Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

November 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update II (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.

**Blogger’s Update (11/07): It turns out Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is indeed staying in theaters and I’m putting it in second with an anticipated drop in the mid 30s

The Marvel Cinematic Universe should have no trouble hitting #1 again with The Marvels, but the premiere is expected to be well on the low end of the now 33 pics in the franchise. We also have the faith-based musical Journey to Bethlehem and the wide expansion of Oscar hopeful The Holdovers out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

The Marvels Box Office Prediction
Journey to Bethlehem Box Office Prediction
The Holdovers Box Office Prediction

As of now, I have The Marvels having the third lowest MCU opening in its decade and a half run. It could possibly have the smallest of them all if it debuts below the $55 million that The Incredible Hulk (the second feature of the bunch) started with in 2008. **Keep an eye on this post through Thursday to see if my projection dwindles.

Five Nights at Freddy’s, after two weeks atop the charts, should slide to second. Its sophomore frame saw a gigantic plummet (more on that below). The third weekend shouldn’t be as dramatic a fall, but the 60-65% range is certainly possible.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, per a previous announcement, is allegedly finished with its box office run after amassing $166 million domestically and easily setting concert pic records. That’s why you won’t find it in my projected five. If that dynamic changes, I’d place it in third or probably even second.

The 3-5 spots, therefore, should be a mix of Killers of the Flower Moon, Journey to Bethlehem, and The Holdovers and you could make decent arguments for the order. I’ve got it close.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Marvels

Predicted Gross: $46.3 million

2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

3. Five Nights at Freddy’s

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

4. Journey to Bethlehem

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

6. The Holdovers

Predicted Gross: $3 million

Box Office Results (November 3-5)

November began with a whimper with the worst frame of 2023 thus far. As you may recall, this was the weekend Dune: Part Two was supposed to come out before its pushback to spring 2024.

That left Five Nights at Freddy’s in first place despite a gargantuan 76% drop to $19 million. I was more generous at $27.6 million. Even with its clearly front loaded business, the PG-13 horror flick (which is also available on Peacock) has delivered $113 million in its first ten days of release.

With scant competition in the marketplace, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour eased just 12% for second place with $13.5 million. That remarkable hold placed it well above my $8.3 million take. As mentioned, it has finished (?) its run at $166 million as streamers mount a bidding war for the rights.

Killers of the Flower Moon also held better than I figured for third in its third weekend with $6.8 million. I went with $5.8 million. The Oscar contender has taken in $52 million.

Priscilla performed respectably in fourth with $5 million, besting my $3.9 million call. The biopic had a similar per theater average to Ms. Swift’s fourth frame gross. The performance represents earnings at the top end of its anticipated range.

I incorrectly didn’t make a call for Radical, the well-reviewed dramedy with Eugenio Derbez. It rounded out the top five with $2.6 million on just over 400 screens. That gave it the highest average of any movie in the top ten.

My #5 pick was After Death at $3.2 million. Yet it was all the way down in 8th (behind The Exorcist: Believer and PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie) with $2 million after its 60% slide.

Finally, I had the Meg Ryan rom com What Happens Later (a phrase not used in many years) making $1.7 million. It came in slightly below that at $1.5 million for ninth position.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Holdovers Box Office Prediction

After playing the festival circuit at Telluride and Toronto and generating impressive grosses in limited release, The Holdovers expands on November 10th. The dramedy reunites director Alexander Payne with his Sideways lead Paul Giamatti. The supporting cast includes Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dominic Sessa, and Carrie Preston.

With a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score, the pic is hoping to score a handful of nominations come Oscar time. This past weekend, The Holdovers posted an estimated $600,000 on 64 screens for a nearly $10k venue average.

A theater count in the 800 range is expected this frame. If The Holdovers can manage an average of around $4k, that would give it around $3 million and that’s what I’m counting on.

The Holdovers opening weekend expansion prediction: $3 million

For my The Marvels prediction, click here:

The Marvels Box Office Prediction

For my Journey to Bethlehem prediction, click here:

Journey to Bethlehem Box Office Prediction

Journey to Bethlehem Box Office Prediction

Production company Affirm Films is hoping faith-based viewers make a destination trip to Journey to Bethlehem on November 10th. The live-action musical marks the directorial debut of Adam Anders with a cast including Fiona Palomo, Milo Manheim, Lecrae, and Antonio Banderas.

Slated to open on approximately 1800 screens, Bethlehem is a tricky one to project. Pics catering to a Christian audience can certainly rise above expectations. Yet I suspect this one (if it gets solid word-of-mouth) could play steadily throughout the holiday season and maybe not post an overly impressive opening.

Recent Affirm titles include Big George Foreman, Overcomer, and Paul, Apostle of Christ. None of them opened to over $10 million. I’ll project this doesn’t either and it may not make half of that, but we’ll say how it legs out.

Journey to Bethlehem opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million

For my The Marvels prediction, click here:

The Marvels Box Office Prediction

For my The Holdovers prediction, click here:

The Holdovers Box Office Prediction

What Happens Later Box Office Prediction

Meg Ryan may have a spot on the rom com Mt. Rushmore with classics like When Harry Met Sally…, Sleepless in Seattle, and You’ve Got Mail. A quarter century plus following those titles, Ryan is back in the genre she’s most known for with What Happens Later on November 3rd. It marks her second feature behind the camera and her first appearance onscreen in eight years. The two-hander finds her stranded at an airport with her ex (David Duchovny).

The Bleecker Street production is slated for just under 1500 screens this weekend. That severely hinders its potential. Frankly, so does the fact that many viewers of a younger age simply aren’t as familiar with the director’s filmography. Originally scheduled for October 13, it was pushed to early November to avoid a certain concert pic from Taylor Swift.

Even hardcore fans wanting to see Ryan’s return to this territory may choose to wait for streaming options. With the limited output, topping $2 million could be an achievement.

What Happens Later opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million

For my Priscilla prediction, click here:

Priscilla Box Office Prediction

The Marvels Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.

After a series of delays dating back to summer 2022, the MCU’s 33rd adventure arrives November 10th with The Marvels. Nia DaCosta, best known for her 2021 Candyman remake, directs. Captain Marvel Brie Larson leads a cast that includes Teyonah Parris, Iman Vellani, Zawe Ashton, Park Seo-joon, and Samuel L. Jackson.

Beginning with Spider-Man: No Way Home, we’ve seen a run of six MCU pics that opened to $100 million or over. It certainly helped that each one of them was a sequel in a well-established sub franchise including Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor, and Black Panther.

The nine digit premiere streak should end here and the debut may look more like a trilogy of titles from 2021. Black Widow started with $80 million in the summer of that year and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings did $75 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of its Labor Day weekend bow. Finally, Eternals managed $71 million in November.

Two years later, I’m not confident The Marvels even matches those grosses. Other than Captain Marvel and Jackson’s Nick Fury, the other characters are relatively unknown compared to various Avengers counterparts. There’s always the risk of superhero overload and we’ve seen our share of letdowns in the genre in 2023 (The Flash, Blue Beetle, Shazam! Fury of the Gods). Yes, those were all DCU, but the subpar earnings could apply here.

I’m projecting The Marvels will have the lowest MCU beginning since Ant-Man ($57 million) back in 2015. That would be a rather significant letdown for Marvel in their third feature from Phase Five and the third smallest opening overall of the 33 picture series.

The Marvels opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million

For my Journey to Bethlehem prediction, click here:

Journey to Bethlehem Box Office Prediction

For my The Holdovers prediction, click here:

The Holdovers Box Office Prediction

November 3-5 Box Office Predictions

After a record breaking Halloween opening at the box office, Five Nights at Freddy’s will have no trouble dominating the charts again as November arrives. The only wide release is the expansion of biopic Priscilla from Sofia Coppola. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Priscilla Box Office Prediction

While it played went well in limited release this weekend, Priscilla probably won’t impress as it goes nationwide. I’m projecting it at the lower end of its range for what could be a fourth or fifth place showing (depending on the second weekend drop for faith-based doc After Death).

Freddy’s is ready to easily be 1st again after its massive start (more on that below). It’s a reasonable assumption that its earnings will be quite front loaded. A mid 60s to even high 60s decline wouldn’t be a surprise, but that would still give it a second frame atop the landscape due to scant competition.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour and Killers of the Flower Moon (following a disappointing sophomore performance) should retain their spots in second and third. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Five Nights at Freddy’s

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. Priscilla

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

5. After Death

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (October 27-29)

Based on the hugely successful series of video games, Five Nights at Freddy’s obliterated the previous best Halloween weekend of all time. It was held by 2011’s Puss in Boots with $34 million. Freddy’s more than doubled that mark with an astonishing $80 million. That’s good for the third highest horror start in history after It and its sequel. It bested my $68.3 million prediction and that’s all the more impressive considering it premiered simultaneously on Peacock.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, after its own record setting two weeks on top, fell to second with $15.4 million. That’s a tad more than my $14.2 million take as it’s up to $150 million domestically.

Killers of the Flower Moon, despite great reviews and Oscar buzz, fell a troubling 60% in its second outing with $9.3 million. I assumed it would hold up much better at $13.4 million. The subpar ten-day tally (especially considering a $200 million budget) is $40 million.

I mistakenly left After Death out of top five. The documentary from Angel Studios (the company behind the unexpected summer smash Sound of Freedom) was fourth with $5 million.

The Exorcist: Believer rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $3.5 million) for $59 million in four weeks.

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was sixth with $2.3 million (I went with $2.9 million) for five week earnings of $59 million as well.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 27-29 Box Office Predictions

Based on the hugely popular series of video games, the PG-13 horror flick Five Nights at Freddy’s looks to dominate the Halloween frame. It is the only wide release as October draws to a close and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Five Nights at Freddy’s Box Office Prediction

There is a wide range of possibility for Freddy’s and I think it is ready for a debut just north of $60 million. That would easily top the rest of the top five combined.

The battle for the runner-up spot will be decided by the respective third and second weekend drops for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour and Killers of the Flower Moon. The former had an understandable mid 6os plummet as Swifties wanted to rush out and see it immediately. Moon hopes for smallish declines in the frames ahead. I have Ms. Swift edging Killers as her concert film enters its third and final outing in multiplexes.

The Exorcist: Believer should be fourth with PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie rounding out the top five. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Five Nights at Freddy’s

Predicted Gross: $68.3 million

2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. The Exorcist: Believer

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

5. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (October 20-22)

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour belonged at #1 again as the record-setting concert experience drew another $33.2 million, a tad under my $35.6 million projection. That gives it a two weekend take of $131 million.

Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon came in at the bottom end of its expected range with $23.2 million. I was more generous at $32.7 million. While not a flop (especially considering it was first slated for an Apple TV streaming start), it is underwhelming considering the awards buzz, Leo star power, and $200 million reported budget. The Oscar hopeful will hope to leg out during November.

The Exorcist: Believer was third with $5.6 million compared to my $6.9 million forecast. The three-week total is a fair $54 million.

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie sat in the four spot with $4.4 million (I said $4.7 million) for $56 million after four frames.

Rounding out the top five was a holiday themed re-release of 1993’s The Nightmare Before Christmas on its 30th anniversary. The Tim Burton produced classic added another $4.2 million to its coffers. I failed to put it in the mix.

That took Saw X out of the high five in sixth with $3.6 million (I went with $4.1 million). The four-week gross is $47 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Five Nights at Freddy’s Box Office Prediction

Universal and Blumhouse are banking on a big financial delivery for Five Nights at Freddy’s when it debuts October 27th. Based on a massively popular video game series that began in 2014, the PG-13 horror pic comes from director Emma Tammi. The cast includes Josh Hutcherson, Elizabeth Lail, Piper Rubio, Mary Stuart Masterson, and Matthew Lillard.

The fanbase for the games should be hungry to watch this immediately. Rather surprisingly, Freddy’s will also be available same day on Peacock (much like the recent Halloween trilogy from the same studio). That could eat into the theatrical earnings as some viewers may prefer to make it a Halloween weekend couch experience.

I still think taking the over is probably wise and that might mean a start in the mid to high 60s range.

Five Nights at Freddy’s opening weekend prediction: $68.3 million

October 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/18): And it’s a big one… by lowering my projection of Killers from $38.7 million to $32.7 million, that puts Eras at #1 for the second weekend in a row.

Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio’s sixth collaboration faces off against Taylor Swift’s second cinematic touring weekend as Oscar hopeful Killers of the Flower Moon blossoms on Friday. It could shape up to be a close battle for the top spot. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Killers here:

Killers of the Flower Moon Box Office Prediction

With rave reviews and awards buzz, Moon could fill multiplexes up with adult moviegoers who turned Oppenheimer into a smash hit over the summer. While it won’t reach as high, I believe a low 30s premiere is certainly doable.

Whether that puts it in first is a huge question mark. That’s because the sophomore frame of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is tricky to figure out. The concert doc didn’t reach the lofty expectations that kept rising prior to its start (more on that below). Yet it still scored a massive debut that set every record possible for its genre. The deal that Ms. Swift cut with theaters is a unique one, to say the least. Eras is not playing on Mondays, Tuesdays, or Wednesdays. That could certainly increase the demand during the second weekend. However, it probably goes without saying that its gross is likely to be front loaded due to her fans rushing out to see it (a whole bunch of its business came from presales). I’ll be honest. I’m at a loss for how far it dips coming up. I will speculate high 60s to possibly low 70s and that would put it just behind my Killers estimate.

Holdover sequels of the horror and family variety should fill the 3-5 slots as The Exorcist: Believer, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, and Saw X look to post decent holds in the 30s-low 40s range.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Predicted Gross: $35.6 million

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Gross: $32.7 million

3. The Exorcist: Believer

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

4. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. Saw X

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

Box Office Results (October 13-15)

It isn’t often that Taylor Swift doesn’t reach the levels of financial success that are anticipated, but it might have been a case of expectations being too sky high. The Eras Tour was projected to top the all-time October weekend record held by Joker at $96 million. I had it doing so with room to spare at $139.6 million. It wasn’t to be as it achieved the second largest debut at $92.8 million. By the way, that triples the previous best concert doc start held by Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour. In other words, it’s still a rather remarkable performance.

The Exorcist: Believer dropped to second with an understandable $10.9 million, a bit above my $9.7 million take. The direct sequel to the 1973 classic sits at $44 million after ten days as it hopes for meager declines as we approach Halloween.

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was third with $6.8 million (on pace with my $6.6 million forecast) for $49 million after three weeks.

Saw X reaped the benefit of horror fans looking for a scare. Dropping just 28%, Jigsaw and company took in $5.6 million compared to my $4.1 million prediction. Total is $41 million thus far.

The Creator rounded out the top five at $4.3 million (I said $3.5 million) for a three-week tally of just $32 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Killers of the Flower Moon Box Office Prediction

After a Cannes Film Festival premiere in May that instantly turned it into a major awards contender, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon shines down on theaters October 20th. It marks the legendary filmmaker’s sixth collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio and tenth with Robert De Niro. Lily Gladstone is third lead and she’s generating Oscar buzz along with her aforementioned costars. The supporting cast includes Jesse Plemons, Tantoo Cardinal, John Lithgow, and Brendan Fraser.

Based on David Grann’s 2017 novel, the reported $200 million production was picked up by Apple TV. They chose to go the theatrical route with the three and a half hour epic (Scorsese’s predecessor The Irishman went straight to Netflix).

This summer, adults turned out in full force for Oppenheimer (as in close to a billion worldwide). A lot of moviegoers who made the trek to see Christopher Nolan’s potential Best Picture winner do the same with this potential BP recipient. My forecast puts in the upper region of its expected range. That would be close to $30-35 million and don’t be shocked if it gets past that.

Killers of the Flower Moon opening weekend prediction: $32.7 million