Category: Oscar Predictions

98th Academy Awards Predictions: August 24th Edition

We are only three days away from festival season beginning in earnest so let’s call these Oscar predictions the calm before the storm. And it’s certainly the last update before major changes will undoubtedly materialize.

Venice kicks off Wednesday where we get our first looks at numerous pictures listed below. That includes After the Hunt, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Scarlet, and Below the Clouds to name a few. The Italian fest runs through September 6th.

On September 4th, the Toronto Film Festival gets underway. That’s right after Telluride plays over Labor Day weekend (their lineup will announce this week). The Canadian fest includes such high-profile contenders as Rental Family, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Hedda, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Christy, and The Lost Bus.

Keep an eye on this blog for scores of Oscar prediction posts over the next three weeks spotlighting these pics and more. As for this update – Picture, Director, and the four acting races remain the same. Even with that stability (for the moment), I’ll note some interesting developments:

  • The trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis’s first movie in eight years, Anemone, dropped. It was enough to almost put him in my Best Actor quintet as he rose three spots from 10th to 7th. His costar Sean Bean is also listed for the first time as a possibility in Supporting Actor.
  • Amy Madigan’s memorable (and creepy) supporting work in Weapons earns the actress her first mention in Supporting Actress. I have her in 8th, but don’t be surprised if she rises given the film’s box office success and the inevitable slides of performers currently ahead of her.
  • The first trailer for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme premiered. I now have it receiving the third most nominations behind Sinners and Wicked: For Good.
  • Ariana Grande’s Wicked: For Good turn is back at #1 in Supporting Actress with Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) dipping from 1st to 3rd. We’ll know soon enough via Venice whether Hunt is an across the board awards player or not. There’s some general skepticism which explains the pic’s drop in numerous categories including BP, the supporting fields, and its original screenplay.

You can read all the movement below and be assured that lots of speculation is coming in the days ahead!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rental Family (PR: 10) (+2)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Hamnet (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (E)

17. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (E)

18. The Secret Agent (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Smashing Machine (PR: 20) (+1)

20. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (E)

22. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 19) (-4)

24. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

F1

The Life of Chuck

Nouvelle Vague

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+6)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)

12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (E)

13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (-3)

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (E)

11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (E)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (E)

13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (E)

14. Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (E)

13. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skaragård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (E)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Weapons

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Die, My Love

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (E)

7. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 10) (+1)

10. SIrât (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All That’s Left of You

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Scarlet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Arco (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Below the Clouds (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Deaf President Now! (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Come See Me in the Good Light

Architection

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Couture (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mother Mary

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 28 Years Later (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Christy (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wolf Man

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Sentimental Value

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-1)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-2)

9. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

TBD from Zootopia 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-2)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (E)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Superman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (E)

5. F1 (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-2)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mickey 17

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

10 Nominations

Marty Supreme

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

After the Hunt, Bugonia, Jay Kelly

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

3 Nominations

Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Below the Clouds, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: Splitsville

Michael Angelo Covino cowrites, directs, and costars in the rom com Splitsville, out this weekend in limited form and widely on September 5th from distributor Neon. It premiered at Cannes back in May. Dakota Johnson headlines along with her filmmaker, Adria Arjona, Kyle Marvin, Nicholas Braun, David Castaneda, O-T Fagbenie, and Charlie Gillespie.

Johnson’s second genre exercise this season (Materialists being the other), Splitsville is drawing mostly positive critical reaction. Rotten Tomatoes is 86% with Metacritic at 75. I do think Golden Globe attention in Best Musical/Comedy is at least a possibility, but the Academy is unlikely to consider it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Ne Zha 2

You might not know it, but Ne Zha 2 is smashing records overseas before the A24 distributed English dub (featuring Michelle Yeoh among the voice cast) hits domestic venues this weekend. The animated Chinese fantasy is the follow-up to 2019’s original and comes from filmmaker Yang Yu, better known as Jiaozi.

The sequel was out in its home country in January before rolling out to additional territories throughout the winter and spring. With $2.2 billion in its coffers, Zha is already the highest grossing animated feature in history (surpassing Inside Out 2).

How will that translate to awards prospects? While it sports 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, the 63 Metacritic score indicates many reviews weren’t over the top in their praise. I will note that part one was China’s submission for Best International Feature Film back at the 92nd Academy Awards and it didn’t land a nom. That race seems out of reach for the 98th ceremony.

This could still manage to nab one of the five Best Animated Feature slots. Yet I’ll note that foreign competition is serious this time around with KPop Demon Hunters, Arco, and Scarlet among titles jockeying for position. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Relay

David Mackenzie’s Relay was first seen at the Toronto Film Festival a year ago and is finally running theatrically this weekend. Riz Ahmed (best actor nominee for 2020’s Sound of Metal), Lily James, and Sam Worthington headline the thriller with Bleecker Street handling distribution.

In 2016, Mackenzie’s Hell or High Water nabbed numerous Academy noms including Best Picture. He’s since followed up with 2019’s Outlaw King and has heist flick Fuze slated for this year’s Toronto Film Festival.

Reviews for Relay are mostly satisfactory with 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 Metacritic. They’re not high enough for awards consideration and Bleecker is not exactly a force when it comes to campaigning anyway. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Night Always Comes

Currently on the big screen with The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Vanessa Kirby stars in Night Always Comes this weekend. Based on a 2021 bestseller by Willy Vlautin, the crime thriller is out on Netflix. The supporting cast includes Jennifer Jason Leigh, Zack Gottsagen, Stephen James, Randall Park, Julia Fox, Michael Kelly, and Eli Roth.

A previous Best Actress nominee for Pieces of a Woman (also a Netflix pickup), Kirby’s newest vehicle won’t drive awards talk. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 59% with Metacritic at 62 and that won’t cut it with voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Americana

Writer/director Tony Tost’s Americana first screened way back in 2023 at the South by Southwest festival. Its lead actress Sydney Sweeney has become considerably more famous since then and the crime thriller is finally out this weekend. Paul Walter Hauser, Halsey, Eric Dane, Zach McClarnon, and Simon Rex are among the supporting players.

Initial reviews were stronger coming out of Austin, but have come down to Earth upon wider viewings. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 68% with Metacritic at 61. Sweeney, who’s been in the news due to commercials more than movies recently, might have a shot at awards chatter with sports drama Christy later this year. It won’t come via Americana. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Fixed

Netflix has put out Fixed this week and it marks the first R rated animation effort from Sony. Genndy Tartakovsky, best known for helming the Hotel Transylvania franchise, directs. The voice cast for the tale of a dog about to be neutered includes Adam DeVine, Idris Elba, Kathryn Hahn, Fred Armisen, Beck Bennett, and Bobby Moynihan.

Originally set for distribution by Warner Bros until they cut it loose, Netflix picked up the rights and reviews are mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 63% with Metacritic at only 51. If Sausage Party couldn’t break into the Academy’s Animated Feature quintet with better marks, that leaves little hope for this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: August 10th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in two weeks finds It Was Just an Accident (the Palme d’Or recipient at Cannes) moving back into my Best Picture top ten and its maker Jafar Panahi in the directorial quintet. This is at the expense of Frankenstein and its maker Guillermo del Toro. The acting derbies, meanwhile, remain unchanged as far as to the 20 nominees with festival season around the corner.

Starting in about three weeks – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto will start to clear a lot of this speculation up. I’ll sneak in another update in a couple weeks before the onslaught of screenings begin.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Hamnet (PR: 13) (-2)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 17) (+1)

17. No Other Choice (PR: 18) (+1)

18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 20) (+1)

20. The Smashing Machine (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Secret Agent (PR: 21) (-1)

23. F1 (PR: 19) (-4)

24. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Die, My Love

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (+3)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12 ) (E)

13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)

15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Is This Thing On? (PR: 11) (-1)

13. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 15) (+2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)

15. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ella McKay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+3)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

14. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Die, My Love (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Scarlet (PR: 5) (+3)

3. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Arco (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Elio (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (E)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Architection (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timestamp

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Couture (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Frankenstein

A House of Dynamite

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

7. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Christy (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Superman

Mother Mary

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 5) (+1)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Superman (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

After the Hunt, Bugonia, Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Rental Family

3 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

Kiss of the Spider Woman, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: My Mother’s Wedding

My Mother’s Wedding, known as North Star at the time, premiered at the Toronto Film Festival all the way back in September 2023. The dramedy marks the directorial debut of actress Kristin Scott Thomas and reunites her with The Horse Whisperer costar Scarlett Johansson. The supporting cast includes Sienna Miller, Emily Beecham, Freida Pinto, Thibault de Montalembert, and Scott Thomas herself.

Distributor Vertical may finally be putting Wedding out, but it’s doing so under the radar considering the talent involved. Reviews may explain why with a lowly 36% Rotten Tomatoes. Many movies begin their awards journeys at Toronto and other fall festivals. The opposite seemed to happen in this case as Wedding limps towards its release date. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Freakier Friday

Sometimes my Oscar Predictions write-ups are actually Golden Globe Predictions and that would apply to Freakier Friday. Out Friday, this is the sequel to the 2003’s Freaky Friday which itself was a remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy that was actually based on a 1972 book. Got all that? Nisha Ganatra directs with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan back headlining. Costars include Mark Harmon, Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, Manny Jacinto, Chad Michael Murray, and Rosalind Chao.

No, Freakier Friday won’t contend for the Academy’s attention. However, the Friday features have a history with the Globes. In Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, both Jodie Foster and Barbara Harris were nominated for the ’76 version (they lost to Barbra Streisand for A Star Is Born). Bonus fun fact: Harris was a double nominee in that category as she was also up for Alfred Hitchcock’s final film Family Plot. In 2003, Jamie Lee Curtis was a hopeful in the same race for the remake and fell short to Diane Keaton for Something’s Gotta Give.

Early reviews for Freakier are pretty decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 Metacritic. That’s lower than Curtis/Lohan’s tale from 22 years ago. If competition is light, it’s not impossible that Curtis could find herself in the Globes mix again. Her chances are certainly less than they were in the earlier part of the century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…