Category: Oscar: Case Of

Oscar movies

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sentimental Value

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten Best Picture contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the eighth horse in the BP derby and that’s Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent

The Case for Sentimental Value:

The Norwegian drama has been on the Academy’s radar since it took home the Grand Prix (the prize for 2nd) at the Cannes Film Festival in May. It scored a better than anticipated nine nods including four of its cast members -Renate Reinsve in lead Actress, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Supporting Actress, and Stellan Skarsgård in Supporting Actor plus Trier’s direction and original screenplay with Eskil Vogt. The other two mentions are for Film Editing and International Feature Film. It also nabbed BP noms at BAFTA, the Globes, and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Sentimental Value:

In addition to no BP victories at the already aired ceremonies, it has fallen short to The Secret Agent at the Globes and Critics Choice in the foreign field. Value also blanked at the SAG Actor awards. Only one Oscar winner (1995’s Braveheart) has been zeroed out by SAG previously.

The Verdict:

The overperformance of nine noms arguably makes it the favorite over Agent for International Feature Film and Skarsgård (fresh off a Globe win) is considered the frontrunner in his race. Though it could be in the top half of the 10 contenders, Value is not a real threat for the trophy.

My Case Of posts will continue with Sinners…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the seventh movie in the big dance and that’s The Secret Agent from Kleber Mendonça Filho. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another

The Case for The Secret Agent:

Filho’s Brazilian political thriller has become a late bloomer in awards season even though it picked up traction last summer at Cannes where it won Actor (Wagner Moura) and director prizes. Agent was still seen as behind Sentimental Value and It Was Just An Accident in International Feature Film, but then it took the foreign prizes at Critics Choice and the Globes. In addition to BP and the International race, Moura is in for lead Actor and it is up for Casting.

The Case Against The Secret Agent:

Note that in the Case for, I never spoke of it being in serious contention for Best Picture. The four nominations are tied for the lowest of the BP hopefuls with three others. It missed key nods in director and screenplay and other tech categories that usually correlate to a victory. Agent underperformed at BAFTA with only two nominations.

The Verdict:

With Value having an impressive Oscar morning, Agent could fall short in IFF and come up empty-handed at the ceremony. It is not a threat for BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with Sentimental Value…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the sixth contender – Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed my posts covering the previous five nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme

The Case for One Battle After Another:

Since Paul Thomas Anderson’s multi-genre mixup premiered in September, it vaulted to the top of the BP rankings. It impressed with 12 additional nominations – PTA in Director and Adapted Screenplay, Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor), Supporting Actor (Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn), Casting, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound. The precursor love has been strong already with a Best Film (Musical or Comedy) trophy at the Globes and BP victory at Critics Choice. It’s also in contention for SAG Actor Ensemble and highest honors at BAFTA. This is PTA’s fourth title up for BP (the others being There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, and Licorice Pizza) and there could be a feeling that he’s overdue for recognition after 30 years of critically acclaimed projects.

The Case Against One Battle After Another:

Sinners. The fellow Warner Bros release raised eyebrows with a record-breaking 16 nods. That could be hard for the Academy to discount when voting for BP. There was a notable Oscar miss for Teyana Taylor missing the quintet in lead Actress.

The Verdict:

The day before nominations morning, I would have confidently called Battle for the win. The Sinners showing makes it more of a toss-up.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Secret Agent…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the nominee #5 and that’s Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme. If you missed my posts covering the previous four contenders, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet

The Case for Marty Supreme:

Academy voters would be selecting one of the most widely seen nominees (it grossed more than arguable frontrunner One Battle After Another). The sports dramedy amassed a laudable eight additional nods including Safdie’s direction, his Original Screenplay with Ronald Bronstein, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, and Production Design. And of course there’s the nod for Marty himself, Timothée Chalamet, in lead Actor. It has landed BP placement in all noteworthy precursors – the Globes, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, for its ensemble at SAG Actor, and Safdie at DGA.

The Case Against Marty Supreme:

It wasn’t as widely seen as the other arguable frontrunner Sinners. Supreme has yet to get a BP victory anywhere and it was a slight surprise that it missed other acting nominations besides Chalamet (supporting players Gwyneth Paltrow and especially Odessa A’Zion were thought to be possibilities).

The Verdict:

Marty Supreme is reminiscent of Hamnet, my previous Case Of post. It received a bounty of mentions but its best (and probably only) chance at gold is in the lead acting field. For Hamnet, it’s with Jessie Buckley in Actress and with Supreme where the third time could definitely be the charm for Chalamet.

My Case Of posts will continue with One Battle After Another…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the fourth nominee – Hamnet from Chloé Zhao. If you missed my posts covering the previous three contenders, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein

The Case for Hamnet:

Arriving five years after Zhao’s Nomadland took home Best Picture, Director, and Actress, the filmmaker hopes to do the same with this gut-wrenching historical drama. Besides BP, it’s up in 7 other races including Director, Actress (Jessie Buckley), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costume Design, Original Score, and Production Design. The ensemble is nominated at the SAG Actor awards and it made the BP cut at Critics Choice and BAFTA. Perhaps most significantly, it beat out Sinners in a slight upset for Best Drama at the Golden Globes. 3 out of the last BP Academy winners also featured the Best Actress victor and Buckley is definitely the frontrunner.

The Case Against Hamnet:

Despite some decent arguments in the case for, One Battle After Another and Sinners are still seen as the favorites. Hamnet missed some notable competitions at the Oscars – Cinematography, Editing and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal). Even at BAFTA (where it was expected to fare even better), it wasn’t nominated in Cinematography, Editing, or Casting. The Academy could feel they just honored Zhao.

The Verdict:

Buckley is in good shape unless upcoming precursors change the narrative. The movie itself might be in third when it comes to rankings. Despite the Globe win, I’d say it’s a distant third.

My Case Of posts will continue with fifth nominee Marty Supreme…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the third nominee in the biggest race of all and that’s Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein. If you missed my posts covering Bugonia and F1, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1

The Case for Frankenstein:

Del Toro’s dream project, arriving eight years after The Shape of Water won BP and director, amassed an impressive nine nominations. Those additional 8 mentions are Supporting Actor (Jacob Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound. The Netflix production has shown up in significant precursors including SAG Actor ensemble, Critics Choice, PGA, and the Globes. Del Toro is up at DGA and Elordi won Supporting Actor at Critics Choice.

The Case Against Frankenstein:

There are no Picture wins at the aforementioned precursors and it missed the Best Film quintet at BAFTA. The omission from the Brits confirms that Frankenstein is probably 6th among the contending ten. While the nine nominations are noteworthy, Del Toro missing Director and no nod in Film Editing are significant.

The Verdict:

It’s alive in races such as Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Not in Best Picture.

My Case Of posts will continue with Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. If you missed my post covering Bugonia, you can find it linked here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia

The second BP contender is Joseph Kosinski’s F1.

The Case for F1:

If Academy voters wish to honor a nominee that many viewers have seen, F1 is a sensible road considering it made nearly $200 million domestically and $442 million worldwide. The racing drama with Brad Pitt made the top 10 cut for PGA and NBR. F1, from the director of 2022 BP nominee Top Gun: Maverick, was also nominated for Film Editing, Sound, and Visual Effects.

The Case Against F1:

The four total nominations ties three other movies for lowest mentions among the BP ten. F1 wasn’t nominated for the highest honor at the Golden Globes or Critics Choice. It is the only contender without a nomination in directing, screenplay, or any of the acting derbies. If Academy voters wish to honor something that did well at the box office, they have an even more viable option in Sinners.

The Verdict:

F1 is probably 10th out of the 10 possibilities in the largest race though it could manage to pick up gold in Sound.

My Case Of posts will continue with Frankenstein…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The first entry in the biggest race of all is Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos.

The Case for Bugonia:

The latest critically acclaimed multi-genre oddity from Yorgos Lanthimos made the Best Picture cut at the key precursors – Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Producers Guild. Oscar voters clearly like the filmmaker as this is his third feature up for BP (2019’s The Favourite, 2023’s Poor Things).

The Case Against Bugonia:

It has four total nominations. In addition to Picture, there’s Emma Stone in Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Score. That’s tied with three other BP hopefuls for the fewest mentions. There have been no signature victories in previous ceremonies. With four nods, there’s obviously some notable misses including Lanthimos in Director and Jesse Plemons in Actor.

The Verdict:

The Favourite and Poor Things didn’t nab BP, but both of their leading ladies (Olivia Colman and Stone respectively) made podium walks and Things took home some tech prizes. Each of those contending features was in the top 5 of their top 10 BP class. Bugonia is in the bottom 5 and not really a threat to win anything on Oscar night.

My Case Of posts will continue with our second BP nominee, F1…

Oscars: The Case of James Mangold for A Complete Unknown

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our final entry in Best Director and that’s James Mangold for A Complete Unknown. If you missed my posts covering the other nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.

Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for James Mangold:

After a long career with varied projects like Cop Land, Girl Interrupted, Walk the Line, Logan, Ford v Ferrari, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic is his first entry into Best Director. He made the quintet at DGA. The Academy could honor him for the overall body of work.

The Case Against James Mangold:

It hasn’t played out that way in precursors as Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) have been your winners. Mangold additionally didn’t make the cut at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, or Critics Choice.

The Verdict:

Mangold’s first nod will be just that and not a victory.

My Case Of posts have concluded just five days before the 97th Academy Awards. My final predictions for the ceremony will be posted tomorrow…

Oscars: The Case of Sean Baker for Anora
Oscars: The Case of Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez
Oscars: The Case of Coralie Fargeat for The Substance

Oscars: The Case of Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our final entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Jeremy Strong in Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice. If you missed my posts covering the other contenders, they’re linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Jeremy Strong:

As Donald Trump’s attorney and fixer Roy Cohn, Strong flexed his acting muscle and it resulted in nominations at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG Awards.

The Cast Against Jeremy Strong:

He missed the cut at Critics Choice. Most importantly, Strong’s Succession costar Kieran Culkin has swept the season with his performance in A Real Pain.

The Verdict:

There will be almost certainly be a Succession actor winning Supporting Actor on Sunday night. It almost certainly will not be Strong.

My Case Of posts will conclude with the final hopeful in Best Director and that’s James Mangold for A Complete Unknown…

Oscars: The Case of Yura Borisov in Anora
Oscars: The Case of Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Oscars: The Case of Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Guy Pearce in The Brutalist