Category: Oscar: Case Of

Oscar movies

Oscars: The Case of Sean Baker for Anora

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for Anora.

Previous Oscar Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Sean Baker:

After winning Best Picture at PGA and Critics Choice last weekend, Anora became the frontrunner for the same prize at the Oscars. For Mr. Baker, his chances went way up after taking the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award on Saturday. For context, 21 of the 24 DGA victors in the 21st century have taken done the same from the Academy. He scored noms at BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes.

The Case Against Sean Baker:

He lost that Golden Globe to Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Jon M. Chu (Wicked) was the unexpected recipient at Critics Choice. While Chu isn’t nominated for the Oscar, voters could opt for Corbet’s more epic in nature project and honor Baker in Original Screenplay. Since he is the editor of Anora, he could also win that gold statue so that’s another at bat.

The Verdict:

For quite some time, it looked like Baker would be a first-time Academy honoree in Screenplay and perhaps Screenplay only. Now he’s in contention for four in one night with Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. His chances for the filmmaking competition skyrocketed after DGA.

My Case Of posts will continue with our second hopeful in Best Actress and that’s Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez…

That should be an interesting post.

Oscars: The Case of Yura Borisov in Anora

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov in Sean Baker’s Anora.

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Yura Borisov:

As sympathetic henchman Igor to Mikey Madison’s title character, the Russian actor has run the table with nominations in significant precursors including the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG. After a weekend in which his picture won top prizes at Critics Choice and PGA and Baker’s direction took DGA, Anora has become the Academy’s frontrunner and perhaps those coattails could sweep him in.

The Case Against Yura Borisov:

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is the Globe and Critics Choice recipient and could sweep through the season. If he doesn’t, Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) are in BP nominees as well and both possess veteran careers that could lead to an overdue feeling.

The Verdict:

A victory isn’t much of a real possibility unless he surprises at BAFTA or SAG.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for (you guessed it) Anora…

Oscars: The Case of Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown.

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Monica Barbaro:

As Bob Dylan’s on and off again flame Joan Baez, Barbaro has a breakout role as the legendary folk singer. The SAG awards put her in their mix and the picture itself scored an impressive eight nominations overall.

The Case Against Monica Barbaro:

Folks making up the voting branches at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes did not nominate her. Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez has dominated the precursors.

The Verdict:

Of Unknown‘s three acting nominees – Timothée Chalamet in Actor, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, and here – I would rank Barbaro third in terms of winning possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov from Anora…

Oscars: The Case of Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Actor and that’s Adrien Brody for Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist.

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Actor (The Pianist) – WON

The Case for Adrien Brody:

Adrien Brody’s lead acting victory for Roman Polanski’s The Pianist was a surprise 22 years ago when he beat heavy hitters like Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) and Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York). With wins already at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, this time he’s the frontrunner. He hasn’t missed anywhere with two at bats forthcoming at the BAFTAs and SAG.

The Case Against Adrien Brody:

He already has a gold statue and the Academy might want to honor Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown (who would replace Brody as the youngest Best Actor winner ever). The Brutalist‘s fortunes in Best Picture and Director could be fading with Anora on the upswing and that could hinder this everywhere.

The Verdict:

Brody is the favorite. If Chalamet can pick up BAFTA (less likely) or SAG (likelier), this becomes more of a race.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first contender in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown…

Oscars: The Case of Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Actress and that’s Cynthia Erivo for Jon M. Chu’s Wicked.

Previous Acting Nominations:

Actress (Harriet, 2019) – lost to Renée Zellweger in Judy

The Case for Cynthia Erivo:

As the eventual Wicked Witch of the West, Erivo could achieve rare EGOT status (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony victories) if she wins her second acting Oscar nom behind 2019’s Harriet. She has run the table with noms at precursors including BAFTA, the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice. Of the five pics in contention, it is certainly the most popular with audiences at over $700 million worldwide.

The Case Against Cynthia Erivo:

She fell short to Demi Moore (The Substance) at the Globes and Critics Choice. It is thought that her costar Ariana Grande has a better shot to take gold in the supporting field.

The Verdict:

Several days ago, Erivo might’ve been considered fifth out of the five actresses in terms of winning chances. That last place designation now certainly belongs to Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), but that still means Erivo is fourth.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Adrien Brody in The Brutalist…

Oscars: The Case of Nickel Boys

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered seven of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The next entry is Nickel Boys from RaMell Ross.

The Case for Nickel Boys:

With 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 91 Metacritic, Nickel Boys has sat atop or near the top of many critics best of lists. Precursor attention in BP came from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Nickel Boys:

The Case for Nickel Boys above will be the shortest of the bunch. While it landed noms at the Globes and Critics Choice, victories are non-existent and it missed at BAFTA and didn’t make the PGA cut. It is up for only one more Oscar in Adapted Screenplay and therefore has the fewest nominations of all 10 BP hopefuls. That means no directing love for RaMell Ross and no acting contestants. This is not a recipe that equals BP.

The Verdict:

Don’t bet on Nickel as an argument could be made that it’s 10th of the 10 contenders in terms of winning possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Substance…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave
Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two
Oscars: The Case of Emilia Pérez
Oscars: The Case of I’m Still Here

Oscars: The Case of I’m Still Here

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered six of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is I’m Still Here from Walter Salles.

The Case for I’m Still Here:

The Brazilian drama has been a critics favorite ever since it debuted in Venice where it won the Best Screenplay prize. The love is evidenced by the 95% Rotten Tomatoes score coupled with its 99% Audience Score on that site. It is a threat to win its other two nominations for International Feature Film and Actress (Fernanda Torres) based on the growing momentum.

The Case Against I’m Still Here:

It was unquestionably the surprise nominee on nomination morning that few (including me) predicted. Here missed the BP cut with precursors including the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. While it was up for Foreign Film at the Globes, it lost to Emilia Pérez. This could just as easily go for 0 for 3 on Oscar night and I’d say it’s the frontrunner in none of its competitions. The 3 nominations is the second lowest of the 10 hopefuls (ahead of 2 for Nickel Boys). Salles hasn’t been nominated anywhere for his direction and that rarely bodes well for BP viability.

The Verdict:

While I’m Still Here is generating increased visibility, I’d say International Feature Film and not Best Picture is where it could emerge over Pérez (which has faced unwanted headlines in recent days due to Karla Sofia Gascón’s past social media history).

My Case Of posts will continue with Nickel Boys…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave
Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two
Oscars: The Case of Emilia Pérez

Oscars: The Case of Emilia Pérez

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the first half of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez.

The Case for Emilia Pérez:

This multi-genre mashup of music and crime mixed with social commentary has been at the forefront of awards attention since it debuted at Cannes last summer and took the Jury Prize. That’s essentially second place to the Palme d’Or which went to Anora. Pérez landed an Academy ceremony leading 13 nominations including Director, Actress (Karla Sofia Gascón), Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, two in Original Song, and Sound. Precursor nods have been in abundance for BP at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and PGA and Best Ensemble at SAG. Mr. Audiard is in contention at DGA. At the Golden Globes, Pérez beat a field in Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) that included fellow BP nominees Anora, The Substance, and Wicked.

The Case Against Emilia Pérez:

While festival crowds have lauded it, general audiences have not. Pérez sports an 18% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes while the next lowest among the BP hopefuls is The Substance at 75%. If you’re not buying the Tomato measuring accuracy of that stat, the critics aren’t over the moon either. The RT score of 73% is the least of the bunch with the next lowest being A Complete Unknown at 80%. The 71 Metacritic rating is second to bottom with Unknown at 70. There’s also the Netflix factor. The distributor has yet to win Best Picture and that could be due to voter aversion to the giant streaming service. Some believe this was a major factor at the 91st Academy Awards when Green Book took top honors over Roma. The movie with the leading amount of nominations has failed to win BP more often than not in the 21st century (14 out of 24 times). Additionally, I’m Still Here (with its unexpected Pic nom) has emerged as serious competition in International Feature Film where Pérez was seen as the easy frontrunner. Then there’s the events of the last week where Karla Sofia Gascón’s troubling social media posts from a few years back resurfaced. The story has dominated headlines in the trades and beyond and could hinder the frontrunner status it has held with pundits.

The Verdict:

Obviously a lot to unpack here. I have never had Pérez 1st in my BP rankings, but it’s undeniably a major threat to win. I fully understand why many do have it above the others (especially after the Globe victory). Yet for the lengthy information contained above in Case Against, I’m highly hesitant to push the chips in for it.

My Case Of posts will continue with I’m Still Here…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave
Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two

Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the first four features for BP and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The fifth is Dune: Part Two.

The Case for Dune: Part Two:

If the Academy wants to honor one of the most widely seen pics, Dune is second only to Wicked in that particular race. The sci-fi sequel stands at $714 million worldwide compared to Wicked‘s $718 million (and growing). Denis Villeneuve’s epic continuation of Frank Herbert’s novels made the BP cut at PGA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes.

The Case Against Dune: Part Two:

The misses are more glaring. Dune‘s additional Academy nods (Cinematography, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects) bring its total to five compared to the original’s 10. For perspective, part one from 2021 won six golden guys. Villeneuve didn’t get in Best Director (like with its predecessor) and the screenplay isn’t honored. Beyond what the Academy did, Dune failed to get into the BAFTA derby and Villeneuve was snubbed at the Directors Guild (unlike what occurred three years ago).

The Verdict:

In my previous Case Of posts for Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave, I’ve given them all at least a shot at taking the top prize. Dune: Part Two is the first entry where I don’t believe winning is a possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with Emilia Pérez…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave

Oscars: The Case of Conclave

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our fourth hopeful is Conclave.

The Case for Conclave:

Edward Berger’s pulpy papal drama has been considered a top awards player since it debuted at Telluride in September. With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviews are solid enough and it performed decently at the box office (over $30 million) for its genre. It is up for 8 statues including Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. Conclave has scored BP nods everywhere it needs to. It leads the BAFTAs with 12 nominations, is up at Critics Choice and PGA and for Best Ensemble at SAG, and contended at the Golden Globes in Best Drama where it won Best Screenplay. Berger’s behind the camera work also landed a DGA mention.

The Case Against Conclave:

Berger surprisingly missed the cut with the Academy in Best Director. Only three films in the 21st century (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have won BP without its maker being nominated. Berger can’t catch a break with the Academy as his 2022 war epic All Quiet on the Western Front received nine mentions but excluded his direction. The 79 Metacritic score is less than some competitors. It is possible that the only race where its the frontrunner is Adapted Screenplay and possibly Editing. Don’t expect either of its acting nominees to make podium walks. The Brutalist emerged victorious at the Globes in Best Drama.

The Verdict:

The snub of Berger looms large. I’d likely be more optimistic if he hadn’t been left out. Conclave has a slight chance in BP, but I wouldn’t put much faith in it.

My Case Of posts will continue with Dune: Part Two…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown