Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

August 30-September 2 Box Office Predictions

Sci-fi horror pic AfrAId and political biopic Reagan are two newcomers working hard to attract viewers over Labor Day weekend, but it should be holdovers shining atop the box office hill. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

AfrAId Box Office Prediction
Reagan Box Office Prediction

Over the four-day frame, I don’t believe either fresh flick will manage to hit double digits. As an aside, there are other newbies out like 1992 with Tyrese Gibson and the late Ray Liotta and Slingshot with Casey Affleck and Laurence Fishburne. There’s also the family sports tale You Gotta Believe. I didn’t do individual write-ups on this trio as I have a tough time envisioning any of them approaching the top five (or top 8 for that matter). If any of them have a shot of surprising, maybe Believe does but I wouldn’t count on it.

AfrAId from Blumhouse should be the best performer of the debuts. That still could mean only high single digits for a third place showing at best or fourth or fifth.

How Reagan rolls out is a big question mark. With Dennis Quaid as the 40th POTUS, it might over perform if conservatives come out in force. I’m skeptical and my mid single digits take puts it outside the high five.

The seasonal leftovers usually have small percentage drops over this holiday frame from Friday to Monday. I would anticipate that Deadpool & Wolverine, Alien: Romulus, and It Ends with Us will maintain spots 1-3. Faith-based drama The Forge nabbed an A+ Cinemascore this past weekend and should hold steady (same goes for Blink Twice). That could mean both earn more than Reagan.

Here’s how I have it shaking out and we’ll do a top 8 forecast as the summer season closes out. These are Friday to Monday estimates:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

2. Alien: Romulus

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

3. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. AfrAId

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

5. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

6. Blink Twice

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

7. The Forge

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

8. Reagan

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (August 23-25)

Deadpool & Wolverine clawed its way back to the #1 slot after a week away. The MCU behemoth took in $18.3 million in its fifth week, in range with my $19.2 million prediction. It is up to $577 million total.

Alien: Romulus slid precipitously to second in its sophomore outing. Down 61%, the gross was $16.3 million (a bit under my $17.8 million call) for $72 million thus far.

It Ends with Us stayed in third with $11.6 million, a tad shy of my $13.4 million projection. The three-week haul is $120 million.

A trio of newcomers generally underwhelmed. Blink Twice fared best in fourth at $7.3 million. That doesn’t match my $8.5 million estimate though it’s an OK result considering the reported $20 million price tag.

The Forge was fifth at $6.6 million and that’s on target with my $7.1 million prediction. As mentioned, it should hold well considering the Cinemascore grade.

Finally, The Crow didn’t fly with viewers. The reboot tanked in 8th place with just $4.6 million. I was kinder at $7.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Reagan Box Office Prediction

As the nation is focused on who will be the 47th President of the United States, distributor ShowBiz Direct hopes moviegoers watch a biopic about the 40th over Labor Day weekend. Sean McNamara directs Reagan with Dennis Quaid in the title role and Penelope Ann Miller as First Lady Nancy. Costars include Nick Searcy, Robert Davi, Lesley-Anne Down, C. Thomas Howell, Kevin Dillon, Mena Suvari, and Jon Voight. Heck, we even have Creed frontman Scott Stapp as Frank Sinatra (?!?).

Political pics fave challenges breaking through at the box office. I’m not sure audiences will greet this with arms wide open. Shot in late 2020, it has taken some time to find its way to the big screen. Reagan is catering to a conservative audience as evidenced by the politics of some of the cast.

Perhaps older viewers will turn out, but I’m skeptical the MAGA crowd shows up in force. With the caveat that this could outperform, I’ll say mid to maybe higher single digits is where this lands over the four-day holiday.

Reagan opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million (Friday to Monday prediction)

For my AfrAId prediction, click here:

AfrAId Box Office Prediction

AfrAId Box Office Prediction

Sony and Blumhouse are counting on horror fans to show up for AfrAId when it debuts over Labor Day weekend. From director Chris Weitz (whose varied filmography includes About a Boy, The Golden Compass, and The Twilight Saga: New Moon), the cast includes John Cho, Katherine Waterston, Havana Rose Liu, Lukita Maxwell, David Dastmalchian, and Keith Carradine.

At a brisk 84 minutes, the tale of an AI assistant gone rogue is Blumhouse’s latest hope for a genre breakout. They had a banner year in 2023 with M3GAN and Five Nights at Freddy’s. 2024 has been rougher with disappointments Night Swim and Imaginary.

AfrAId is unlikely to bring many real viewers in. For the extended holiday frame, it may struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it does not.

AfrAId opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million (Friday to Monday projection)

For my Reagan prediction, click here:

Reagan Box Office Prediction

The Forge Box Office Prediction

The Forge is the latest faith-based drama from director Alex Kendrick and his brother/cowriter Stephen Kendrick. With Sony Pictures distributing, it makes its way to theaters August 23rd. A spin-off to 2015’s surprise hit War Room, the cast features Cameron Arnett, Priscilla Shirer, Aspen Kennedy, Karen Abercrombie, and T.C. Stallings.

Nearly a decade ago, War Room debuted far beyond expectations at $11.4 million on its way to a $67 million domestic haul. The Kendricks’ follow-up, 2019’s Overcomer, couldn’t match those figures with an $8 million start and $34 million overall.

The lengthy break between Room and Forge could limit its drawing power. I still think high single digits and even $10 million is possible. However, my take puts it just behind fellow newbies Blink Twice and The Crow.

The Forge opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million

For my Blink Twice prediction, click here:

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction

For my The Crow prediction, click here:

The Crow Box Office Prediction

August 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Zoë Kravitz’s directorial debut Blink Twice and The Crow reboot make their way to multiplexes this weekend, but the top 3 may look familiar… albeit with a potential change at the top. We also have the faith-based drama The Forge (a spin-off of the surprise 2015 hit War Room) entering the fray. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction
The Crow Box Office Prediction
The Forge Box Office Prediction

The dog days of August are when newbies can struggle to find an audience. I have Blink and The Crow separated by about a million bucks with both falling under $10 million. Set to premiere on more screens, I’m giving Blink the slight edge for a fourth place finish with The Crow landing in fifth.

The Forge is a potential wild card. I wouldn’t be shocked if it cleared $10 million and contended for fourth or even third. Yet I have it just behind the other debuts for a sixth place showing.

Alien: Romulus started toward the higher end of expectations (more on that below). It also nabbed a better Cinemascore grade (B+) than the B’s generated by predecessors Prometheus and Alien: Covenant. In 2012, Prometheus fell a steep 59% in its sophomore outing while 2017’s Covenant took a 71% nosedive. I’ll say Romulus eases in the mid to upper 50s for a late teens second frame.

If Deadpool & Wolverine only experiences a mid 30s decline, the MCU juggernaut could rise back to #1 and that’s what I’m envisioning. It Ends with Us from Mrs. Deadpool aka Blake Lively should hold third position in the low teens.

Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

2. Alien: Romulus

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million

3. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. Blink Twice

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. The Crow

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

6. The Forge

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (August 16-18)

Disney/20th Century Studios had another winner on their hands as Alien: Romulus easily got to 1st place with $42 million, ahead of my $35.2 million prediction. With mostly complimentary reviews, audiences were ready for a seventh series entry that built upon the $36 million start of Covenant seven summers ago. It did not reach the $51 million heights that Prometheus managed.

Deadpool & Wolverine slipped to second after three weeks in the pole position. The superhero mashup took in $30 million, right on target with my $29.5 million forecast for $546 million thus far.

It Ends with Us dwindled an understandable 52% with a third place $23.8 million finish. I went a little higher at $27.9 million as the romantic drama is nearing the century mark after ten days at $97 million.

Twisters was fourth with $10 million, in line with my $9.8 million forecast for a five-week tally of $238 million.

Finally, the 15th anniversary re-release of the stop-motion animated fantasy Coraline rounded out the top five with $9.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t factor it in my estimates. The extra cash brought its total since 2009 to $87 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction

MGM looks for audiences to set their sights on Blink Twice when it opens August 23rd. The thriller marks the directorial debut of Zoë Kravitz with an eclectic cast including Naomi Ackie, Channing Tatum, Christian Slater, Simon Rex, Adria Arjona, Kyle MacLachlan, Haley Joel Osment, Geena Davis, and Alia Shawkat.

Reviews thus far are decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Late August typically isn’t fertile ground for fresh product at the box office. Blink face an uphill battle. It is slated for approximately 3000 screens and that’s more than The Crow is reportedly getting (2600).

There could be a close race between those two newcomers as I see both in the high single digits or lower double digits. I currently having this flying a little higher.

Blink Twice opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million

For my The Crow prediction, click here:

The Crow Box Office Prediction

For my The Forge prediction, click here:

The Forge Box Office Prediction

The Crow Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate Films is currently reeling from Borderlands performing a box office belly flop. On August 23rd, they hope The Crow reboot flies higher with moviegoers. Bill Skarsgård trades in the Pennywise makeup for the comic book based vigilante hero first made famous onscreen 30 years ago by Brandon Lee (who was killed in an onset tragedy during filming). Costars include FKA Twigs, Danny Huston, and Josette Simon. Rupert Sanders, who was behind the camera on Snow White and the Huntsman and Ghost in the Shell, directs.

While this is the fifth feature in the franchise, it is the first in nearly 20 years. Fun fact: Skarsgård is the fifth actor to play the title role following Lee, Vincent Perez, Eric Mabius, and Edward Furlong. The last two entries from 2000 and 2005 experienced limited theatrical runs before going the direct-to-video route.

1994’s original gained plenty of notoriety due to the death of its lead. It also struck a chord with youth culture and was assisted by a hit soundtrack. Fans of that picture are three decades older and probably have little interest in this long-in-development project which at times had Bradley Cooper, Jason Momoa, and others attached.

The marketing campaign seems muted. General brand recognition could get this to $10 million, but it may fall a bit under that. That’s not much to crow about considering the reported $50 million budget.

The Crow opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million

For my Blink Twice prediction, click here:

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction

For my The Forge prediction, click here:

The Forge Box Office Prediction

August 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Alien: Romulus will attempt to dethrone Deadpool & Wolverine after three weeks atop the charts while Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure looks to bring in youngsters and their parents. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Alien: Romulus Box Office Prediction
Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure Box Office Prediction

The seventh feature in the Alien series dating back 45 years should grind out a #1 showing if it manages to hit in the lower to mid 30s or above. I have it coming in a bit under what 2017 predecessor Alien: Covenant achieved ($36 million).

Deadpool & Wolverine would fall to the #2 slot in its fourth frame, easing somewhere between 40-45%. It Ends with Us, starring Mrs. Deadpool Blake Lively, might lose around half its audience in its sophomore outing after a spectacular start (more on that below).

As for Ryan’s World the Movie: Titans Universe Adventure, it’s a giant question mark. Based on a popular YouTube channel that attracts plenty of kiddos, I have it in the mid single digits. That would put it in fifth after Twisters. However, I do think it has the capacity to over perform. Or… it could totally flop. I freely admitted in my longer write-up that I’m flying blind with this one.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:

1. Alien: Romulus

Predicted Gross: $35.2 million

2. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $29.5 million

3. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

4. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (August 9-11)

Despite a serious challenge, the MCU reigned supreme as Deadpool & Wolverine took in $53.7 million for three in a row. That figure is beyond my $49.6 million prediction as this has banked $493 million domestically so far. Worldwide it has already scored a billion bucks.

As mentioned, It Ends with Us began with a terrific premiere. Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, it was runner-up with a cool $50 million (doubling the reported $25 million price tag). My estimate kept rising last week, but it still outpaced my $43.8 million projection.

Twisters was third with $15 million compared to my $13.9 million forecast as the four-week tally reached $222 million.

Borderlands, based on a well-known video game series, laid claim to biggest bomb of 2024. With a rumored budget of $120 million, the critically blasted sci-fi action tale was fourth with $8.6 million. I was on target with an $8.1 million call.

Despicable Me 4 rounded out the top five with $7.9 million (I said $8.6 million) as the animated sequel is up to $330 million after six weeks.

Finally, M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap fell 57% in weekend #2 to $6.6 million, in line with my $6.1 million take. The thriller has made a so-so $28 million in ten days.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure Box Office Prediction

Based on a popular children’s YouTube channel, Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure streams only in theaters starting August 16th. Albie Hecht, once a high ranking Nickelodeon exec, makes his directorial debut. The mix of live-action and Japanese animation stars the real-life Kaji family led by Ryan, his parents, and twin sisters.

Premiering on approximately 2100 screens, I will make a confession with this particular prediction. I was totally unaware of the YouTube show’s existence until shortly before writing this entry. Its numbers are impressive. The channel boasts around 37 million subscribers, putting it in the top 10 most subscribed in the country. There are nearly 60 billion total views on the platform.

That all could signal a healthy opening for this Adventure. I do wonder whether kids and their parents will flock to something for an hour and a half that they’re accustomed to digesting in short bursts for free. Fair warning: this projection could shift over the next few days. The theater count is about half of what Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 rolled out with and that should limit the potential.

I’ll forecast mid to high single digits with an admission that I’m flying a bit blind here.

Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million

For my Alien: Romulus prediction, click here:

Alien: Romulus Box Office Prediction

Alien: Romulus Box Office Prediction

Fede Álvarez, best known for his Evil Dead remake and Don’t Breathe, takes over a classic 45-year-old franchise when Alien: Romulus touches down on August 16th. Set between the events of Alien and Aliens, the seventh entry in the series (not counting those two battles with Predator) features Civil War‘s Cailee Spaeny, David Jonsson, Archie Renaux, Isabela Merced, and Spike Fearn.

Originally conceived as a Hulu streaming release, 20th Century Studios rethought their strategy to allow a summer theatrical bow. This is the first Alien feature in seven years since Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant and the first since Disney acquired the property.

If Romulus matched the $36 million that Covenant started off with, that should be considered a win. I say that because the predecessor plummeted after its first weekend and grossed an underwhelming $74 million overall domestically.

I’ll project that this gets a bit under that starting Covenant figure as it’ll hope to have sturdier legs in subsequent weekends.

Alien: Romulus opening weekend prediction: $35.2 million

For my Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure prediction, click here:

Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure Box Office Prediction