Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

June 21-23 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Bikeriders and The Exorcism enter a marketplace in which Inside Out 2 greatly exceeded expectations last weekend. The summer box office is finally looking up, but the two new entries could struggle for exposure. My detailed prediction posts on them can be accessed here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction
The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

There’s no doubt that Inside Out 2 will be perched in 1st for a second weekend. A high 30s to low 40s decline would put it in the low to mid 90s. A sequel in its third frame – Bad Boys: Ride or Die – should remain in the runner-up slot with a mid 30s to 40% ease.

Now we get to the newbies. With decent reviews and the star power of Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, and Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders could still sputter with a third place showing. I think the big question is whether it reaches double digits and I have it barely accomplishing that minor goal.

As for The Exorcism, Russell Crowe’s second horror pic in as many years dealing with the subject matter probably won’t reach the $10 million that The Pope’s Exorcist did in April of 2023.

The five spot may go to holdover Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in its seventh week of release and here’s how I have the high five playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $93.6 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. The Bikeriders

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. The Exorcism

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (June 14-16)

Disney/Pixar were feeling all the happy emotions as Inside Out 2 blasted past forecasts for the 2nd best animated opening of all time. That would also be the 2nd largest Pixar haul behind record holder Incredibles 2. The sequel to the 2015 Oscar winning blockbuster posted $154.2 million, way beyond my $92.4 million call. It’s also the biggest 2024 premiere thus far.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die only fell 40% after its huge start with $33.7 million, riding past my $29.8 million take. The fourth entry in the three-decade old franchise has amassed $113 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes actually rose 2% to $5.5 million in third, dwarfing my $3.1 million projection as this sequel’s six-week tally is $158 million.

The over performance of Inside Out 2 caused other family friendly titles to plummet. The Garfield Movie was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $6.1 million) for $78 million in four weeks. IF was fifth with $3.6 million (I said $4.9 million) for $101 million in five weeks.

Finally, The Watchers was sixth in its sophomore frame with $3.5 million compared to my $2.9 million prediction. The two-week total is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Exorcism looks to quench the moviegoing public’s thirst for mixing Russell Crowe with demonic possessions on June 21st. The horror flick arrives only a year behind the lead playing The Pope’s Exorcist. Those two pics aren’t related as Joshua John Miller directs with a supporting cast including Ryan Simpkins, Sam Worthington, Chloe Bailey, Adam Goldberg, Adrian Padsar, and David Hyde Pierce.

In April of 2023, The Pope’s Exorcist managed to open at the higher end of its expected range with a little over $9 million and an eventual $20 million gross. It is fair to wonder if genre enthusiasts are pining for another helping of its star and subject matter.

Scary movies have struggled in 2024 and this might need divine intervention to exceed $10 million for its start. I doubt it will.

The Exorcism opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my The Bikeriders prediction, click here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction

Focus Features is hoping audiences wanna take a ride with The Bikeriders on June 21st. The 1960s set crime drama comes is written and directed by Jeff Nichols with a cast including Jodie Comer, Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, Michael Shannon, Mike Faist, and Norman Reedus.

The pic was first seen at Telluride nearly ten months ago and delayed from its original December release date due to the actors strike. It stands to reason that the studio wanted their leads out promoting the project which scored mostly positive reviews (84% on RT).

That star power of Elvis and Venom may not be enough to give this a wide audience. I’m not convinced this will make its reported $40 million budget back with the eventual domestic gross. That might mean a low double digits start and I’m a bit skeptical it even reaches the teens.

The Bikeriders opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million

For my The Exorcism prediction, click here:

The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

June 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Disney/Pixar looks to dominate the box office charts in a way they haven’t for some time with Inside Out 2. The sequel to the 2015 hit is the only newcomer in the marketplace and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Inside Out 2 Box Office Prediction

After some fairly underwhelming grosses for the studio, Out could exceed the $90 million premiere achieved by its predecessor nine summers ago. I have it just doing so for what would be the fifth largest Pixar opening in its nearly three decade history.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die got off to a sizzling start (more on that below) and a mid to high 40s decline would have it in the $30 million range for its sophomore outing.

Spots 3 and 4 are likely to be a family friendly zone with The Garfield Movie and IF. Both will probably see slightly heftier declines than this past weekend considering the Mouse Factory competition.

Ishana Night Shyamalan’s horror debut The Watchers failed to attract genre viewers and I suspect its second weekend will see a dip in the 60% region. That could mean Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes stays in fifth with The Watchers in sixth.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $92.4 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. IF

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

6. The Watchers

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (June 7-9)

Will Smith can breathe a sigh of relief as Bad Boys: Ride or Die topped estimates with a boisterous $56.5 million. While that’s under the $62 million that 2020 predecessor Bad Boys for Life achieved, it’s still an impressive number considering this summer of underachievers. I didn’t give it enough credit with a $47.3 million forecast. For Smith, it’s a sign that moviegoers are willing to shell out their bucks after The Slap. Don’t be surprised to see him and Martin Lawrence back for a fifth adventure.

The Garfield Movie was second with a meager 29% slide at $10 million, ahead of my $8.9 million call. The three-week total is $68 million as it hopes to reach $100 million domestically.

IF only fell 25% for third at $7.8 million, in range with my $7.4 million projection. It is approaching nine digits with $93 million after four weeks.

The aforementioned The Watchers couldn’t capitalize on the Shyamalan family name as poor reviews sunk it. The gross was just $7 million for fourth compared to my $10.2 million estimate.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I said $6 million) for five-week earnings of $149 million.

Lastly, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted another 61% in sixth with $4.2 million. I was kinder at $5.7 million as the prequel has only hit $58 million after three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Inside Out 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney/Pixar hope for a reversal of recent fortunes when Inside Out 2 arrives in theaters June 14th. A sequel to the 2015 megahit Animated Feature Oscar winner, Kelsey Mann takes over directorial duties from Pete Docter. Returning voices include Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, Diane Lane, and Kyle MacLachlan. Replacing Bill Hader from the original is Tony Hale while Liza Lapira, Maya Hawke, Ayo Edebiri, Adéle Exarchopoulos, Paul Walter Hauser, and Kensington Tallman as the now teenage Riley join the cast.

Nine summers ago, the original made $90 million in its premiere frame with an eventual domestic tally of $356 million. That stands as the fifth largest opening of all time for Pixar and the sixth heftiest overall final take.

As mentioned, the studio has dealt with its own emotional rollercoasters as of late. 2022’s Lightyear was a high profile flop with a lowly (for Pixar) $118 million total. Last summer, Elemental fared better with $154 million while that’s still a ways from their typical numbers.

This sequel should brighten their emotions. Part 1 is well-regarded and family audiences should be primed for a second helping. Estimates have this making around what the predecessor accomplished out of the gate. It might manage slightly more. Each Toy Story, for instance, improved with the first weekend figures. Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory dwarfed the starts of their precursors.

I’ll go glass half full and say this just manages to outdo the original while not reaching nine digits in its first three days.

Inside Out 2 opening weekend prediction: $92.4 million

June 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Sony Pictures and theater owners are desperately looking for Will Smith and Martin Lawrence’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die to inject some life into the box office this weekend. We also have The Watchers, the horror debut from Ishana Night Shyamalan, daughter of M. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction
The Watchers Box Office Prediction

While I don’t have Ride revving up to the same numbers that predecessor Bad Boys for Life managed in January 2020, my mid to high 40s projection puts it in line with its somewhat muted expectations.

As I’ve been mentioning frequently in 2024, scary movies have struggled even managing $10M+ as of late for their starts. I do believe The Watchers gets there, but not by a lot for a so-so second place showing.

After rising to #1 (more on that below), The Garfield Movie should drop to third while IF appears poised for a one spot slide to fourth. That’s because Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is bound to see a larger percentage decline. It may even fall from second to sixth depending on how Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes holds up.

And with that, my top 6 take on the frame ahead:

1. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $47.3 million

2. The Watchers

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. IF

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $6 million

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (May 31-June 2)

The woes continued at multiplexes with no major new releases even sniffing $5 million. It’s a bit of a cinematic litter box right now and The Garfield Movie elevated to first with $14 million. That’s ahead of my $12 million projection for its sophomore outing as it’s up to $51 million.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted 59%, as I figured, to second with $10.7 million. That’s on target with my $11.3 million take as the prequel has amassed a mere $49 million in its two weeks.

IF held up nicely in third with $10.5 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week gross of $80 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $8.9 million, in range with my $8.5 million call. After four weeks, the sequel is perched at $140 million.

I incorrectly didn’t have estimates for The Fall Guy or The Strangers: Chapter 1. The former was fifth with $4.1 million for $80 million after five frames while the latter took in $3.7 million in sixth for $28 million after three weeks.

That’s because I had Japan’s animated Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle in fifth place, but it was seventh with $3.6 million. I was darn close for the forecast with $3.9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Watchers Box Office Prediction

Horror flicks have seen mostly subpar returns in 2024 and the offspring of a genre mainstay attempts to turn that around with The Watchers on June 7th. Ishana Night Shyamalan, daughter of M., makes her directorial debut with the supernatural tale. Based on a novel by A.M. Shine, it stars Dakota Fanning, Georgina Campbell, Oliver Finnegan, and Olwen Fouéré.

Getting to an opening in the low teens has been a challenge for scary movies in the last few weeks. Recent examples include Abigail which made just over $10 million and The Strangers: Chapter 1 with $12 million.

Perhaps the family name could push this over $13 million. Dad serves as a producer and has his own project Trap out in August. I’ll say this doesn’t quite reach the teen and just clears double digits.

The Watchers opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million

For my Bad Boys: Ride or Die prediction, click here:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction

Nearly four and a half years ago, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence were riding high with Bad Boys for Life. The third entry in the buddy cop franchise that began nearly 30 years ago set series best marks with $73 million over the four-day MLK frame in January 2020. It ended up with just over $200 million domestically.

And then things got weird. Life was the last mega-grosser before the pandemic hit and stalled the industry for many months. Smith, meanwhile, became embroiled in the infamous Oscar slap controversy two years later with Chris Rock. The directors of part 3 – Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah – followed Life up with Batgirl which Warner Bros shockingly decided to shelve for eternity.

So it kind of feels like there’s a lot riding on Bad Boys: Ride or Die when it opens June 7th. Smith and Lawrence are back alongside Joe Pantoliano, Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Paola Núñez, Jacob Scipio, and DJ Khaled. The Batgirl makers return as well. Newcomers to part 4 include Tiffany Haddish, Eric Dane, Ioan Gruffudd, Rhea Seehorn, Melanie Liburd, and Tasha Smith (pulling an Aunt Viv and replacing Theresa Randle as Lawrence’s wife).

Bad Boys hopes to shake up a summer season where plenty of titles have fallen below expectations. This is also the first test of Smith’s star power post slap. I do not expect it to match the earnings of its predecessor. Part 3 took in $62 million for the three-day portion of its premiere. Sony would probably be satisfied with that and it would quell any “Smith’s career is dead” chatter.

I’m estimating a start that might not totally quell that conversation in the mid to late 40s.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die opening weekend prediction: $47.3 million

For my The Watchers prediction, click here:

The Watchers Box Office Prediction

May 31-June 2 Box Office Predictions

The closeout of May and dawn of June at the box office will be even rougher than the Memorial Day weekend… and that weekend was rough at multiplexes (more on that below). The anime sports pic Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle is the only significant new release as it aims for a top five showing where the #1 pic could struggle to top double digits. My detailed prediction post on the newcomer can be accessed here:

Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle Box Office Prediction

With my mid single digits projection (it could go higher), I have Dumpster placing fifth.

There could be a photo finish for #1 after a frame in which the new holiday pictures bombed. I have Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga falling in the high 50s after its poor performance and The Garfield Movie dipping over 50%. That might give the tabby cat the (not exactly) bragging rights in 1st.

IF should hold in third with a smaller decline than the sophomore weekend competitors. Heck, it could contend for the top spot if Furiosa and Garfield go downhill even more. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is likely to hold in fourth and here’s how I have it all playing out:

1. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $12 million

2. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

3. IF

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (May 24-27)

And now to the dumpster fire that just happened. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga managed to be first with $32.3 million over the Friday to Monday four-day expanded frame. That’s well below what predecessor Fury Road achieved some nine years ago and way under my $47.2 million prediction. **Please note that my percentage drops listed above are for the three-day Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend where this earned just $26.3 million.

The Garfield Movie also debuted on the lowest end of its anticipated range in second with $31.2 million compared to my $41.5 million take. Its B+ Cinemascore grade is subpar for a family feature (IF got an A) and I’m skeptical its legs will be sturdy.

IF fell to third in weekend #2 with $22.3 million, a tad ahead of my $20.6 million call. The two-week tally is $64 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $17.6 million (I said $18 million) as it inched up to $127 million. This is really the only significant success story of the summer thus far… or at least it’s generally performing in line with expectations.

The Fall Guy rounded out the top five with $7.9 million. I went lower at $5.8 million, but it’s only up to $74 million after four weeks.

The Strangers: Chapter 1 was sixth with $7 million (I said $5.6 million) as the low budget horror sequel is at $22 million.

Finally, Sight from Angel Studios struggled for eyeballs with $3.7 million in seventh. I thought it might get more with $5.3 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (05/30): Since it is only playing on just over 1000 screens, I am lowering my prediction from $6.5M to $3.9M

Sony Pictures and Crunchyroll hope fans of Japan’s manga TV series dive into Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle when it debuts this weekend. The animated sports tale stems from a show that ran from 2012 to 2020. Susumu Mitsunaka directs a voice cast that includes Ayumu Murase, Kaito Ishikawa, Yuki Kaji, and Yuichi Nakamura.

The distributor gets the most bang for its buck overseas as Battle is already the second highest grosser in Japan for 2024. Obviously stateside grosses will be considerably smaller. Crunchyroll’s titles have seen diminishing domestic unveilings as of late. It is also worth noting that they usually generate about 70% of their business in the first weekend.

In February of this year, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training did bring in $11.5 million and that was just over 2023 predecessor To the Swordsmith Village at $10.1 million. Outside of that franchise, One Piece Film: Red premiered with $9.3 million in November ’23 while Spy x Family Code: White stalled with $4.8 million just last month.

I’ll give Haikyu!! a mid to higher single digits opening.

Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million