Category: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions: The Long Walk

Based on the first novel he ever wrote (though it wasn’t released until 1979), dystopian horror tale The Long Walk arrives in theaters September 12th. Francis Lawrence (maker of I Am Legend and every Hunger Games flick except the first one) is behind the camera with JT Mollner (writer/director of last year’s critical favorite Strange Darling) scripting. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Garrett Wareing, Tut Nyuot, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Roman Griffin Davis, Jordan Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Hamill (in his second 2025 King adaptation after The Life of Chuck).

In a year where horror is receiving acclaim that the Academy could notice, Walk is generating high praise. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with 80 on Metacritic. Seen as an unadaptable novel (which explains how long it took to arrive on the big screen), critics are saying Lawrence/Mollner pull it off.

Unlike Sinners and Weapons, this is not anticipated to be a major box office juggernaut. With Sinners seemingly poised for Academy love and Weapons contending in Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay (if we’re being generous), Walk is unlikely to generate its own awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A House of Dynamite

Netflix will have some decisions to make when it comes to campaigning for their various entries at the 98th Academy Awards. As expected, Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite will be part of that process. The political thriller marks the director’s first effort behind the camera since 2017’s Detroit. While it didn’t generate any nominations eight years ago, her previous two (2009’s The Hurt Locker, 2012’s Zero Dark Thirty) scored a win and a nom, respectively, in Best Picture. For Locker, Bigelow became the first female to take the Best Director prize (two more have followed).

Dynamite premiered at Venice prior to its October 10th limited theatrical release and October 24th bow on the aforementioned streamer. The large ensemble cast includes Idris Elba, Rebecca Ferguson, Gabriel Basso, Jared Harris, Tracy Letts, Anthony Ramos, Moses Ingram, Jonah Hauer-King, Greta Lee, Kaitlyn Dever, and Jason Clarke.

Reviews indicate this a return to form for the filmmaker. Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic score are both 88 at press time. Best Picture and Director are certainly possibilities. As I mentioned, Netflix has some other potential Venice screening heavy hitters via Jay Kelly and Frankenstein.

The Hurt Locker‘s noms included Jeremy Renner in Actor while Jessica Chastain was up for Actress in Zero Dark Thirty. Word-of-mouth for Dynamite indicates unlikely possibilities for any of the cast. That said, the Academy could honor the whole group in the new Casting race. Other tech possibilities include Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score and Sound. There’s a shot for Original Screenplay though that competition is already looking packed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Smashing Machine

Prior to an October 3rd release from A24, sports biopic The Smashing Machine has been unveiled at Venice with Toronto up next. A passion project of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, the former wrestler plays MMA fighter Mark Kerr in the solo directorial debut from Benny Safdie. Emily Blunt is Kerr’s wife with Ryan Bader, Bas Rutten, and Oleksandr Usyk providing support.

Usually front and center in franchise, action, or family fare (or a combo of them), Smashing has been circled as Johnson’s potential entry into the awards mix. Word-of-mouth from Italy confirms that with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 76 on Metacritic. Numerous reviews call it rather conventional and I doubt Best Picture, its direction, or the script will be up for consideration.

Johnson is a genuine threat to make the Best Actor quintet as is Emily Blunt for Supporting Actress. If she gets in, it would be her second nom in three years for that race behind 2023’s Oppenheimer. Since BP likely isn’t in the cards, it makes both of their inclusions questionable but achievable. The best bet might be Makeup and Hairstyling highlighting Johnson’s transformation for the role. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Testament of Ann Lee

Last year, the creative team of Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold (also partners in real life) guided The Brutalist to 10 Oscar nominations and three victories (Adrien Brody in Actor, Original Score, Cinematography). They’re back in contention this year with The Testament of Ann Lee which has premiered in Venice and will make stops at the Toronto and London festivals. Corbet directed The Brutalist and co-scripted with Fastvold. It’s the reverse this time around with Amanda Seyfried headlining as the title character who founded the evangelical Shakers in the 18th century. A musical drama shot in 70mm, the supporting cast includes Thomasin McKenzie, Lewis Pullman, Stacy Martin, Tim Blake Nelson, Christopher Abbott, and Matthew Beard.

Early Italian buzz indicates divisive vibes as how audiences will react (the same could be said for Brutalist). Yet Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with 76 on Metacritic. I suspect the pic’s more fervent admirers could propel this to a Best Picture nomination alongside Fastvold’s direction and original screenplay with Corbet. On the other hand, several reviews indicate this is more of a feature to admire than love (again… Brutalist vibes). Academy voters may ignore the aforementioned competitions.

Ignoring Seyfried is another story. Her performance seems poised to garner her a second nom after a Supporting Actress bid in 2020 for Mank. I’d put her behind Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), but a spot in the quintet seems likely. Unlike The Brutalist (where three performances vied for gold), her work should mark the sole attention paid to the cast. Down-the-line nods like Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costume Design, and Film Editing are all possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Ballad of a Small Player

Edward Berger’s last two features (2022’s All Quiet on the Western Front, last year’s Conclave) amassed a total of 17 nominations at the Oscars. The former won four including International Feature Film while the latter received Adapted Screenplay. So it’s no surprise that Ballad of a Small Player, his latest that premiered at Telluride, is automatically seen as a potential contender. Based on a 2014 novel by Lawrence Osborne, Colin Farrell stars as a degenerate gambler in the multi-genre affair. Costars include Fala Chen, Deanie Ip, Alex Jennings, and Tilda Swinton. There’s a limited release October 15th before a Netflix bow on October 29th.

While some praise is devoted to the look of Ballad, reaction out of Colorado is mixed and this is evidenced by the 51 Metacritic score. Rotten Tomatoes has yet to report based on 9 write-ups though 6 are fresh with 3 rotten. Reviews tend to agree that Farrell offers a memorable performance. Three years back, he received his first leading actor nod for The Banshees of Inisherin. His work may provide Player‘s one shot at Academy attention. Given the expected competition, I wouldn’t bet on it as Netflix may shift their focus elsewhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Cover-Up

Cover-Up explores the work of journalist and Pulitzer Prize recipient Seymour Hersh and it’s playing a foursome of festivals that began with Venice and continues with Telluride, Toronto, and New York. Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus direct with stateside distribution pending.

Poitras is no stranger to the awards mix for her documentaries. Citizenfour, focused on Edward Snowden, was the 2015 Oscar winner in Doc Feature. 2022’s All the Beauty and the Bloodshed took top prize at Venice (the Golden Lion) but was snubbed by the Academy.

Rotten Tomatoes for Cover-Up is at 100% and certainly reaction is laudatory enough for this to contend at the 98th Academy Awards. Whether the unpredictable branch for the genre put it on their shortlist remains to be seen, but this is one to keep in mind for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Wizard of the Kremlin

The Wizard of the Kremlin has premiered in Venice with its stateside distribution yet to be determined. French filmmaker Oliver Assayas (Clouds of Sils Maria, Personal Shopper) casts Paul Dano as a fictional artist turned government official working alongside Jude Law as the very real Vladimir Putin during his younger years as he rose to power. Costars include Alicia Vikander, Will Keen, Tom Sturridge, and Jeffrey Wright.

More than one critic is saying this feels like a miniseries packed into a runtime of just over two and a half hours. They don’t mean it as a compliment as write-ups are mixed to negative with 46% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Based upon the acclaimed debut novel from Giuliano da Empoli, the cinematic version’s only legit shot at awards attention is Law’s performance and perhaps Makeup and Hairstyling when considering the actor’s transformation to the Russian leader. A two-time nominee in supporting for 1999’s The Talented Mr. Ripley and lead with 2003’s Cold Mountain, the Academy could reward him for taking on a risky role. I just suspect the meh reaction could hinder that possibility, but let’s see how many competitors emerge in the coming days and weeks. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Hamnet

Five years after Nomadland won her Best Picture and Director statues at the 93rd Academy Awards, Chloé Zhao looks to be contending once again at the 98th ceremony due to Hamnet. Based on the 2020 novel by Maggie O’Farrell (who cowrites the script with the filmmaker), the historical drama has premiered at Telluride prior to its late November limited release and December 12th expansion. It will also screen in Toronto. Jessie Buckley, a Supporting Actress nominee for The Lost Daughter, headlines as Agnes Shakespeare. Paul Mescal, a lead actor contender for 2022’s Aftersun, is her famous playwright husband. Costars include Joe Alwyn, Emily Watson, and Jacobi Jupe.

A fictionalized account of the Shakespeares’ relationship, Hamnet is being called an emotionally wrenching experience and is drawing raves from critics. Metacritic is at 95 with 100% thus far on Rotten Tomatoes. While the MCU’s Eternals (considered by many to be a disappointment) was Zhao’s follow-up to her BP winner, this should bring her back to the awards conversation in multiple categories.

That includes Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay where inclusion seems quite real. In down-the-line plays, there are multiple possibilities starting with Max Richter’s score. This is in addition to Costume Design, Production Design, Cinematography, and Film Editing.

As for the performances, let’s start with the fact that the new Casting race is doable. There’s no doubt that Buckley is not just a threat for a nomination, but a victory. As for Mescal, it will be interesting to see if Focus Features campaigns for him in lead or supporting. I’m sticking with him in the latter for now though it sounds like it could go either way. I don’t believe his inclusion is as assured as Buckley’s, but the pic’s overall momentum could definitely propel him to a second at bat. Bottom line: Hamnet has unquestionably upped its chances already via the festival circuit.

Oscar Predictions: Frankenstein

Guillermo del Toro’s previous three directorial efforts have either won Best Picture (2017’s The Shape of Water), been nominated for BP (2021’s Nightmare Alley), or won Best Animated Feature (Pinocchio). So it’s no surprise that his passion project – the filmmaker’s version of Frankenstein – is seen as a hopeful in numerous categories at the 98th Academy Awards. The two and a half hour gothic rendering of Mary Shelley’s novel has screened at Venice (with Toronto up next). It hits theaters October 17th in limited fashion before a Netflix streaming start on November 7th. Oscar Isaac is Dr. Frankenstein with Jacob Elordi as the Creature. Costars include Mia Goth, Christoph Waltz, Felix Kammerer, Lars Mikkelsen, David Bradley, Charles Dance, and Christian Convery.

Reaction from Italy could be described as respectful for what del Toro has accomplished without being overzealous in the praise. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic at 73. That’s in the neighborhood of where Nightmare Alley was and Netflix could pull off a BP nod if their campaign is well executed. Of the cast, only Elordi (in supporting) seems like a potential threat for inclusion. I wouldn’t count on del Toro’s direction or adapted screenplay being honored.

Where Frankenstein is expected to pop up is tech derbies like Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling (a shoo-in), Production Design (same), Sound, Visual Effects, and Alexandre Desplat’s score. This may not nab the monster haul of all those categories, but it should definitely be noticed in some. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Awards prospects for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere are no longer a complete unknown now that it has premiered at Telluride prior to its October 24th domestic bow. Chronicling the making of his 1982 album Nebraska during a tumultuous personal period, Jeremy Allen White headlines as the legendary Boss in the Scott Cooper directed effort. Jeremy Strong (as longtime manager Jon Landau), Paul Walter Hauser, Stephen Graham, Odessa Young, Gaby Hoffman, Marc Maron, and David Krumholtz costar.

As reviews trickle in from Colorado, some common themes have emerged. Critics are praising its focus on a particular time in Springsteen’s legendary career and avoiding musical biopic cliches. Word-of-mouth indicates this could fare well with Academy voters like last year’s Bob Dylan centered A Complete Unknown. That includes viability in Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and down-the-line races like Casting, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and certainly Sound. Cooper probably is a long shot for his direction though it is worth noting that James Mangold was a bit of a surprise nominee for Unknown.

As for the performances, White (a two-time Emmy winner for The Bear) seems poised for his first Oscar recognition. In the supporting derbies, it sounds like Strong is the better bet over Graham. Prognosticators have been wondering who would emerge between the two. If the Succession thespian makes the Supporting Actor quintet, it would be his second nom in a row after last year’s The Apprentice. While Odessa Young is being singled out in some write-ups, I doubt she materializes in Supporting Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…