Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare isn’t the only spy action comedy out next weekend. Crunchyroll has the Japanese animated variety of the genre hitting screens with Spy x Family Code: White from director Takashi Katagirl.
An expansion of the anime TV show, Spy came out in Japan around Christmastime and it has earned over $40 million overseas. I haven’t seen a theater count yet, but recent Crunchyroll distributions roll out to around 1700-1900 venues.
There’s a consistency in their premieres. 2022’s One Piece Film: Red took in $9.3 million while last year’s Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village came hit $10.1 million. In February, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training debuted to $11.5 million.
Based on that, high single digits or low double digits certainly seems like the way to go. My forecast actually puts it above the Ungentlemanly gang.
Spy x Family Code: White opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Guy Ritchie is back in action comedy mode when The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare arrives in theaters April 19th. The WWII era pic stars Henry Cavill with supporting work from Eiza González, Alan Ritchson, Henry Golding, Alex Pettyfer, Hero Fiennes Tiffin, and Cary Elwes.
The writer/director is no stranger to the genre. On a side note, Ritchie has been a busy man as Warfare marks his sixth feature in as many years. Similarly marketed 2019’s The Gentleman opened in line with expectations at just over $10 million. On the other hand, Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre stalled with a mere $3.1 million in its start.
I suspect this may open in between two Ritchie projects in the mid single digits.
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett, makers of Ready or Not and the last two Scream installments, are in vampiric mode with Abigail on April 19th. Reimagining 1936’s Dracula’s Daughter, the horror flick stars Melissa Barrera (also of the latest Scream entries), Dan Stevens, Alisha Weir, Kathryn Newton, William Catlett, Kevin Durand, the late Angus Cloud, Matthew Goode, and Giancarlo Esposito.
Genre fans have had plenty to feast on in 2024. Just last weekend, we saw The First Omen struggle to bring audiences in with an opening under $10 million despite solid reviews. Abigail is generating appreciative notices as well with a current 82% RT rating.
I suspect Abigail will cross $10 million, but $20 million (or even $15 million) seems like a bridge too far.
Abigail opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million
For my The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare prediction, click here:
A24 is looking for Civil War to be their biggest box office breakout so far when it opens this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:
In order to set the all-time opening premiere record for the studio, it needs to eclipse the low teens start Hereditary managed in 2018. That shouldn’t be a problem as I have it posting a high teens beginning. That should be enough for a #1 perch.
That means Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should slide to second after two weeks atop the charts with a high 40s-low 50s decline. The other sequel with Empire at the end – Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire – might maintain its third place position as I have current #2 Monkey Man experiencing a larger drop. I actually have Monkey sliding three spots. Kung Fu Panda 4 may manage to rise from 5th to 4th as its fall should be less than the sophomore frame of The First Omen, which had a highly disappointing debut (more on that below).
And with that, my forecast for the top 5:
1. Civil War
Predicted Gross: $18 million
2. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
5. Monkey Man
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
BoxOffice Results (April 5-7)
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, as anticipated, had an understandable 61% second weekend plummet to $31.2 million. That’s right on target with my $31.8 million prediction as the impressive two-week total is $134 million.
Dev Patel’s inaugural behind the camera project Monkey Man was runner-up and kicked off on the lower end of expectations. With $10.1 million, it came in well under my $16.6 million take.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $9 million in its third haunting. That’s hotter than my $7.6 million projection as it has amassed $88 million.
The First Omen, as mentioned, might have been victim to horror genre overload. Despite mostly heavenly reviews, the demonic prequel was DOA with $8.3 million. I was more generous at $13.3 million.
Kung Fu Panda 4 rounded out the top five at $7.7 million (I said $6.5 million) as the animated sequel is up to $165 million in five weeks and has grossed more than parts 2 and 3 domestically already. It will not, however, match the $215 million that the original took in.
Finally, Dune: Part Two was sixth with $7.4 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week bounty of $265 million.
Civil War breaks out in theaters on April 12th after a buzzy premiere at South by Southwest last month. The dystopian action flick from Alex Garland imagines a nation deeply divided in what should be timely programming in this election year. Kirsten Dunst, Wagner Moura, Cailee Spaeny, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Nick Offerman, and Jesse Plemons are among the ensemble.
This marks Garland’s fourth directorial feature after the acclaimed Ex Machina from 2015 and 2018’s Annihilation and 2022’s Men which generated considerably more mixed reviews. Notices for War are strong with a 92% RT rating. The A24 release looks to set an all-time best opening for the distributor by topping Hereditary‘s $13.6 million debut.
That record should be set, but by how much is the question for the $50 million budgeted project. Some estimates have this at $20 million or more. I’m being a tad more conservative in the high teens.
A pair of newcomers attempts to dethrone Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire from its perch atop the charts after a terrific Easter start. We have Dev Patel’s action thriller Monkey Man and horror prequel The First Omen out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Neither is likely to dislodge the Warner Bros monster mash from a second frame in first after its massive launch (more on that below). I expect New Empire to have a rather large drop in the high 50s to low 60s.
With the caveat that scary movies can exceed expectations and The First Omen could surprise, I do see Monkey Man managing a runner-up showing in the mid to high teens. Strong reviews should help propel this to solid numbers.
The First Omen may struggle a bit since its franchise doesn’t have the track record of more recent others (it’s been 18 years between entries). My low teens take puts it in firmly in third.
The 4-6 slots should be held by holdover sequels Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Dune: Part Two, and Kung Fu Panda 4 with similar earnings between the trio.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $31.8 million
2. Monkey Man
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
3. The First Omen
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
4. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
6. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Results (March 29-31)
March ended with gargantuan results for Warner Bros as Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rose above prognoses with a fiery $8o million. That decimated my projection of $52.2 million as the fifth MonsterVerse release scored the second best premiere of the quintet behind 2014’s Godzilla.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire had a chilling fall in weekend #2 at 65% to $15.5 million. That’s well under my generous $21.8 million prediction. The weaker B+ Cinemascore grade this Empire received seems to be reflected in the hefty drop.
Dune: Part Two was third with $11.3 million in its fifth go-round, on target with my $11 million call. The total is up to $252 million.
Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth at $10.3 million (I said $10.6 million) for a four-week haul of $151 million.
Immaculate rounded out the top five with $3.2 million in its sophomore outing, on pace with my $3 million forecast. The overall gross is $11 million.
Finally, Arthur the King was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.8 million projection. The three-week result is $19 million.
Despite being a well-known horror series that’s been around for nearly half a century, The First Omen is the first franchise entry in nearly two decades. Serving as a prequel to the 1976 original, Arkasha Stevenson makes her directorial debut with a cast including Nell Tiger Free, Tawfeek Barhom, Sônia Braga, Ralph Ineson, and Bill Nighy.
Genre fans have had plenty to feast on lately from Immaculate to Imaginary to Late Night with the Devil. 20th Century Studios is hoping the brand name helps here, but that could be a stretch. As mentioned, you have to go back 18 years to the last time we had an Omen flick. The 2006 remake premiered in the summer of 2006 and capitalized by debuting on Tuesday, June 6th of that year (get it?). Despite poor reviews, the gambit paid off at first with a $16 million start from Friday to Sunday and $36 million when factoring in those extra three days of release. However, it managed to tumble 65% in its sophomore outing and wound up with a so-so $54 million domestically.
All of that exposition is a way of saying that this franchise doesn’t have the juice of a Conjuring or Insidious or even Evil Dead, to name some. There’s always the chance that horror exceeds expectations. With that caveat, I’ll say low teens is where this lands with a famously unlucky number.
The First Omen opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million
Universal Pictures looks for Monkey Man to make the lion’s share of box office dollars when it opens on April 5th. Dev Patel (a Supporting Actor nominee for 2016’s Lion) makes his directorial debut in the action thriller with John Wickish vibes. He also headlines and cowrote the pic that premiered at South by Southwest to general acclaim (the RT score is 92%). Sharlto Copley, Pitobash, Sobhita Dhulipala, Sikandar Kher, and Vipin Sharma costar. Jordan Peele serves as a producer.
The effective ads could lure genre enthusiasts searching for Wick style violence, even if Patel is far from a bankable commodity (though expect The Green Knight stans to be first in line). This could be an example of cinephiles being more thrilled to view it than general audiences. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if this overperforms and that could mean a high teens to low 20s start. Mid teens might be more likely.
Monkey Man opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million
The fifth entry in the MonsterVerse series stomps into theaters this weekend with Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. It is the sole wide release newcomer over the Easter frame and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The latest battle royale between iconic creatures should easily top the charts. Predecessor Godzilla vs. Kong still faced COVID challenges in 2021 and I think Empire should have no trouble surpassing its low 30s start. My estimate puts this just ahead of 2019’s premiere for Godzilla: King of the Monsters.
After an opening right in line with expectations (more on that below), Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire should slide to second (big weekend for sequels ending in the word empire by the way). How far it dips is worth monitoring. 2016’s Ghostbusters reboot fell 54% after mediocre word-of-mouth in its sophomore outing. 2021’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife eased 45%, but it had the advantage of weekend #2 taking place over the Thanksgiving holiday. I’m basically splitting the difference with Empire experiencing a decline approaching 50%.
Holdover sequels Dune: Part Two and Kung Fu Panda 4 should populate the three and four slots with mid 40s drops. The five spot should be between Immaculate and Arthur the King.
Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:
1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $52.2 million
2. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
3. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $11 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
5. Immaculate
Predicted Gross: $3 million
6. Arthur the King
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
Box Office Results (March 22-24)
The Ghostbusters franchise has been pretty darn consistent over the last near decade. The aforementioned reboot from 2016 with Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig debuted with $46 million. Afterlife kicked off with $44 million. Frozen Empire heated up the charts with $45 million, a bit ahead of my $42.7 million prediction. As mentioned, this is generally where most prognosticators figured this would fall and even at the higher end of that range.
Dune: Part Two was second with $17.6 million, on target with my $17.4 million call. The sci-fi spectacle is up to $233 million after four weeks.
Kung Fu Panda 4 went from 1st to 3rd in its third weekend with $16.5 million, a bit below my $18.2 million call. The animated adventure has amassed $132 million thus far.
Sydney Sweeney’s fright fest Immaculate was fourth with Neon’s highest opening of all time at $5.3 million. I was close at $4.9 million. While this isn’t an overly impressive haul, it does give the studio bragging rights and helps solidify Sweeney’s status as Hollywood’s It Girl of the moment.
Arthur the King rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I said $3.8 million) for a muted two-week tally of $14 million.
Finally, I didn’t make a projection for the critically acclaimed horror flick Late Night with the Devil. It opened in sixth with $2.8 million on just over 1000 screens and that marks a best ever for IFC Films.
Warner Bros is looking for a profitable monster mashup when Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire touches down on March 29th. It is the fifth feature in the MonsterVerse series behind Godzilla (2014), Kong: Skull Island (2017), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (2019), and Godzilla vs. Kong (2021). Adam Wingard, who made the iconic creature battle from three years ago, directs. Rebecca Hall, Brian Tyree Henry, and Kaylee Hottle reprise their roles from the last flick with Dan Stevens, Alex Ferns, and Fala Chen joining the fracas.
Empire is highly unlikely to approach the premiere gross that Godzilla managed nearly 10 years ago with $93 million. The $61 million achieved by Skull Island might be out of reach as well. The best comps are its two immediate predecessors. Monsters started off with $47 million and that was considered a letdown at the time. Godzilla vs. Kong was released when COVID was still limiting earnings potential. It made $31 million out of the gate. Yet its legs were a little stronger as it ended up with $100 million domestic vs. the slightly more $110 million for Monsters.
There’s a possibility that #5 posts the third best debut of the quintet. I suspect that it will with a gross just ahead of what part 3 achieved.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire opening weekend prediction: $52.2 million
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