Oscars: The Case of Oppenheimer

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered six of the BP nominees. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer.

The Case for Oppenheimer:

Since it debuted last summer, the biopic of the “father of the atomic bomb” stood out as a massive awards player. It has a director who’s considered overdue for Oscar recognition. There’s widespread critical acclaim. And it’s an opportunity for the Academy to recognize a pic that general audiences flocked to (nearly a billion worldwide). The 13 nominations are the most of any film and it has already taken top honors at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. The other nods are for Nolan in Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Emily Blunt), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound. I would contend it has a real shot at picking up gold for at least 8 of them, in addition to BP.

The Case Against Oppenheimer:

There’s no doubt that it’s the frontrunner. And sometimes being the frontrunner causes a backlash that begets an upset. Usually the movie with the most nods doesn’t take BP (it’s only happened 3 out of the last 10 years with Birdman, The Shape of Water, and Everything Everywhere All at Once).

The Verdict:

Yes, there’s always the chance for a shocker. The Holdovers looms as a spoiler and perhaps the huge press generated by the Barbie snubs could propel it to a BP victory. Poor Things has its ardent supporters. That said, Oppenheimer is the far and away favorite for this and other prizes on March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with Past Lives…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction

Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall

Oscars: The Case of Barbie

Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers

Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon

Oscars: The Case of Maestro

Oscars: The Case of Maestro

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered the first half of the BP lineup. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Bradley Cooper’s Maestro.

The Case for Maestro:

Marking the filmmaker’s second behind the camera effort after 2018’s A Star is Born, the Leonard Bernstein biopic landed BP nods at Critics Choice and the Globes. Cooper and costar Carey Mulligan have been a fixture in the lead acting derbies. Its seven total nominations matched and arguably even exceeded expectations. The other nods (Star managed one better at 8): the aforementioned Cooper and Mulligan in their respective races, Original Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound.

The Case Against Maestro:

It hasn’t won any of those BP competitions. The 80% Rotten Tomatoes score is actually the lowest of the ten hopefuls. BAFTA didn’t recognized it for Best Film. There were key misses in Director (just as Cooper missed that category for Star five years back) and Film Editing.

The Verdict:

Maestro has a solid chance at taking Makeup and Hairstyling. Everything else looks questionable and BP looks totally out of reach.

My Case Of posts will continue with Oppenheimer…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction

Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall

Oscars: The Case of Barbie

Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers

Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon

Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered our first four pics with American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, and The Holdovers. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon is up next for your consideration. Let’s get into it.

The Case for Killers of the Flower Moon:

Ranking third in number of nominations with 10 (behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things), Scorsese’s sprawling epic has earned BP mentions at BAFTA, Critics Choice, the Globes, and for its Ensemble at SAG. The other nominations are for Scorsese in Director, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. The legendary filmmaker achieves his 10th movie up for the big prize with 2006’s The Departed being the sole victor. Perhaps voters will feel it’s time to honor his work again.

The Case Against Killers of the Flower Moon:

The precursors certainly haven’t treated this as any sort of career achievement prize. Oppenheimer took the highest honors at Critics Choice and the Globes. Additionally, Moon experienced some loud snubs with Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor and especially Adapted Screenplay.

The Verdict:

Once seen as a serious threat for the gold, Killers might be lucky to win anything. The best chance lies with Gladstone. Everything else is a long shot.

My Case Of posts will continue with Maestro…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction

Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall

Oscars: The Case of Barbie

Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers

Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered our first three pics with American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, and Barbie. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Behind door #4 is Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers.

The Case for The Holdovers:

With a 97% rating, it is #1 on the Tomato-meter (just edging the 96% of Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall). The 70s set Christmas dramedy is Payne’s fourth feature to nab a BP nod after Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska and this might be his most appreciated work yet. It has scored BP nods at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Paul Giamatti is a threat to win Best Actor and Da’Vine Joy Randolph is absolutely the frontrunner in Supporting Actress. The Holdovers may also take Original Screenplay. If it emerges in all 3 of those races, that’s a nice little formula for a BP victory.

The Case Against The Holdovers:

It hasn’t won any of the aforementioned BP derbies (Globes, Critics) and it’s unlikely to take BAFTA. Payne missed the quintet in Director. In the 21st century, only 3 movies (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have been named BP without their maker being nominated. And then there’s the fact that Oppenheimer is simply a heavy favorite.

The Verdict:

An argument can be made that The Holdovers is #2 in the BP sweepstakes. However, Payne’s omission in Director sticks out and topping Oppenheimer is a potentially insurmountable challenge.

My Case Of posts will continue with Killers of the Flower Moon…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction

Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall

Oscars: The Case of Barbie

Oscars: The Case of Barbie

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered American Fiction and Anatomy of a Fall and you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third contestant for BP glory is a little picture called Barbie. Perhaps you’ve heard of it. Let’s get into it.

The Case for Barbie:

If Oscar voters go with the most popular and seen choice, Greta Gerwig’s fantasy dramedy based on the Mattel doll is your selection. The pic became 2023’s largest earner last summer to the tune of nearly $1.5 billion worldwide and $636 million domestically. It landed BP nods at key precursors including SAG, the Globes, and Critics Choice. In addition to BP, there are seven other nods: Supporting Actress (America Ferrera), Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design, and 2 possibilities in Original Song (“I’m Just Ken” and “What Was I Made For?”), making it the fourth most nominated feature behind Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon.

The Case Against Barbie:

Despite the 8 total nominations, there were significant snubs (in case you haven’t read the news this week). Greta Gerwig did not make the quintet in Director and Margot Robbie (despite making all the major precursors) missed in Actress. It is rare (only thrice this century) for a BP recipient to have its filmmaker not even nominated. Barbie didn’t turn up in the final five at BAFTA.

The Verdict:

One could argue that the widely publicized news of Gerwig and Robbie’s exclusions could cause Academy voters to honor it here. I wouldn’t bank on it. Barbie is unlikely to go home empty-handed (victories in Production Design and Original Song are probably happening and Costume Design and Adapted Screenplay are doable). As for BP, Barbie‘s roadblock is the movie it will forever be linked with: Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. They opened the same day, crushed the box office charts together, and coined the Barbenheimer phenomenon. It is Oppenheimer way out in front in the big race.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Holdovers…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction

Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall

Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction kicked it off and now we arrive at Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall. If you missed my facts and opinions about Fiction, you can find it here:

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction

Now let’s cover Anatomy, shall we?

The Case for Anatomy of a Fall:

The awards buzz for the French legal drama began when it won the Palme d’Or at Cannes last summer and it never let up. Fall ended up nabbing 5 overall Academy noms – the others being Triet in Director, Sandra Hüller in Actress, Original Screenplay, and Film Editing. In addition to the Cannes love, it took the foreign feature prize at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.

The Case Against Anatomy of a Fall:

Due to a French blunder, it did not receive six nominations. That’s because the nation submitted The Taste of Things as their entry for International Feature Film. Oscar voters didn’t put Taste in their contending quintet. Had they gone with Anatomy, it would be the frontrunner or at worst co-frontrunner for that race over The Zone of Interest. That unforced error caused many to wonder whether this would even make the top ten in BP. Another obvious reason against: Parasite is the sole international title to take BP.

The Verdict:

Anatomy has a shot at Original Screenplay (it impressively took Screenplay at the Globes). As covered, it had a terrific shot at being the IFF recipient. It will not win Best Picture.

My Case Of posts will continue with Barbie…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction

I will begin with the ten BP contenders and then alternate alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction kicks it off!

The Case for American Fiction:

The awards buzz for Hustle went into high gear when it won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. That prize has also been bestowed to BP victors American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. The satire has been nominated for BP at Critics Choice and the Golden Globes and it exceeded expectations with 5 totals noms: Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Score being the others.

The Case Against American Fiction:

It hasn’t won any of the previous BP derbies. Despite the five mentions, it missed out in key BP winning races like Director and Film Editing.

The Verdict:

American Beauty should still be the most recent BP recipient beginning the word American. Fiction‘s best hope for a statue is in the seemingly wide open Adapted Screenplay category where it emerged victorious at Critics Choice.

My Case Of posts will continue with Anatomy of a Fall…

Oscars: The Case of Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

As the mild-mannered Waymond Wang, husband to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once, Ke Huy Quan is the final Supporting Actor entrant in my Case Of posts.

The Case for Ke Huy Quan:

It’s an Oscar storyline for the ages. Nearly 40 years ago, Quan was a child actor appearing in iconic blockbusters as Short Round in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data in The Goonies. His career stalled shortly after and he quit acting altogether in the early 90s. After Crazy Rich Asians (featuring his costar Yeoh) hit it big in 2018, Quan decided to get back in the mix. Everything clicked and he’s emerged victorious at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG.

The Case Against Ke Huy Quan:

Just when it looked like he was on his way to a sweep, BAFTA threw a curveball and honored Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin). If Everything fails to capitalize on its frontrunner status in Best Picture and other races, it could hinder Quan.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

Despite Keoghan’s victory at BAFTA, Quan appears destined for Academy glory next weekend. Of the four acting derbies, this is the easiest to project.

My Case Of posts (all 35 of them!) have concluded. Keep an eye on the blog and podcast (search Movies at the Speed of Speculation on Apple or other apps) for FINAL predictions coming your way on Wednesday, March 8th.

If you missed my earlier Supporting Actor write-ups, you can find them here:

Oscars: The Case of Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin

Oscars: The Case of Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway

Oscars: The Case of Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

Oscars: The Case of Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin

Oscars: The Case of Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu’s at turns villainous and sympathetic character(s) in Everything Everywhere All at Once is the final Case Of post for the Supporting Actress nominees at the 95th Academy Awards.

The Case for Stephanie Hsu:

Playing dual roles in the Daniels multi-genre tale, Hsu garnered raves as Michelle Yeoh’s daughter. SAG and Critics Choice nods followed and the Academy doesn’t shy away from honoring exciting relative newcomers (think Ariana DeBose from West Side Story last year).

The Case Against Stephanie Hsu:

The major precursors have spread the love around for Supporting Actress contenders, but it hasn’t included any victories for Hsu. Her costar Jamie Lee Curtis (who won SAG) may have a stronger narrative for the statue given her decades long career. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) took Critics Choice and the Golden Globe (no nod for Hsu there) while Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) was honored at BAFTA (where Hsu also missed).

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

There are three performers vying for a walk up the stage and Hsu isn’t one of them.

My Case Of posts will continue with Hsu’s costar Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once!

Entries for the other Supporting Actress hopefuls can be found here:

Oscars: The Case of Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Oscars: The Case of Hong Chau in The Whale

Oscars: The Case of Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Oscars: The Case of Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Oscars: The Case of Bill Nighy in Living

Bill Nighy’s performance as an English bureaucrat with a terminal cancer diagnosis in Living is the final Case Of post for the five Best Actor hopefuls.

The Case for Bill Nighy:

From a randy aging rocker in Love Actually to Davy Jones in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise and a zombified stepdad in Shaun of the Dead, Nighy has been a fixture on domestic screens for two decades. His work in the acclaimed Living somehow marks his first major awards exposure. He’s been nominated everywhere that counts from the Globes to Critics Choice to SAG and BAFTA.

The Case Against Bill Nighy:

Despite being included in all significant precursors, there’s no victory to be found for the central performance in this remake of Akira Kurosawa’s Ikiru. All the attention has been focused on Austin Butler (Elvis) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) as they battle down the stretch.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

While making the quintet was practically guaranteed, Nighy’s chances of winning are DOA for Living.

My Case Of posts will continue with Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once!

Write-ups for the other Best Actor nominees can be found here:

Oscars: The Case of Austin Butler in Elvis

Oscars: The Case of Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Oscars: The Case of Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Oscars: The Case of Paul Mescal in Aftersun

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