s something about combination of #1 votes and #2 votes and how many ballots the movie appears on. Bottom line? It’s a stupid process. The Academy should simply take it back to five.

Why? In broad terms, there are usually only up to 3 movies that really have a chance to WIN the award. In some years, it’s very easy to predict. Everyone knew Schindler’s List would win in 1993. Everyone knew Titanic would win in 1997. It is very rare that it’s a wide open race and by the time the Oscars air, the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards have already taken place and we have a general idea what and who is going to win… though upsets have happened, though relatively rarely. Also, it is well-known that the winner of Best Picture and Best Director usually match up. 62 out of 85 times as a matter of fact. More importantly, there has been precisely ONE time in the last EIGHTY years where the Director of the Best Picture winner was not nominated for Best Director. That would be in 1989 when Driving Miss Daisy won and its director Bruce Beresford didn’t get nominated. What does that all mean? It means if a movie gets a Best Picture nomination and the director isn’t nominated, that movie stands ZERO chance of winning Best Picture… or 1 out of 80 if you’re gonna be a stickler. Keeping it at five is clean and simple. But, it’s not that way so I have to predict accordingly:

SHOO-INS

Argo came out this weekend and was met with critical and audience acclaim. It also had a big opening weekend (it helps a movie get a nomination when it’s a hit). Why? More viewers tune in when they’ve seen the movies nominated. The 1998 telecast in which Titanic cleaned up is the most watched Oscars in history. Another highly rated telecast more than others? 2004 when Lord of the Rings: Return of the King won. Argo is not the type of hit those movies were, but I had to make that point somehow.

The other shoo-in? Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln. It’s not out yet, but early word is already out and it’s mostly quite positive. If Spielberg’s War Horse got nominated last year, which got a fairly lackluster reception from critics and audiences, there’s no way this won’t get nominated.

STRONG POSSIBILITIES

Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master is about as close to a shoo-in as it can be without me calling it that. The people who love it really love it. Anderson is considered by most, including me, to be one of the very greatest directors working today. The only reason I’m not calling it a total shoo-in is that I’ve seen it and know some critics are beginning to start a small backlash against it. It’s a tough film to categorize and there’s been a small amount of controversy with it due to its allusions to Scientology. Still, at the end of the day, it’s in.

Les Miserables looks like a movie built for Academy Awards. It’s from the director of The King’s Speech. It’s got an A list cast. It’s a musical. The only reason I’m not calling this a shoo-in? As I mentioned, no one’s seen it yet and it could be a critical and commercial flop. That seems highly unlikely though.

Silver Linings Playbook won the Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival, arguably the most influential of all the festivals. It’s not out yet, but it’s said to be a real audience pleaser that’s gotten great reviews so far. The performances by a first-rate cast are said to be outstanding. It looks like it’s in.

Ang Lee’s Life of Pi recently had festival screenings and the response was overwhelmingly positive. It’s based on a known best-seller and looks Academy friendly.

POSSIBLE

We’ll list the five that no one’s seen: Hitchcock, Zero Dark Thirty, The Hobbit, Promised Land and Django Unchained.

The Academy loves movies about making movies and Hitchcock centers on the making of 1960’s classic Psycho, with previous winner Anthony Hopkins playing Hitchcock and previous winner Helen Mirren as his dedicated wife, who contributed much more to Hitchcock’s films than most realize.

Zero Dark Thirty is about the manhunt to kill Osama Bin Laden and comes from Hurt Locker director Kathryn Bigelow, who won for that film in 2009.

The Hobbit? You’ve probably heard of it. Peter Jackson directs the adaptation of Tolkien. His three Lord of the Rings films all received nominations and third installment won.

Promised Land comes from Milk director Gus Van Sant, stars Matt Damon, and is a drama that challenges the fracking phenomenon going in the country. Sounds like something liberals could eat up.

Django Unchained comes from Quentin Tarantino. Pulp Fiction and Inglourious Basterds were nominated and QT is widely considered in the very top tier of working directors whose films are Events.

Robert Zemeckis’s Flight screened at the NY Film Festival last week and is said to be great, even though a lot of the attention centered on Denzel Washington’s performance.

The Austrian film Amour won the Palm D’or at the Cannes Film Festival this year and is a critical favorite. Another critical hit that did very well on the art-house circuit is Beasts of the Southern Wild and the same can be said for Wes Anderon’s Moonrise Kingdom. 

Cloud Atlas is based on a best-seller and comes from the creators of The Matrix trilogy. It’s screened at festivals and seems to be one of those hate-it-or-love-it type of pictures.

The Impossible has received very positive notices on the festival circuit. It stars Naomi Watts and Ewan McGregor and takes place during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The Sessions is another festival favorite, starring John Hawkes as a paraplegic who seeks out a sex therapist, played by Helen Hunt.

LONG SHOTS

Remember how mentioned the controversy about Dark Knight being the country’s favorite and yet it didn’t get nominated? Don’t count on Dark Knight Rises being nominated either, especially because its reviews weren’t nearly as rapturous as its predecessor. Same goes for The Avengers. And The Hunger Games. 

Skyfall is said to be one of the best Bond films ever, but it’s hard to see the Academy nominating it.

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was an art-house and critical hit over the summer, but that’s probably not enough to make it a factor.

Anna Karenina reteams Atonement team of director Joe Wright and star Keira Knightley but it hasn’t received the positive buzz that film did, which led to its nominations.

THE PREDICTIONS

Seeing that anywhere from five to ten films will get nominated and that nine did under the new format last year, I’m going with 8 Pictures getting the nod. They are:

ARGO

BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

FLIGHT

LES MISERABLES

LIFE OF PI

LINCOLN

THE MASTER

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

BEST DIRECTOR

Now that I’ve explained the Pics being nominated, it’s safe to say that all five Directing nominees will be from those movies. That said, here’s the list on the four categories:

SHOO-INS

Ben Affleck for Argo, Steven Spielberg for Lincoln, and Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master

STRONG POSSIBILITIES

Tom Hooper for Les Miserables, Ang Lee for Life of Pi.

POSSIBILE

Michael Haneke for Amour, Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook, Gus Van Sant for Promised Land, Sacha Gervasi for Hitchcock, Benh Zietlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild, Robert Zemeckis for Flight, Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom, and Peter Jackson for The Hobbit, and Quentin Tarantino for Django.

LONG SHOTS

Christopher Nolan for Dark Knight Rises, Sam Mendes for Skyfall, Joe Wright for Anna Karenina, Ben Lewin for The Sessions, Juan Antonio Bayona for The Impossible, Tom Twyker and Andy and Lana Wachowski for Cloud Atlas.

THE PREDICTIONS

Ben Affleck, Argo

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

So there you have it. My initial predictions for Picture and Director. The acting posts will be coming in the next couple of days, so stay tuned!