Oscars: The Case of Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain. If you missed my post covering Yura Borisov in Anora, it’s linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Kieran Culkin:

Ever since A Real Pain premiered at Sundance over a year ago, Culkin has been considered a strong possibility for awards play. That narrative has carried over and intensified as the Succession Emmy winner has already picked up the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award. He’s also vying for BAFTA and SAG.

The Case Against Kieran Culkin:

The fact that A Real Pain didn’t nab a BP nod from the Academy is a tad concerning. Christopher Plummer (Beginners) is the last Supporting Actor recipient whose film wasn’t up in the big race and that was 13 years ago.

The Verdict:

Culkin is unquestionably the favorite. If someone else snags BAFTA or SAG (say Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown or Guy Pearce in The Brutalist), it could get more interesting.

My Case Of posts will continue with the second hopeful in Best Director and that’s Brady Corbet for The Brutalist

Oscars: The Case of Ariana Grande in Wicked

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Ariana Grande in Jon M. Chu’s Wicked. If you missed my post on Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown, it’s linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Ariana Grande:

As Glinda the Good in the hugely popular adaptation of the stage play, Grande scored big love from audiences and critics. It resulted in nominations at the Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. This is an opportunity for the Academy to recognize one of the most widely seen performances of the evening.

The Case Against Ariana Grande:

At the Globes and Critics Choice, she’s fallen short to another musical performance in Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez.

The Verdict:

Grande is in the same boat as my previous post with Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. Both are considered the runner-ups because they’ve yet to win a significant precursor. Like Chalamet, I think Grande needs to take SAG in order to have any real shot of taking gold over Saldaña. She could score a mild upset if the recent Pérez controversy extends beyond Karla Sofia Gascón.

My Case Of posts will continue with the next contender in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain…

Oscars: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown. If you missed my post on Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), it’s linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

Best Actor (2017, Call Me by Your Name) – lost to Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

The Case for Timothée Chalamet:

He’s essentially Hollywood’s IT leading man of the moment coming off Wonka, Dune: Part Two, and this biopic where he embodies Bob Dylan. Plenty of critics have hailed it as career best work and he’s landed precursor nods everywhere that matter (Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG). Chalamet would make Oscar history as the youngest victor in this competition.

The Case Against Timothée Chalamet:

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) has already taken the Globe and Critics Choice as he seeks his second gold statue. Side note – he’s the current record holder for youngest Best Actor recipient for The Pianist (2002). Voters might figure Chalamet will have other opportunities as his career progresses.

The Verdict:

Chalamet is rightly seen as the runner-up. If he can snag SAG next weekend, this becomes a race. If it goes to Brody, the sweep is likely on.

My Case Of posts will continue with our next Supporting Actress contender and that’s Ariana Grande in Wicked

Oscars: The Case of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Actress and that’s Karla Sofia Gascón for Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez. If you missed my post on Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), it’s linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Karla Sofia Gascón:

The Spanish actress has been nominated in the key quartet of precursors with the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Playing the title character in the most nominated picture, a Gascón victory would be history making as she’s the first transgender performer nominated in the category.

The Case Against Karla Sofia Gascón:

Well… it’s voluminous but let’s start with the non-obvious. There’s been no precursor wins of note and she lost to Demi Moore (The Substance) at the Globes and Critics Choice. While she may play the titular role, her costar Zoe Saldaña has been the focus of attention in Supporting Actress. Then there’s the headline making controversy. Last month, a number of Gascón’s social media posts from a few years back resurfaced containing troubling comments. The firestorm was enough for Netflix to essentially drop any campaign for her in Best Actress and refocus all attention on its other nominations.

The Verdict:

Gascón wasn’t a real threat to win before the scandal and is even less so now.

My Case Of posts will continue with the second contender in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

Oscars: The Case of Sean Baker for Anora

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for Anora.

Previous Oscar Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Sean Baker:

After winning Best Picture at PGA and Critics Choice last weekend, Anora became the frontrunner for the same prize at the Oscars. For Mr. Baker, his chances went way up after taking the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award on Saturday. For context, 21 of the 24 DGA victors in the 21st century have taken done the same from the Academy. He scored noms at BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes.

The Case Against Sean Baker:

He lost that Golden Globe to Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Jon M. Chu (Wicked) was the unexpected recipient at Critics Choice. While Chu isn’t nominated for the Oscar, voters could opt for Corbet’s more epic in nature project and honor Baker in Original Screenplay. Since he is the editor of Anora, he could also win that gold statue so that’s another at bat.

The Verdict:

For quite some time, it looked like Baker would be a first-time Academy honoree in Screenplay and perhaps Screenplay only. Now he’s in contention for four in one night with Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. His chances for the filmmaking competition skyrocketed after DGA.

My Case Of posts will continue with our second hopeful in Best Actress and that’s Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez

That should be an interesting post.

Oscars: The Case of Yura Borisov in Anora

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov in Sean Baker’s Anora.

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Yura Borisov:

As sympathetic henchman Igor to Mikey Madison’s title character, the Russian actor has run the table with nominations in significant precursors including the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG. After a weekend in which his picture won top prizes at Critics Choice and PGA and Baker’s direction took DGA, Anora has become the Academy’s frontrunner and perhaps those coattails could sweep him in.

The Case Against Yura Borisov:

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is the Globe and Critics Choice recipient and could sweep through the season. If he doesn’t, Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) are in BP nominees as well and both possess veteran careers that could lead to an overdue feeling.

The Verdict:

A victory isn’t much of a real possibility unless he surprises at BAFTA or SAG.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for (you guessed it) Anora

Oscars: The Case of Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown.

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Monica Barbaro:

As Bob Dylan’s on and off again flame Joan Baez, Barbaro has a breakout role as the legendary folk singer. The SAG awards put her in their mix and the picture itself scored an impressive eight nominations overall.

The Case Against Monica Barbaro:

Folks making up the voting branches at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes did not nominate her. Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez has dominated the precursors.

The Verdict:

Of Unknown‘s three acting nominees – Timothée Chalamet in Actor, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, and here – I would rank Barbaro third in terms of winning possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov from Anora

Oscars: The Case of Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Actor and that’s Adrien Brody for Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist.

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Actor (The Pianist) – WON

The Case for Adrien Brody:

Adrien Brody’s lead acting victory for Roman Polanski’s The Pianist was a surprise 22 years ago when he beat heavy hitters like Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) and Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York). With wins already at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, this time he’s the frontrunner. He hasn’t missed anywhere with two at bats forthcoming at the BAFTAs and SAG.

The Case Against Adrien Brody:

He already has a gold statue and the Academy might want to honor Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown (who would replace Brody as the youngest Best Actor winner ever). The Brutalist‘s fortunes in Best Picture and Director could be fading with Anora on the upswing and that could hinder this everywhere.

The Verdict:

Brody is the favorite. If Chalamet can pick up BAFTA (less likely) or SAG (likelier), this becomes more of a race.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first contender in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown

Oscars: The Case of Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Actress and that’s Cynthia Erivo for Jon M. Chu’s Wicked.

Previous Acting Nominations:

Actress (Harriet, 2019) – lost to Renée Zellweger in Judy

The Case for Cynthia Erivo:

As the eventual Wicked Witch of the West, Erivo could achieve rare EGOT status (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony victories) if she wins her second acting Oscar nom behind 2019’s Harriet. She has run the table with noms at precursors including BAFTA, the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice. Of the five pics in contention, it is certainly the most popular with audiences at over $700 million worldwide.

The Case Against Cynthia Erivo:

She fell short to Demi Moore (The Substance) at the Globes and Critics Choice. It is thought that her costar Ariana Grande has a better shot to take gold in the supporting field.

The Verdict:

Several days ago, Erivo might’ve been considered fifth out of the five actresses in terms of winning chances. That last place designation now certainly belongs to Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), but that still means Erivo is fourth.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

Oscars: The Case of Nickel Boys

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered seven of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The next entry is Nickel Boys from RaMell Ross.

The Case for Nickel Boys:

With 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 91 Metacritic, Nickel Boys has sat atop or near the top of many critics best of lists. Precursor attention in BP came from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Nickel Boys:

The Case for Nickel Boys above will be the shortest of the bunch. While it landed noms at the Globes and Critics Choice, victories are non-existent and it missed at BAFTA and didn’t make the PGA cut. It is up for only one more Oscar in Adapted Screenplay and therefore has the fewest nominations of all 10 BP hopefuls. That means no directing love for RaMell Ross and no acting contestants. This is not a recipe that equals BP.

The Verdict:

Don’t bet on Nickel as an argument could be made that it’s 10th of the 10 contenders in terms of winning possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Substance