Sydney Sweeney is in Scream Queen mode when Immaculate is delivered to theaters on March 22nd. The fright fest finds the Euphoria, Anyone but You, and Madame Web star as a devout nun uncovering demonic happenings in the Italian countryside. Michael Mohan directs with a supporting cast including Álvaro Morte, Benedetta Porcaroli, Dora Romano, Giorgio Colangeli, and Simona Tabasco.
The Neon distributed effort is generating uneven reviews (it premiered at South by Southwest earlier this week). The RT meter stands at 64%. I haven’t seen a screen count and the marketing campaign seems a bit on the underwhelming side.
Horror can exceed expectations and that might hold true with Immaculate. Yet I wonder if this can manage the $9M+ that The Pope’s Exorcist achieved for its start last year. It might be lucky to earn half of that.
Immaculate opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million
For my Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire prediction, click here:
Arriving almost 40 years after the classic original, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire looks to heat up multiplexes on March 22nd. The fifth feature in the franchise serves as a sequel to 2021’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife with Gil Kenan taking over directorial duties from Jason Reitman (the pair cowrote the script together). Paul Rudd, Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace, Celeste O’Connor, and Logan Kim reprise their roles alongside OG cast members Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, Ernie Hudson, Annie Potts, and William Atherton. Newcomers to the series include Kumail Nanjiani and Patton Oswalt.
Originally slated for December of last year, Empire looks to exceed or match the grosses of Afterlife. Nearly two and a half years ago, it started off with $44 million and eventual domestic earnings of $129 million. That is right on pace with 2016’s ballyhooed reboot with Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig which premiered to $46 million and $128 million overall.
2021’s version proved the franchise still has some juice. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if this earns slightly less due to Afterlife‘s middling critical reception and audience reaction that wasn’t totally over the moon. Low 40s sounds about right.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire opening weekend prediction: $42.7 million
After posting the highest PTA of any 2024 title thus far, the erotic thriller Love Lies Bleeding expands wide this weekend. Marking Rose Glass’s sophomore directorial effort behind her acclaimed horror pic Saint Maud, Kristen Stewart and Katy O’Brian headline with Ed Harris, Jena Malone, Anna Baryshnikov, and Dave Franco in support.
Bleeding first dropped at Sundance with general acclaim and it now holds a 91% RT score. In only five coastal venues, it took in $167k to nab that aforementioned best average.
Yet rolling out nationally could be a different story. Playing well in L.A. and NYC is not surprising. What’s in between could be a challenge. I’m assuming 1200 screens and if I get new information, that could alter this forecast. My projection likely puts it just outside this weekend’s top 5.
Love Lies Bleeding opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Lionsgate is hoping for some doggone solid returns when Arthur the King debuts March 15th. Based on the real life tale of an adventure racing team who pick up a wounded hound on their trek, Mark Wahlberg heads the cast with Simon Cellan Jones (who recently directed the lead in The Family Plan) behind the camera. Costars include Simu Liu, Juliet Rylance, Nathalie Emmanuel, Ali Suliman, Paul Guilfoyle, and Bears Grylls (as Bear Grylls).
Canine content can exceed expectations at multiplexes. Channing Tatum’s directorial debut Dog took in nearly $15 million in February 2022. That could be a fair comp and there’s where I have it getting pretty close to.
Arthur the King opening weekend prediction: $12.5 million
Kung Fu Panda 4 will attempt to kick Dune: Part Two out of the top spot this weekend and we also have Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary and faith-based biopic Cabrini debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
I am estimating that DreamWorks Animation’s Panda franchise will continue its downward trend with a high 30s start after the longest layoff between entries.
If that occurs, that likely means a 2nd place showing behind the sophomore frame of Dune: Part Two. That hotly anticipated sequel opened right in line with expectations (more on that below) and had an A Cinemascore grade. Some of its business is understandably frontloaded, but its drop could hold up sturdier than other genre fare in the high 40s to low 50s range.
Blumhouse should have another profitable fright fest with Imaginary considering its reported low budget. However, I don’t envision it premiering anywhere near the studio’s biggest earners. A low double digits gross could put it in third.
That’s unless Cabrini overperforms and it’s the weekend wild car in my view. Coming from Angel Studios and the director of last summer’s smash Sound of Freedom, this could surprise if faith-based crowds turn out in force. On the other hand, Angel’s follow-ups like After Death and The Shift have only managed mid single digits out of the gate. I’m splitting the difference and forecasting a fourth place finish.
Finally, Bob Marley: One Love should round out the top five as it attempts to reach $100 million domestically.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $40.7 million
2. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $38.1 million
3. Imaginary
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. Cabrini
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (March 1-3)
I had Dune: Part Two doubling the debut of its 2021 predecessor and that’s precisely what occurred. The sequel, which landed even better reviews than the heavily Oscar nominated original, took in $82.5 million. That’s in line with my $83.6 million prediction and just over what Oppenheimer premiered with last summer. Christopher Nolan’s biopic (which is about to be crowned Best Picture) experienced only a 43% second weekend decline. As mentioned, Dune‘s should be more, but perhaps not by too much.
After two weeks in first, Bob Marley: One Love was second with $7.4 million and that’s right on target with my $7.5 million call. That biopic now stands at $82 million after three weeks.
Ordinary Angels remained in third with $3.8 million, falling shy of my $4.9 million projection. The faith-based drama with Hilary Swank has $12 million in its coffers after two weeks.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $2.9 million). Since its Leap Day Thursday opening, the total is $4 million.
Finally, superheroine flop Madame Web was fifth with $3.1 million (I said $2.9 million) for a mere $40 million in its three frames of release.
Angel Studios is hoping that audiences of the faith-based variety flock to Cabrini this weekend. The tale of Italian immigrants in late 19th century New York comes from Alejandro Monteverde, who made the unexpected smash hit Sound of Freedom for the aforementioned production company last summer. Cristiana Dell’Anna stars in the title role of the real life eventual saint. Costars include David Morse, Romana Maggiora, Federico Iepali, Virginia Bocelli, Rolando Villazón, Giancarlo Giannini, and John Lithgow.
Early reviews are of the thumbs up variety with a 96% RT rating. As mentioned, the studio broke out in a major way with Freedom, which grossed an astonishing $184 million. This was assisted by a unique pay it forward marketing strategy. Angel follow-ups haven’t gotten anywhere near those numbers. October’s After Death took in just over $5 million for its start while December’s The Shift premiered to $4.4 million.
I will readily admit that I’m playing a guessing game with Cabrini. I haven’t seen a theater count and my estimate could shift when I do. A Catholic contingent could get this to higher figures than I’m about to project. Faith-based titles in general certainly have the ability to exceed expectations. It could also start out slow and hold well in subsequent weekends with Easter approaching. This might hit $10 million or even post a larger gross I’m not envisioning. $5 million is also possible. I’ll go higher single digits, but keep an eye on this post to see if I change it up or down before Friday.
Blumhouse hopes audiences turn out for the grisly horror flick Imaginary on March 8th. From Truth or Dare and Kick-Ass 2 maker Jeff Wadlow, the tale of a demented stuffed bear stars DeWanda Wise, Pyper Braun, Tom Payne, Taegen Burns, Veronica Falcón, and Betty Buckley.
Originally slated for early February, the low-budget affair ($13 million reportedly) follows its studio’s model of minor price tags hoping for major returns. This certainly won’t make Five Nights at Freddy’s money when it comes to Blumhouse productions featuring demonic furry creatures.
It could, however, come close or even exceed the budget in its first weekend and that’d be just fine.
Imaginary opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
DreamWorks Animation hopes to reverse diminishing returns for its comedic martial arts franchise when Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in theaters March 8th. Mike Mitchell, maker of such genre fare including Shrek Forever After and Trolls, directs. Jack Black is back voicing the title character alongside returnees Dustin Hoffman, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane. Newcomers include Awkwafina, Ke Huy Quan, Ronny Chieng, Lori Tan Chinn, and Viola Davis.
In the summer of 2008, the first Panda sighting kicked off with $60 million and an eventual $215 million domestic haul. Three summers later, the second edition also made $60 million. However, that was with an extra day of grosses due to the Memorial Day holiday. Its lesser total was $165 million. By January 2016, Kung Fu Panda 3 premiered at $41 million and then $143 million overall.
The eight year layoff is easily the longest between entries. Absence could make the heart grow fonder or at least enough to match its predecessor’s beginning. Yet I suspect mid to high 30s is more likely.
Kung Fu Panda 4 opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million
The month of March blows in some much needed excitement at the box office with Dune: Part Two storming theaters. It looks to dominate the charts with easily the largest debut of 2024 thus far and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
My low to mid 80s take has it doubling the premiere gross of its 2021 predecessor (which had COVID limitations and debuted simultaneously on Max). Those restrictions are gone and it’s generating stronger reviews than part one, which managed 10 Oscar nominations.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 is available just like the first six shows at multiplexes beginning Thursday. My Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in a battle for fourth place with comic book based dud Madame Web‘s third frame.
Current two-week champ Bob Marley: One Love should slide a spot to 2nd with a mid 40s dip. Ordinary Angels is likely to stay third and with an A+ Cinemascore grade, its decline could be minimal (maybe mid to high teens range).
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training was last weekend’s biggest newcomer and had the largest per theater average of all. Like its predecessor To the Swordsmith Village, it should find itself out of the high five as it’s primarily playing as a one-week engagement.
Here’s how I see the top 5 breaking down:
1. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $83.6 million
2. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
3. Ordinary Angels
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. Madame Web
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
5. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (February 23-25)
Biopic Bob Marley: One Love felt the love again in first place with $13.4 million in its sophomore outing. It fell an understandable 53% and didn’t match my rosier $16.2 million projection. The overall tally is a buoyant $71 million.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashita Training managed to outdo Swordsmith by around a million bucks with $11.5 million for the runner-up spot. That’s also the margin that it outpaced my $10.5 million call.
Ordinary Angels took in $6.1 million for third, falling below my $8 million forecast. The faith-based drama, as mentioned, is garnering praise from audiences and it could experience small declines in the coming weeks.
Madame Web, after a troubling start, dropped 61% for fourth at $5.9 million (just over my $5.6 million prediction). The subpar total since Valentine’s Day is $35 million.
Migration rounded out the top five with $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for $120 million in ten weeks.
Argylle was sixth with $2.7 million compared to my $3 million guesstimate as the spy comedy has made $41 million in four weeks.
Wonka was seventh with $2.4 million. I didn’t project a number for it and the holiday confection hit $214 million after 11 weeks.
Finally, Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls stalled in eighth with $2.4 million, in line with my $2.6 million prediction.
Dune: Part Two looks to storm the box office when it debuts on March 1st with what should easily be the largest debut so far in 2024. Denis Villeneuve returns as director with Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in action. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.
The follow-up to the 2021 original could double its opening. As you may recall, Dune experienced a COVID delay from fall 2020 to fall 2021. The pandemic still limited its potential as it simultaneously premiered on Max. That resulted in a $41 million start which was quite impressive for that period of time. It wrapped up its run at $110 million domestically.
At its low end, Part Two is expected to take in $60 million out of the gate. Reviews for the continuation of Frank Herbert’s source material top part one and it’s currently at 98% on RT with plenty of Oscar nominations expected months down the road. The high end of its range is $80 million or even $90 million.
I am forecasting this could get to the low to mid 80s for the aforementioned double up of its predecessor with a little room to spare.
Dune: Part Two opening weekend prediction: $83.6 million
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