Oscars 2020: The Case of Nomadland

Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland is next up in my Case Of posts for the 8 Best Picture nominees from the 2020 Oscar season. If you missed my posts on The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, and Minari, you can peruse them here:

Now to the business at hand:

The Case for Nomadland

Since its debut at the Venice Film Festival in September where it won the Golden Lion (the event’s top prize), Nomadland has been a serious contender that has managed to become the favorite. While many prognosticators predicted The Trial of the Chicago 7 would take the Best Drama category at the Golden Globes, Nomadland emerged victorious and it also won the Critics Choice Award recently. Other accolades include the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival and numerous regional critics group selections as the film of 2020. Nomadland tied with five other pics last week with 6 Oscar nominations and it landed in the expected races beyond Picture with Director, Actress (Frances McDormand), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Editing. It is a contender to win them all.

The Case Against Nomadland

Being the frontrunner can be dangerous. It could be argued that the on paper favorites for three of the last ceremonies did not take the gold (2016’s La La Land lost to Moonlight, 2018’s Roma to Green Book, and 2019’s 1917 to Parasite). A narrative could certainly develop where a “surprise” winner (think Minari or Promising Young Woman, as well as the aforementioned Trial) could pose a serious threat.

The Verdict

Betting odds favor Nomadland as it’s done what it needs to be the picture to beat this year. That said, Oscar voters have had a way of recently upending the conventional wisdom.

My Case Of posts will continue with Promising Young Woman…

Oscars 2020: The Case of Minari

My Case of posts for the Best Picture nominees of 2020 continues with fourth entry Minari. If you missed my previous takes on The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Mank, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/03/16/oscars-2020-the-case-of-the-father/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/03/17/oscars-2020-the-case-of-judas-and-the-black-messiah/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/03/18/oscars-2020-the-case-of-mank/

Let’s get to the Sundance sensation!

The Case for Minari

Like its fellow nominees The Father and Promising Young Woman, this American drama about Korean immigrants burst onto the awards scene early in 2020 at the Sundance Film Festival. Minari won the festival’s Grand Jury Prize and Audience Award and has developed staying power throughout the season. On Oscar nomination morning, it tied five other pics with six nods. That includes Director (Lee Isaac Chung), Actor (Steven Yeun), Supporting Actress (Yuh-jung Youn), Original Screenplay, and Score. This is exactly the kind of feel-good crowd pleaser that could be a trendy upset pick over a frontrunner like Nomadland and its stock has seemed to rise in recent weeks.

The Case Against Minari

As mentioned, there is a frontrunner. Additionally, only one Best Picture recipient in nearly four decades missed a Film Editing nod (2014’s Birdman and that was for good reason) so Minari would be seriously going against tradition in that sense.

The Verdict

Minari could go two ways on Oscar evening. This could end up being embraced by voters, following Sundance’s lead with a Picture win and others down the line (Supporting Actress certainly seems doable). Or it could end up going 0 for 6. The latter is more likely, but distributor A24 has done a remarkable job keeping this as an outside contender.

My Case Of posts will continue with Nomadland…

Oscars 2020: The Case of Mank

David Fincher’s Mank marks my third Case Of post weighing the pros and cons of the Best Picture contenders. If you missed my takes on The Father and Judas and the Black Messiah, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/03/16/oscars-2020-the-case-of-the-father/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/03/17/oscars-2020-the-case-of-judas-and-the-black-messiah/

The Case For Mank

With 10 nominations, the Netflix pic easily leads the field in terms of nominations. In fact, it has four more nods than anything else as there are six movies with six mentions. Hollywood loves stories about itself and Fincher is rightfully seen as overdue for Oscar recognition (his previous nominated features are The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Social Network).

The Case Against Mank

Leading the pack isn’t much of a designation when it comes to the ceremony itself. Only three times in the previous decade did the film with the most nominations (or tied for most nods) win Best Picture (2010’s The King’s Speech, 2014’s Birdman, 2017’s The Shape of Water). While the pic managed nominations for Director, Gary Oldman for Actor (winner three years ago for Darkest Hour), and first time contender Amanda Seyfried in Supporting Actress, it missed major races that usually bode well for a Picture win. The most notable omissions are Original Screenplay (for the director’s late father Jack Fincher) and Film Editing. Of the 8 nominees, its 83% Rotten Tomatoes rating is the lowest of the bunch.

The Verdict

You may have noticed the case against Mank is a higher word count than the case for. That’s because Mank, despite its numbers, is an unlikely hopeful for any category besides Production Design.

My Case Of posts will continue with Minari…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDFI6EbEF8c&t=2s

Oscars 2020: The Case of Judas and the Black Messiah

My Case Of posts for the eight Best Picture players arrives at alphabetical entry #2 and that’s Judas and the Black Messiah. If you missed my entry for The Father, you can find it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/03/16/oscars-2020-the-case-of-the-father/

The Case for Judas and the Black Messiah

Like The Father, this Warner Bros/HBO Max drama performed quite well on nomination morning with 6 mentions. In addition to the big race, Judas has two nods in Supporting Actor with Daniel Kaluuya (garnering his second nom after Get Out) and Lakeith Stanfield. Kaluuya is considered the frontrunner. It also got an Original Screenplay slot, which is usually key to serious BP contention. This was one of the later entries in the expanded Oscar calendar (arriving in mid February in theaters and streaming). Voters clearly like what they saw.

The Case Against Judas and the Black Messiah

Also like The Father, Judas missed in some races that usually coincide with a BP victory. Most notable is Best Director (where first timer Shaka King was left out) and Best Film Editing. It also failed to nab a Drama nomination at the Golden Globes.

The Verdict

Judas clearly came on strong late with the Academy, but its misses in significant races and previous precursors make Judas a long shot to win it all.

My Case Of posts will continue with Mank…

Oscars 2020: The Case of The Father

Now that Oscar nominations are out, this evening begins my (gulp) 33 part series outlining the cases for and against the nominees in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I will start with write-ups on the 8 movies recognized and then move to the directing and acting categories. We begin with Florian Zeller’s The Father:

The Case For The Father

The Alzheimer’s drama has been on the awards radar for over a year when it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2020. Sitting at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, it’s actually got the best rating of the pictures in contention. It’s fair to say The Father over performed on nomination morning with 6 mentions, including its two stars Anthony Hopkins (previous winner for The Silence of the Lambs) and Olivia Colman (Best Actress recipient two years back for The Favourite) and Best Adapted Screenplay. The Golden Globes also were very kind with their nods for it.

The Case Against The Father

While it came on strong towards the end with voters, its omission in Best Director for Zeller is a big miss. While not unheard of, it’s very rare for a feature to take the big prize without its filmmaker making it in. The Globes put it in their mix, but it resulted in no victories.

The Verdict

Of the 8 BP hopefuls, I suspect The Father appears most likely to come up completely empty-handed on April 25th.

My Case of posts will continue with Judas and the Black Messiah…

Oscars 2019: The Case of Quentin Tarantino

My Case of posts for major Oscar nominees arrives at the final hopeful in Best Director – Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood:

The Case for Quentin Tarantino

Despite being one of the most famous and influential filmmakers in modern cinematic history, QT has yet to see his film win Best Picture or pick up a Best Director honor. Hollywood is one of his most profitable and accessible ventures with serious star power and a subject that voters love. This could be as much a career achievement award as he was previously nominated for Pulp Fiction and Inglourious Basterds. He won screenplay honors for the former and 2012’s Django Unchained. Added to that – his proclamation that he may only make one more film could speed up the Academy’s time clock.

The Case Against Quentin Tarantino

His potential march to the podium hasn’t played out with precursors as Sam Mendes (1917) has won almost everything. The runner-up in the competition is expected to be Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite, who could also beat out Tarantino in Original Screenplay.

The Verdict

It doesn’t look good for QT’s first direction win… maybe the next (and potentially last) time will be the ticket.

And… my Case of posts have concluded! There’s only one thing left to do… make my FINAL predictions for this Sunday’s Oscars. You can expect that to be up on the blog Friday!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Margot Robbie

My final Case of post in the Supporting Actress race focuses on Margot Robbie’s work in Jay Roach’s Fox News scandal drama Bombshell:

The Case for Margot Robbie

She’s had one heckuva 2019. In addition to her nominated role, she was also in contention for Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood before the attention shifted to Bombshell. The actress was actually a double nominee at the BAFTAs for both pictures. Robbie will go into this weekend with the #1 film in America, reprising her Suicide Squad role in Birds of Prey. This marks her second nod in three years after being recognized in 2017 for I, Tonya.

The Case Against Margot Robbie

Based on precursors, this is definitely Laura Dern’s category to lose. Bombshell itself failed to garner recognition in Picture, Director, or for its screenplay.

The Verdict

Robbie can take solace in having the top movie on Oscar weekend, but it’s unlikely to end with winning one.

My Case of posts will continue with Quentin Tarantino’s direction in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Brad Pitt

My Case of posts for Oscar nominees hits our final nominee in Best Supporting Actor – Brad Pitt for Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood:

The Case for Brad Pitt

One decade after Inglourious Basterds, his first collaboration with Tarantino, Pitt is in the Oscar mix for the fourth time. For his acting that is. His first nod came nearly a quarter century ago in this category for 12 Monkeys and that was followed up by two lead nominations for 2008’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and 2011’s Moneyball. While he is 0 for 3 in the performance department, he does possess an Oscar as a producer on 2013’s Best Picture recipient 12 Years a Slave. It would appear the fourth time is the charm. Pitt has picked up all the significant precursors, including SAG, the Globes, BAFTA, and the Critics Choice. All other nominees here are heavyweights, but Pitt has been the favorite for some time. To add to that, his acceptance speeches over the past few weeks have been wildly entertaining.

The Case Against Brad Pitt

Quite frankly… I’m struggling. He is simply the massive front runner. That said, there have been upsets in recent history in Supporting Actor, including Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) over Sylvester Stallone (Creed) in 2015.

The Verdict

Expect Pitt’s star quality and self deprecation to be on full display when his name is called on Sunday evening.

My Case of posts will continue with Margot Robbie in Bombshell!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Martin Scorsese

My Case of posts for Oscar nominees now focuses on the fourth director profiled – Martin Scorsese for The Irishman:

The Case for Martin Scorsese

One of the most acclaimed filmmakers in cinematic history, Scorsese’s epic Netflix gangster drama marks his ninth nomination for Best Director. Previous nods were for Raging Bull, The Last Temptation of Christ, GoodFellas, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, Hugo, and The Wolf of Wall Street. If you’re wondering why Taxi Driver isn’t among the pictures included, so am I. His only victory came for The Departed and there’s a feeling that Oscar voters have snubbed him in the past. The Irishman pulled in 10 nominations, which is tied for second with 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

The Case Against Martin Scorsese

The Irishman has gone from a Best Picture front runner to a serious long shot. This is thanks mostly to 1917 and Parasite. Therefore the Best Director derby is now seen as a battle between Sam Mendes and Bong Joon-Ho.

The Verdict

Scorsese’s win total will almost certainly be 1/9 after Sunday night as his movie’s hopes have faded in this and other categories.

My Case of posts will continue with Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Renee Zellweger

My Case of posts for thespians competing for Oscars comes to our final Best Actress nominee – Renee Zellweger in Judy:

The Case for Renee Zellweger

She’s one of the comeback stories of the year and in the strong front runner position for this award. This is Zellweger’s fourth nomination, but it’s been awhile. The actress failed to achieve gold for her first two mentions with Bridget Jones’s Diary and Chicago, but the third time was the charm in Supporting Actress with 2003’s Cold Mountain. Her role as Judy Garland has already earned her the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice honors.

The Case Against Renee Zellweger

The film itself drew a mixed reaction from critics. Challengers to Zellweger could point to last year when Glenn Close (The Wife) picked up the same precursors, but was upset on Oscar night by Olivia Colman for The Favourite.

The Verdict

There are some who feel Zellweger could be vulnerable to an upset by either Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) or Charlize Theron (Bombshell). However, there’s no doubt that the smart money is on her to win 16 years after her initial podium trip.

My Case of posts will continue with the direction of Martin Scorsese in The Irishman!

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this: