Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Updates (08/08): Two updates for the newcomers on the eve of their premieres. Bumping It Ends with Us from $39.8 million to $43.8 million and downsizing Borderlands from $11.3 million to $8.1 million.

After the 8th best second weekend of all time at the domestic box office, Deadpool & Wolverine should rule the charts for a third frame. Yet the most serious competition for Ryan Reynolds thus far will come from his wife Blake Lively. That’s courtesy of the romantic drama It Ends with Us based on the bestseller from Colleen Hoover. Its breakout potential could cause it to over perform even beyond my forecast. We also have the video game based sci-fi action comedy Borderlands with Cate Blanchett and Kevin Hart. My detailed prediction posts on both newbies can be found here:

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction
Borderlands Box Office Prediction

It Ends should begin with impressive numbers. The source material looks to bring in a sizable female audience who have been underserved in these summer months. My low to mid 30s call puts it easily in second and I could envision it going even higher.

I’m not expecting fireworks for Borderlands. Despite its video game series being popular, my low double digits take would place it in fourth behind the fourth go-round for Twisters.

Deadpool & Wolverine should lose about half its sophomore weekend crowd and that would give it high 40s for a third championship session.

Despicable Me 4 may only fall one slot to fifth. The percentage drop should be meager compared to M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap. His latest thriller underwhelmed (more on that below) and I foresee it plummeting around 60% to sixth place.

Here’s how I see that top 6 playing out:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $49.6 million

2. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

3. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Borderlands

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

6. Trap

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (August 9-11)

As mentioned, Deadpool & Wolverine managed the 8th largest weekend #2 with $96.8 million, easily clawing beyond my $84.6 million prediction. The MCU mashup has amassed $395 million in only ten days.

Twisters held tight in second with $22.8 million, blowing past my $18.1 million estimate. In three weeks, the sequel has hit $195 million with $200 million coming this week.

Mr. Shyamalan’s Trap performed in line with predecessors Old and Knock at the Cabin. In third place, the $15.4 million gross was under my $19.2 million projection. This opening is certainly on the lower end of the expected range and the C+ Cinemascore grade suggests the aforementioned large drop is coming.

Despicable Me 4 was fourth with $11.4 million compared to my $9.4 million call. The five-week total is $314 million.

Inside Out 2 rounded out the top five with $6.8 million for $626 million so far in eight weeks. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.

That’s because the family friendly and poorly reviewed Harold and the Purple Crayon couldn’t draw its crowd. With $6 million in sixth place, it fell under my $7.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Borderlands Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, I’m downsizing my estimate from $11.3 million to $8.1 million

For quite some, “based on a video game” was a kiss of death for cinematic adaptations. Some of the massive failures include 1993’s live-action Super Mario Bros., Double Dragon, Wing Commander, and Max Payne. That trend has reversed in recent years with hits like Uncharted, last year’s animated The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s. So where Eli Roth’s Borderlands land? I suspect it might fail to break out.

The sci-fi action comedy is spawned from one of the most successful game franchises that began 15 years ago. An impressive cast includes Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black (doing voiceover work), Edgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, Gina Gershon, Haley Bennett, Bobby Lee, and Jamie Lee Curtis.

Some die-hard aficionados of the role-playing first-person shooter series will obviously turn up. Crossover appeal, despite the recognizable cast, could be a tall order. A debut of over $20 million should be considered a win, but I think it might stall out in the low double digits.

Borderlands opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million

For my It Ends with Us prediction, click here:

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, bumping my estimate from $39.8 million to $43.8 million

Blake Lively’s husband Ryan Reynolds will certainly have the largest summer 2024 opening with Deadpool & Wolverine, but her romantic drama It Ends with Us could be poised for an impressive beginning. Based on a 2016 novel by Colleen Hoover that was a huge bestseller, Lively costars with Justin Baldoni. He also handles directorial duties. The supporting cast includes Jenny Slate, Hasan Minhaj, and Brandon Sklenar.

Originally set for release in February, then June, and finally settling on the August date, Ends should be shrewd seasonal counter programming. The Sony release could perform similarly to last year’s Where the Crawdads Sing. It was also based on a wildly popular book. Opening to $17 million in July 2022, it eventually legged out to $90 million domestically.

Ends might even be more front loaded. Some estimates have this in the $25 million range. My hunch is to go higher in the upper 30s to even low 40s.

It Ends with Us opening weekend prediction: $43.8 million

For my Borderlands prediction, click here:

Borderlands Box Office Prediction

August 2-4 Box Office Predictions

M. Night Shyamalan’s thriller Trap looks to set a solid second place showing after the MCU behemoth that is Deadpool & Wolverine. We also have Harold and the Purple Crayon looking to draw in a family audience as August arrives at multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers right here:

Trap Box Office Prediction
Harold and the Purple Crayon Box Office Prediction

Trap could have breakout potential with its concept of a serial killer being cornered at a concert with his unknowing daughter. The brand name recognition of its director could assist. Mid 20s seems doable, but I have it in the high teens. That should be enough to give it runner-up status over the third frame of Twisters which should also be in that same forecasted range.

Harold and the Purple Crayon is a tricky one. Based on a nearly 70-year-old kids book, parents and kids may turn up since most have already viewed Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. I suspect the so-so trailers and quiet word-of-mouth could mean just higher single digits. That might mean fifth place just under Despicable.

Now we move to Deadpool & Wolverine. The eagerly awaited Marvel mashup smashed my projection (more on that below). This should be fairly front loaded as anticipation was sky high. Similar MCU fare that reached close to the D & W level (like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness) experienced sophomore drops in the low to high 60s. This may see high 50s or low 60s which would put it in the low to mid 80s.

And with that, my take on this weekend’s high five:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $84.6 million

2. Trap

Predicted Gross: $19.2 millionm

3. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

4. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Harold and the Purple Crayon

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (July 26-28)

Filmgoers devoured Deadpool & Wolverine, providing record setting numbers as the 34th MCU tale spawned the largest R-rated debut ever at $211.4 million (dwarfing my $176.1 million prediction). That’s also the 6th biggest domestic haul in history (between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jurassic World) and 4th highest MCU beginning behind Avengers: Endgame, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Avengers: Infinity War. The all-time July record was additionally achieved. Furthermore it marks a personal best for Peggy, the dog who plays Mary Puppins or Dogpool. After a rough couple of years for the MCU, this gets the franchise back in phenomenal order.

The massive over performance of Wade and Logan meant Twisters spiraled more than most thought it would. It fell an understandable 57% to second at $34.9 million compared to my $42 million estimate. The two-week tally is still a potent $154 million.

Despicable Me 4 was third with $14.5 million, in line with my $15.2 million call. The animated smash has amassed $291 million in four weeks.

Speaking of animated smashes, Inside Out 2 became the #1 domestic animated title of all time with $613 million and replacing previous champion Incredibles 2. The fourth placing showing this weekend gave it another $8.6 million (I said $8.4 million). Pixar’s sequel also stands as the gold medalist for worldwide numbers in its genre.

Longlegs rounded out the top five with $6.7 million, in range with my $6.4 million projection. The horror hit has scared up $58 million in three weeks.

Finally, the geriatric comedy The Fabulous Four with Bette Midler and Susan Sarandon belly flopped in eighth with a mere $1 million. I thought it might manage $1.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Harold and the Purple Crayon Box Office Prediction

Nearly 70 years after the Crockett Johnson children’s book was published, the cinematic adaptation of Harold and the Purple Crayon hopes to draw in families on August 2nd. The Columbia release is directed by Carlos Saldanha, best known for his involvement in the Ice Age franchise. The live-action fantasy mixed with animation stars Zachary Levi, Lil Rel Howery, Jemaine Clement, Tanya Reynolds, Alfred Molina, and Zooey Deschanel.

While parents and their kiddos have made Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 smash hits this summer, I don’t think most are pining for the Purple. That said, it could surprise and over perform if they are looking for air conditioned entertainment. If so, low double digits or low teens is doable. I suspect it might struggle and only hit higher single digits.

Harold and the Purple Crayon opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million

For my Trap prediction, click here:

Trap Box Office Prediction

Trap Box Office Prediction

M. Night Shyamalan and Warner Bros hope Trap fills movie houses on August 2nd. The thriller casts Josh Hartnett as a serial killer trying to thwart a manhunt while attending a concert with his daughter (Ariel Donoghue). Mr. Shyamalan’s own daughter Saleka plays the artist at the venue. Hayley Mills (known for The Parent Trap some 63 years ago) and Alison Pill costar.

The writer/director experienced a mini career resurgence starting with 2017’s Split. His last two efforts haven’t generated huge numbers, but have been profitable due to low budgets. 2021’s Old started with $16 million and then grossed $48 million overall domestically. Last year’s Knock at the Cabin premiered to $14 million and $34 million total stateside. Both had reported price tags in the high teens to $20 million.

I haven’t seen the cost for Trap but its gimmick of a one place setting can’t be too expensive. Shyamalan’s pics do their business based on his name though there’s certainly limits compared to his early 2000s heyday. I doubt this will make much more than his aforementioned predecessors so let’s go high teens to low 20s.

Trap opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million

For my Harold and the Purple Crayon prediction, click here:

Harold and the Purple Crayon Box Office Prediction

July 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman come together for what should be the biggest opening of 2024 so far in Deadpool & Wolverine. The MCU pic is poised to dominate the weekend though Susan Sarandon and Bette Midler will try to bring in older females with The Fabulous Four. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

Deadpool & Wolverine Box Office Prediction
The Fabulous Four Box Office Prediction

My take on Deadpool & Wolverine gives it the 16th best domestic start of all time (and ninth highest for the MCU). The projected number puts it above Mr. Pool’s two direct predecessors.

Let’s dispense with Fabulous. My tiny $1.5 million estimate puts the geriatric comedy well outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Twisters could fall by over 50% after its terrific start (more on that below). I’m going to be a bit more generous and say it eases in the high 40s. The animated offerings of Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 should hold the 3-4 slots with Longlegs rounding out the top five.

And with that, my take on the frame ahead:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $176.1 million

2. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $42 million

3. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Longlegs

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (July 19-21)

Twisters blew away expectations with $81.2 million, eclipsing my $72.3 million take. It also edged Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire as the year’s biggest live-action debut (a record that will stand until this weekend per above).

Despicable Me 4 slid to second with $24.4 million, on target with my $24.8 million prediction for a three-week total of $260 million.

Inside Out 2 was third with $12.8 million. That’s right in line with my $13.2 million call as the Pixar behemoth is up to $596 million in six weeks.

Longlegs had solid legs in fourth with $11.9 million in weekend #2. I was close at $11 million and it has $44 million in its coffers.

A Quiet Place: Day One was fifth with $6.3 million (I said $6.6 million) for $127 million after four outings.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Fabulous Four Box Office Prediction

Out July 26th, The Fabulous Four is the latest entry in the growing number of comedies centered on senior women. The actresses making up the title quartet are Susan Sarandon, Bette Midler, Sheryl Lee Ralph, and Megan Mullaly. Jocelyn Moorhouse directs with a supporting cast including Bruce Greenwood, Timothy V. Murphy, and Michael Bolton (!).

From Book Club and its recent sequel to Queen Bees and 80 for Brady, this sub genre continues to expand. The first Club and Brady both managed to exceed expectations at the box office, but Four faces a significant challenge. Distributor Bleecker Street is not known for opening their pictures to impressive grosses.

I have yet to see a screen count for this, but recent Bleecker releases like What Happens Later with Meg Ryan and Ezra with Robert De Niro rolled out between 1300-1500 venues. Their respective starts were $1.5 million and $1.2 million. Assuming Four hits about the same number, I’ll project similar results. In fact, I’ll give it exactly what Later managed.

The Fabulous Four opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million

For my Deadpool & Wolverine prediction, click here:

Deadpool & Wolverine Box Office Prediction

Deadpool & Wolverine Box Office Prediction

On July 26th, Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman are back in their signature roles and for the first time together in the aptly titled Deadpool & Wolverine. The superhero mashup is the 34th title in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the second sequel to 2016’s smash Deadpool. Shawn Levy directs with a supporting cast including Emma Corrin, Matthew Macfadyen, Morena Baccarin, Rob Delaney, Leslie Uggams, Brianna Hildebrand, Karan Soni, Shioli Kutsana, Lewis Tan, Aaron Stanford, Tyler Mane, Jon Favreau (back as Happy Hogan), and apparently Jennifer Garner reprising her Elektra role.

This pairing has long been looked at as the likely contender for summer 2024’s biggest blockbuster. That’s a position that might be unattainable domestically due to the Inside Out 2 phenomenon. However, it is expected to achieve the highest premiere of the season and the year.

Jackman hasn’t donned the claws since 2017’s Logan and that return helps feed the buzz. This should have no trouble giving Wolverine his largest start which is currently held by 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand ($102 million).

The same logic applies to Mr. Pool. The original made $132 million out of the gate and $363 million overall eight years ago. 2018’s follow-up took in $125 million with $318 million total stateside.

Tracking has this at around $165 million, but I’ll uptick it closer to $180 million. My exact call gives it the 16th strongest opening ever between Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Beauty and the Beast.

Deadpool & Wolverine opening weekend prediction: $176.1 million

For my The Fabulous Four prediction, click here:

The Fabulous Four Box Office Prediction

July 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Twisters storms into theaters nearly 30 years after the blockbuster original and it should easily rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the weekend’s newcomer here:

Twisters Box Office Prediction

My hunch is to take the over on its anticipated range and my forecast puts Twisters in the low 70s.

The rest of the top 5 should consist of holdovers. I see Despicable Me 4, after two weeks in the top spot, dropping to second in the low to mid 40s percent arena. Another animated sequel, Inside Out 2, may hold in third.

That’s because I have it dipping in the mid t0 high 30s and current #2 Longlegs experiencing a fall in the 50% range (more on that pic’s impressive start below). A Quiet Place: Day One will probably round out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $72.3 million

2. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $24.8 million

3. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Longlegs

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (July 12-14)

Illumination Entertainment lit up the charts once again as Despicable Me 4 repeated in first. The sequel took in $43.5 million in its sophomore outing and that exceeds my $36.4 million prediction. Since its holiday weekend debut, it has amassed $210 million.

Neon had the largest premiere in its history (and then some) with the serial killer thriller Longlegs. Featuring a heavily made up Nicolas Cage as the title character, it held the runner-up spot with $22.4 million. That nearly doubles my $11.6 million projection and quadruples the studio’s previous record holder Immaculate from earlier in the year. It is certainly one of 2024’s biggest over performers.

Inside Out 2 was third with $19.9 million, a tad more than my $17.7 million take. The Pixar follow-up stands at $571 million after five weeks.

A Quiet Place: Day One was fourth with $11.3 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week tally of $115 million.

Finally, the star power of Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum wasn’t enough to lift Fly Me to the Moon to stellar results. The space race rom com was fifth with $9.4 million compared to my $12.2 million call.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…