Category: Oscar: Case Of

Oscar movies

Oscars 2019: The Case of Jojo Rabbit

In my blog series laying out the cases for and against the Oscar nominees in major categories, we arrive at the third picture for consideration. That would be Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit. If you missed the first two posts covering Ford v Ferrari and The Irishman, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/14/oscars-2019-the-case-of-ford-v-ferrari/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/15/oscars-2019-the-case-of-the-irishman/

Let’s hop on it!

The Case for Jojo Rabbit

Viewers who like Jojo REALLY like it. With confusion regarding which handful of contenders like 1917, Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Joker, or The Irishman might win, Jojo could nab enough first place votes to sneak in. The satire that blends wild comedy with pathos is certainly unique and it even has comedy legend Mel Brook singing its praises. Taika Waititi is one of the hottest directors of the moment as he followed up Thor: Ragnarok with this and is now attached to an Akira remake and future Star Wars projects.

The Case Against Jojo Rabbit

Despite Waititi’s popularity, he missed out on a Best Director nomination. He was nominated by the Directors Guild. It’s very rare for the Best Picture winner to not have its maker named in the directing final five. That said, it has happened twice this decade with Argo/Ben Affleck and Green Book/Peter Farrelly. There are box office heavy hitters aplenty in the final nine this year and Jojo isn’t one of them with $22 million currently stateside. The 80% Rotten Tomatoes rating is also on the low end of the scale.

The Verdict

There’s no doubt that Jojo winning would be a major upset, though I would say it’s got the best chance of the pictures where the director isn’t nominated. That still doesn’t change the fact that it would rank 6th of out 9. Still, it’s a wide open year…

Up next in my Case of posts… Joker!

Oscars 2019: The Case of The Irishman

Continuing with my Oscar series outlining the cases for and against nominees in the top six categories, we arrive at Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. This is my second of (gulp) 34 posts for films and individuals picked in the Picture, Director, and the acting races. If you missed yesterday’s writeup about Ford v Ferrari, you can find it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/14/oscars-2019-the-case-of-ford-v-ferrari/

Let’s get to it!

The Case for The Irishman

Scorsese’s latest is an epic unification of screen legends Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci in the genre they’re known best for… the gangster tale. The three and a half hour opus certainly has awards gravitas. It was pegged as a likely nominee from the moment it was announced. Both Pacino and Pesci were named in Supporting Actor and the pic sports 10 nominations, which is tied for second along with 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Scorsese is obviously a legendary figure and this is his ninth effort to get a Picture nod (the only winner being 2006’s The Departed).

The critics have been on its side and it has a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score. Several critics group named it as the year’s best.

The Case Against The Irishman

That attention has not translated to the big awards shows yet. The Golden Globes surprised most when they picked 1917 over this in Best Drama. The Critics Choice Awards chose Hollywood. Some have griped about its length. De Niro, unlike Pacino and Pesci, couldn’t manage a nod with the Globes, SAG, or the Academy. And then there’s the still unsettled notion that the Academy could have a Netflix problem, despite the streamer leading this year’s studios in total number of nominations. In 2018, Roma appeared to be the front runner until that Netflix property lost to Green Book. 

The Verdict

There was little doubt that The Irishman would garner plenty of attention in various categories, including here. Yet viability as a winner is much in question. Scorsese’s latest could still take the top prize, but it appears to be a bit of a long shot at the moment.

Up next in my Case of posts… Jojo Rabbit!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Ford v Ferrari

After months and months of Oscar prognosticating, the nominations came out Monday. So what’s a movie blogger like me to do? Come up with a new feature on the blog!

We are going to call this “The Case of” and up until February 9th (airdate of the ceremony), I will present the case for and against wins for all nine Best Picture nominees and the five individuals in Best Director and all four acting races. Each post will conclude with a verdict on its viability for victory.

Yep, that’s 34 posts in the next few days. Perhaps I’m a glutton for punishment, but we start with the Picture nominees and Ford v Ferrari.

The Case for Ford v Ferrari

It’s a hit! Standing at $111 million currently at the domestic box office, the drama about the 1966 24 Hours of Le Mans race boasts a 92% Rotten Tomatoes score. Featuring the well regarded duo of Matt Damon and Christian Bale, it’s the rare adult skewing pic that’s hit the century mark. Director James Mangold has experience on Oscar night. He directed Angelina Jolie to a Supporting Actress win in 1999’s Girl, Interrupted and Reese Witherspoon to a lead Actress trophy for 2005’s Walk the Line. In 2017, his Logan got an Adapted Screenplay nod.

The Case Against Ford v Ferrari

It’s significant! Of the nine Pictures up, Ford has the least amount of total nominations (4). The other eight have six mentions and up. Ford‘s three other nods are all in tech categories (Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing). No acting, directing, or writing recognition is not a positive sign your movie is going to win Best Picture. In fact, it’s unprecedented.

The Verdict

Of the nine films contending, I would rank Ford v Ferrari in ninth position to win. Many predictors didn’t even have it getting in. Bright side: it does stand legit shots in the three other races where it’s named. So it’s in the mix for technical kudos, but certainly not in the big race.

Up next in my Case of posts… The Irishman!