John Woo’s Silent Night hopes to make a little noise for Lionsgate when it opens December 1st. It marks the filmmaker’s first American feature in 20 years (since the 2003 Ben Affleck flop Paycheck). Joel Kinnaman, Scott Mescudi, Harold Torres, and Catalina Sandino Moreno star in the dialogue free action thriller.
We are a quarter century past when Woo was a blockbuster making commodity, including hits like Face/Off and Mission: Impossible 2. With a lack of star power, Silent may play to sparse venues.
I have a tough time envisioning this getting to $10 million and it faces direct competition from Godzilla Minus One. Mid single digits seems likely for a calm and quiet debut.
Silent Night opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
For my Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé prediction, click here:
With a similar distribution deal to what Taylor Swift cut with AMC Theaters last month, Queen Bey brings her world tour to the multiplexes on December 1st with the release of Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé. The documentary concert pic hopes to capture a fraction of what Ms. Swift took in ($175 million thus far domestically).
No matter what happens, the performer will see lots of dough since (like Swift) she’ll receive 50% of the gross. That said, while Beyoncé is obviously a beloved international superstar, Renaissance will be fortunate to bring in a third of what The Eras Tour accomplished for its start. The Swifties propelled Eras to a record breaking $92.8 million premiere.
Anything over $30 million should be considered a tremendous debut. Even a low to mid 20s start could put it in the #1 spot to start off December at the box office (depending on where Wish and other Thanksgiving leftovers are at). I’ll say this falls in that range.
Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million
The Thanksgiving box office gives us two high-profile releases mixed with the leftovers as Disney’s Wish and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon come out Wednesday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The Mouse House certainly wishes that Wish was getting better reviews and word-of-mouth. That said, the studio should have no trouble nabbing the top spot over the holiday frame. I’ve got the three-day in the low 30s and five-day in the mid 40s.
Napoleon with Joaquin Phoenix as the military leader is also generating so-so buzz. It is a viable option for adults looking a Turkey Day frame trip to the multiplex. A high teens Friday to Sunday might leave it in fourth position with a five-day approaching $30 milion.
After a premiere in the lower end of its anticipated range, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes may ease 50-55% in its sophomore outing. That might mean a drop to third as Trolls Band Together should see a more meager slide (20-25%) in its second weekend and stay in the runner-up spot.
Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving could capitalize on its name and have a smaller than normal decline for its genre. If it eases 40% or so, it should round out the high five as The Marvels might not make the top quintet (more on its poor performance below).
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Wish
Predicted Gross: $32.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.4 million
2. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
3. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Predicted Gross: $2o.3 million
4. Napoleon
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million
5. Thanksgiving
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Results (November 17-19)
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, as expected, ruled the charts like its predecessors. Yet it came in considerably below the four entries it prequels. While parts I-IV from 2012-15 all opened to more than $100 million, Ballad managed $44.6 million (a touch under my $48.3 million projection). It’s not a disaster considering the reported $100 million budget, but it’s definitely not a shining victory.
Trolls Band Together opened in second with a solid $30 million, surpassing my $26.7 million take. The DreamWorks Animated threequel should hold up well during the holiday season.
Thanksgiving cut a $10.3 million gross for third place as the fake trailer turned feature came in just behind my $11.4 million forecast. Not too shabby as the budget is listed at $12.6 million.
The Marvels fell from first to fourth with a disastrous second weekend after a disastrous first. The MCU bomb (first time you’ve ever heard it) plummeted 78% to $10.1 million. I was more kind at $15.6 million. With $64 million in the bank after 10 days, it’s questionable whether Captain Marvel and her friends even reach $100 million domestically.
Five Nights at Freddy’s rounded out the top five with $3.5 million (I said $4.5 million) to brings its four-week total to $132 million.
Finally, Taika Waititi’s oft-delayed sports dramedy Next Goal Wins couldn’t find an audience. It was 8th with $2.5 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a great Thanksgiving!
After two decades plus, Ridley Scott reunites with Gladiator thespian Joaquin Phoenix in Napoleon. It rolls out November 22nd over the long holiday weekend. The historical epic about the legendary French commander costars Vanessa Kirby and Tahar Rahim. The Apple TV production is exclusive to theaters.
Once seen as an Oscar hopeful, the review embargo pretty much shut that down (save for perhaps some tech nods) as it stands at 61% on Rotten Tomatoes. With reactions all over the map (including a few which say it works best as a comedy), Napoleon will attempt to stand apart as an option for adults looking for Thanksgiving entertainment.
That strategy could mean a three-day gross in the high teens to low 20s as it hopes for $30 million or higher from Wednesday to Sunday. I’ll put Napoleon just short of that and certainly stronger than Scott’s 2021 box office bomb The Last Duel.
Napoleon opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Blogger’s Update (11/20): Middling reviews have led to a downgrade in my estimate to low 30s for the three-day and mid 40s for the five.
Disney seeks a return to a Thanksgiving tradition by having an animated offering in the top spot with the release of Wish on November 22nd. Chris Buck (who co-helmed the Frozen features) and Fawn Veerasunthorn direct with a voice cast including Ariana DeBose, Chris Pine, Alan Tudyk, Angelique Cabral, Victor Garber, Harvey Guillén, Evan Peters, Ramy Youssef, and Jon Rudnitsky.
The musical fantasy would love to replicate the performance of the Frozen entries, but would certainly settle for the earnings of pre-COVID Turkey weekend offerings. In 2016, Moana opened to $56 million from Friday to Monday and $82 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday of the holiday frame. Coco in 2017 started off with $50 million over the three-day and $72 million for the five-day. In 2018, Ralph Breaks the Internet took in $56 million from Friday to Monday and $84 million over the extended holiday.
On the other hand, the Mouse House wants to avoid a Good Dinosaur level performance from 2015. It made $39 million for the three-day and $55 million with the extras.
My hunch is that Wish is granted a performance closest to Coco levels while not quite reaching those figures. I’ll project a mid to high 40s output over the regular weekend and mid to high 60s when factoring in those extra days when kiddos are out of school.
Wish opening weekend prediction: $32.2 million (Friday to Monday); $46.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
A quartet of new titles enter the pre-Thanksgiving frame marketplace with prequel The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes expected to lead the way and DreamWorks Animation’s threequel Trolls Band Together in the runner-up spot. We also have Eli Roth’s slasher flick Thanksgiving and Taika Waititi’s sports dramedy Next Goal Wins out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
All four Hunger Games titles (released from 2012-15) debuted to over $100 million, but that streak is sure to end with Songbirds. It may only fly to around $50 million and I’ve got it achieving just a smidge under that.
Barring a significant Hunger underperformance, Trolls should settle for #2 in the mid 20s as it hopes to leg out impressively in future holiday weekends.
The Marvels experienced a historically low start for an MCU offering (more on that below). With a weak B Cinemascore grade, it could be headed for a catastrophic fall in the mid 60s or more in its sophomore frame (similar to The Flash this summer). That’s not the comparison it wanted and it likely means a third place showing.
I’ll say Thanksgiving carves up a little over $10 million and that would put it in fourth. The news is bleaker for the frequently delayed Next Goal Wins as it failed to generate awards buzz on the fest circuit and seems to have little heat attached to it. I’m putting it in sixth behind Five Nights at Freddy’s in weekend #4.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Predicted Gross: $48.3 million
2. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $26.7 million
3. The Marvels
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
4. Thanksgiving
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. Next Goal Wins
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (November 10-12)
It was indeed the worst of times for the Marvel Cinematic Universe as The Marvels had the lowest debut of all 33 franchise entries dating back to the summer of 2008. Captain Marvel and team made off with a mere $46.1 million, right on pace with my $46.3 million (my projection kept dwindling in the week leading up to its premiere). That’s the worst MCU kickoff by a pretty wide margin as the previous record was held by 2008’s The Incredible Hulk at $55 million. A series that once seemed indestructible is no longer as comic book movies have had a tough 2023 in multiplexes. As mentioned, the B Cinemascore indicates crowds aren’t digging the product.
Five Nights at Freddy’s, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $8.9 million (a bit ahead of my $7.4 million take). The three-week tally is up to $127 million.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour was third with $6 million as took a heftier drop (over 50%) that I figured in its fifth weekend. The record setting concert pic total is $172 million.
In a surprising development, Priscilla was fourth in its sophomore go-round. The biopic increased its theater count and fell only 5% to $4.7 million for $12 million overall. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
Killers of the Flower Moon was fifth with $4.5 million in weekend four. My guess? $4.5 million for $59 million in the bank.
The Holdovers expanded to nearly 800 screens and the Oscar hopeful made $3.2 million for sixth (I said $3 million).
Finally, faith-based musical Journey to Bethlehem got off to a rougher journey than I forecasted. It was seventh with $2.4 million and I thought it would double that figure with $4.8 million.
On November 17th, the true life sports dramedy Next Goal Wins finally kicks it in theaters after numerous delays. Filmed about four years ago, Taika Waititi directs with Michael Fassbender (currently pulling double duty in David Fincher’s The Killer on Netflix) as a down of his luck soccer coach assigned to American Samoa. Costars include Oscar Kightley, Kaimana, David Fane, Rachel House, Beulah Koale, Will Arnett, and Elisabeth Moss. Arnett’s parts, by the way, were reshot after the studio replaced Armie Hammer with him.
Unlike the filmmaker’s Jojo Rabbit from 2019, Goal did not generate any awards buzz after it hit the festival circuit. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a blah 51% as it arrives during the increasingly crowded November season.
It certainly seems like this will get lost in the shuffle and I’m not even confident this earns $5 million for its start.
Next Goal Wins opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:
Sony is hoping there is leftover goodwill from a mock trailer 16 years ago when Thanksgiving arrives in theaters November 17th. The slasher film is from Eli Roth and back in 2007, he helmed a fake ad for Thanksgiving at the beginning of Grindhouse. As you’ll recall, Roth shot half of that movie via Planet Terror while Quentin Tarantino was responsible for Death Proof.
The feature length scare fest stars Patrick Dempsey, Addison Rae, Milo Manheim, Jalen Thomas Brooks, Rick Hoffman, and Gina Gershon. The Black Friday set tale is out a week before the holiday. It could be a stretch that mass audiences will want gore with their turkey. Another demerit could be the fact that Grindhouse simply isn’t very well-known (it didn’t reach near the box office levels of Tarantino’s normal offerings).
Thanksgiving might be fortunate to serve up double digits and I’ll project it falls just over that mark.
Thanksgiving opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:
The computer animated creatures that first hit the screen seven years ago are back again in Trolls Band Together on November 17th. The DreamWorks musical comedy comes from Walt Dohrn, who co-directed the 2016 original and solely helmed the 2020 sequel. Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, Zooey Deschanel, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Icona Pop, Anderson Paak, Ron Funches, Kenan Thompson, and Kunal Nayyar reprise their vocal roles. They are joined by Eric André, Kid Cudi, Daveed Diggs, Camila Cabello, Amy Schumer, and RuPaul.
Featuring tracks from Kendrick and Cabello and the first NSYNC track in over two decades, Together hopes to bring in a large crowd. The first Trolls opened to a better than expected $46 million with an eventual $153 million domestic haul. Yet any clues for sequel demand were made complicated by follow-up Trolls World Tour. It went the VOD route due to coming out in April 2020 as movie theaters were shuttered by the COVID pandemic. There are estimates that it took in around $150 million in rentals.
Where does that leave our third song and dance fest? I certainly think this won’t match the mid 40s debut from 2016. This seems likely to start slower though it could have a healthy hold in its second frame over the long Thanksgiving weekend.
I’ll say mid to high 20s to possibly low 30s is where this Band begins as it hopes for pleasing encores over the holidays.
Trolls Band Together opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million
For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:
Serving as a prequel to the four films that generated nearly $3 billion worldwide, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is out November 17th. The dystopian adventure returns Francis Lawrence (who made the second through fourth editions) to the director’s seat. Tom Blyth (as a younger version of Donald Sutherland’s Snow), Rachel Zegler, Peter Dinklage, Hunter Schafer, Josh Andrés Rivera, Jason Schwartzman, and Viola Davis lead the cast.
Arriving eight years after Jennifer Lawrence’s Katniss concluded her boffo business, Snakes is expected to have the lowest start of the Games… by a wide margin. Based on the 2020 novel from Suzanne Collins, this series may not be the phenomenon that it was onscreen from 2012-15. That quartet of titles all made over $100 million during their opening weekends with 2013’s Catching Fire setting the high mark at $158 million.
Early word-of-mouth is pretty decent, but this may earn about half of what 2015’s Mockingjay: Part 2 accomplished out of the gate ($102 million). If you’re setting the over/under at $50 million (which is reasonable), I’d suggest the under (if not by much).
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes opening weekend prediction: $48.3 million
For my Trolls Band Together prediction, click here:
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